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Ya know Dew, given that Iclusig has 2x the MMR rate of Gleevec inside of a year, one has to think that it is worth finding a way to control the AE's. That particular journey is still in its infancy and Ariad will be too broke to pursue the answer unfortunately. I believe front line is gone forever but eventual standard care 2nd line use will be worth the effort. BP effort.
G$
#ASCO14
EPIC and PACE abstracts essentially confirm very late line usage. Disappointing to me. This could bring us down tomorrow
GIST: Promising
AP26113: Promising. 6/10 Brain Met shrinkage
As of today...a wash to slightly negative.
G$
The most important piece of the proxy. Color separation for reading ease.
No cash bonuses to executives under the 2013 annual performance award program. Although we had achieved most of our strategic
objectives during the first three quarters of 2013, the Compensation Committee determined that no cash bonus should be delivered given the
adverse FDA action on Iclusig during the fourth quarter of 2013. As a result, each of our named executive officers was positioned below the
market 25th percentile in terms of his total cash compensation for 2013.
• No base salary merit or market-based adjustment increases for 2014. Notwithstanding the progress we have made in resuming commercial
distribution of Iclusig in the United States, the Compensation Committee determined that base salaries for our named executive officers should be
maintained at 2013 levels for 2014.
• 2014 executive equity grants are even more heavily focused on performance. Although we have historically utilized performance-based
equity grants tied to key milestones as an important part of executives’ annual equity awards, the Compensation Committee approved increasing
the proportion of executives’ equity awards tied to key performance milestones from 33% of the total award in 2013 to 50% of the total award in
2014. This very heavy focus on performance-based equity places us at the forefront of the market and ensures that half of each executive’s award
will be earned only if ARIAD is able to successfully execute on its strategy. The remaining half of each executive’s 2014 equity award is being
delivered in time-based restricted stock units vesting in equal installments over the next three years.
Denner isnt the only one. Proven guys like Hugh Cole wouldnt leave a seemingly great position at Shire to come to a company with no future.
To me Iclusig in CML is a lost opportunity and should be discounted entirely as a viable revenue stream. No sense in beating a dead horse. Iclusig in other indications and 113 will take time to play out. Not everyone can afford to wait 2 years but I would bet my last dollar that both drugs will find their way.
G$
Just as a correction, Dr Denner doesnt own 12% of Ariad, he owns 12m shares or 6.4%. Still decent though.
G$
Okay lax. Have a good night.
ok. Looks like basic math to me.
He isn't here for the long term and he isn't hear for the 75,000 share grant that vests over 4 years that he gets for being on the board. He is on the board because he owns 12% of the company and has one purpose to guarantee the success of his investement.
And you think that a one time 75k share grant is all he gets from being on the board?...lol. He isnt leaving at $6 or $12 or even $15. Ariad is a $50 stock....in 5 years.....and that is why he is on the board.
I will agree with you that if he leaves, Ariad is finished. I dont see how that is possible though.
As for your assertion that the only way I can make money is to wait, I disagree. I'd take 12 bucks a share today which is an easily obtainable value
With all due respect, 12 bucks before 2016 is delusional.
Sure his investment is in the green. How could it not be when it was a freebie perk of being a board member. Board membership is essentially free money....until he leaves, which is never or until the company goes belly up which isnt the case here.
Secondly, of course he isnt a mutual fund. He is again, a board member. There is no comparison between the two...at all. He has no responsibility to anyone but Ariad shareholders in this case.
And lastly, if you cant wait for 2 years then you may as well find different pastures cuz success aint gonna happen inside of that time frame.
G$
Dr. Denner isnt bailing and wont bail any time soon. That is irrational,paranoid thought. The story could change in 2 years, but why would a guy like that give up the large $$ he is essentially doing nothing for except showing up to occasional meetings and making a few phone calls?
Everyone needs to go to sleep until 2016 when ARIA rides again.
Regards,
G$
Of course it never would have included Dr. Denner as he is not an executive in the company
The only way to know br is to make sure that particular question comes up at the CC next week or whenever. HB will lie. So whatever he says you know it is the exact opposite.
Btw, I wouldnt short from here and I believe that once HB goes we are off to the races...anyone who doesnt think so is simply irrational. HB = probably great science guy. HB also = second rate untrustworthy business mind. No rocket science needed. Simply look at the history.
As far as losses, I have never lost a dollar in Ariad and to the contrary, I have taken nearly $2m in profit and still own over 100k shares. Most of the drivel on this board is from those high rollers that own a few thousand shares....such as yourself.
G$
pcrutch brought up a good point. The patient pool needed to enroll the 113 trial is now, or will be significantly smaller given the new drug on the market. Could be nearly impossible now. We shall see I guess.
G$
The NVS ceritinib(sp) approval today 4 months ahead of PDUFA sked drives yet another nail in the ARIA coffin. I would guess semi-large red tomorrow.
Don't know lax. Just goes to show you that only 3-4 of us on this thread are actually keeping up with the company in general.
G$
Oh sorry, he reports to the BoD
He reports to HB most likely not directly to the board.
And one more time....Cole was not appointed to the BoD.
Nice catch vid.....SERE school was earlier and I had a flashback :}
G$
I also recognize there's the obvious, and then there is reality. HB is well protected. How do you propose we replace him?
Founders tend to be well protected, they set themselves up intentionally. But sooner or later the old guard goes home and a change occurs. My pure conjecture is that Dr. Denner already had a couple of names on a short list when he took a nice stake in my beloved ARIA.
Also, please provide more about a post-HB Ariad regarding the solution to its financing, trial-holds, b/o possibilities, etc.
I believe that AP26113 should become the sacrificial lamb for BP. Make a deal that I believe warrants a 200m min upfront pmt with decent residuals. The BBB penetration of '113 is dominant to any competitor (correct me if Im wrong)....this justifies at least 200m on its own.
Ref buyout possibilities, there sure is a wave of new talent at ARIA with experience here. I prefer not to be purchased. If they can create drugs, like they elude to all the time when they speak, then the rest should take care of itself.
Partnering Iclusig wouldnt hurt, it would just give us a different business model of drug creator vice future juggernaut...
I could ramble but Im done.
Regards
G$
2da, gotta get rational. HB must step down.
There is NO OTHER PATH. For the life of me I cannot figure out how people here cannot see the obvious.
HB is simply a liar trying to figure out how to finish his career with a boatload of cash and bow out wealthy saying "I am sorry, I always had the investor as my first priority".
Gimme a break.
...and the very minute that HB steps down we are a $10 stock again. Those who think he will bring ARIA back are just being naive...his run is over and the sooner everyone understands that, the sooner we can all start a campaign to get him out of there.
$
can you smell the $7 offering?
So any thoughts on HB's cc with JP Morgan last Thursday?
I smell an offering if the meeting actually took place and that will cement $5 sp for at least the rest of this year.
Twitter is the source. Search $ARIA and decide for yourself
G$
I have always figured that we were set back 2 years with the news last October. We have about 18 months to go before we get back to previous highs imo. Maybe Dr.Denner will accelerate the comeback....
G$
Can there be this much hiring at Ariad?
http://tinyurl.com/lwd5ebs
I am happily surprised in the current sp given the worst 3 day slide in the NASDAQ since 2011. There is some strength here but news would be nice.
G$
Thanks for the synopsis 2da. I am not worried about the drug quality or the competition for Ariad. I believe that we could have half a dozen BIC drugs and still be an $8 stock simply because HB is still at the helm. Until he goes this is all just good news without any compensation.
Regards
G$
To me there is no help for the company if the partnership doesn't net 200m plus upfront. If they get that it will move the sp 4-5 bucks imo. Anything less than 200m and we lose a couple of bucks becuse there will still be a need for cash short term.
Notice the HB favorite or retweet
“He will be integral in seeking business and corporate development opportunities for ARIAD, including a commercial partnership for Iclusig® in Japan,......
This overly specific comment from HB smacks of desperation. Its just out of place for this type of PR imo.
Point it out 80 times, he is not on the BoD....he is the senior vice president and chief business officer
Second time you have mentioned that Cole is on the BOD. He is the senior vice president and chief business officer.
We have a financing event coming, and that will hurt us no matter how the money comes, unless it's a buyout.
I dont know 2da, I am hopeful for a 200m upfront pmt from a partnered drug...which drug I dont know but I am leaning toward Iclusig. It is after all a BIC drug in my opinion, it will just take longer than usual to pan out.
Regards,
G$
Great trades but I will take my LT cap gain rate over your ST rate every day all day.
forgot to add: who is the "full" now?.....lol
last time this happen was when it broke the 7.40 channel -next day run all the way up to 9.80 . Smthing is up
That doesnt make much sense given that right after it got to 9.80 it went back down to the 7.20's. Another poster mentioned first day of qtr buying and I will go with that...
Got it. Thanks for the reply lax.
G$
From ARIA 8-k today...
and final data analysis will be performed when patients have completed six months of AP26113 treatment.
My lack of knowledge in the details of clinical trials prompts this question..so apologies up front if it is unintelligent to some of you.
After the first dosed patient reaches the 6 month criteria...can the company begin looking at the data from that patient? Or do they know everything throughout the trial?
thanks,
G$
Although that is correct Dew, there was no inference to me being the first one to see the article. The question remains....
G$
http://tinyurl.com/ltfuodo
Any nominees of companies on the cutting edge of this thought? Or, is Lithium the answer?
thx,
G$
Still, I were ARIA's general counsel, I would tell Berger to STFU....
So here are a few (not all) of HB's favorited tweets (none of them in their entirety)...some odd stuff so enjoy them for what they are worth...absolutely nada except that no CEO in their right mind would acknowledge some of these.
*AMGN: MM- Kyprolis- CV event concern (believe this is where Tom Silver got his MM thoughts for the next drug)
*GILD: Article on Sovaldi pricing
*BMY, MRK, NVS, AZN: Leerink Immuno-Oncology
*RXDX: Seeking Alpha ALK space, ARIAD (AP26113) mention as competition (HB only favorite)
*PRAN: Going to zero on AD drug failure
*ARIA: Is ARIA a threat or opportunity vs NVS....LLY and GSK mention
*ARIA: A lot of hiring in January...looking for 9 Dir and Mgrs....
*ARIA: On long list of marijuana stocks (although Ariad not mentioned on blogspot cited) (HB only favorite)
*Peripheral Neuropathy skin cream (no ARIA mention)
*ARIA: AF worse than pond SCUM. FDA mention allowing Iclusig back on market. (HB only favorite)
*Article Nobel Prize winner: Cell communication
*FiercePharma article: Would ELY or anyone bid for ARIA with Iclusig back on Mkt.
*Accelerated approval pathway (JAMA article) lessons from Iclusig (HB only favorite)
*BMO: GIST 4th line limited potential (HB only favorite)
*Deloitte medical innovation article (no ARIA mention)
*Jorge Cortes interview on Ponatinib and CML
*Chartist info on ARIA above $7 (HB only favorite)
*INCY reports Inducement grant under NASDAQ listing rule. (HB only favorite) phrmwb.com/KYfJfA (hmmmm)
*FDA social media guidance
*New GPCR techniques