Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Are you F'ing kidding me? These prices are a joke. The company has $3M in cash today to invest in more revenue producing networks and the PPS hasn't jumped 25% or 50%? This PPS is a joke. I hope all of today's sellers choke on it when this thing is over 10 cents in a month.
A1
Where to?
This is far from what I ever expected to read in a PR but I'll take it. I was hoping for cash from SLB as the long shot but more to the point... what will they do with the $3M? Odds of dilution just went down... I like the idea of selling off the whole WISP business right now, not just 2 networks... the margins on the WISP are nothing compared to the margins in the O&G Division. Any one know what percent of the WISP revenues these 2 networks made up?
So let's build out some networks and buy some more MBTs with the money... just like we said the other day... this $3M doesn't look like much but I think this is going to turn out to be the pivotal point in ERFW's resurgence.
This money will lead to more revenues which will lead to more revenues ... and so on and so on.
So anyone dare to predict the close?
A1
I keep looking at that 200MA... it's going down one of these days. I can't wait to be cruising along the north side of it.
As much as we hate the MMs, some day they will work for the longs... but you have to have shares in your catch bag...otherwise you are a just sideliner.
Where are the drilling hot spots around the country...today's footprint... what's next for ERFW
Marcellus and Eagle Ford are hot topics in the news... does any one else have some new ones to add?
Can anyone explain why the new CTO hasn't be hired...it has been a while since MJ left????
Fridays are great for fishing... so grab some bait and join the party.
A1
Strange day... heavy on the sell side with low volume and the MMs haven't stirred the pot much... not yet anyway.
How many out there had a bid in at 2.6 when the MMs sold shares at 2.55? I know of some and the MMs ignored bids higher than the actual trades.... crooked. I hope someday when the buy pressure is on they skip over some ASKs and sell at higher prices so the PPS appears stronger than it really is.
That Fracking article is interesting... it does talk about Eagle Ford and how the number of permits is up 11 fold... so it looks like ERF's decision to build a network there will pay off. I hope they are marketing their new network to some of the other players in the region. There are plenty of big dogs in that neighborhood. GSFVF.PK has a new patent pending technic that is coming to Texas from Canada soon... it will be an eye opener for the industry when they realize that fracking can be done without the environmental issues. I keep a close eye on the Marcellus to see if ERFW is going to scoop up some towers there some day. There is a ton of activity going on there right now.
(OT)Baseball season is coming boys... Sox nation is pounding on their drums making all kinds of noise... time to take it the field and play some ball. Spring is coming.
Back to my snoozing.
A1
Tradition around here says that Thursday afternoons and Fridays are the best fishing days of the week...another week with no news means that the fishing is going to be real good... the MMs are going to stir the pot, so bait your hooks and take a little snoozer.
A1
I am with you... "I'll believe it when I see it."
I realize that negotiating with an 800lb gorilla like SLB is not likely to produce much of anything other than wasted time and effort. SLB's lawyers will drag us around the block and through every mud puddle for years before they get down to settling something.
But if it did happen... just think about what ERF could do with that money... it could all be invested into new networks and more MBTs... they could build themselves a "cash cow" and this PPS would be cruising.
Today's volume tells me that an SLB settlement isn't likely "any day now". So don't hold your breath.
I am a numbers guy... I just keep looking forward to each 10k.
A1
If ERF settled a $10M deal from SLB.... WOW! What would they do with $10M... build more networks, increase the footprint, build more trailers, hire a bigger sales team... This thing would rocket up to 40 cents in no time.
Now I am reading the words settlement and lawsuit... does anyone have any DD that can prove there was a lawsuit? I can't find it. If it is in litigation, a court document would show up somewhere on a search but there isn't anything out there. If it is in arbitration, would that show up on the web somewhere?
Why would that be settling something? Were there damages or contract violations?
Here is the exact quote from that Penny Stock Fever newsletter ... "ERFW is in settlement talks with Shlumberger on a mega contract. The chances of an agreement for $10 million or more in the coming weeks is high. A decision could come any day." Could it be that SLB is not selling their division, and they are negotiating a new contract or modifying the old one? If this is $10M for a new project, it doesn't drop to the bottom line. So the key word is "settlement"... that could be a number that drops to the bottom line...wow, that would be huge!
For the last year, I have suspected that the SLB deal was dead... a little settlement money would sure make up for some lost revenues.
Does anyone have a helpful link? I need more info.
A1
If I were selling out, you'd know it. I plan to own shares here for the best part of this plan... the ramp up to big earnings... and that is going to take a few years. From the bottom to now, that is about 1 cent to about 3 cents... not bad... but from 3 cents to multiple dollars, that is the plan.
Fill the catch bag and hold on to them until the market is right.
For some that is a double, for others it is a triple or four times their money. For others, it might mean making a quick 20%. I see a much bigger return here.
So once we, longs, see the bottom line turn positive, we will know that these low, low shares are gone for good; we will hope are catch bags are full enough and store our gear... then once we see the bottom line grow large enough to fund inner growth like investing in new divisions aimed at selling to some of the other industries with all new marketing materials, success stories and a new sales team, then we are on easy street. The numbers should start compounding, like a snowball.
BOL = Best of Luck (and can also mean "Be On Lookout")... BOL is directed to everyone, buyers, sellers and those sitting on the side line wondering if they should jump in.
See y'all mid day... In the AM, I gotta work some so I can pay the bills and have some bait for more fishing.
A1
I will state for the record...
I don't think CFP comes until Q2... but I think the Q4-10 numbers will improve enough to show that CFP is on the way.
I think 20 cents will be here with 2 things first, 1)the EOY numbers and 2)some meaty news (it has to include revenues, even if it doesn't show the customer's name on it)... I give it until April to see that CFP is inevitable... but it will require connecting the dots. The second quarter's 10k that comes out in July will be the proof. Nothing speaks louder than the real numbers.
I don't think ERFW will get listed in 2011 without an RS, so I hope it doesn't happen this year. I can wait for the PPS to grow in parallel with the company's growth, slow and steady.
I do think that the SLB deal is dead. I find it hard to believe that after 2 years of nothing that all of a sudden it is on the front burner again.
I read all kinds of claims about 10 cents or listings or 22 cents... we are only a part of the market... we are tomorrow's sellers... it will be up to today's longs to hold and pressure tomorrow's buyers into the higher prices. So without knowing how well the other longs will hold and how aggressive the new buyers will bid, I have no idea what is going to happen here... but I have spent a fortune loading my boat and preparing for a great couple of years. This business plan is solid... it just needs more time to execute.
BOL... time for me to hit the road.
A1
At $2 per share, DC and the rest of his boys would pack their bags and run with that kind of offer... all they have to do is prove what kind of potential this has and someone will make an offer.
I can see $2/share just in the O&G industry... so if they get some traction in the other industries... the price goes up.
Would they sell? Yes everyone has a price. DC has one and I have one. We all do. It won't take long for the Wall Street big boys to see through the trees here... this things can make a ton of money for someone.
But it is still too soon... give them time to sign some more contracts and create a more telling success story about how awesome this is compared to VSAT.
A1
No clue... so help me out.
To get a $2/share listing, the company would have to have an EBITDA of around $90M... so I can tone that back a little if the speculation is that much higher earnings are in the foreseeable future. So let's say they need to post an EBITDA of $70M and that would get people excited enough to think that even bigger numbers are coming... you think there is enough news coming out soon that will spell that out?
Don't get me wrong... I do believe the company has that kind of potential in a 2012, 13 or 14. But I can't see that kind of growth in the remaining 10 months of this year.
For $2 to hit in 2011, the company would have to spell out a plan that would yield an EBITDA of $100M within 14-24 months... I don't see it.
So can you explain to me how you figure $2 is possible this year? You can do it off MB if you prefer, at this username @yahoo.com
Maybe I am clueless... but if you are right, I am going to retire soon. I could handle being clueless and retired.
A1
The AMEX isn't exactly reputable and the other boards are just a little too far out of reach.
I am all for some M&A activity and eventually swapping out some stock. I think ERFW should focus on growing their business and their footprint.
If you think that a listing gets them higher prices per share, it does for the trading purposes but for a buy out, it won't make much difference.
A1
RS? Bite your tongue.
I bet they don't get listed on a big board.
What is DC's end game folks? He is around 70 years old... do you really think he wants to get listed and do MORE paperwork?... not me.
I think he ends up selling this off in chunks by industry or as a whole to a mega billion dollar company... Then DC (the largest shareholder) rides off into the sunset with a ten gallon hat in his brand new Caddy.
DC's job is to pump up the volume and show the world how good this technology really is. Traction and deeper market penetration will be the keys to success over the next few years.
A1
C'MON MAN!
On the Monday night NFL pregame show this year, each week they gave out "C'mon Man!" awards to the players/coaches that recently did something mind boggling or ridiculous... I have to give today's sellers the first "C'mon Man!" award ... but MDB your "$2/share soon" gets you one too.
C'MON MAN!
A1
These idiots selling in the 2's could not have done much DD... the penny stock fever report estimates that ERFW will do $30M in revenues this year... cha-ching! That puts the PPS over 20 cents by my calculations.
Enjoy the fishing.
A1
Two different stock pickers had ERFW on their list today...
Wall Street Grand and Micro Cap Voice ... today's list
Look for new names to start showing up on the board... it will be another strong buy signal.
How long until we bust through that 200MA? I have been looking at it way too long now ... wondering when... this week? ... next week? If we can break it with momentum, we could be headed to 6 plus cents in a hurry.
What is it going to take to get back to double digits and some? .... 3 simple letters... C F P
A1
You think now that we are back at 3.1 that the MMs have enough inventory and will let it run?
If there is news by the end of the week, we break the 200MA... no problem. This think is winding up for a real run.
A1
STOP... don't fall for it. The MMs are stirring the pot right now shaking out all the weak shares so they can load up their inventory...
Don't sell unless you have to... this is a strong buy and hold.
The MMs are pigs. Don't fall into their traps.
One the other hand, the anglers had better be reeling them in right now. Don't let the MMs catch all the good fish.
A1
If more people had done their homework this weekend, I think we would be well north of 3.2 cents with 3.4M shares traded so far this AM.
Let's see how the MMs either stir the pot or push the Ask up to see who will chase it today...
Great fishing right now... keep loading the boat. That 200MA is the next milestone to conquer.
A1
Don't bank on news too soon... There were weeks before news hit during the big run of Dec08 - Jan09 ... at this point, I am thinking about the close today... will the buy pressure last all the way to the bell?
A1
5 stock picking websites featuring ERFW
Monster OTC
Penny Stock Fever
Mega Stock Pick
American Bulls
StockMarketWatch(<-- read this link posted by MBD this weekend)
I am figuring more will be listed before long. We have seen this before and it happened when news was on the way... look back at the run in Dec. 2008 and Jan 2009... that is when 6 stock pickers were promoting ERFW. It took weeks for the news to hit but it did. So don't count on news soon.. but do count on a run as long as the websites continue to feature ERFW... it takes the newbies some time to do their DD. Today is just a new beginning.
4 cents? ... wait for the double digits and then get excited.
BOL
A1
This is not a drill...
Gentlemen, start your engines.
Let's roll.
Best fishing of the week is likely at the open here on Monday. I say that because the last time we had 5 or more stock picking websites list ERFW as a BUY, there was big news soon after.
A1
Someone is doing their homework... 400% puts us in double digits.
This chart shows that 3 of the sites had ERFW on the watch list Thursday night for Friday's action. Chart from Friday's close
Next Friday at the close, we will count how many websites jumped on the bandwagon. It pays to be first to the next place everyone else wants to be.
The band is warming up... its gonna be a kick-a$$ party.
A1
Those prize fish have been swimming right in front of everyone's nose for weeks now... and no one was scooping them up. I can't wait to sell these fish in my catch bag for 10x to 15x the PPS that I bought them for... LOL all the way to the bank. My boat's name is TWO COMMAS and it is loaded, not just for this week but this year.
The prize fish of next week will be the ones bought at Monday's open... if this article you posted gets passed around, the PPS will do nothing but climb, climb, climb all week long.
$10M from SLB !!! ... not in my wildest dreams... I thought the SLB contract was a dead deal because its COM Division was for sale. So much for connecting the dots on that one.
$30M in revenue... If that is an EBITDA of $10M (just a guess), that equates to 22 cents a share (at a PE of only 10; 12.5 or 15 might be more realistic for a fast growing company but I didn't want to give anyone a heart attack)... and that 22 cents factors in nothing about growth coming in the near future on top of this year's $30M... I'd guess we hit 40 or maybe 50 cents before the year is out, if the contracts start adding up...
This will make for some great SUPERBOWL PARTY conversation... talk it up fellas... this is one of those new high speed super trains about to leave the station!
Thanks for the post MBD... cocktail time is coming early today.
A1
You hit the nail on the head... the MMs control the action here.
All that we can do is tempt them with smelly chum and a sharp, well positioned hook.
As far as PPS guessing... it is always a shot in the dark... I base my 20 cents on being CFP and then looking to see what kind of earnings are possible here... In 2-3 years, the EBITDA could be $45M... at a PE of 10 that translates to a buck a share.... we'd all be making some money then.
So there is reason to be optimistic.
For all you anglers, there are several different awards... prize of the day goes to the buyers of the lowest priced shares traded that day. Give yourself the weekly prize if you bought some at the low of the week. If your catch bag is full of these prize fish, you will be rewarded.
Now back to the MMs,... with low volume, the MMs favor the buyers by "stirring the pot" (dropping the bid to shake out the weak holders). When the volume is high, they favor the sellers by raising the bid and ask to see if the bidders will start to chase their artificial "teaser" bids. So if a run does come, the MMs won't have much supply to work with and they will let it run north by north east in a hurry.
BOL to the ones with baited hooks and large catch bags.
A1
Been gone since my last post... get back to my office to see that my bait is plenty stinky and the MMs stepped right into my trap.
Hey sellers, thanks for the cheap shares today.
You need a hook in the water if you want to catch the prize fish!
A1... the EO angler.
MBD, My bait is plenty stinky, thanks... I am going to keep it right where it is for the MMs to come back to if they want it... today's volume is too light for me to change it.
Heavy on the buyer side makes for tough fishing... my boat is already loaded for a big payday... a few prize fish is all I am after so I can wait...watch... and Zzzzz
A1
Some of you must have a special fish finder gadget... I don't see the real activity here starting up until we get closer to the EOY numbers in March. If they are CFP, KABOOM we are in the upper teens overnight... if they show a revenue increase of $1M in Q4, then kaboom, we are in double digits overnight.
It would take a monster announcement to start the double digit party before the 10k... it would have to show huge traction with some $5 to $7 million dollars worth of annual revenues.
I think that is a little far fetched... realistically, I would hope to see a few small to mid-size contracts on the table that add up to those big numbers. With some good news and a good Q3, 20 plus cents is possible by mid April.
That is why I put the hook in the water on Thursdays and especially Fridays... that is when I catch something on the dips... looking to keep doing it every Friday from now until the 10k.
One man's trash is another man's treasure. The trash time starts each Thursday when there is no news and continues until Friday's close.
A1
The SLB deal is dead. They were going to be ERFW'S reseller of the services in O&G here in North America... it never really got going. SLB hired a big gun to come in and sell their entire communications division. As we sat around waiting and waiting, nothing ever happened. Finally, there was an announcement that said the ERFW could start marketing to the NA O&G industry on their own... that is when I concluded the deal was dead. --April Press Release--
Is this a good thing? Sure, now ERFW is selling at full retail to the oilmen instead of at a discount through SLB. It may have caused a delay in revenues in 2010 but if we could just get a little more traction (sign some new contracts)... we will be off to the races.
This is the way I figure it... anyone see it differently? SLB's name hasn't been in a PR for a long time... if it isn't dead, someone is dragging their feet.
A1
What is the difference between an idiot standing by the side of the water and a fisherman? .... it's a fine line.
We are not fishermen today... We are anglers... looking for an angle to make some money off of the MM's tainted games.
Load the boat.
A1
The best fishing around this place happens between Thursday mid-day and Friday afternoon each week.
You don't catch fish unless you have a baited hook in the water.
A1
Why did the rating change? ... I don't know but I can offer a guess or two.
It may have to do with the pattern of late filings with their 10Qs or it could be that ERF's accounting firm got the lower ranking based upon poor performances with other companies...
I wouldn't read too much into it. Top and bottom lines are much more important. Market potential, penetration, traction, new industries, strategic partners, new contracts... there are a lot of other things to think about.
A1
"I guess you are pretty excited about ERFW becoming CFP? "
UNDERSTATEMENT of the year... CFP means everything here.
On the other subject of accounting-
Acct. ratings for OTC stocks are rarely strong... Penny stock companies don't waste their money paying one of the big 4 for their everyday accounting... now, that all changes once earnings kick in... that is when you want to see them sign on with a reputable accounting firm... then they get the good rating.
So if that is bashing, what do you call the cr@p on the Yahoo board?
A1
Don't sweat the painting of the tape... the day was actually pretty good.
The Dow closed over 1200 and the S&P closed over 1300... oil is over 90/b ... so it was a real good day.
I was asked "off MB" why I thought that we would hit 20 cents in April... this will be repetitive to some... well... CFP is the key... in March we will see the Q4 numbers, and I am guessing that we will see a significant move toward closing the gap and becoming CFP. I figure it happens in Q1 or Q2 at which time the PPS should be trading somewhere north of 20 cents...
But April is too early for Q1 numbers... true... Q1 numbers will be out in May... but I am hoping that between now and April there will be enough news to combine with the Q4 results to put us at the 20 cents one month early; connecting the dots with all that info, it should be obvious that CFP, and better yet actual earnings, will be a reality for this company moving forward in 2011.
10 weeks away... at 25% green each week on average... it is going to a ton of fun around here... 20 cents here we come.
Whoa Nelly... don't forget that we need to read a PR or two or three that has enough new revenues to make up the gap... based on Q3 numbers I was figuring that we need to see an additional $7M in annual revenues to go CFP.
IMVHO of course.
A1
I am surprised to hear you ask that question when you also say that you aren't new to ERFW... the MMs like to stir the pot or test the waters by moving the B/A around to see what the players' reactions are going to be. They have been doing it to us for years.
BOL to ya DT3
I am digging the volume... is it setting up for another run...looking for a move here in the last 20 minutes.
Keep your cards close.
A1
MBD... this bit about the MMs is all so true. I have been playing with MMs for many years.
If I could add to the conversation... the MMs do "stir the pot" to create activity... and it usually means that they skip over bids and grab lower ones and sometimes the B/A on the screen isn't accurate at all. But the problem I have with your post, (which has been passed around several MBs), is that it sounds like a hopeless cause for the dumb money... your advice is to buy low and hold... it is no doubt good advice but let's talk more about how the dumb money will make money.
The main reason that the MMs stir the pot is to increase the volume. They make money as long as shares are exchanging hands. If the volume stagnates, their paycheck gets smaller, plain and simple.
So what has to happen... one thing is a surge in volume (no matter if it trades up, down or the same); as long as there are lots of shares moving, they make a bigger paycheck.
What we saw through the entire 2010 year was lack of good news from the front office and lots of bad feelings; because the front office made some overly bold comments in the past, 2010 was literally a huge let down. The MMs only recourse was to create downward pressure to keep the shares moving. The result is an undervalued stock.
Now the question is, why are they going to let it run north again. The MMs would prefer to be trading this stock 1) with the most shares possible and (what isn't talked about enough) 2) at the highest price possible... think about it... if an MM is going to trade 100k shares, does he make a bigger paycheck with a higher or lower priced stock?
Stock A is .03 cents... he buys it for .029 and sells it for .031 making .002 times 100k or $200... Stock B sells for 30 cents... he buys it for .298 and sells it for .302 making .004 times 100k or $400. Making twice as much money but consider this... the spread on the first trade was 6.7% and he made twice as much money on Stock B where the spread was 1.3% of the stock price. So it is very important for the MMs to keep the volume flowing and keep the prices as high as possible.
MMs do love dumb money. As an example, if you have an ask in there right now at 4.5 cents, you are dumb money. During the next run, the MMs can see the stepping stones that they can work with like that ask. They will give you your 4.5 cents when they sell it to a bidder at 4.6 cents. If you want to keep these guys honest don't sit on a bid or ask for any length of time. Keep your finger on the trigger and take advantage of the moment when you see it... don't let it sneak up on you.
So why is ERF going to make a run? Obviously it is all about news and performance... when it is revealed, the MMs can only work with what they have on their screens. The fewer the number of shares in the daily float the better it is for the rest of us during a northerly run... Simple supply and demand. The MMs will work just as hard to squeeze the most out the northerly pressure. They also love pull backs because that is the icing on the cake for them. Pull backs are more volume and a reset of a new base at higher levels then where they were before the run. False pull backs are another tool the MMs will stir the pot with. They are feeling out the interest level and the intensity of the supply and demand during the false pull backs.
I have seen this stock go vertical in the past... when the MMs read the news or the numbers, they will work for us. So buy low and hide your shares from the MMs don't let them take advantage of you. When you are ready to sell, surprise them with your ask. Don't let it sit there in plain sight for them to abuse.
GL
A1
EC... what I said earlier was "... high oil prices are going to pressure the general markets negatively until there is some sense of stability..." Lucky for us, I don't see any downward potential under $83/b
Too much instability on the downside would put ERF right back where is was in 2009... on the shelf. With prices consistently over $90/b, we are in GREAT shape here.
OT... read up on Gas-Frac and UNX. UNX is a drilling operation in Namibia. UNX just partnered with HRT Drilling... which wouldn't have happened unless they didn't have strong opinions that they would hit it big... it is a fascinating theory about the drilling on the west coast of Africa to find oil deposits that match up with ones already discovered on the east coast of South America. About 200 million years ago, the continents were connected.
Still OT... LP gas is the next chapter for Amercia's cars, trucks and trains, not electric. They can even make jet fuel by processing natural gas now. If you watch that video, you will see that heating, industrial and home will likely come from shale areas. There is plenty of fuel under our own soil... the big question is, can we get it out cost effectively and without screwing up the environment? GSF has a industry changing patent worth checking out... it is a new way of fracking.
Back on topic- Looking forward to the next few months here... the count down clock has been ticking for some time but I have no idea when lift off is exactly ... so I sit.. and wait...
"One of these days Alice... POW... right to the moon!"
A1
For those that have 28 minutes... this is an eye opener about shale. This video is a little slow but if you can make it to the end, you will see that Eagle Ford and the Horn River Basin are presently hot topics in the industry... and who is there? ERF Wireless.
That 200MA of 4.4 cents isn't even a speed bump. With CFP speeding toward us, we headed for the upper teens or low twenties.
By April, we should be looking at a new 52 week high. Do the math... that is about 25% per week for the next 10 weeks if you want to average it out. I am not saying that this will be linear... I am looking at where we are now and where we will be then. EOY numbers come out in March so this thing is primed for takeoff.
And CFP's target isn't the end of the ride but let's talk about that when we get there. There is so much more to this company that hasn't even been unearthed yet.
The longer that the MMs keep these prices, the steeper the accent will be... so hold on to you hat, your balls and all of your shares. We are going for a ride.
A1
From the last PR, "...This increased business activity has already resulted in a significant month-over-month Energy Broadband revenue increase which is expected to continue as the price of oil and gas remains high..." ... you don't have to read between the lines to see that the revenues are accelerating as we speak. The beautiful thing about a reoccurring revenue stream is that it compounds the top and bottom lines.
No doubt CFP is coming on fast... Q1 or Q2. If a new medical division is started, then it won't take long before the earnings per share will be higher than today's share price. Even without a new division the earnings could be that high. The O&G industry has huge potential when you look at the global picture.
Someone was talking about the You Tube tour.. those back offices are for a new sales team... do you think that it is going to be for a new division of ERF or is it going to be a new overseas O&G division?
The high oil prices are going to pressure the general markets negatively until there is some sense of stability, but the surge in oil prices will have a positive affect on ERF. From what I see, we are going to have a great week, as I can see another 4% increase or more in the oil prices ... the "maybe more" depending of what happens in Egypt. The oil traders are just itching for an excuse to push the price per barrel up over $100 again... this make drilling locally even more attractive... good for the longs here.
OT.. my other 2 O&G related stocks are UNX Energy (UPWRF.PK) and GasFrac Energy (GSFVF.PK)... all 3 are going to do very very well in 2011... IMHO
A1