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You are right - very active.
In for about another hour, then out until late this afternoon.
I suppose that the certain hedgers are either deciding to go into Friday's hearing with a Terminal short or are covering.
Like I said before, we may have a situation, where there could be 60 or 70 million shares o/s -- hence my earlier post.
Maybe we get 100 million shares o/s (40 million naked).
I've noticed that the algo. program still correlates the TMB.wt and the Abi-ABWTQ closing price (bids sometimes similar, too).
Big volume on Tembec. Lumber -- no limit on near month. Could run for 4 or 5 trading days going into expiry -- changes valuation. Pulp inventories still low as of end of Sept. Prices are expected to stay strong throughout 2011. 40% higher than this past spring prices.
End.
Share Certificates in the event of cancellation
As an FYI to LT holders: if the judge does cancel the shares as of a certain date, then post that date (if you still plan to retain your shares -- ie not a terminal short), then you will need to request that all of your shares be delivered to you.
IROC has acknowledged (as I am sure others will be forced to do so in due course) that market integrity rules were broken on the trading of this stock going back to 2004 and will play into any kind of future settlement.
Note the merger date in 2007 -- o/s naked shorts and other applicable dates discussed with the Executive at Abitibi-Consolidated).
Chercover's comments on the naked shorts and the failure of the SEC to enforce its own integrity rules back in 2008 will also be of interest and are at play, as well.
China Market for Canadian lumber will continue to grow
China trade mission
Nov 1, 2010 | In International Forestry News | Send feedback »
The Chief Executives of West Fraser Timber Co., Canfor Corp, Tolko Industries, International Forest Products, Conifex Timber left for a trade mission China on Thursday, along with other top industry and union officials.
The Chinese market has been a steady customer for our western lumber producers this year. British Columbia has estimated its producers had sold $342 million (Cdn.) in lumber to China in the first eight months of this year, up 71% from a year ago.
Ever since Russia decided to raise duties on their logs exported to Chinese sawmills, China's growing demand for lumber has meant
an increase in orders for Canadian producers. It is possible that Canada will overtake Russia as the largest lumber exporter to China this year.
As for us, the U.S. still remains our largest customer for our lumber exports, although the demand for Canadian lumber in the U.S. has decreased with the collapse of its housing market.
Read more about our exports to China:
China offers hope for Canadian forestry investors (Reuters)
For now, lumber near month up again
Last I saw was up about $11.
FYI -- Deloitte consulting providing more good stuff on Climate Change, BioMass and Abitibi. My friends and Patterson's continue to squeal.
Cannot post though. Will keep private until a much later date.
8:22 to 8:24 am EST Abi Bonds
Last Updated: 11/1/2010
Corporate Bond Search Results Monday, November 01, 2010
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Watchlist Bond Symbol Issuer Name Coupon Maturity Callable Moody's S&P Fitch Price Yield
BOW.GK BOWATER INC - 03/15/2010 Yes - D C 100.000 -
ABY.GH ABITIBI-CONSOLIDATED INC 8.55 08/01/2010 No - NR C 99.781 -
BOW.GD BOWATER INC 9.50 10/15/2012 No - D C 99.636 -
BOW.GJ BOWATER INC 6.50 06/15/2013 No - NR C 99.610 -
ABY.GD ABITIBI-CONSOLIDATED INC 7.40 04/01/2018 No - NR C 99.287 -
BOW.GC BOWATER INC 9.38 12/15/2021 No - NR C 99.250 -
ABY.GE ABITIBI-CONSOLIDATED INC 7.50 04/01/2028 No - D C 99.184 -
ABY.GF ABITIBI-CONSOLIDATED INC 8.50 08/01/2029 No - NR C 100.000 -
ABY.GI ABITIBI-CONSOLIDATED INC 8.85 08/01/2030 No - NR C 99.983 -
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ABWTQ 0.045 vs. Tembec warrants 0.405
Co-incidence?
Only Lumber: limit up - 3 futures months
Nothing else. No news. Technicals at an inflection point.
Enjoy your trades.
I agree Atlanta1
But I think we are going to find out real soon -- why this poster has popped up.
Yesterday mm's told us they wanted to take Tembec down to $2.18 -- which they did. Today, the algo signal was $2.11 (note the 2.10 to 2.12 range / ratio when ABWTQ was at roughly $0.10.
If it's them I noted that the mm's starting ratio (ing around) with the Tembec warrants.
Though, maybe someone is buying them both (or will make an offer for both). Tembec's executive team just laughed at their company only being worth $2.00 per share. Deloitte is telling everyone now about the value of Timber, under a Cap & Trade system (January 1, 2012). In writing -- and they will not be able to avoid it.
Follow the Blackstone - Dynegy chaos. Everything Dynegy's management writes to their shareholders suggests its blackstone or BK. Naked shorts were heavy onto GAP, and now they want to re-structure. Who is going to manage that pie?
PPT (real or unreal?)
$615 trillion credit default swaps market and reverse hedges are really the key.
Emailjanum -- are we not past the exclusivity date. I wonder if they really are expecting another offer, prior to the next hearing -- it would make some sense, in terms of the late day trade yesterday. If all of the facts are tru, share price should be 0.0008 by now.
Bonds still showing par (before manipulation -- 8:25 am to 8:27 am)
Last Updated: 10/27/2010
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BOW.GD BOWATER INC 9.50 10/15/2012 No - D C 99.636 -
BOW.GJ BOWATER INC 6.50 06/15/2013 No - NR C 99.610 -
ABY.GD ABITIBI-CONSOLIDATED INC 7.40 04/01/2018 No - NR C 99.287 -
BOW.GC BOWATER INC 9.38 12/15/2021 No - NR C 99.250 -
ABY.GE ABITIBI-CONSOLIDATED INC 7.50 04/01/2028 No - D C 99.184 -
ABY.GF ABITIBI-CONSOLIDATED INC 8.50 08/01/2029 No - NR C 100.000 -
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Saw your post and thought I would respond
I wouldn't read to much into it.
You may want to take a look at the naked short data to September 30th -- looks like we could have close to 8 million naked shorts by now on this stock hoping for a terminal short.
That said -- today's 5,000 small volume for a while combined with what appeared to be a mm pow-wow on Tembec the last 5 trading days is of interest. Tembec appears to be ready to sell their dam, according to scuttlebut on other BB's.
The big news is the Dynegy - Blackstone deal. Everybody knows about Blackstone and ABWTQ. Lots of questions being asked. Heard that if Dynegy goes legal from a shareholder perspective that they may be willing to take on the ABWTQ case, too. Harvey's testimony? Timberlands -- everyone wants them. Deloitte's people telling lots of consultants about timber and their value for Cap & Trade. REDD and avoided deforestation. January 1, 2012 -- lots of value after that date. Why does Blackstone want Dynegy?
More rumors about after the elction, Obama will be forced before Christmas to do something on Cap & Trade (legislative). USD is expected to rise big - time ont the news. BMO says they now expect the Cdn dollar to fall throughout 2011 and 2012. Canadian Gov't does not trust Geither -- they have their own plan to de-valu according to O'Leary.
That's it for now -- not around as much.
Softwood Exports to China Hit New High in August
By 250 News
Monday, October 18, 2010 09:51 AM
Prince George, B.C. – August will go in the books as a record breaking month when it comes to B.C. softwood exports to China.
The numbers show that 257 million board feet of softwood lumber was shipped from B.C. bound for China.
"August, by far and away, was the best sales month we have seen to date," said Forests and Range Minister Pat Bell. "We have already sold nearly 1.5 billion board feet and are on track to reach somewhere in the neighbourhood of 2.5 billion board feet in 2010."
Exports to China through the first eight months of the year are valued at about $342 million, up 71 per cent compared to $200 million for the same period in 2009.
An even stronger fourth-quarter sales period is expected as Bell will lead, from October 28 to November 8, the largest ever B.C. forestry trade mission to China.
The trade mission will meet with key government officials and pursue commercial deals with suppliers, manufacturers and building developers. Several agreements will be signed in addition to tours of new wood
manufacturing facilities, earthquake reconstruction and commercial wood-frame building sites.
"The upcoming trade mission will add to the growing sales momentum, keeping us on track to reach our goal of exporting four billion board feet of lumber by the end of 2011," said Bell.
------------------
Can someone clarify the Aurielus and Contrarian comment (meaning it's not over for them?)
Trade at the end -- looks like a battle between the big specs and the Terminal shorts.
Given that the Cdn dollar fell significantly today, along with crude, ant gas, gold -- it looks very interesting between now and November 5th.
Out for the most part tomorrow -- will catch-up at the end of the day.
I think that whole thing is so suspect
Lots going on (imo)
On TMB.to -- you have GMP and BMO buying everything (and I mean everything) in sight. You have our friends at ITG and Anonymous (likely goldman) using market integrity rules (by-pass) and perhaps naked shorting to control the price, so that it won't get over $2.11 for any lenght of time.
You have the big run-up an ABWTQ this morning on no volume (mm's let it go) -- maybe as some signal -- I don't know -- and now they are holding at at 4.3 cents (or there abouts -- on purpose). There is no real market for the shares. Let it drop to zero.
China Floods - Complete Summary
The re-build process is just now starting. Canadian producers expect that the big run-up in demand for lumber is just around the corner. Mills are starting to get lots of phone calls. But the process for re-building will likely take years.
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2010 China floods began in early May 2010.[8][9][10] 392 people had died, and a further 232 people had been reported missing as of June 30, 2010,[11][12] including 57 people in a landslide in Guizhou. 53 of the deaths occurred from the flooding and landslides between May 31 and June 3,[13] and 266 deaths occurred between June 13 and June 29.[14] 424 people were killed by the end of June,[11] including 42 from the Guizhou landslide; 277 more were killed and 147 left missing in the first two weeks of July,[15][16][17] bringing the death toll as of August 5 to 1,072.[4][6] A landslide in early August in Gansu killed at least 1,471 people and left 294 missing. In total, the flooding and landslides killed at least 3,185 people in China by August 31[1]. More than 230 million people[1][18] in 28 provinces, municipalities and regions,[2][4][11] especially the southern and central provinces and regions of Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Chongqing Municipality, Gansu, Sichuan and Guizhou, and the northeastern province of Jilin have been affected, while at least 4.66 million people[19] have been evacuated because of the risk of flooding and landslides in the latter half of June.[7][20][21][22][23] By early August, over 12 million people had been evacuated[2][4], and that number rose to 15.2 million by August 31[1].
Millions lack drinking water. A total of 1.36 million houses have been destroyed[2][4] and more than 97,200 square kilometers (24 million acres) of crops had been innundated,[19] while 800,000 ha (2,000,000 acres) of farmland had been completely destroyed by the end of June.[24] Dozens of rivers remain in flood, including the Pearl River in Guangdong province,[23] which was impacted by severe drought during the spring as its outflow was severely reduced.[25] The total damages from the floods were roughly 83.8 billion yuan as of June 27, 2010,[19] and over 275 billion yuan (41 billion USD) by August 8.[2][4] By late August, 16.5 million hectares[1] of farmland have been affected by the flooding, while 2.09 million hectares have been completely destroyed.[2][11]
In late May 2010, heavy rainfall caused a train derailment in Jiangxi, killing at least 19 people, and the closure of the Shanghai-Kunming railway line for 24 hours due to a landslide.
Many major rivers in China, including the Yangtze, Yellow and Songhua Rivers have been flooded to danger levels. The Chinese Government has allocated over 2.1 billion yuan for rescue and relief work.[4] The Jialing River, Han River and Huai River have also surged higher than warning levels.
-------------------
And then there is Pakistan re-building?
I suppose every little bit helps
in terms of a further delay. I think by moving the hearing up, they are still within the 22 day extension window for exclusivity. But they have got to be pretty close to it.
I do not know how much Court time has been alotted for the 19th. The post last night -- I read that as being another sub not under BK protection.
Maybe, Mr. Patterson is starting to realize that there is a better deal on the other side of the exclusivity period (awaiting). Lumber going up -- weekly charts. Pulp strong. And Newsprint profitable.
Stock sales first thing yesterday were likely because some of the back end pulp months were down -- fronts were up by not by the same amouunt.
Tembec -- management very quiet -- blackout period until about November 19th (year-end results). Being especially coy, though. Not normal for them.
Their LT debt was arranged until 2018 -- just like ABWTQ -- cooincidnece? And yesterday GMP was buying everything in sight. BMO still very firm on their $3.00 target for TMB -- and said very quiety it could go even higher. Anonymous still coming in to keep pace (at times).
I am out until Monday morning (though again only briefly). Not sure about Tuesday yet. Have a good weekend to all other caring posters.
Emailjanum
Do you have any thoughts on the Levin Group Objection. I note some interesting thoughts on valuation contained in their argument?
My question is why were they not paid previously? Merger was in November 2007? Plan of Arrangement for the Merger -- was JUne 2007 (I think).
Recall that there were something like 540 million shares of ABY / A o/s, at the time.
I am out for the remainder of today and only in first thing tomorrow morning.
I also note a hearing planned for just before Christmas.
Lot's of possibilities
Truth is I don't want to spell them out here.
MTLQQ.pk -- different animal (363 sale) -- but a variation on that may result.
Go take a look at the Dynegy situation for another take. Carl Ichan.
Truth is, cancelation is as of a certain date. At any time prior to that date, someone could buy the remaining shares -- no questions asked (no reporting on the 3%), then -- then suddenly make an offer to buy the remaining 10%, and take the company private (re-finance old debt and settle claims).
Naked Shorts could be very, very screwed (terminal shorts not so terminal).
Then questions surround the $130 million from Canadian gov't etc. My guess is that the deal with the Candian gov't falls through, in that case, becuase of Jim F. previous statements, but who knows.
Many other possibilites too.
imo, the key is the 30% that S/H now hold -- it is a hell of a block, with a hell of a lot of power, even after cancellation.
You can make a deal with whom ever, you want.
Volume Picking Up - House?
Anyone have a read on the House doing the most buying today?
I was trying to post a near-term monthly graph for pulp futures, but with no success.
Again, here is the link -- profits for all of 2011 on the Pulp side, which is about 20% of their gross revenues will likely be a good contributer to net earnings.
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_WP
It's now or never for them to steal it
Oct 13, 2010 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- 1146 EDT [Dow Jones] - CME lumber futures prices Wednesday are higher with nearby Nov up the daily limit of $10.00 per 1,000 board feet, hitting nearly a five-month high. Brokers say the buying is linked to large speculative traders. As of 11:50 a.m. EDT, the Nov contract was up $10.00, or 4.10%, at $254.00 while Jan was $5.50, or 2.05%, higher at $273.40. (LWA)
Contact us at 913-322-5179 or lester.aldrich@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
They know it and we know it. Share volumes increasing on Tembec every day. Tembec's volumes say Chinese buyers are coming now.
I'm sure that Seneca and Ichan's buying on the Dynegy deal with Blackstone has got these guys scared too.
You guys should read the part about S/H owning 25%. Rumors flying everywhere. My guess is that S/H own legitimately 30% of this stock. 8 million short shares -- not sure about the naked part.
Today, I read about A7P possibly doing a restructuring deal. Note that they were also heavily Naked-Shorted played.
Warnings in Canada now about mega Corporate Coruption in Canada -- Rosen, due to lack of follow-through by Marker Regulation and the OSC. Rosen on T.V. and Book writing campaign to educate investors that they have no idea what the world is coming too.
Many cases pending -- but a warning to investors that their is simply too much dishonesty at the Corporate and Board levels, especially with respect to Bonus and Severance valuation. Rosen says a significant number of Companies are not re-valuing assets properly in respect of the new IFRS Accounting rules and that investors will need to be careful.
---------------
Again, even if judge cancels the shares, you might get into a situation, where they want us to sell, but don't and then the price really takes off for whatever the reason.
All of my contacts suggest that it truly is easier for a U.S. and or Chinese Company to come in and buy the shares (re-finance the old debt), then to start with another Company fresh. The assets are valuable in other words, regardless of what Harvey says in Court.
lumber Up (yet again) - lots of skeptics
not sure how much is dollar related (in terms of futures), but cash is staying strong and producers are digging in.
demand from China looks real (for now). CCTV reporting that a re-building phase in devasted villages (outlying areas) may take years as thousands have been displaced by their floods.
Paula looks like it will fizzle over Cuba, but may still yet be re-born next week.
End of Day Market Write-up (lumber)
Oct 12, 2010 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- [Dow Jones]--CME lumber futures prices Tuesday settled up the daily limit of $10.00 per 1,000 board feet, hitting a 4 1/2-month high in the lead month of Nov. Prices haven't been this high since trading at $247.30 on May 26. Chinese buyers were said to have purchased more lumber overnight, and some traders found that mill prices now are firm at $250, and the Nov contract was well below this level. Even though domestic cash markets were quiet, futures were catching up as traders repurchased previously sold contracts and uncovered pre-arranged buying points. The Nov contract settled up $10.00, or 4.27%, at $244.00 while Jan was $10.00, or 3.88%, higher at $267.90, and March was $10.00, or 3.71%, higher at $279.50. (LWA)
-------------
Got your point -- but spanking the bid -- lifting the ask is how some people say it.
For me, the 8 million short is of interest, especially with higher commodity pricing for both pulp and lumber.
Lumber Headlines (FYI)
Note: at this point, it is unclear whether Paula will affect Florida next week. But if it regenerates and heads that way, it could cause some pretty good flooding.
Oct 12, 2010 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- 1046 EDT [Dow Jones] - CME lumber futures prices Tuesday moved up the daily limit of $10.00 per 1,000 board feet on a combination of news that China bought wood Monday and a series of chart-related buying points, called buy-stops, that were triggered as prices moved higher. It was not clear initially if China bought more lumber overnight, but China's mere presence in the depressed lumber market can spur some speculative buying in futures, traders said. Getting above the 200-day moving average in the Nov contract helped incite further buying interest as well. As of 10:50 a.m. EDT, the Nov contract was up $10.00, or 4.27%, in the Globex market at $244.00 while Jan was $9.70, or 3.76%, higher at $267.60, and Mar was $10.00, or 3.71%, higher at $279.50. (LWA)
Contact us at 913-322-5179 or lester.aldrich@dowjones.com
-----------
Out for the remainder of the day.
Lumber - (futures up, cash up)
Chinese buying again, -- Mills are saying 'pay up'
No inventory -- we are going to see a big run in lumber futures for likely the near future -- more profits for ABWTQ (in light of higher cash).
8 million shorts on ABWTQ -- do not know if this includes naked shorts now (in lieu of terminality -- cancellation).
Lumber News from today.
Note: that we had seen the Chinese in the market as of two weeks ago, but it looks like they are planning to buy in a big way now. Their re-building process is going to take a long time (imo). Then add in Pakistan re-building, and now Hungary and the U.S. Virgin Islands to the mix.
See below.
Oct 08, 2010 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- 1439 EDT [Dow Jones] - CME lumber futures prices Friday settled up the daily limit of $10.00 per 1,000 board feet after a round of buying in the cash market by China overnight. Mill order files for spruce-pine-fir 2x4s, the futures-traded wood, are extended, and mill prices are up. The cash action spurred futures traders to repurchase some previously sold positions, and the buying triggered some pre-arranged buy orders that sent the market to the limit. Calculations using the options markets suggest prices Monday could open $8.00 to $10.00 higher. The Nov contract settled up $10.00, or 4.48%, at $233.00 while Jan was $10.00, or 4.12%, higher at $253.00, and Mar was $10.00, or 3.86%, higher at $269.30. (LWA)
Contact us at 913-322-5179 or lester.aldrich@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
10-08-10 1444ET
-----------------------
Just checking in at lunch time.
Pretty much what I expected to see 0.0375 -- finishing up triangle pattern.
But -- that chart is pretty cool --- how were able to "post this" ?
I've tried for a long time to post the technical charts, but never could -- so I just posted the links instead.
------------------
FYI -- even if the common get cancelled at the end of today's session -- you will see a lot of people naked shorting -- so then who is on the other side of the trade?
1. mm's -- write-off to zero (terminal short)
2. possible takeover buys
Believe me if you day traders are buying 45,000 shares at $0.04 per share, that's only $1,800
Frankly, you can get better odds at the Casino -- red or black -- less time involved in managing it. And no traders' fees. Only the cost of gas to get there?
Lumber Gap up and Limit up
Since late yesterday afternoon, we saw a gap up in the near-month (s) lumber futures and then a Limit up (still around $10).
ABWTQ and Tembec were still following the same algo trading ratios that we generally have been seeing for over a year.
Fraud or hoax? Who knows.
The three day chart on Tembec looks positive and even the technicals on ABWTQ look fairly good, if it crosses.
Reverse in gold and crude and the Cdn dollar, I think, is a good sign, too.
I suppose we will see what happens in court today.
-------------
Out for the remainder of the day, but will monitor when I can.
Ergodoc and Emailjanum
I can always fax (if required -- after 11:30 am)
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BOW.GK BOWATER INC
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7.40 04/01/2018 No - NR C 99.287 -
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9.38 12/15/2021 No - NR C 99.250 -
ABY.GE ABITIBI-CONSOLIDATED INC
7.50 04/01/2028 No - D C 99.184 -
ABY.GF ABITIBI-CONSOLIDATED INC
8.50 08/01/2029 No - NR C 100.000 -
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8.85 08/01/2030 No - NR C 99.983 -
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Thanks for your observance.
I noted the same flurry occurred in the Tembec shares. Unfortunately, I didn't get any time stamps because I was out. I have no idea why these two stocks have been so linked over the past 16 months.
May be a massive con through the algo trading by the mm's -- I just don't know.
I am out until about 11:30 am -- another meeting scheduled -- so I will likely be in the dark for a while.
Anyone know why all this trading stuff on ABWTQ appears on the IHub board. Strange -- I do not follow any other stocks on the board, so maybe this kind of stuff appears for others, as well.
Thank you to everyone who has contributed along the way.
----------------------
ABWTQ and Steelhead Navigator
Take a look at the filing by Steelhead LP for National Coal.
Anyone see any similarities in wording?
If Navigator is gone from ABWTQ, then where is the filing -- or does there need to be. Steelhead LLC still different in terms of direct and indirect shares (I think).
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=7182784
I could be very wrong on this date,
but I thought the exclus. period ends approx. 22 days from the date September 24th, 2010.
That said, I believe that ABWTQ has flexibility until either confirmation date or December 31st, to pay back DIP (which they will easily do, due to significantly higher earnings (lower costs, future sales etc., etc.). Inclusive of the $130 million from the NL Issue and possible sales of ACH.
If the data holds true, then
one perception is that a 'Party' is buying the other side of the trade -- thus going long.
like I said before, you could conceivably have 60 or 70 million shares o/s if there are enough NS out there at a given point in time.
I would like to see the house data -- bet it would tell an interesting story.
Emailjanum and Ergodoc
Let's hope the run does continue.
Interesting, they have now separated two of the Bowater Finance Bonds (at Par)
Abitibi is still the same as before -- all at Par.
Wonder if this has anything to do with an expected revised POR.
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ABWTQ - at this point it is only spec.
There is likely some news somewhere in the chain.
It could be as simple as the judges ruling from this Thursday.
or, maybe someone is bidding for the ACH holdings of Hydro plants (to me, it would seem that Brookfield Infrastructure would be the logical choice, given the proposed / rumored deal late in 2008).
or maye Fairfax realizes that they can't win -- so they may as well buy more, then convert their existing debt to shares and buy up the assets outright.
or maybe it is just a bunch of yahoo traders surprising the mm's with $50,000 and buying up a million shares forcing the mm's to buy-up their position again.
unfortunately, the way the game works -- we are always the last to know.
Ergodoc and Emailjanuum
Gotta love the small-time traders that come on hoping to make a buck on ABWTQ.
Hopefully they were smart enough to buy yesterday and sell yesterday. Then buy again today. Most are not though.
FYI -- for the past week, the trades are simply mirroring the TMB bids and asks and actual trades.
From past experience if things are going well at Tembec, Frank is out there doing PR -- and if things are bad -- Frank is out there doing PR. But, right now he is not saying anything. He has not sold any of his shares and none of the other big S/H have sold -- mind you they are in a blackout period for a while.
I suppose the mm's could go on like this for a while, until there is new news (good or bad).
Only thinking aloud.
Would not read too much into it, at this point.
What Percentage of the Bowater Finance Bonds do Aur. and Contrar. own?
Who holds the other percentage from an "investment" standpoint? (ie. not trading in terms of hedges -- cds or other derivatives).
Steelhead Navigator? Wish I could find Dav1234's reference to the filing by Debtor in which Steelhead responded that they were out.
Not sure if this helps
Try a search for 208 directly. All of the documents came up. Clicked on the first one only -- document was long.
There was an updated Adobe software that came out within the last 10 days -- not sure if that wouild make a difference, though.
Re-Print(Naked Sh - Terminal Short from Sept 15th
KFC44 Share Wednesday, September 15, 2010 1:01:18 PM
Re: utmostbastard post# 22700 Post # of 23052
Here's a thought on Current Situation
Taking a late lunch - on the road -- but I think this is valuable information, so I will post.
Note: SEC has now admitted that Illegal Naked Shorting Exists.
Note Chart for ABWTQ
ABITIBIBOWATER INCORPORATED $ 0.02
ABWTQ 0.00
Daily Short Sale Volume - NEW
view
Short Interest (Shares Short) 1,499,900
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 6.2
Short Percent of Float view
Naked Short Selling List - NEW
view *******************************
Short Interest - Prior 1,613,400
Short % Increase / Decrease -7.03
Short Squeeze Rankingâ„¢ view
----------------------------
From another board:
Facts: Shorts do not have to cover this one!!
30-May-09 03:27 am
1.) GM shares will continue to trade until the company EMERGES from Chapter 11.
In all likelihood they will be delisted by the NYSE sometime shortly after they file Chapter 11 and trade on the pink sheets.
2.) While in Chapter 11, whether the bondholders buy into the new deal or not, GM will continue to operate, almost as normal, while it begins to implement the changes that the government and consultants have suggested are necessary to perhaps be successful in the future.
3.) The Chapter 11 will take anywhere from 3 months to 18 months to be completely resolved and when it is resolved the company will EMERGE and ALL OF THE CURRENT SHARES WILL BE CANCELLED.
4.) There will be nothing given in return for the cancelled shares.
5.) If someone is short the stock there will be no need for them to "cover" their short position, only file copies of the reorganization plan with their broker and any margin held against the position will be released (this is called a terminal short.)
6.) There will be tax due for the profits on the short position, even if never formally covered by a trade. The profit will be deemed to have occurred on the day the company emerges and the shares are cancelled.
7.) Between now and then the stock will continue to trade and may spike up and down for a variety of reasons such as:
a.) People who have held for a long time figuring, "how much more can I lose" and thus NOT selling. The obvious answer is, since the stock WILL be cancelled, that they can lose whatever their stock is worth when they decide to NOT sell it.
b.) People who DO cover their short positions and are willing to forego the remaining drop to zero, so that they can free up their collateral margin, which will create some buying.
c.) Naive people who do not understand that what is happening to the company has no bearing any more on the value of the stock in the future. So even if sales fo up 30% while the company is in Chapter 11, the stock is still cancelled when they emerge. The reason for this is that until and unless the company can make all claims against it 100% whole (bondholders, secured creditors, trade creditors, union health fund etc.) Bankruptcy law does not allow for anything to common shareholders. In rare instances there is either enough in the company to leave something over for common shareholders (usually if a company files to avoid litigation) or to shorten the process (as they are currently trying to do with the bondholders) the shareholders are thrown a "bone" so they do not add more legal fees or delay things. That "bone"....if the creditors are not made whole, may not be more than an "out of the money" warrant to buy stock in the "new" company at a price which would make the creditors whole if the stock ever reached it and the creditors have taken stock for all or part of their claims.
d.) Hypesters and day traders who attempt to take advantage of a, b and c above in order to create a quick profit, or escape from an ill-advised position they took before the filing.
e.) Momentum copycats who say "Gee, the stock is rising, something must be happening." The response to that is to not believe your neighbor can really fly if you see him jumping off the roof!!
yld8041
---------------------------
So a lot of hedgers (knowing that the stock will be cancelled are naked shorting (terminal short). Zero out and they make $0.02 / per share -- no questions asked -- there could be 50 millions shares naked shorted as of the Cancellation Date -- these guys all think it is no risk -- now. What happens if there is a buy-out (on a share deal). Stock goes to $2.00and these guys are completely naked. Oh my god. OR the District Trustee says not good enough Mr. Managagement go back to your drawing board and find 4.5% for shareholders. Who knows.
------------------------
Re: Facts: Shorts do not have to cover this one!!
30-May-09 07:00 am
Great post.
A few other issues affecting price...
- expiring in-the-money puts requiring share purchases to cover.
- forced share sales when GM removed from various indexes.
- more gov't regulations of short selling.
IMO, share price should bump around for the next year or so, based on all these factors, ranging from $0.05 to $0.30.
sam8002bc
Thanks for your note about Smurfit
Emailjanum and Ergodoc
Read the dockets that you highlighted in that case.
Current -- thanks to In0ns for the article this morning.
Links -- please note all.
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20100927005502/en/American-Carbon-Registry-Approves-IFM-Methodology-Commercial
http://www.mondaq.com/canada/article.asp?articleid=109604&tw=7
More Background on the WCI -- many admendments since August 2008 -- but framework is there (below link)
http://www.mcmillan.ca/Upload/Publication/WesternClimateInitiative_0808.pdf
Lot's of people will be feeding us with good information on this -- starts tomorrow.
Note: Valerie Chort's Presentation on "Carbon and The Capital Markets : Governance and Disclosure (Partner with Deloitte).
http://learn.environment.utoronto.ca/carbon-finance/workshops/toronto-fall-2010/toronto-program.aspx
Ergodoc and Emailjanum,
I will respond by fax on this one.
Emailjanum,
Sorry, I cannot think of any Canadian player that would have had serious negotiations, except for Brookfield Infrastructure.
Example: a deal was expected with regards to the remaining ACH Hydro Plants stake (75%). They were rumored at the time -- and so they may have been part of other negotiations.
Certainly, Tembec and other Newsprint / Pulp / Lumber Companies had a tough time with their own credit (due to the high Canadian dollar and lower commodity prices) in order to pull something off.
The capital structure of the Brookfield Group made them the best bet from a Canadian perspective.
ABWTQ - Just checking in (away)
I am away for most of today and on Sunday. I will likely catch up on the posts for a bit on Saturday.
I note that Lumber Futures have once again gone "LIMIT UP" on the most near 3 Futures Months.
Written report says that FUNDS are now establishing long positions and that is overwhelming the market.
Not surprised -- a lot of commodities were pegged against USD falling -- demand starting to come in from China.
Lot's of trade imbalances around the world with China creating many "currency manipulation" stories.
De-value and create and artificial competitive advantage -- a race by all countries.
-----------------------
Not sure what decisions will be made today. I read Ergodoc's comment about "not today" -- not sure if this was a guess or if the Judge actually stated that there was simply too much testimony to get through. Saw Thursday -- was actually confused -- is this next week or a reference to Mr. Harvey's previous depositions.