is...hopefully making money
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Indeed, or intra-day shorting trying to put a lid on the run. Either way, all dips are being swallowed up and rallying right back. The move only seems to be gaining strength. Some big fish are in here and my guess is they have their sights on $30's and $40's. Unfortunately, that won't be confirmed until the buy ratings and subsequent price targets come rolling in and we'll be well on our way by then anyway.
If it were relative to FMCN's valuation we'd actually be talking $50s here. And that is if you don't back out their cash.
2,000,000 shares traded in the first 1.5 hours. Amazing. And just think, shorts only have about another 4.2 million shares to cover at this point.
OMG...Blew through $20 like it was nothing.
Perfect timing...623 Inter-city buses and 151 airport buses. That's a nice set of contracts. Speaking of 151...I might have to take an early AM flaming Dr. Pepper shot to celebrate the torching of the shorts!
Just imagine when GS is touting CCME instead of FMCN. Still too many catalysts in the pipeline to count.
$19 breakout! Judging by the volume already it looks like another break through resistance on high volume. New 52 week highs around the corner IMO.
I don't think there is enough evidence one way or the other to make a determination if Zach is short CCME, only he can clarify that. That said, I understand his general disposition about Chinese small caps. Anyone who took the basket approach has likely been badly burned several times by now.
I've followed Zach's posts in the past and he seems to be a very level headed and reasonable guy. He probably got burned by some companies that he trusted, which can be an eye opening experience.
CCME seems to be apart from other Chinese small caps and investors are sifting through the garbage that is out there and are finding that CCME does indeed pass muster. That said, the best amongst the worst is still bad in many peoples eyes, sort of an omission by association approach to investing. It just takes time to overcome that stigma and the vetting process is well under way for CCME and it is starting to shed that stigma day by day.
Up $.47 PM. Is today day one of MOASS?
I would like to see them offer discounted bus tickets on the SWITOW site.
That would provide profit sharing opportunities for ticket sales leveraging the existing infrastructure, draw a lot of traffic and brand awareness to the site, and provide hooks into the bus companies' business adding barriers for competitors.
Shoot, they have 200,000,000 by now.
Could someone that has a good understanding of naked shorting explain how many shares shorts could feasibly go naked on in any given day? Also, if the Lin brothers are selling into this strength, how much time after they sell shares has to elapse before they become shortable? Is that an instantaneous thing?
I'm trying to wrap my brain around this volume.
Looks like our dear friends are going naked. Maybe one day they will realize that they are pissing into gale force winds :) Today is not going to end well for them IMO.
As Fernando has mentioned before, they have expressed consideration for International expansion. I am not sure if America is on their radar or not, but some other developing countries with similar mass transit infrastructure might be a distinct possibility.
Probably not until they saturate the airport and tourism bus markets in China first though.
I've noticed the YMB posts lately. More quality than you would normally find over there. That is a very welcomed change. The tone seems to be turning for the positive all around. I think the shorts are starting to realize that the game has changed, likely for good.
That will be huge today.
That's great. It certainly feels like the steady stream is turing into a torrent.
I think a lot of it simply has to do with timing. CCME came to market via RTO and with very little publicity during the recession when institutions were more risk adverse and during a year when record Chinese fraud claims were painting the headlines. Couple that with a business model that Westerners are not familiar with because it hasn't been time tested in the US, and more time must be spent by institutions on DD. UTA is a travel service company. That is a model Western institutions are very familiar with.
Then you've got to factor in the persistently huge short interest, which inherently increases the volatility and risk, and institutions have to do even more vetting before they can take a stake.
As the company continues to make all the right moves for their shareholders and as they submit more audited reports, we are seeing more and more traction from institutions. Once there are enough on board for it to be clear to the others that this is a safe play, we will see a flood of new institutional money and we will never look back…except when we feel like being nostalgic and talk about the days when there were people that actually called CCME a fraud when it was trading at $17.
BTW...I suspect that institutions own close to 50% of the float by now.
LMAO....glad to see someone is warming up for the action.
The last time Cramer said that it was a buy and that he had been saying that since day one. Now he is back to his old, trusty response...nothing but BIDU. What a joker.
Thanks gunnar.
The Rev Shark article shows up under CCME on Yahoo! finance. Anyone have access to the full article? I wonder if/how he speaks of CCME.
http://secure2.thestreet.com/cap/login/rm_mbp_yahoo_bd.jsp?PPOID_1=400001&PPOID_2=400003&cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=PREMIUM&cm_ite=003190&flowid=119e76c91d1&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thestreet.com%2Fp%2F_yahoo%2Frmoney%2Frevsharkblog%2F10966541.html
I'm looking forward to a split once we get to a better valuation to address the low float issue. It would be nice for CCME to attempt an early renewal and formally address the renewal in a PR. That would go a long way for investors. I'm going to email Jacky to see if they have something in the works already.
It should definitely be game on come Monday morning. Resistance was crushed on 2.3 million shares. A PR Monday would really set things ablaze. Fingers crossed.
Thanks sfitz.
The shopping booklets will be divided into 3 types: Airport Buses booklets; Tourist Buses booklets; Long Distance Buses booklets.
What's interesting about this is it implies that the tourist bus business is closer than I anticipated and may even have a material effect on the business in 2011. As more news unfolds about that segment, the wild card effect will only accelerate. The standard deviation for any forecasts is going to have to be very large to account for all of the growth silos, and CCME continues to provide a lot of flexibility to answer the question "where is the growth going to come over the next few years?"
Volume is insane. It's looking like another 2 million+ volume day today. This thing is about to boil over.
Yeah, I was being a bit facetious - but like you said, what else can they do to prove they are legitimate? Does Jacky have to invite every investor over to his house for dinner and then give them a nickel tour of all 26k busses?
-Deloitte
-Starr (x2)
-NASDAQ Global Select (and rang the friggen opening bell, how many pump-and-dumps have done that?)
-Dividend
-Global Hunter
-Rounds of earnings to pour over
-Fernando's visit :)
I’ll be happy when the legitimacy “debate,” though I cringe even calling it that, is laid to rest.
LOL - I know this is my #1 reason for owning CCME :)
•Quality evaluation from Danduedil67 on I-Hub;
http://seekingalpha.com/article/245216-portfolio-strategy-including-the-two-best-stocks-in-the-world?source=yahoo
Traderfan, regardless of institutional investor’s potential concerns regarding whether CCME is the real deal or not, keep in mind that there is a huge profit motive for whoever is first in the action. That profit motive is definitely compelling enough for large investors to at least begin the DD process. We've already seen the starter positions from MS and GS, so there is reason to believe that DD process is well underway now. My take is that a MS or GS is going to take the requisite time to fully vet a Chinese RTO that is being heavily shorted because their reputation is worth more than they could ever make in CCME, so they will want it clearly documented that they did their homework. That’s going to take some time, but a lot of time has already passed, so I’m banking on coverage soon.
When coverage comes it will be the final validation for anyone that still may have a shred of doubt. WHEN that happens, I'll be happy to see the word "legitimate" dropped from the board's vernacular because it nauseates me :)
Arguing about CCME's legitimacy feels like arguing with someone that the earth is round. It just shouldn't happen in this day and age.
Yes, that is the one.
Possibly that stupid....or....I read an interesting post on YMB that made a simple, yet possibly very relevant point - Some hedge funds obviously have insanely deep pockets, leveraging billions, and aren't overly concerned with one failed short attempt, so long as some of their others hit. They may not be phased by committing $50 million to shorting CCME if they feel that there is a good chance that other bets will more than offset their CCME losses, should they lose.
Further, the longer they can draw this out with their seemingly endless resources, the more time they have to be right if the market does correct or whatever they are waiting for. Of course, the opposite is also true, that also means the more time for CCME to become more and more attractive to equally deep pockets on the long side.
This may not seem like a revelation to anyone else, but I guess I didn't think about the shorting possibly being the work of someone so large that they really aren't losing any sleep because this investment is just a drop in the bucket for them. I always pictured in my mind's eye some guy or group of people who were "all in" against us.
A large short may have just picket a convenient Chinese RTO to short and felt CCME, with it's too good to be true stigma, would work just fine for them...and it is nothing more than that.
Agreed. And the price that we pay for making money is the stress of often being early to the party and having a boat load of money parked until the manipulators are done doing what they do to load up and then, and only then, letting it run.
We know that all we can do at this point is speculate, but IMO it stands to reason that because the shorts are so heavily committed, they are going to do everything that they can to keep the lid on CCME until whatever they are betting on happens, such as a major market correction or China inflation issues, etc. Time is not on their side, but then again I would have guessed that they would have been steamrolled by now after a 2.3 million volume day. Guess I under estimated the depth of their resolve.
IMO it is highly unlikely that this is retail or institutions dumping...not with all of the positive news lately.
This isn't directed at Pedro, but I do agree with what SaltyDawg is saying. Public companies that I have worked with in the past often had material projects and initiatives that they launched in which the communications to their customer base was lackluster, and these are the people that were supposed to be buying the products/services, let alone how they handled communications to shareholders. And most of these companies were solid companies with stocks that exceeded standard market multiples over time.
Companies do the best they can, but there are only so many hours in a day and their top priority is going to be spent running the business and making money. That said, I do think shareholders have a right to expect transparency, I certainly do - but I think the degree of transparency expected should be reasonable.
CCME has taken steps to show us how they are using some of their COH via divi announcement and new ecommerce/magazine project, an early view of their new business line, planted the seed for tour buses, set some expectations for growth in airport bus business, announced a 2,000 bus contract, ect. They have given us plenty to go off of, and we know more news is on the way as Jacky has committed to a 2011 FY plan overview.
On IB there are shares available again (after 2 days of no shares) so clearly some shorts covered yday
Keep in mind that those available short shares could have also become available if Lin is behind those 150k blocks, like the one that went off AH yesterday.
Yes, I do still think it is possible that it can trade above $18 on Friday, but it isn't going to ruin my mood if it doesn't since I am going to hold it longer than this week. My point is that you speak in absolutes and as if it is barbaric to speculate that it could substantially appreciate before the 10k, yet history has shown us that there is a stronger likelihood that it will move on no news as opposed to when there is news. If you recall, the last run up occurred over a span of almost two months, occurred with very little news during that period aside from the buy back, was prior to the 10Q, and it started selling off immediately after the 10Q. So to insinuate, especially with such a matter-of-fact tone, that the only way this stock is going to move is after the 10k press release seems irrational to me.
And since you know exactly how CCME will be traded and treated I assume that you loaded up at $7.58, sold at $22.30 and bought back in again at $14.36, because that is what I would have done if I knew exactly how it would be traded.
so I don't expect that we can be going above $18 by Friday and $20 next week. That's simply not realistic.
I don't think that is unrealistic, not by any stretch of the imagination. I'll be very surprised if we don't close out the week above $18. Don't you feel the trend that is gaining immense traction?
Nigel, it is interesting to me that you would pick the share buyback over a dividend. IMO the dividend does a far better job of validating the company and delivering value to shareholders. It will
1) Provide tangible returns for all shareholders through the deemed dividend
2) Attract institutions that only invest, or give preference to, stocks that pay a dividend - resulting in higher valuation and more stable appreciation
3) Validate the cash that the company has and the money they are making, since it is based upon a % of net income
4) Will cost the shorts money, pressuring them to cover and deter them from shorting the stock in the future
As per the buyback, there is no requirement for them to buyback and I feel that they have taken other more important steps to validate the company. I no longer feel that them not buying back any shares will have a material effect on investors' perception of the business.
That said, I would welcome them buying back shares at these prices because they do have a lot of cash on hand and I would like to see them further absorb the impact of the earn out shares and do feel that it is still one heck of a good investment at these prices.
150,000 block AH at 16.89....