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I'm with you on that one. I'm sick of hearing about the F's too.
I've given up paper trading because it's gotten too depressing seeing my paper account grow like crazy while I wait for the squeeze on CDIV. I say we ban EX and the rest of them next time they tell us how much money they're making on the F's. Either that or at least make them give the rest of us a dollar each time they post their results.
I personally wouldn't make too much of the finra numbers (especially for any single day). They won't show naked shorts and can obviously be manipulated.
FWIW, here's my take on CDIV today (and most days in general). There is certainly manipulation going on, but it's also not the whole story. You have flippers going in and out, people getting impatient and moving on, others buying and selling with no idea about the FLD, and all the other stuff that makes a market. I think we had some (albeit limited) selling going on today that was likely from people who got spooked by the goofiness on the yahu boards that was posted this morning, which by the way is stuff from a few years ago that Monk freely discloses and is no longer involved in. In other words, it was a non-issue, but that doesn't mean some people won't panic some and sell. It also doesn't mean that the MM's won't take advantage of that situation and make it appear worse than it is.
So what if a couple people bailed today. Good riddance. This isn't the play for them. After all, it was only a measly 200K shares for the whole day, hardly a massive race for the exits.
20100618|CDIV|88365|215765|O
~40.9%
You got it, BD...be interesting to see how low they are willing to go...doesn't seem to be producing much for them...but they sure are trying.
Sitting here at the W, watching L2 while my code compiles...fascinating to watch...ETMM on bid and ask...slowly raising the bid while slowly dropping the ask...they want to produce some trades in the low 30's or even 20's it appears
BillyJacksBoss (couldn't resist)
Hi jetpilot1101...assuming your question is sincere, I'd check out the following board: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=17872
It has a lot of information that will provide an answer to your question and help explain my the "publicized" CDIV short interest is so low even though the team owns way more than the float (i.e. due to naked shorting by the MM's).
Finra numbers for today...
20100610|CDIV|17652|74782|O
23.5% short
I agree that the MM's are definitely playing games. The games seem to be more apparent watching the trades on L2. I also agree that they can mess with the chart, especially in the shorter term. However, I think it gets a lot tougher to mess with a chart over the very long term (e.g. several months or longer), so I think there is some validity in looking at something like the overall trend of the A/D line for the past year.
But then what do I know, lol. CDIV and E are my first FLD's (and Monk told us in PHX that the charts didn't mean a whole lot for FLD's). Anyway, I think you're right about the past few days. Something does seem to be changing here. Time will tell what exactly that means.
Hi kando...love the animations (previously person marked you for them). I do have one comment on the A/D indicator you show for the 1 min chart: I don't think it means anything, and I actually think it's being calculated/displayed incorrectly (it's from e-trade, right?). Here's why...
The formula for A/D is ((C - L) - (H - C))/(H - L) times the volume for the period (where C=Close, L=Low, and H=High). For any period in which Close=High=Low (which is almost every period in the 1 minute chart) the value should be zero. In other words, the A/D line should never move unless you get an actual candle for one of the periods (which is rare for the 1 min charts with such infrequent trades). The A/D line should really just sit at zero (flatline) for the entire day.
Another way to say this is that the A/D line only tells you something when it is calculated for time periods in which at least a couple trades occur during the time period. In the case of CDIV's low volume these days, you really don't get any useful information from the A/D line until you move up to a 60 minute chart and above. If you plot it for 60 minute or daily charts (assuming we believe anything the chart is telling us with a FLD), you actually see it indicating that CDIV is being accumulated in spite of the gradual PPS decline over the past several weeks.
Anyway, I'm not trying to give you a hard time. I love the daily animations. I just don't want any of us ready anything into the 1 min A/D line, since it's not being calculated correctly.
Finally, if this didn't make sense, use stockcharts to plot the A/D line for different time periods, and you'll see what I mean (as stockcharts seems to calculate it correctly).
"If the stock is so heavily shorted and we own more than the float, why isn't this reflected in the daily/monthly finra short numbers and the FTD (fail to deliver) numbers?" is one commonly asked question about float lock down (FLD) plays.
This is certainly a legitimate question and is often used by the bashers and doubters to undermine confidence in the eventual short squeeze and the claimed share ownership of the longs.
I made a couple posts concerning this on the C*** board, which I'll summarize here. Note that some of this may duplicate information already on this board, but here goes anyway...
The simple answer is that the finra and regsho numbers only reflect shorts that are cleared through the DTCC. The MM's can easily clear short transactions (naked and others) outside of the DTCC to avoid having them show up in the finra short and FTD numbers. In other words, it is easily possible that a stock may be heavily shorted (especially in pinkie land) and yet have close to zero FTD's and nearly zero monthly short interest.
For some more info, here are a few links that explain all this in more depth (in you haven't seen them already)...
http://www.businessjive.com/ (similar to the deep capture link below)
http://www.deepcapturethemovie.com/
http://www.daytrader.com/forums/showthread.php?t=40140
Great post as always, Blue.
That's the best ploy I've heard yet to get person marks. It worked, I just marked you. (really, I did just mark you)
Just watched the video. Great link, Craig.
Exactly...just now saw your response after I posted mine.
Quick response as I'm about to head home from the W...
1 is a reference to having all of the shorts covered, not any individual stock (see the deep capture link for a better explanation)
2 is not an issue with CDIV as they are in an excellent position largely due to their current stock price. Many companies are driven out of business by having their stock shorted to 0. We've been preventing that from happening for the past year by buying the stock.
As far as what forces the cover...it could be many things...uplisting, good news triggering buying pressure, or (maybe most likely) one of the MM's turning on the others to avoid being left holding the bag, etc. The MM's really don't want the SEC catching them doing illegal stuff, so once the short position gets large enough for one of them, he'll likely turn on the others.
Thanks, FFSF...and I agree that we should capture some of these links and/or posts so that people can easily access them (and I'm not just saying that because it was my post ).
People keep asking the same questions or keep throwing out the same bogus arguments against the FLD going on in CDIV (e.g. "Why isn't CDIV on the regsho list if we own 150% of the float?" etc.)
Some more info related to the short and FTD numbers...
I think it’s important to understand that the daily (and monthly) short numbers as well as the FTD numbers generally reflect almost nothing about the naked shorts that might exist for a stock (or that do exist in the case of CDIV as is shown by the current Den ownership). The FTD numbers only reflect FTD’s that are cleared through the DTCC. MM’s can naked short and then easily “clear” the transactions outside the DTCC to avoid having these naked shorts show up in the FTD or short numbers (and therefore avoid drawing any attention to what is going on).
I bring this up so that when you hear certain posters claiming that the short interest is only such and such therefore the float lock is a myth or when they claim the FTD numbers should be much higher if the float was really locked, you’ll understand that their reasoning isn’t valid as they don’t understand how the MM’s hide the naked shorts.
An interesting link related to this is http://www.deepcapturethemovie.com/. It is similar to the link I provided in my previous post (to which this one replied).
Finally, a thread worth reading on this subject can be found at http://www.daytrader.com/forums/showthread.php?t=40140.
For what it's worth, here is a link (it's been posted before) to one of the better presentations on naked shorting: http://www.businessjive.com/
It's fairly long but well worth wading through. You'll have a much better understanding of why the daily/monthly short interest and FTD numbers are completely useless in indicating anything about the naked shorting of a stock, especially a pink sheet stock like CDIV.
You'll also be able to better evaluate whether the arguments of a certain poster/chartist are really valid or not in regards to the Den's share count of CDIV.
Hey chart-trader, not a lot of time to post these days, but I did want to say I think this post and the other one it references are great and all too true for probably many that are currently in the red with CDIV.
Hopefully seeing Monk back on the board and all the buying today helped eased some people's fears.
Congrats! I'm certainly envious of you getting to go full time trading.
And thanks also for your 21 years of service, Sir.
I thought this was interesting...some people have pointed out that CDIV moves in cycles. The cycles aren't exact, but they are pretty darn close. See the daily chart below.
There has only been one significantly declining cycle so far (number 2) and only two relatively flat cycles (4 and 7). The rest have all been up cycles. I'll point out that each of these flat or declining cycles has been followed by decent pps appreciation. Who knows what will happen in the next cycle, but if history holds true, it should be a good one (and should be starting any day now).
thanks...I'm sure she'll be excited to hear that request.
Very good, sir...and you?
Posting from the w*** right now, so don't tell anyone.
I was about 20000 posts behind when we got back, can you summarize what happened while I was gone.
Hey all, just thought I'd check in...been on vacation for the past couple weeks...not anyplace as exciting as Monk, however...my wife is originally from Mississippi, so we we're back there visiting friends and family (and the oil spill)
Maico, thanks for the response...we know several people whose marriages have fallen apart as a result of having a handicapped kid.
It was definitely a challenge for us at first as well. It's actually brought us closer together in the long run, however. I truly believe that my wife and I having a strong commitment to God first has made all the difference in keeping us together through all the ups and downs with my daughter.
I'd be interested in setting up a trading station.
Hi DOG, finally getting around to checking the boards after being out all day.
Thanks for asking about my daughter. She's doing much better. Without getting into all the details, she was born with something called Rett Syndrome (an X chromosome genetic defect), so her life has had a lot of big ups and downs and always will. It's a very debilitating condition. She is 7 now, but doesn't walk or talk. She's a generally happy girl but has struggled with very severe seizures (what landed her in hospice). Anyway, there's certainly much more I could tell you about her, but I'll leave it at this for now: She has been a very big challenge at times, but we love her and God has certainly taught us a lot through her.
On another note, hopefully one of these days, we can both abandon the w*** thing. Take care.
Hey CT, finally back to the boards...
I hear you on being burned. I entered this thing having been burned before as well and with my wife pointing out that if it's too good to be true, it probably is. :) I was certainly skeptical of the whole thing at the start as well (and admitted this to Monk and others), but I do believe this is a simple and extremely effective strategy if the bulk of the group sticks together and the company doesn't do anything to mess it up. It's not like a short squeeze is a new invention, we're just trying very methodically and patiently to produce one.
I agree that sometimes the enthusiasm goes over the top and starts to look a lot like pumping. I think you get a more realistic picture if you filter the excessively positive along with the excessively negative.
Anyway, appreciate your honest and open posts. Maybe we will meet in Vegas or at a Monkinar when this is all done.
I think you raise some good points, and I (at least) have no problem with honest questions about what's going on here.
I have no idea when or how high CDIV is going to squeeze, but I went to the PHX Monkinar, and one great thing about it was actually getting to meet many of the core people in these plays. We all basically hung out together outside of class, and knowing the faces behind many of the posts definitely reassured me that these were decent people and not a bunch of anonymous pumpers trying to get me to buy into some random stock. Building the trust to believe that when LG or ExB or whoever say they are not selling and buying more is tough to do over a message board.
I'm sure some of you cynics out there think this just a clever "support the pumpers" post by another pumper, but I can't really do anything about that. Go to a Monkinar if you think that's true (and now the cynics are saying: great, now the pumper is pumping Monkinars)
Right on, Sir!
Good to see you checking in, sir...hope all is well in Tokyo
Who really knows, but I think you're starting to understand the games they play.
Great post ExB...very level headed.
Loved the open today, a .50 print followed by a .32 (going to make a nice candle for the daily chart lol)
I think this is an excellent post (and Blue said something related in post investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=49042387)
Just to add to the thought...stop for second and put yourself in the shoes of the MM’s (who are a very smart and extremely well funded group with visibility into the situation that we on these boards don’t have, like a level 3 look at the market). They are professionals and do this for a living, and they are good at it. They are not going to just roll over and give up. They, in fact, are sure they can win this game. They’ve won it time and time again in a thousand other stocks.
So as a MM, what would you do to deal with the current situation (that is, being very short and needing to collect shares)? How would you attempt to get shares back? Take a look at the chart over the past 6 weeks to 2 months. How many new people have bought in during that time at relatively high prices and how many shares were sold short? A lot. How do most amateur investors behave with their investments? Love them when they’re going up and get sick when they’re going down. Most of these amateur investors really don’t have the stomach for this and will give up when bullied.
So again, what do you do as a MM with a great deal of control over the price action of the stock? Lots of things, but one obvious one is drive the price down--regardless of what it costs at first. Many will eventually panic and give back the shares. But dropping the stock is not enough in this situation. The drop needs to be as effective as possible and induce as much panic as possible. How do you do this? Make people doubt the float lock strategy. Get a variety of people to show up on the message boards and post anything and everything possible to cause people to question the strategy. Make some of it ridiculous, make some of it helpful, and make some of it ring true. Point out the valuation of the company and how this must just be another pump and dump like numerous other ones that have burned people before. If that doesn’t strike a chord, acknowledge the float lock strategy, but point out how it can fail if the company doesn’t play along and how no one can control the company. Whatever you do, make sure all of it raises doubts in the minds of the investors. Make the stock holders think that the float lock can’t work. Get them to turn on each other. Create enough chaos and doubt that even people that are not a part of the planned disruption get drawn into it and support your cause without even intending to.
It would also help to make the chart look a certain way so that the chartists will point out how the stock could and probably should drop farther. Make the chart look real so that so that it doesn’t even hint that anything is out of the ordinary, again causing people to question the float lock strategy and whether it is real.
Once you do this, people will do what they’re supposed to do in these situations, what the chart tells them to do, what any normal and prudent investment strategy of protecting profits says to do: Sell.
Your choice: Play into the hands of the MM’s or trust the strategy and hold your shares.
Someone should create an indicator that tracks basher posts and chart it against the pps. I'm sure we'd see some nice spikes in it before runs. It sure looked like it spiked today, so we should be in good shape very soon.
For anyone who might have been spooked a bit today by the drop, the short number for the day should make you feel better and ease any doubts you might have about what many of the Den team have been saying about this stock.
Regardless of how you spin the % short number, since it's above 50%, the MM's are certainly father in the hole than when the day began. In other words, forget the price. They are doing exactly what we need them to do. That is, going more and more short until the weight of that short position will force them to cover. At which point (and it's probably not that far away), even if you bought shares at .715 a few days ago, you'll see a very impressive gain (e.g. at least 5x and most likely more).
Cool...I was wondering if I completely misunderstood Blue's posts.
Hey wicks, enjoy your posts...but don't you mean BearShake for today (not BullShake) as they dropped the price to try to scare us? From reading Blue's post, wouldn't a BullShake be done with a rising price (i.e. like a fake cover).
Me too...that pretty much tells the whole story.