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IRA is a cash account, how can they lend out shares ?
CCME.
There are even higher open interest 2476 for December $10 CALL
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=CCME&m=2010-12
Is it a straddle strategy ? so they attack viamently on short side if no frauds found or company counter attack, stock will bounce higher and profit from either direction.
CCME
Looking at your excellent http://www.fixyou.co.uk/screens.php. when no fraud company, such as CCME, has lower PE than fraud company (or suspect fraud), one can see how erratic Mr. Market is. He is basically doing a fire sell!
Well said. There is no real short threat. There are real sellers from weak LONGs and traders.
Do you think short interest has direct corelation with PPS.
Observation points
1. CPIH, WWIN has large short interest reduction but their PPS dropped even more.
2. RINO has highest shorts in float, its PPS dropped comparatively less.
I wonder how much CCME's short interest increase relates to PPS drop.
TSTC. New presentation posted
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/817129/000114420410049183/v196565_ex99-1.htm.
Clearly stated EPS $2.17. Seems to me to signal that they are not to dilute shares at this time.
TSTC. New presentation posted
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/817129/000114420410049183/v196565_ex99-1.htm.
Clearly stated EPS $2.17. Seems to me to signal that they are not to dilute shares at this time.
Well said but not sure about yearend. All longs need to login to yahoo and reply to your video links so it will pop to the top of the message board every day and give them 5 star ratings. Facts will win out noise.
Gene,
I have uploaded my model here. Nothing new.
https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0Bx1PAGtqlPFEMDllNWUzYjktZjZhZS00OTY1LWJhOGMtNThlOTBkNDcyNjgx&hl=en&authkey=CKju-OcD
Gene,
Not sure your intention. Your model in general is right. But you understate CPM for airport bus by couple RMB, load 80% is low. It should at least pass your smoke test. If you short, don't see reason why.
IMO, More straight and accurate model should be based ad type * rate changed * rate minutes in the presentation in slide 21 (?). I have another model based on pricing. All three model add up for me.
CCME AD capacity is fully used. Its rev growth path is from CPM rate increase, aquisition and embeded ads or others mentioned in slide. Because aireport bus has such a highest margin, if they can increase more airport bus operators, they will do well.
wct,
Your posts are very, very informative. Thank you very much.
Would you have some overview about your impression of the conference, in particular about the leaders in the company?
What kind meals do they provide, does everyone eat well?
How do they address concerns/risks listed in GH's analysis, bus operator charging more by using bidding system ?
Any pictures ?
Second to this.
If neccesary, make CCME non-free board as well.
There were 100+ message yesterday. It is very easy for Yahoo board or anyone outside to click into this and reading any posts here. How much value does it add to discuss one event, form 144, with 100+ messages? Out of 100+ message very few discuss the new airport express they add in Changsha, and 128 buses they added in Jiangxi. Nobody doing DD on what impact they will bring to Rev/NI/EPS basis. Seems to me the energy and time is focused on wrong place.
R. curious which index put option has good co-relation against highly volatile CHVMC stock. I would not use HAO, FXI.
CCME Pricing details are loaded at http://tinyurl.com/24ztln5
CCME_airport_bus_pricing.ppt: airport info and 2010 pricing page 26.
CCME_inter_city_pricing: inter-city bus 2009 pricing per city
CCME_rate_analysis: Attempt to understand revenue breakdown and CPM.
Pricing info are from public source. Phone# in PPT is reachable for further research. Rate is charged monthly.
With this DD, no one should doubt their revenue validity anymore.
Inter-city bus pricing is from 2009. It has potential to grow. Their margin will get better with better publicity and CPM rate increase over time IMO. Certainly they have not run full capacity on them yet.
I do have bus and AD pricing info on airport bus in all 5 cities and every inter-city buses. Fernando's airport bus counts are 100% correct. I did calculation based on the pricing for each city. Q2 revenue is very feasible. CPM is a vague definition depending on what is impression in CMEE's term. So I can't reconcile them. I think CCME is real thing but a early stage growth company under the radar.(though $300m mcap) The day it reaches its 1b mcap will come in next 1-3 years
However all pricing info and presentations are in Chinese. I will pubilish or upload the file when I have time. (don't know to upload here)
Disclosure: LONG.
You need ask Jacky to confirm. I believe it is where the problem is.
Gene,
Are you assuming 10 minutes AD slot or 40, 15 seconds AD is repeated every break, every day for the whole quarter?
CCME,
Your viewer calculation is flawed.
1. It takes about one hour for passenger to reach destination. So every hour passengers SWITCH to a new group. You need at least factor of 16 for daily passenger volume.
2. Bus load is typically 85-90%. remember sometimes it is over 100%.
3. They charge premium for holidays or special event. Guanzhou is to be the host of Asia game. Likely they will get premium on AD rate. in a word CPM is just a starting point.
CCME, agreed about their ability to maintain their margin from 10k
The ability to maintain and enhance CME’s leading market position
CME believes it has the following competitive strengths that would allow it to maintain and enhance its position as the largest television advertising network on inter-city express buses in China:
· Early entrant advantage ....
· Long-term agreements with a large number of bus operators . CME has entered into long-term framework agreements with a large number of bus operators, enabling it to occupy a significant market share and to create significant entry barriers for potential competitors. CME has entered into long-term framework agreements with 40 inter-city express bus operators for terms ranging from five to eight years. As of July 31, 2008, the number of buses within CME’s network accounted for 81% of all inter-city express buses installed with hard disk drive players and 55% of all inter-city express buses installed with any type of television display, according to CTR Market Research.
· Scale of operations . CME believes it has achieved the scale of operations that is not only attractive to advertisers but also allow it to capitalize on cost synergies. CME’s network with over 16,000 inter-city express buses covers all four municipalities and seven economically prosperous provinces in China. The large number of inter-city express buses in CME’s network in economically prosperous regions in China has enabled it to attract a significant number of clients. During 2009, more than 450 advertisers directly or indirectly purchased advertising time on CME’s network.
· The sole strategic partner designated by an entity affiliated with the Ministry of Transport . In October 2007, CME entered into a five-year cooperation agreement with an entity affiliated with the Ministry of Transport of the People’s Republic of China to be the sole strategic partner in the establishment of a nationwide in-vehicle television system displaying copyrighted programs on buses traveling on highways in China. The cooperation agreement gave CME exclusive rights to display advertisements on the system. In November 2007, this entity issued a notice regarding the facilitation of implementation of the system contemplated under the cooperation agreement to municipalities, provinces and transportation enterprises in China.
Futher,
To implement a nationwide in-vehicle television system that displays copyrighted programs on buses traveling on highways in China, TTAVC is obligated to reaffirm CME’s status as the sole strategic alliance partner in documents it enters into with relevant bus operators. TTAVC is also obligated to notify and coordinate meetings with relevant bus operators to facilitate CME in the implementation of a nationwide in-vehicle television system that displays copyrighted programs on buses traveling on highways in China. TTAVC has the right to inspect whether content displayed on the system is copyrighted, whether CME performs its obligations to provide content and whether the equipment and systems CME provides function properly.
TTAVC is obligated to ensure CME’s status as its sole strategic alliance partner. In the event TTAVC enters into agreements with third parties to engage in the same type of project in breach of such obligations, it is liable for damages at ten times the value of the equipment and systems, which is equivalent to RMB40,000 per unit.
The chance for them to renew the "Sole" strategic partner in 2012 looks very good so far. By then, it would be hard for newcomer to gain this government endorsement. Even if bus operator likes to negotiate more, it will be confined within the contratual annual 10-30% concession increase. Margin will be decreased by certain percentage but they certainly can raise CPM rate to offset that. The key here is once they established the scale CCME are in great position to get more cost saving and bargain chip against customers. It certainly is not the case of degrading margin Q after Q.
In a word, possible margin decrease can not be a significant reason for shorts. It maybe a concern for institutional buyer not to commit large investment. but at this level, it is matter of time for some one to step in big and bid up...
CCME: Yes. The interest level is certainly increasing from institutions, not just the callers, but also in the real holder percentage and numbers. It probably will take them a little longer and more DD to make decision to buy in high quantity. They are climbing over this wall of doubt at this time. It will show up on the chart when 1M-2M days come in. For such a large float, we just need to be patient for a little longer..
2010 is only half. Why do you claim TSTC missed ? When was the last time they missed ? curious.
TSTC. If you look at quarterly EPS pattens for 2009, 2008 and 2007
2009 Q1 0.11, Q2 0.19 Q3 0.41 Q4 0.59
2008 Q1 0.08 Q2 0.17 Q3 0.11 Q4 0.32
2007 Q1 0.05 Q2 0.14 Q3 0.19 Q4 0.23
It is very obvious, most of TSTC's ernings come from Q4 and Q3. As they increase their guidance, I bet they count them at Q3 and Q4. This also kind getting interesting into how they get their huge AR. Q2 was hit with 127% increase of sales and marketing. These are the cost for revenues to be booked at Q3 and Q4. So short-term trader only focus on the big MISS may be "surprised" by huge beat in Q3 and Q4. This one is perfect for trading.
TSTC, One of the interesting things about Hospital is they run things like herds. One hospital likes it, the other will follow suit. Just wonder the margin via an exclusive partner..
The value proposition from WDFS will not only open the door for TSTC in US but also somewhat mitigate their AR issue in China. Unfortunately US is not a growth market like china. But one never know things will be different if doctors start complaining about their cell signals.
TSTC has been under the radar since its S1 filing. But it has been firming up lately. Risk-averse trader and investor has been avoiding its AR issue. With today's announcement. It has opened door to its growth in US. However with its repeated guidance upwards. It has its PEG around 0.21. very attractive in my opinion.
Telestone's WFDS(TM) Technology Wins First U.S. Local Access Network Contract for a Houston-Based Hospital
Telestone Technologies (MM) (NASDAQ:TSTC)
Intraday Stock Chart
Today : Monday 9 August 2010
Telestone Technologies Corporation ("Telestone" or the "Company") (Nasdaq: TSTC), a leading developer and provider of telecommunications local access networks solutions in China, today announced that its Wireless Fiber Optic Distribution System (WFDS(TM)) has been selected as the local access network technology application for installation at a Houston hospital. The project will be installed by a U.S. firm, Quell Corporation, who won the contract after successfully demonstrating Telestone's WFDS(TM) functionality to the hospital and other major U.S. telecommunication companies.
Quell Corporation is a telecommunication engineering firm based in Houston that specializes in cellular network coverage systems for hospitals, governmental buildings and school systems. In September of 2008, Telestone Technologies selected Quell Corporation as an exclusive distributor for WFDS(TM) technologies to the customer base in the Houston area. The firm focuses on challenging installation sites where cellular connections are weak or overloaded in the outdoor environment and thus have reduced signal strength in indoor settings.
"We are very familiar with coverage issues affecting a number of major U.S. telecom companies in the 3G/4G era and know how to incorporate all these signals onto a WFDS(TM) system," began David Ballard, owner of Quell Corporation. "Particularly in hospitals where cellular signals are interrupted by superstructures and reinforced walls near radiation rooms and sensitive medical equipment, relying on outdoor repeaters and boosters to improve signal strength was not a viable option and an indoor solution was the best option for the location. After extensive review and testing by ourselves, in addition to visits to Telestone in China, we have been very impressed with the functionality of WFDS(TM). U.S. telecommunication companies also found value in WFDS(TM) and we are pleased to report that as a result of using a WFDS(TM) system, telecom companies have witnessed some of the highest signal strength recorded in a public building environment. We feel that WFDS(TM) has a unique advantage in installations and we are actively pursuing other project opportunities for WFDS(TM)."
The project is valued at $2.0 million and is scheduled for completion during the second half of 2010. Quell Corporation will purchase WFDS(TM) components from Telestone and work with local installation companies to install the system, according to their engineering plans. Based on the success of its initial contract and cooperation with Quell Corporation, Telestone has opened a U.S.-based subsidiary to further collaborate with Quell Corporation and other potential U.S. partners on future installation sites in the United States.
"We are pleased to secure our first project in the U.S. market, which we believe underscores the value of WFDS(TM) for users in several key vertical markets," stated Telestone Chairman and CEO, Han Daqing. "The U.S. market is part of our growth strategy and we pushed forward with the certification of our WFDS(TM) system by the FCC in September of 2009 for this reason. We intend to leverage the competitive advantages of WFDS(TM) technology to capture additional market share in challenging sites like hospitals while simultaneously expand our sales and marketing efforts to other installation sites in the U.S. market."
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well said.
FEEC. It is all speculation until reserves are certified. Even after reserves, they are running out of cash and dilution is certain to come in many waves. To be intelligent investor, you can' guess their reserve number so invest after resever seems to be better.
Thanks for the info on MM. Are you eluding that selling off on HFGB were caused by MM ?
SROEQ, I notice their SPE estimate is based on higher oil and gas strip price. Wonder what is their break even oil and gas price to get positive cashflow given huge interests they have to pay to lender ? Also with the direction shift of oil spill on NOAA's trajectory map, it seems to going to hit their fields. Wonder if they will be impacted.
CCGY, my calculation is (0.35+0.357)/31.5=0.022 EPS. margin is slightly better from average 8% to 9.3% but they did a whole lot more revenue to achieve this.
see it now.
R59,
It probably won't take bribe to get this fixed. Since the worst scenario to impact revenue is far less than 5%. The notification was signed one week ago 4/19. Management could have started to take steps last week. Remember BSPM's headquarter is about one hour away from FDA office. Normal approval process is up to 10 business days. All these tells me, FDA notification is minor issue in local context, FDA enforcement is relatively loose though wordings are very strong. Company probably didn't feel a need to PR if not because of super-sensitive retail investers - us. However PR says a lot about their awareness to shareholders. think about SGZH,
Just called Biostar company sales department.
1. The story is news to them this morning but it is true.
2. The aggressive advertisement is the problem not the product quality. What government agent afters is about changing the advertisement. Same issue happened to some famous brand in China last year, for example http://www.kunpengwang.com/show-16983-1.html
3. They still can sell the medicine however they can not have advertisement until the issues are corrected. (This part surprises me because the notice says to suspend selling all together in Shaanxi province) Hopefully the damage is limited.
4. Shaanxi province is not the largest province in terms of sale. Actually Guang Dong Province is larger. (so at most 50% of all regions together)
Of course, everything must be backed by official PR.
Based on my earlier accessment of redemdy steps in last message, it should be back to normal within one/two months. In 10K, total sales of Aoxing is about 70% of total revenue. Stoping selling 2 months counts 1/6 of total sales. Guangdong is bigger than Shaanxi's sales volume, conservatively say Shananxi is 45% of Aoxing sales. We can reach 45%*1/6*70% = 5.25% impact to total revenue. Their low target 80M is still achievable. Current 20% sell-off is over-reaction. With more selling under $4, it should represent a very good buying opportunity.
BSPM, Interesting thought. I would think Shaanxi SDA can easily find Biostar based on approval# H61022832 at here.
http://app1.sfda.gov.cn/datasearch/face3/base.jsp?tableId=25&tableName=TABLE25&title=%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%A7%E8%8D%AF%E5%93%81
Since they didn't provide manufacturer's name but just product name, there is a possibility for your theory. Let us know what you find.
BSPM: more info
Here is the link about the national medicine regulation, which is one base doc to suspend BSMP's Aoxing within Shaanxi province.
http://www.gov.cn/ziliao/flfg/2007-03/16/content_552519.htm
My reading from this regulation are
1. No. 11 is about new applicatin for advertisement. It takes up to 10 business days to approve.
2. No. 21 is about handling resume after suspension. It takes up to 15 business days for government to make decision to STOP suspension after affected company publishes a correction notice in local media.
3. With above 2, I think it is very possible to correct the situation in relatively short time, say 1 month (?) if suspension proves to be real.
Here is the link from the provincial FDA site. It does not have the attached list of drugs. Since wordings are same from the secondary site. It adds the credibility to the suspension story.
http://www.sxfda.gov.cn/CL0004/14420.html
http://www.21food.cn/html/news/26/561194.htm
1. The suspesion notice was signed on 4/19. One would assume that BSPM management should have received some notification before uplisting on 4/23. However based on the fact that notice did not mention company name. It is very likely that BSPM management has no clue when the suspension notice was sent out.
2. The listed reason to suspend also indicates there is no medicine advertisement license# to their ad (?). So BSPM has to apply for their advertisement licene# (or write licen# in ad.) and some contents, then publish a notice about the change of their advertisement.
With these, not sure BSPM managers would be able to quantify the damage but surely there are steps that they can take to limit the damage to short term effect.
BSPM. The regulation is a draft which only applies to Shaan Xi province so one can almost safely say the suspension will be limited within the province, not any other region. BSPM 10k has no breakdown based on region for Aoxing. The regulation does not say anything about how one can resume sales with what kinda modification to their advertisement. In all, it is hard to judge the damage in short term or intermediate term.
One similar example is CBPO earlier this year. It dropped precipitously after short attack (with seemingly strong fact based blog) from 11 to low of 7.5. Look at where it is today.
Sentiment: I would expect a PR from the company about how it will address this and to what extent this will affect their sales etc. Short term it seems to be affected for sure but I don't expect a lasting, permanent damage at this time of yet. Again based the experience with CBPO, the selling stopped at 200MA. It seems to be too late to sell it right now. It could even be good buy if company handles it correctly.
BSPM. The regulation is a draft which only applies to Shaan Xi province so one can almost safely say the suspension will be limited within the province, not any other. BSPM 10k has no breakdown based on region for Aoxing. The regulation does not say anything about how one can resume sales with what kinda modification to their advertisement. In all, it is hard to judge the damage in short term or intermediate term.
One similar example is CBPO earlier this year. It dropped precipitously after short attack (with seemingly strong fact based blog) from 11 to low of 7.5. Look at where it is today.
Sentiment: I would expect a PR from the company about how it will address this and to what extent this will affect their sales etc. Short term it seems to be affected for sure but I don't expect a lasting, permanent damage at this time of yet. Again based the experience with CBPO, the selling stopped at 200MA. It seems to be too late to sell it right now. It could even be good buy if company handles it correctly.
Rames, Great effort! thx
CCGY, Do you have profit margin, EPS projection for 2010 ?
CCME, CKGT, TXIC, TSTC, LPIH, CBPO, CEU,CNYD, BSPM, NEP
R59, If you look at their two mines's production, brokerage and sales figure in last couple 10k Q's, you will understand why Q3 is low and Q4 will not be better. They are very seasonal and brokerage tons are going down. production is bound to be weak for Q4. I am not surprised.