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Hi Randy
Thanks for your response. Most of the studies I've seen tend to show a high correolation of inversion leading to a significant slowing if not outright recession. Would be nice if somehow we could overlay the sentiment figures with times of inversion.
Not sure about the 1990 period as I believe AJ said we were inverted ahead of that recession. I suppose only the passage of time will tell how this current period of inversion plays out.
Best Regards!
Randy how does that sentiment stack up in light of an inverted yield curve? In other words it would be interesting to see how well the data holds up during similar periods of yield curve inversion.
AJ these down channels look like they are in play here...plenty of room to run to the upside. I suspect that upper falling trendline and 20 MA's on the daily's will cap upside on this move.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=15&id=p37785788526&...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=15&id=p37785788526&a...
Commericals now their most bullish stance on All Combined Contracts seen thus far this year. They have been covering many positions the past week and are close to flat here.
AJ this should work well in that group...any other candidates?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=STI&p=D&st=2005-07-02&id=p37127375132&a=78796198&am...
SPX also at some objective support here with some divergence in place.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p40872929598&a=...
Jim does some excellent work. There are always times where uncertainty comes into the equation in anyone's work. That needs to be kept in mind.
AJ great work catching these recent pivots. I've always liked the way you've viewed patterns and possibilities. Lately those have all been becoming realities. Congrats!
The VIX looks like its setting up for another leg higher in time.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$vix&p=D&st=2005-07-01&id=p08917974499&a=49123729&a...
Euterpe...not sure what you are viewing as support in the 2100 area. I would not be surprised to see us head to 2025 price support to form some type of neckline in the weeks ahead. MACD trending nicely south on the Weekly on most indices.
2025 shows up well on this chart as the price low. Note the price label attached at the low print.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&st=2005-07-02&id=p68884926039&a=76310543...
Best of Trades!
Robb
AJ looks to me like we are just trading between the major MA's with the 200 MA's capping downside for the time being and the 50/20's capping upside action...very common back and forth action between the major averages on the RUT SPX DOW WLSH after such a long period above. I suspect the next test of the 200 MA after this bounce plays out will have the best chance of success.
Nice looking double bottom in place there Cheif...
Pattern looks like it projects to the 3,500 area LOL
LG good catch on the 50% retracement on the nose. I assume this is your rising consolidation pattern you were referring to.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$spx&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p43853933910&a=...
I noticed that the RUT broke out of a similar consolidation towards the close but the WLSH and Nasdaq held within their patterns.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$rut&p=60&b=3&g=0&id=p55712777694&a=53973011&am...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WLSH&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p80639215308&a...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=20&id=p91523881590&...
Regards,
Robb
AJ seems everyone is targeting that 1635 area on the NDX...my suspicion is we don't get quite that high on this move.
1634 makes sense as I've been looking for a move to test the declining 20 MA at some point. Very strong resistance per the Comp is in the 2215-35 area in terms of gap, proximity of the 200/20 MA's which are declining now.
Hey AJ...yes I was looking at that 490 resistance going back to March as a target. From there we'd have to see how things setup in terms of a potential inverse bottom. I'm seeing this setup or somewhat similar on many of the 60 Minute charts.
SOX looks like a bullish ending diagonal here on the 60 Minute. These can be explosive reversal patterns. Worth keeping an eye on the next day or two.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SOX&p=60&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p96089241926&a=...
Thanks LG...should be an interesting morning tomorrow to say the least...some institutional capitulation after the bell perhaps???
Agree the banks could take a hit if the BKX loses its support line off the October lows.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BKX&p=D&st=2005-08-10&id=p07141865468&a=74212598&a...
Some of the most bearish news has emerged in the many of the techs the past couple of sessions. Who's going to be next???
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060522/options_dating.html?.v=2
Speaking of which check out this bearish resolution out of a 4 year base/triangle in KLAC.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=klac&p=D&st=2001-03-07&en=2006-12-31&id=p8322440440...
SMH is in breakdown mode as well.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=smh&p=W&st=2001-03-07&en=2006-12-31&id=p99666202312...
As the semi's go so often goes the market.
BTW the SPX is nearly 10 pts below the 4 p.m. close...institutional sell programs kicked in between 4 and 4:15 likely due to the closing move through the 200 MA on that average.
Potential island reversal to the downside on the Nasdaq below its 2155 gap based on the after hours action in the QQQQ's.
Looks like an inverse h/s pattern setting up on the Comp 60 minute chart that measures to some thick resistance in the 2225-40 zone. The gap at 2188 may contain the right shoulder.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$compq&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=20&id=p91523881590&...
AJ keep watch on the SMH here...looks close to a move out of this triangle.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SMH&p=W&st=2001-07-12&id=p99736966994&a=70454633&am...
>>>>While the pattern certainly looked bearish, the difference is in the anchoring of the trend lines. I hold to a strict set of anchor and plot rules with rare exception.
I use the bar extremes and I use software that has a "snap mode" which will not allow me to cheat even a little and it assures me of accurate anchoring. I plot each chart as if I am going to risk my money using it, because I usually am risking my money using it.>>>>
LG I certainly respect sticking to a discipline to what works best for you.
Going back to that SPX wedge there are times where I find anchor points as AJ suggested not as relevant as where price reverses as in this case. When I see price respecting a trendline as it did here on 4-5 reversals that tells me that there is some importance (perhaps more than what might be seen at an original anchor point). The particular draw seemed to workout per my expectation but that doesn't necessarily make it a "technically correct" draw. Yesterday price respected the lower trendline in the pattern on the backtest.
Thanks for sending the link in your last message.
Robb
>>>PS: I guess my people skills can always use some work. I guess I could always bite my cyber tongue and not chime in with my opinion in an effort to help someone I deem as worth the effort. I think most of those folks over the years have indicated they benefited from my interjections, but there has certainly been those that were offended and some permanently.>>>
LG
I appreciate your feedback if its in an encouraging tone. There is certainly some interpretation in some draws such as that SPX chart that I agree with. That SPX draw was definitely a wedge and not a channel.
I also recognize your good call at the recent highs which is now playing out with some key uptrend support breaks (see 2 charts in previous post).
As I've said all along I enjoy your work.
Take Care,
Robb
Burk thanks...looks like some major trendline breaks this week on the NDX/Nasdaq.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NDX&p=D&st=2001-04-02&id=p16701419999&a=77134952&a...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=W&st=2002-01-02&id=p88140439955&a=48722333...
>>>>The bottom line is that I disagreed with your assessment. When I draw the trend lines the way I believe they should be plotted, there was no flag in that consolidation. So I did what I believe a technician should, look elsewhere for confirmation, like the SPX.>>>
I saw a bear flag in that 60 minute consolidation. That was my interpretation and it played out like a bear flag pattern in todays move to the downside. Looked like a slow rise/counter trend move which was characterized by declining volume with a slight countertrend up move capped by the declining 20 EMA. What I want to know is why you didn't view that as a bear flag pattern? What else did you need to see in that pattern to make it a bearish flag pattern? Looks textbook to me.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p87460938903&a=7...
>>>Now you can spin that anyway you like, but my point remains, if one draws trend lines with a degree of randomness you run the risk of bias entering into the plot. And, you run the risk of expecting something to happen based on a pattern that may not exist. Or you may be anticipating a price reaction with a tend line that is in the wrong place.>>>
Lets take my SPX chart which was sent to AJ yesterday and of course you found the need to chime in with this jab/comment.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=11136829
I still say this draw is valid based on the reversals within the pattern. It played out as if it was valid. Again you may not agree with the draw but it played out to my expectation...my interpretation.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p63873966240&a=5...
>>>The next time you disagree with someone's read or plot, shall we assume you are putting them down or trying to instigate a confrontation?>>>
Not true....I've had many disagreements over the years with AJ, et. al. but they tend to be respectful. You do some good chart work LG though we don't always agree. Your approach and/or people skills could use some work.
LG you really havn't changed over all the years as I've seen you often try to bait others into confrontation by the use of instigation, jabs, put downs, etc. Your track record speaks for itself. Its as if you find satisfaction by putting down others in order to elevate yourself. That is why I refused to respond to you some time back as I've seen your history.
T/A is NOT an exact science and is somewhat subject to interpretation of its author. And last time I checked you do not have a monopoly on charting regardless of what you think.
My interpretation of that pattern on the SPY was and is a bear flag...its acted as a bear flag and yes was confirmed by other patterns including the SPX. End of story.
LG sure enough a bear flag it was...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spy&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p87460938903&a=7...
>>>Plexxus, that "channel lower line lies at 1278 SPX if you connect the 1245 and 1253 lows. It's a parallel line to the upper line on that SPX chart.>>>
AJ I disagree with your take...the SPX wedge had 5 reversals between those trendlines shown below making them significant. Also note that as I mentioned yesterday the high was the backtest of that key trendline and we fell sharply today. There was no indication of 1278 being anything significant today as it was cut through rapidly. All JMO.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p63873966240&a=5...
AJS the SP 500 backtested its broken trendline today on the highs...there is thick resistance now between 1297-1300 that will need to be recaptured to turn the picture more positive. The SPX looks like its forming a bearish flag pattern on both the 60 minute and the daily with little price movement while the oscillators reset.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spy&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p87460938903&a=7...
Same setup on the Wilshire...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WLSH&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p66033427155&a=...
Nice broken channel backtest on the highs today and now reversing back lower.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p63873966240&a=5...
Dead you're not experiencing slow loads? I'm on a Cable Modem and everyone I've come in contact with lately have had the same problem with slow downloading of charts. God forbid if someone were on dial up.
In general I am warming up to the Stockcharts2 version but something needs to be done about the load time.
Robb
Marc yes I did see that. Looks like we're nearing a bounce point around the 2220-40 area on the Comp based on trendline supports and the 200 EMA.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=W&st=2003-01-02&id=p18722790679&a=48722333...
Also consider the NDX/QQQQ long term uptrendline breaks...and the SOX continues to leak lower after breaking down yesterday.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$sox&p=D&st=2005-06-23&en=2006-12-23&id=p5722917366...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQQ&p=D&st=2005-03-07&id=p76590318627&a=72245022&a...
Hi AJS...Given that we took out both 2300 and 1315 I wouldn't be surprised to see a move down to/near the 200 MA on the Comp...note how once we broke through our long term uptrendline off the October lows we came back up on a backtest and are now breaking through the 2300 area....also that pattern at the top sort of has that h/s potential which measures to/near the 200 day. My thinking is that any bounce back up to/near that 2300 area will be another good shorting opportunity.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&st=2005-07-02&id=p71750773255&a=76310543...
Hi Euterpe1...
I was wondering if you or anyone else have a list of symbols that correspond to trading specific sectors. I am familiar with what is offered by the AMEX per Power Shares/Vipers/ETF's, etc.
I know you tend to trade sectors and was wondering what you use to trade them. Two that I am looking at here are these below.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XNG&p=D&st=2005-04-07&id=p40337128150&a=73655425&a...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$djaig&p=D&st=2005-05-05&en=2006-12-31&id=p44862557...
Thanks for any help.
Hi Burk
We've got some pretty strong supports not far below current levels namely 1680 on the NDX, $41-41.25 on the QQQQ's including heavy open put interest at the $41 strike which should provide support on dips. The SPX/Wilshire look like they are forming bull flag patterns and were not affected much today. The Energy sector looks like its heading for another leg higher if you study some of the 60 minute charts on Page 3 below. Something for everyone bull or bear....seems like that inverse relationship between the semis and oil is holding true to form here lately.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID897936&cmd=show[s61613413]&disp=...
Hi Loren
I give pattern recognition priority to divergences and in the case of the OIH we have a double bottom w/handle ascending triangle setting up which broke out to the upside on the close as you can see below.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=oih&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p58480744884&a=...
Its the nature of ascending triangles to form with negative divergence yet the majority in uptrends tend to break to the upside.
Here is a link to my site.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID897936
Good Trading!
Robb