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I think there are a lot of eyes on this, but with the constant downward movement the buyers wait. Many of them took significant profits last summer. They'll be back, and you'll be able to feel it when they are.
Right now, it's a standoff between those who believe in the company and those who don't. The company is reporting progress, but some choose not to believe the words of the company - only those of posters trying to manipulate the price.
Every price point we've seen in the past year will prove to be a bargain long-term.
Holding STRONG.
In fairness, he's been on the job 6 or 7 weeks.
I do agree that investor confidence has taken a hit, and I think much of that is due to the added shares. To suggest that they tried to pump the task list is silly IMO. They didn't take advantage of the PSC pump last summer (look at their older financials and you'll see proof of this), it's not why they're in this. They're focusing on building a business, not bilking investors.
And to counter your point... I'm sure plenty has changed since he's been on board. They're saying that the interest is as high as it's ever been, but you're also talking about a $2 million dollar investment for 10 acres. Those deals don't get made overnight.
Those who stick this one out will be rewarded in a big way.
My opinion.
You're right - $1.00 is crazy talk given where the company is today. Until something substantial happens, so is anything above .05
But I do believe that $1.00 pps at 1 Billion a/s is plausible in a couple years given relatively conservative PE ratios, and not including other major factors (govt grants, etc). I do believe the major factors will come into play, but I've not accounted for them in any of my own calculations.
What I meant in my post was that everyone is looking at the same company. It's crazy to say that a company with a $6,000,000.00 order should have a market cap of roughly the same amount. It's also crazy to say it should be a dollar - so I understand what you're saying. It's shouldn't be either. Same thing (i.e. same company), different view points.
I think there's no way BEHL is sub-penny if they were able to announce who their clients are. So, it really comes down to whether or not you believe them. I've spoken with the entire management team at different times, and from a "building the business standpoint" could not be more impressed.
I'm not a flipper, I'm an investor who has done a considerable amount of DD, and am very comfortable where I have put my money. I still haven't sold a share, because I have (and still do) believe that every price I've seen in the past year has been a bargain long-term. I think the remainder of this year (and years beyond) will prove the decision to stay a wise one.
My opinion. Good luck to you, man.
I'm looking forward to it, buddy. It will be a whole different animal by then.
well, most of the people who are still here are currently down. I think many are resisting to sell until they 1) break even, or 2) make some big money.
I'm waiting for #2
It's just a different view of the same thing. You say $1.00 is crazy. I say sub-penny is.
We have a $6,000,000.00 order, and a market cap of nearly the same number, while we're beginning the build of our first Commercial PBR.
Brian Goodall didn't show up to sink this thing in a month. Whatever he saw was ready to go, and he's bringing bigger and better clients with him.
I personally think it was one person.
About $1000 worth of stock was traded on that dip. Could be as little as one person in panic mode, or another person manipulating.
It was a PSC pump last summer. What will drive this going forward is revenues.
Currently the company has begun grading the site for its first 10 acre farm, so we're close IMO.
Very much agree with that. Good point. Do your own DD.
Interesting comment for a first-ever post.
So, your argument is that Dr. Brian Goodall, after:
1. building a career as an inventor and scientist (82 gov patents)
2. making the algae fuel for the first Virgin Atlantic flight
3. making the algae fuel for the first Continental Airlines algae-fuel flight
4. making the fuel for the Algeus car to travel cross-country (featured in a major motion picture film)
... would leave Sapphire Energy (the only algae company where Bill Gates put his money), to ruin his career by driving Biocentric into the ground in 45 days??
Seems a little far fetched.
Keep in mind that you're taking the word of an admitted flipper who is playing this stock, and making VERY substantial accusations and innuendos that have not been validated by any facts whatsoever.
It's your right to do what you feel you need to, but just a word of warning there.
Conferences like this are happening weekly these days. They have plenty of opportunities to attend almost as many as they'd like.
And many are closer to home.
Gummy, today's PR, coupled with Brian's letter to shareholders sounded to me like the BioCentric Team will be working in conjunction with the partner on the first 10 acre build. Showing the partner how to deploy (they learned much about this in Santa Ana).
Once the 10 acres is up, the partner will take over and begin replicating the systems that follow. This will happen in Q3 (which begins in 6-7 weeks).
The first ten acres is beginning now. The parts have been ordered, the land is being graded.
And I wouldn't worry about the SC PBR. Ten acres is roughly 70 times larger than our PBR in Santa Ana - we'll be able to fill the $6M order.
As far as I'm concerned...
#13 (independent evaluator) Is about the only remaining item I'd really like to see accomplished.
#12 (Patent Apps) Will happen - but doesn't matter to me when that is.
#10 and #11 (Desktop and Inoculant Reactor sales) - don't care when it happens.
#4 (SC PBR) - will be nice to have for east coast clients AFTER we build some farms out West.
#5 (Lone Star PBR) - also a nice-to-have down the road. But for me, all the validation we need is signed checks from clients.
If we scrap some of these, or they just don't get PR'd, I'm fine with it. Let's get the ten acres rolling and the cookie cutter cutting!
This is an old ad. I spoke to Lowell on many occasions over the 6 months (or so) he was with BEHL. He was the site manager for the V1 build, but became a bit obsolete when the RWE relationship developed. They managed the engineering, project management, so Lowell didn't have much of a function left there after awhile.
He hasn't been with the company since December or January.
When that theory was posted, I went to the bio-cam to check it out. They did not look flat to me. The screen had that hazy sort of look that it gets at certain points of the day, and the end tube to me looked full.
I don't believe they were flat, and if they were at any point flat for reasons they did not intend, you can bet the bio-cam would have been turned off.
Funny - when I spoke to Dennis several months back, he said "2 years at least" for the tubing. 5 years most, depending on conditions. He also answered an email recently saying that the system does not leak - and has not leaked.
You really need to get your facts straight.
Also, you don't have a clue what is happening with the tubes, you don't have a clue about the sterilization process, and you don't have a clue about what sort of testing they're doing on their backyard demo unit.
So please spare us the use of the words like "obviously" and "something is terribly wrong" when it comes to subject matter that you have ZERO expertise in, or knowledge of.
Great post.
Maybe it was filled with the Spirulina beer, and they all decided to party tonight!
Right. Best focus group you could ask for. No one here ever keeps their mouths shut! lol.
Ray... can you PM me your email address? Have an off-topic question and no paid subscription.
thanks.
Beastie
Well said.
The exciting part for me will be when we begin stamping these out in the "cookie cutter" fashion BG mentioned. Every acre on the ground means more daily revenues in the door, and more immediate cash flow through sales.
This is all BEFORE we even start talking about biofuel. By the time we get to a point where biofuels are a possiblity, we'll not only be able to take advantage of governement dollars we don't need, but we'll have 100's of acres of production farms on the ground.
Algae has so many applications (more and more each day) it's sick. And now we've got a leading algae scientist as our CEO. The engineering has taken us this far, it'll be fun to see where Goodall adds to the bottom line through the science of it.
BEHL is using other people's money to put their PBRs on the ground, and simply taking profit with every pound of algae they produce. With this model, who else could put down 100 acre production facility faster than us?
Once we start generating revenues, everything grows exponentially from there. The PBR sales increase (money now), and with it daily company production increases as well (money now AND later).
More, on top of more, on top of more.
And Sapphire is working hard too. Their NM facility is set to reach commercial scale by 2018.
And you wonder why Dr. Goodall saw the potential here?
I've been saying this for nearly a year. The business model is brilliant.
It's the reason I'm in this stock. And no one else I've seen has adopted this model yet. The other algae companies are relying on:
- the cost of a barrel of oil
- government funding
- carbon credits
- venture capitalists
The one's who are smart enough to produce omega 3 are doing it at a cost much greater than we are.
Oh, sorry. Read that the wrong way then. My apologies.
If there's no balance struck between money now/later, then you have to go for money now. We need revenues.
I don't think BEHL has to strike that balance the way other companies do though. Because the more PBR acreage we sell now, the more algae we'll produce later. The big money jobs now dovetail into a bigger residual base later.
First, I don't think they are, as you say:
1. "sacrificing greater long-term profits"
2. making a "complete shift of priorities" as you suggest
Every time they put tubes on the ground they're in it for long-term profit, because those tubes will continue to produce algae to sell.
The money now/later is a balancing act depending on circumstances. But the current situation is a no-brainer.
Currently the client PBR is paid for by the client (money now) vs. a commercial demo unit we pay for in SC (debt now). Plus, the client PBR will be many times larger than the SC PBR (more production, more money later).
Short-term and long-term, it's not even a question.
Our new client PBRs will fill the order. They're not releasing the names yet. No timeline on when they will either, I would guess a few months from now.
Go back and read the PRs from the past couple months.
- New CEO from Sapphire (impressive credentials)
- Working Commercial Demonstration Unit (soon to be inoculated)
- Signed contracts, deposits made, parts ordered for first commercial unit
- Three VARs signed
- etc...
Welcome back. Should be a fun summer
Right. And as an investor, I'd rather see my company make "money now" objectives a priority over "money later" items... even if that means jumping around on the previously posted list.
Again, we signed clients. That was a 6 month objective. We signed VARs, which wasn't even on the list.
We're 77% through the 90 days, and they've already said South Carolina is put on hold. Why? I'd bet it's because their resources are being used to build a CLIENT PBR.
Guys, it's an objective list, yes, but don't let your OCD kick in on the 90 day part... we're moving past that in some ways already. And any CEO with half a brain would put an objectives list on hold for money now.
Right, Facts are Facts.
So why are you choosing to ignore the fact that one of our 6 month objectives have already been met?
We've signed clients. That's no where in the 90 day objective, and I could care less where it is on the list. They had an opportunity to make money NOW. If that puts Lonestar and South Carolina on hold, that works just fine for me.
We've also signed resellers.
New CEO, new priorities. These objectives were put out by Dennis Fisher. They are a good barometer, but let's not get caught up in nit-picking them. There's a new guy at the helm and some of these listed objectives are not even worthy of a PR in my mind.
It was algae! lol.
Would you like that Spirulina Beer everyone keeps talking about? Or how about a PBR?? lol.
I would have bet a hell of a lot more than a beer that there was algae in those tubes. And if you can believe it, I'm still not convinced there wasn't.
But I'll buy the beer. If for nothing other than the fact that you're not going to leave me alone until I back down! lol.
Hopefully at the shareholders meeting we can toast to fat wallets!
6000 sq. ft.
Started off at 6500.
You're going to owe me a beer, dude. I've got a couple pictures for you. First one is from Thursday 5/6. Next one is from ten minutes ago.
Same trees - no "reflection" for Thursdays picture. Or any other pic I've seen from before that time. Shoot me an email (beastie2009@gmail.com) and I'll send them to you.
There's algae in the tubes.
I don't know. I'm looking now and just about half the tubes appear to have a hint of green.
We'll find out for sure one way or another, but after cleaning pools for a good portion of my young adult life, it sure looks like a familiar sight.
Khesanh, if I'm wrong I'll be happy to pay you what you're owed. If I'm right, I'll have a PBR :)
Hm...the tube on the right looks lighter than it did even this morning. Maybe you're right, or maybe it just evened out a bit. Either way, I'll still stick with my wager.
If I'm wrong, I'll owe you a beer at the next shareholders meeting :)
As far as I'm concerned, the color only starting changing this weekend. I saw the PBR after they moved SOME of the tubes closer together.
This looks different.
Yeah - I had noticed the color on the left as well. I only mention the right side, because it has the best view - you can see the tube top to bottom.
The algae will double every 24 hours. Guess that means we won't have to wait too long to see if I need to clean my glasses :)
I think you're right.
That tube on the right looked much different than it did even this morning. If it was dirt around the right side tube, it'd have been there this morning. Wasn't the clouds, because they came and went, and the tube was still colored all day. Wasn't a "reflection from the tress" - as someone suggested, unless they planted some trees around the PBR mid-morning today.
The first color we saw in the tubes at SJC was algae - not a solution of any kind. I think we've inoculated.
Sure looks like algae in the PBR now. The tube on the far right is a very different color than it used to be, even since yesterday.
Whether it's cloudy or sunny in a particular screen shot, it no longer has a clear appearance. Been checking in on it all day.