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Bid squatters who picked up good fill volumes @ .30 today are grinning from ear to ear.
Exactly. Opportunity is knocking today too.
Mr Miller steps down in 1 week. You know insiders and people working closely with the BK have known about it for longer than that.
It makes sense. Mr Henning is a finance exec with 35 years - just what AVRNQ needs for exiting BK. The key to success for corn-based producers is locking in corn and eth contracts when spreads are good to guarantee a margin that gets them through when spreads aren't so good.
IMO he is making a good point with that comment.
How many companies have bondholders who are going to hang around after the company defaults on $300M worth of debt and files BK? Usually they are screaming for everything to be sold off so they can get some of their $ back - not refinancing the company and even providing additional exit financing.
Makes me wonder if the whole thing was made to go that way from the start - just to help AVRNQ through their cash flow crunch.
Quote from Yahoo poster giving take on the refinancing terms in that article
"Interesting that the orginal 10% unsecured bond holders have decided to stay with this company into the future. I have a feeling they have been getting a real "education" on the future prospects for corn-based ethanol over the last 6 months. They must view Aventine as having a future or they would not be continuing to support their long debt."
Article describing Aventines refinancing strategy:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/d014f846-b401-11de-98ec-00144feab49a.html
I found this on Yahoos message board for AVRNQ. Link to the thread:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_A/threadview?m=tm&bn=70607&tid=1896&mid=1896&tof=1&frt=2
Its pretty funny that a London publication is where we have to go to get some info about this company.
Low volume today. We have had these days before - traded 32k Jul 13, 43k Aug 6, 45K Aug 20. Almost nice to have a break where holders are not willing to sell any shares. As utmost said the "force" is strong. We are in the latest channel for now.
When I saw it trading at .25 I decided to test it. I placed a limit order for 1000 shares at .26 about 1 hour before close when the ask was .269. They filled it about 1/2 hour later after several lower orders filled. Someone is really working this right now.
Case docket 479 released AH 10/2. IMO, MMs are rooting out traders not willing to wait another 2 months for the reorganization plan. Someone accumulated a decent number of shares cheap today. Trader selling was easily absorbed by accumulator once price came down a little.
Good advice. AON just gives them an excuse if you don't get filled. Better to let it fill or partially fill in small blocks than end up with no shares.
Tiny 3K bond trades
If any of you follow other ethanols PEIX GPRE BIOF were all down today 2.5% to 5%. ADM was up today 3%. ADM is into so many other things that they aren't really an ethanol company any more.
Bid squatters had to move up to .29 to get any shares today. They scared up a few but really not many. This is looking better every day.
You have to laugh. Yesterdays 3 sells to dip the price were 250, 120, 100 shares. Today we have had 137 and 500 shares. Do they really think people don't see the tiny volumes? Must not want the chart to totally flat line.
A little bit more manip today. Holding powder and waiting for the lull fearers today. Seems like no one wants to sell here. Good. I can wait a long time. :)
Great discussion. The big problem was my order was a limit order and limit orders don't work if you really want to buy a stock. I might switch brokers Monday.
We had about 3-1/2 days of honest trading. Then we had 1-1/2 days of BS "games" this week. At least the volume was up some today. Amazing to watch this.
Bid .265 not filled yet. Showing .26 x .29. Calling broker for a talk. At .265 all day and nothing.
My bid was at .265 too. They flat out didn't want to fill it.
Day 6 "accumulation trading strategy":
1. Sneak in early with large buys, in opening minutes, maybe no one will notice
2. Wait and walk down for 2-1/2 hours
3. Wait through the mid-session lull for nervous sellers
4. Figure out not much selling bec market cap too low
5. Figure out most investors are long and actually see big value here - even if Chapter 11
6. Let it trade out, watch other investors increase positions, and hope for a better price tomorrow
Aug case docket link with recent financials
http://www.aventineinfo.com/466_11214.pdf
Looks like there might have been an elephant in the room right before the close today.
Looks like some investors waiting for a pull back after yesterdays pop may not get it. Good to see the strength so far today.
I think you are right. Aventines scheduled date for filing the proposed reorg plan is only 2-1/2 weeks from now. They could get an extension to file, but by now there are many insiders and other professionals that have assisted developing the reorg plan that know exactly what the plan contains.
madclown,
1st - thanks for the posts, especially the bond trades research.
2nd - a hypothetical question only - asking only for your opinion here. Lets say after the reorg plan valuations are completed Aventine is actually solvent (market value of all assets exceed sum of pre-petition allowed claims and post-petition liabilities) and therefore they can't qualify for fresh-start reporting. Does it follow that there is (by default) a "net equity value" that exceeds all liabilities that the existing stock holders have a claim on?
I realize that the BK court has to approve of the assets valuation, the reorg plan, the treatment of all claimants, etc. and can over-rule anything. I also realize there might be new shares issued to the debt holders as part of the reorg plan - meaning dilution for existing stock holders.
In a nutshell, I am wondering what your opinion is on what happens with the existing shares if Aventine can't qualify for fresh-start reporting when they emerge from Ch 11?
Utmost,
Thanks for the update on the short trading. Looks like the short interest continues to fall. We are past the first bar date, so maybe some news will come out from the company soon. Too many months of no info has only held back the stock.
Utmost,
How many BK companies have the $ to resume construction on an unfinished plant? :)
Also, the 110 MGY Mount Vernon, IN plant was closer to completion than Aurora West was when they halted construction. Doesn't it make sense that something is probably going on there too? Maybe we should call the newspaper there and see if they can find out something for us? :)
Some news speculating that Aventine is about to resume construction on their 85% complete Aurora West plant.
http://www.theindependent.com/articles/2009/09/02/news/local/10550289.txt
The company hasn't said anything, so the local newspapers are doing it. :)
About the only "real" info is contained in the case dockets. The monthly operating reports are very useful. Docket 396 is interesting too. Maybe we will get a statement from the company after Sept 8 bar date passes. Maybe not until Oct when they are scheduled to release the reorg plan.
tim - looks like the July operating report they posted on the case docket last night is sparking some interest. yahoo board posters are saying the numbers look real good.
that will definately help at the Pekin dry mill and Aurora 1 dry mill. Remember when NG got over $11? Commodities were wild for awhile and finally settled down. It was probably a good correction, but also painful for the dry mills.
cork - crush spread yesterday = $1.20. The spread is rising lately. The corn/ethanol price ratio has been steadily improving.
Good site for corn crush, CBOT corn, CBOT ethanol:
http://www.ethanolmarket.com/
The last month or so looks pretty good for net profit.
The spread was down in the $.30 to $.40 range for months. Low cost producers have positve margins now. Excess RINs are not killing the physical ethanol market any more.
I dont know why the spread would be lower in March. If we get the increased yield corn will be down and fuel price will hold or go up.
Utmost,
I think you are right. In fact, Metalmark must have sold out between 3/30 and mid April. Or at least sometime before case docket 14 was approved by the BK court. If not they would have had to file a "Notice of Stock Transaction" with the BK court because they were "Substantial Equity Holders" and owned more than 4.75%. Even though the mffais page says they sold "as-of 6/30", they must have sold right after the "as-of 3/30" filing date. They have been gone a long time.
Thanks Novice. Even though they are in Chapter 11 this company looks great from a fundamental point of view to me. RBOB is also behaving nicely in the last couple weeks. A blend rate ruling will be forced out of EPA Dec 3 too.
Bet the guy who bought 50k shares for .175 at 2:38pm is smiling right now. And the guy who sold 50k shares for .17 at 12:42pm isn't. July operating report out soon.
Utmost,
Thanks. I know what you are saying about unforeseen crap, but I am holding on this one. The valuation will win out in the end. It only takes some time and the right perspective. Investors will start to see it differently when it emerges or gets sold. Thanks again and GLTA.
Utmost,
That last reply was pretty sketchy. What I was saying is that since 7/23 it seems like a small sell-off early in the session followed by a lull. Today we had the strongest early sell-off followed by the longest lull. Does this make any sense?
Utmost,
I think you might have nailed it on your "gap" theory in message 985. In fact, to me it almost looks like everything after 7/23 has been set up for a final shake out. I keep looking at that large trade at EOD on 7/23 and the patterns after that. Do you see anything there?
Also, mjpw311 at yahoo board posted an interesting item from BK case docket #354 posted on Aventines website last night. A lawyers billing statement is saying there are at least two "interested parties" for either investing in and/or purchasing AVRNQ. Hoping they come out with some news soon.
Utmost,
Amen.
Agree 100 percent. Aventine has been beaten down like you can't believe.
I was looking at the 1 yr price chart at Fidelity and thinking about what they have been through in the last 12 months. Lousy corn vs. ethanol price spreads killed their margins starting in Aug 08 (when stock was $7). They dropped to $2 by Nov 1st. Then Verasun announced their BK which further hammered them down to $.30 over the next 2 months since they were the only two NYSE traded "pure play" ethanol companies. Then their bad operating results in Q4 and the rather large hedged corn positions that hurt Q1 09 earnings. Things are looking much better now with corn and ethanol prices where they are today. There is also a very good chance the blend rate will go up some (to 12% or 13%)in Dec when EPA is forced to rule on it.
Its a true value play at this point, not a pump and dump.