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You sold 1/5 of your position? Sounds like you sold more
Zoom zoom commons lets go! (I dont own any but want you guys to rally hard on volume)
How does the government monetize the warrants in this scenario?
fnma common up on vol.
Actually i think he may be right about ev. You are talking market cap.
This is an equity restructuring. His ev analysis is worthless but interesting for a clueless soul
Spspa if monetized can be exceedingly dilutive for common interests. But my view is that going this route kind of wipes commons
The main thing for commons is if the government wants to spend the warrant money and values it over spspa money. Mnuchin seemed to think it was illegal to just write spspa to zero. That may have changed since they breached contract
You are a riot. Cool. Good luck
What did you command in the navy? Being a commander seems to imply overseeing possibly an entire boat — I have no idea.
Happy Sunday. Good luck this week, If i was your commanding officer I would order you to acquire jps.
That said, you cant see past your somewhat false ad hominum attacks against me.
Commons just have no security and are a gamble. Ceo of fannie mae is now pushing for a victory lap of ending the conservatorship
Yea yea
Anti dilution protection securities still offer 9x upside. I am buying more this wk. i have bought a lot the past two years. The supreme court screwing up the collins ruling and then the aftermath of confused prices in jps land changed my life.
Now, the opportunity is collapsing to the upside. All opportunities collapse. The opportunity decreases or reality increases until it goes away.
Happy January 21 cmdr
I tend to agree on outcome. I remain an owner of junior preferred only though.
I think the ceo of fannie mae talking pro exit conservatorship is practically a firable offense if the biden admin was not okay with it. Same goes for sandra thompson who talked recap at the Thursday fireside chat.
Anyway — i own jps because of the spspa and my estimate of valuations.
Jps have the anti dilution protection that i need to sleep well at night. May want to check them out. Multi year lows but 52 wk highs. Zoom
Yep. Gse ceo in conservatorship is effectively fhfa. Post collins fhfa is effectively the administration. So my view is ceo saying end of conservatorship is a victory lap. Greasing the skids
Tim pagliara says march sotu is when biden admin makes announcement. Sounds good to me
Yes i have schwab. Yes i own fnmfo there.
I dont really care or worry about all the things you seem to care and worry about. Relax bro. Schwab is right. You are just being obnoxious
Buy more
Very funny. Good luck
Bloomberg reports the recapitalization and release of the GSE’s as a “Trump” trade. I believe it is the Biden trade. March 7, SOTU is one of the latest ever scheduled. Watch Housing and the shortage of single family homes become a major theme. Biden will call for a recommitment… https://t.co/IMGrCFudLB
— Tim Pagliara (@timpagliara) January 18, 2024
I muted him too. But he started attacking me today for trying to help others avoid his nonsensical posts.
As such i will be reporting the posts of his here that deserve to be reported. My civic duty.
Reported this post. You need help.
Its okay. He attacked me too today. Mikesp/tightcoil seems to be having a tough time
Go easy on him. He doesn’t understand what he is saying
Good luck with this. Wishing the best for you and yours— i just see the spspa and am not making that similar gamble alongside you because of it.
This was before the supreme court ruled on collins v yellen and opted out of the takings cases.
Your attempt at character assassination is noted
I am encouraging you to join me. We are going higher in jps land.
Mikesp/tightcoil really has it out to get me and all i have ever attempted to do is to try and educate him and then after discovering the futulity in such an exercise — educate people about him
Read his posts over on google groups. Judge for yourself
Water is warm. Jps are going higher. Trump won iowa
Calling shenigans on their gse balance sheets is a fools parade
The liquidation preference keeps going up. The face value does not. The government’s accounting of the value if its spspa it publishes i think once a year. The cbo report monetizes the face value of the spspa.
Nothing is hiding. It is all there, but the market value of the equity of the gses based on their earnings power is only so much
$fnmas new 52 week highs this upcoming week. Good luck grabbing them. This is gonna go fast
FNMAS just turned up MAJOR FOMO after burners
Time to put real some distance between the price and the lows. You aint seen nothing yet. It is gang busters fomo time choo choo
Thank you for illustrating a perspective that no one else could make up themselves if they wanted to.
This narrative of yours is like a religion that only you practice and even less informed common shareholders pay homage to at this point
Happy 2024. Enjoy the learning experience. Hope we both make it to the restructuring event where they get to move forward and exit conservatorship and regain access yo equity capital markets
disregard, i think you're a dentist, so maybe $5M of par value might not make a material dent in what you're doing.
you need to accumulate more par value, enough such that you'd leave your dental job and ... relocate.. hold on and then a year after you relocate you should be fine
when these get converted and uplisted you can do stock loans at low rates over at IBKR.
okay, 5 million par value at ordinary taxes vs ltgc ---
let's focus on that staying LTCG
but 5 million fnmas par value is 200k shares of FNMAS is like $100k of potential damages probably like $68k after lawyer fees.
my point is, you're focusing on the tax treatment of $68K and my point is that you should be focusing on the tax treatment of $5M.
plus, if you have that much par and are this concerned about taxes, gtfo out of NYC and CA. go to a tax free state of TX and FL --- the state tax differential alone on that par value----
but seriously, you're being ridiculous here.
taking out more stops!
I recommend focusing on par value. That is all. Peace.
Wow hundreds of thousands of pennies
That tX rate on $0.50 when the face value of ltcg of a $25 face value security
You are splitting pennies child
i am sure google could answer your question.
i personally do not think that it matters enough for me to look into.
settlement of this kind of opens the door for the biden to move forward with locking in its housing policies.
i think that's the real value, no real sense splitting hairs over pennies.
wrong,
Rut row
3x or 0.
Have you seen the government’s record with this litigation?
The government can get away with murder basically.
A bird in the hand is worth 1000 birds in the bush against the government
This sort of analysis seems to indicate that plaintiff lawyers are getting paid. Berkowitz stopped funding litigation a long time ago. Plaintiff lawyers only get paid if they win. If they win this they wont appeal. The damages is enough for them to get a good payday from it. That is all the lawyers care about. Zero reason to appeal unless the government does.
I tend to agree with this at this point.
it is unclear how the government is going to monetize its position
there is SPSPA and Warrants. According to the CBO report, the face value of the SPSPA + the warrants is what the government sells.
Who knows.
you are thinking too hard
treasury has an agreement with fannie and freddie to allow them to raise third party capital.