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For anyone that takes the time to look under the hood, it's not about earnings at this point of their story. It is nice to see Erivedge continues to have a nice growth rate.... 28% Q4 to Q3, gives them some cash flow and goes to servicing the $30M financing from 2012. Based on the rate of sales growth, I'm thinking late 2016 or definitely 2017, it will be satisfied. Every month if you don't want to wait for their CC just watch for Roche's breakdown ~ a month b4. Q4 was $42M so assuming 5%, $2.1M in sales. Wondering now that it is over $1M for the year if it bumps up which we would find out at the CC. Ceiling is 7.5%. There typically is some knee jerk reaction from folks not taking the time to digest the whole story...not concerned about them like the day/short term trades moving in and out. I am very much a T\A freak and I just stare at this chart as in the 35 years I've been doing this I've just NEVER seen a chart this parabolic\overbought that shows no negative divergences at this point for such a run. But anyone that knows\been involved in these wars knows overbought conditions with this kind of momentum can go for a long time with no or very little pullbacks.... just go with the trend. I just smile at the people that try to tell the market it is wrong (is it ever?) and step in front of this to short. And I've been there and learned the hard way myself a long time ago. Every level I've identified as a target\resistance has had some selling but unless you look at intraday charts many are not aware of that. Friday the first 20 minutes was amazing as selling\shorting was thrown at it big time and when I saw it hold ~2.90 level just knew this was a beast and would bounce hard! lol I think that has been the beauty of this climb that contrary to what daily charts show, there has been a lot of selling and shorting on the way up to relieve the overbought pressure allowing this to climb insanely. The momentum combined with more people understanding the story of what they're doing, specifically 907 could easily support this to hit my revised targets of 10-15 by year's end; 6 or more by ASCO; and 40 or less within 4 years (and that may be conservative). Right now I'd say the 3.35 area may get a bit sticky and then there is the gap ~ 3.85 to close from when CUDC 427 was halted. My thought there is that is it's a gap that will be the type to close and then this thing will accelerate. Again just an old guy's opinion. fwiw Another wildcard which could be huge for them, again imo, is the IPF trial w\ Erivedge that Roche is slated to resume. A huge market and the fact is Erivedge is antifibrotic and there are MANY fibrotic diseases out there.
You're making the right move. I've been with them for years and they have torn down (management\pipeline) and now are building up the company on firm foundation. CUDC907 is a winner and already has great results for the public to see that is being overlooked by many. The abstract has been submitted for ASCO. When I consider what a fair market cap and PT for the company should be I take into account that it is on schedule this year to have 2 drugs having IND's submitted\ into P1 (recent alliance with Aurigene); another drug, CUDC 427 in P1; another drug in a P1/2 trial CUDC 305; another drug in a P1 (solids) & P2/3 trial, CUDC 907; and a drug, Erivedge, that is commercialized with a nice growth curve along with being in various P2 trials. Now this is no ACAD but I'd suggest looking at their pipeline chart ((((http://www.acadia-pharm.com/pipeline/)))) and their market cap of > $3B or an INFI with a market cap of > $700M ((((( http://www.infi.com/research-development/pipeline/))))). I do know Curis's pipeline chart will be stronger than those two and have a drug on the market. So I'm thinking it is fair to say they fall between those 2 mc #'s, perhaps half way or a bit more? So maybe a bit north of $1.3B? Just using that crude analysis but logical, that would give them an approx. pps of $12 - $13 by end of year or before. Just something to consider. Interesting how close that comes to RBC's recent upside PT of $14........."
Bird,
Ditto from me. Well said. B
Very much so!
Added today
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at 3.68.
Hi D,
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Just also remember what happened this past 1/4 with institutional.....just keeps getting more solid all the time.
20ma
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we're showing it a lot of love. :)
In many respects
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we have much more going on (revenues, etc.!) and better products than INFI and PCYC. This is just on the verge of huge potential ramp up! glty!
Desert Dweller,
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Once people hear\understand the implications of CUDC427 and CUDC 907 this will be double digits. They never even received credit in their pps for buying 427 and it is ready to go to PII! Once Genentech presents it at ASCO it'll be another HUGE catalyst! Onward and upward! Lots happening next 3 months!
Operable info!
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This is where they will generate revenue with Erivedge. http://www.healio.com/dermatology/cutaneous-oncology/news/online/%7B277B4DB2-5471-4566-9A7C-47BEBCEC303F%7D/Vismodegib-effective-as-adjuvant-therapy-before-Mohs-surgery-for-BCC
Presentation on operable results within 3 months. In addition next 3-6 months bring EMA and Australia decisions for Erivedge; two more sites coming on line for CUDC-907 P1 trial within the month and potential insights to initial findings; additional info on pancreatic trial; and CUDC-427 P1 results being presented at ASCO by Genentech with then P2 trials beginning. These two drugs represent some of the hottest fields right now in cancer research. Do your DD on the company.
You have the cup
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still need some duration of consolidation to create handle. Then yes target from it a bit above 4 ~4.20 area. Looking for support 3.62 or higher. And as I type I see the blip to hit some stops down below. Above 200ma lurking ~3.90 area.
Hi Law,
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Staying busy as we watch the exciting episode of Fiscal Cliff! :) I find it humorous as both parties and Obama voted for it and touted it as a great achievement when they passed it. Last I looked seemed to be a step (small at best) in the right direction in fiscal responsibility. Happy New Year to you and everyone here!
So now we have Mexico and Israel
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approval for Erivedge. Sure would be nice to see a company PR spelling that out.
Yep
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and the IND. Next 3-6 months could get very interesting.
Momentum is growing
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as more stations are recently reporting the breast cancer info.
DD,
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Good comments regarding Curis's march forward. ot Relistened to recent presentation this a.m. Wouldn't that be something for them to announce the two IND's within a week or two of each other? Per the presentation, it could happen. B
Interesting
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mine is no where near that. Using Metastock with monthly 74 low. It has 10 lines. Checking its parameters, the rise is 516.74 and the run is 62. (the defaults) B
Agreed
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the bottom line are the financial statements.
I may be mistaken
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but I believe it's been happening for 2 quarters already.
Two other thoughts
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regarding the recent conversation here. One I believe it is common practice the last I looked for analysts (and it was only one here) to drop price targets to get cheaper shares for clients, etc. The second is yes he missed his IND target and was forecasting out ~ 12 months at that time. Now he is forecasting out < 4 months. I'd like to believe he continues to learn as any good business person does in estimating various things that they're involved. If you listen to yesterday's presentation, sure seems like it is soon and perhaps closer to the beginning of the 4th 1/4 as opposed to the end. OT Also note what has happened to .BTK since 7/19.
Appears
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he'll have something else to talk about today! :)
Good morning everyone
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A few thoughts on the price drop. First the negative and I don't believe it. (1) A negative word is out to "certain people" and they're selling as slowly as possible to preserve gains before it becomes public. (2) A positive word is out and they're working it down to maximize gains before it is made public and also during process letting big short positions chances to cover. (3) Neither of those but just taking advantage of no news and manipulating it like crazy knowing this is a winner here and accumulating cheaper shares. As far as how disappointing it is, I can't say anything that hasn't already been stated here. I do hope today that the same dog and pony show is not presented but something new with a bit more enthusiasm combined. When presenters read virbatim it drives me crazy especially when alerting the audience to such an incredible breakthru. B
Thanks DD.
Appreciate you taking the time to reply. I believe very much in the drug already approved for its initial use and look forward to the various other ways it will help people. And to all the other projects they are working. The obvious is they need news of the other trials to kick start this. Since you're in the profession\fraternity, why don't you call receivables at Roche to get July's #'s? :)))
Huge favor to ask,
First thank you very much for the link to the studies. Being somewhat unknowlegable of this field, could you take the time and go thru the list one by one (like I said huge favor) and give comments, status, where they stand in general, what's next ie. info on each other than what is obviously stated in each? Thanks a ton! It seems to me we're waiting on a lot of info at the moment or will be very soon. Also what is typical timeframe of hearing something relative to completion date? Thanks again. Something about what they're in to here with Erivedge, etc., that although they're looking at many possibilities for its use, that perhaps its role may be bigger than what any of us can comprehend at the moment, or perhaps I'm hoping? :)
Hi John,
Thanks for the response. I don't want to think about what awaits us after the election. :) But back to the 40 week low. Per your thoughts in March, "I have run ST with 20 year data and no expert model (first 4 charts), and I have run it with 2009 - present data and no expert model. The projections look similar and I would say that ST is not making a clear bet which way things go from here. For now there is no sell signal given for a decline into a 40 week low (35 weeks would put the low about mid-June)." From that can't the 40 week low then have just occurred...gotten back on schedule so to speak? I have the course from way back when I was more active talking to Airedale on the old RB mb, but have forgotten various "rules". Also now having used the software for a while, your thoughts on the investment? Thanks-B
Hi John,
Was reviewing this link for some hindsight and the person's post following it. It appears to me the 40 week may be closer to being on time versus the thought of it coming in ~35 weeks based on the thinking at that time. Thoughts? tia
Nice call. eom.
Another heads up on AIS
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Antares Pharm was AIS on the AMEX now on the Naz with the symbol ATRS. fwiw Do your DD. This company has legs for a long time.
Noticed that
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Close enough
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now tomorrow Naz bell ringing ceremony and a gap to possibly fill from today or may it be a gap and run? Stay tuned. :)
Can't remember 5 minutes ago
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but thanks. Just encountered another tl. Next one(s) above in the ~3.60 and 3.75 areas. Above that nothing but Fib levels and if you want to count(10 year old + highs). This could get more interesting than what we think.
Ya
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note that top line of the regression channel...could be in the cross hairs now.
3.75 in 9\16\03....
calm down. :)) I want to see 02's high crushed.....soon.
Crony Capitalism
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take a listen if you haven't already. Nothing new but concisely spoken. http://billmoyers.com/segment/david-stockman-on-crony-capitalism/
Wow
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that's a freight train I'm not challenging. :)))