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Yes, but it won't be very easy to build another Wall St. (the Great Game/Casino) or another capitalistic system like we have and often take for granted here in the US. Witness how difficult it is for other countries to copy what we have. People here who hope for our system to fail don't realize that they are burning down their own house.
I detest the liars and the crooks as much as anyone, but I am heartened at the way the system is correcting its errant ways. And man oh man were they errant...
It seems to me that the burden of proof now lies with the bears. Has the business cycle been repealed? I think not and have placed my bets accordingly. God Bless the USA !
Continuing the analogy of the Casino and the Dealer.. it has never made sense to me..., those people who predict that the Casino is going to burn down.., first of all, what kind of person would wish for that to occur?..., and why not instead enjoy all the free drinks and food and the pretty ladies dancing up there on the stage?
Why would anyone want the Casino to burn down? Seems to me that only the curmudgeons and psychos would wish for such an event to occur...
Play your cards and enjoy the show...
Taiwan Semiconductor, the biggest foundry in the world said an anticipated -7% drop in demand had not materialized and they were adding capacity to accommodate a brisk increase in orders for PC products. Did anybody pickup on that? The expected drop in demand did not appear and capacity utilization was increasing due to orders for computer products. This is not a small side sector manufacturer. This is the largest chip foundry in the world.
http://www.asianinvestoronline.com/marketwrap/112402_1.asp
I'm sorry Sly#80, I didn't realize that I had to prove myself to you. Have you been designated my personal dingaling?
I don't live on this thread.
Late September I covered shorts and early October I went long. By October 17th I was publicly asking why there were so many moaning groaning bears on this thread? There's a clue.
Sorry if I didn't post every trade for you. I'm not Zeev.
Here's my thinking: In this Casino, the Dealer, Mr Greeneyeshades has publically said that he's now on my side. He's been dealing me Aces and Full Houses and Royal Flushes, and he's been dealing the other guys all the low cards and jokers.
I don't try to overthink things in this Casino or predict the future like Miss Cleo. I just try to play the cards I'm dealt.
Valuations at cycle troughs are just as wacky as they are at cycle peaks. I think I've already said that it is all about FUTURE EXPECTATIONS.
If you want to project a linear negative scenario into the future, that's up to you, but you are making the same mistake as the bulls when they projected a linear positive scenario.
I play both sides. I just don't try to argue the market into doing what I want it to do. I let it tell me. Sure I've been burned, but I know how to change, and that is what has kept me in the game. And like I've already said, I covered all my shorts in late September/early October and went 150% long.
msg# 27049
I am very happy that I did so.
I rest my case.
Sly#80, I use these threads to try and challenge my thinking.
Congenital Bears back-slapping and high-fiving themselves over every bit of negative news does nothing for anybody. If anything, I trade against that, just as I did when the bulls were all wearing sunglasses in early 2000.
It's the inability to change that dooms you to extinction.
I also used to think that the bears were generally more astute, but no longer. The bears are just as prone to Pavlovian responses as the bulls, but the bears are much nastier about it.
Good. I mostly play the swings with options and futures, and I just don't understand why people are playing for nickles and dimes shorting into a rising market that is shrugging off bad news and heading higher..
I'll be the first to change tacks when the wind changes, but right now my sails are full.. and I feel that the wind is still to my back..
good luck
Sly#80, the words remain the same, but their meanings change..., you can argue all you want with what is, but it still is. Don't ask me to justify it to you. That's a fool's game.
I don't know what will happen in the future, only Miss Cleo knows, and the FCC put her out of business. But she did manage to rake in 500 Million from people who wanted to know their future. Don't we all.
If you've staked out a position that is causing you pain, then change.
Jack be nimble, Jack be quick...
You know Sly#80, I do as much due diligence as anyone, but at this point in time a relentless pursuit for economic DD gets in the way of just following the big money. And the big money is moving into stocks and will probably continue to do so for a while longer. (pay attention to wahz's scenario)
The market is shrugging off bad news and heading higher. To say that this is not real, is denying reality. It is very real. My account makes me feel Real Good. That's how I know it's real.
Soon enough will be more than soon enough. You can make several fortunes in the "soon enough" before it's time to change tacks again..
"Jack be nimble, jack be quick..."
Time to count those unreal numbers...
Leuthold has a solid record and an excellent reputation. He calls it pretty well. At least that's been my experience listening to him over the years.
Tice, now he's a different story all together.. Permabear.. don't think he'll ever change
Sly#80, last year was still working off the bubble. It was an anomalous year. I really think you need to study the historical btb numbers a little more and their correlation to the stocks.
It isn't always as easy as monkey see monkey do
"And so we will know again what was real 2-3 months from now."
That's more than enough time, to turn and turn about.
Remember: Jack be nimble, jack be quick.. jack ran away with the golden candle stick (pardon the nursery rhyme modifications)
Yo! Sly#80. Not so. You should do a little more research. Go back and look at the btb numbers in 96 and 98 and compare those numbers to the sox performance.
If you are as smart as I think you are, you'll discover that the sox took off like a rocket before the btb#s provided your EVIDENCE.
It's all about the future EXPECTATIONS.
As soon as it's CLEAR TO EVERYBODY what the EVIDENCE is, it will be time to SHORT again.
"Not for real and based absolutely zero!!!"
Yea, you must be right, gosh darn it. That Kings Ransom I've made since covering shorts and going 150% long in October can't be real. It just can't be.. can it?
Nahhh, those numbers don't mean a thing.. can't be real..., but now I really am confused. What IS Real anyway..?
Hey, wasn't it Miss Cleo who made 500 million dollars telling bozos their futures? Now that lady could see what was Real.
Smart Lady, dumb Bozos
Leuthold is one smart cookie. He was right about the bubble environment a few years ago, leaning against the wind..
He's one of the few with any credibility left.. IMO
gimme a reason, gimme a sign..
ok: because it is
If you want answers from the future, go talk to Miss Cleo
That's history. I covered my shorts in Sept/October.
It's all about the future.
True, but the bulls only have to get it right once now, even if in this current environment, they're wrong. The bears have to keep getting it right over and over, and even when they do, they're still wrong.. even if they're right... for the present..
Does that make sense??
No not significant. Just trying for a little balance on an otherwise bearish drumbeat on this thread.
I just find it amusing that the Bulls in the Spring of 2000 used the same logic, ie looking for a linear progression into a future so bright that "we all needed sunglasses," and now I see the bears doing the same.., "things are so dark and will stay that way forever..."
The market is shrugging off bad news and heading higher...
I'd keep the original Picasso
Because......, perhaps because some people see a different future than the persistant gloom and doom propagated here by the congenital bears????
Insider buying recently at ASYT:
Officer 7,300 ASYT
Open Market Purchase
Cost $45,311.00
10/29/2002 GEOFFREY GEORGE RIBAR
Chief Financial Officer 10,000 ASYT
Open Market Purchase
Cost $58,386.95
10/29/2002 STEPHEN S SCHWARTZ
Chief Executive Officer 15,000 ASYT
Open Market Purchase
Cost $88,350.00
whaz, you're the only one on this thread who has an original thought.
Yo! All you Congenital Bears..
Have you ever heard the saying:
"Denial is not just a river in Egypt"
or something like that?
Chaos Theory
The Day The Chips Bounce Back
Arik Hesseldahl, 11.20.02, 8:43 AM ET
LAS VEGAS - Mark your calendars. There's an upturn coming in the semiconductors industry, and it starts on June 21, 2003.
That's the prediction from Brian Halla, president and chief executive of National Semiconductor (nyse: NSM - news - people ).
What started as a public relations gimmick to encourage attendance at his keynote address at the Comdex trade show held here this week, apparently has some solid mathematical and economic reasoning behind it. Using about two decades of semiconductor sales data, Halla worked with Dr. Amad Bahai, a professor at Stanford University, to build a complex mathematical model that incorporated chaos theory, neural networks, linear and nonlinear regression techniques and deterministic progression.
The prediction builds on the ups and downs of chip sales data through three important boom-and-bust cycles. The first peaked in roughly 1974, as demand for mainframe computers spurred semiconductor demand. The second came in the 1980s, with the dawn of the personal computer. The third peaked in 2000.
Does Halla's prediction still sound like a public relations gimmick? Maybe, but if nothing else, he is playing the optimist in an industry that badly needs one. Global chip sales fell so acutely in 2001--32% from 2000--that it is being called the industry's worst year ever. This year is proving to be better, but only marginally so. Global chip sales this year should improve by less than 2% over last year, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association. Take that in comparison to the 37% by which global chip sales grew from 1999 to 2000.
Halla's predictions aren't too far from off from the trade group's forecast for 2003, which calls for chip sales to grow by about 19%. But even at that rate, sales would still be behind their year-2000 levels.
If there's anything to be learned from the up-and-down cycles in chip sales, it's that market conditions can turn on a dime. Remember the summer of 2000 when it seemed that every kind of chip, from flash memory for mobile phones to microprocessors and PC memory chips was in short supply? It was apparent by that fall that the downturn was beginning, and it wasn't long before forecasters were calling for the grim 2001 that ultimately came true.
"The recovery will start before anyone realizes it," says Hans Geyer, an Intel (nasdaq: INTC - news - people ) vice-president who's watched his own share of boom-and-bust cycles in the chip business. He runs the division that produces the Xscale chips used so widely in Pocket PC handheld computers. "It will happen so rapidly that it will take a few weeks before anyone knows it has happened."
So when does Geyer think the recovery will hit? He hedged his bet: "On a Thursday."
For the record, the date that Halla selected is a Saturday.
Exactly my point.
What is the new reality? The ticker of course.
The market is shrugging off bad news and heading higher. What more do you need?
By the time it's clear to everyone, it will be time to go short again.
Re: Mindlessness:
How many inveterate bulls could not believe what was happening to them back in Spring, 2000 when the future was so bright one needed sunglasses? Now the same phenomenon is happening to the congenital bears...
It's an interesting psychological observation.. watching this disbelief, this unwillingness or inability to change one's perception to account for a new reality..
It really is Mindless...
Ok what's your mantra?
Money money money?
Get some rest.
Later
Alright already. I thought every good Day Trader knew these laws:
Ohm discovered the fundamental law of the electric circuits by analogy with the phenomenon of the propagation of the heat by conduction.
As the heat flux Q/t = KS (T1-T2)/L (calories/second) goes across a layer of a conducting material with the lenght L, between whose sides, having the section S,exists a given difference of temperature T1-T2 , with T1>T2 , so the electric current intensity I = Q/t (that is the ratio electric charge/second) that goes across a conducting wire, with the lenght L and the section S, is directly proportional to the potential difference V1-V2 applied to the extremes of the wire:
I = k S (V1 - V2)/L, where k is a constant (the so-called specific conductivity), depending on the conducting material.
The electric current I is directed, by convention, as the thermal one, from the points at a greater potential (V1) toward the ones at a lower potential (V2).
In fact, although is still operating this convention, established before the discovery of electron, however we know that the effective direction of the current in an electric conductor is the same as the one of electrons, that,by means of their negative electric charge,are moving from the points at a lower potential toward the ones at a greater potential.
If we rewrite Ohm's law as V1 - V2 = I [L/(Sk)] = I R, the constant
R = L/(Sk), called resistance, evidences the direct proportionality between I and V1 - V2 , and is directly proportional to the lenght L of the conducting wire ed inversely proportional to its section S.
Thermal, having to do with HEAT...
I get it!
leekster, one for you. Who discovered these laws?
First law of thermaldynamics: You cannot win (in life).
Second law of thermaldynamics: You cannot breakeven.
Zero law of thermaldynamics: You cannot get out of the game.
Give me an answer, and I'll give you a clue, boobaloo.
Ralph Waldo Emerson.
"A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines. With consistency a great soul has simply nothing to do. He may as well concern himself with his shadow on the wall. Speak what you think now in hard words, and to-morrow speak what to-morrow thinks in hard words again, though it contradict every thing you said to-day."
-- Ralph Waldo Emerson
A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines.