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And from where do you get the $30k number? An assumption of the terms with SMP, combined with the stated value of total inventory? You don't know what each robot costs. It's just a guess, isn't it? Guesses can be far off the mark. The fact is, we don't know how many robots they have in their inventory, so you have merely made an assumption about the cost of each robot. I think the robots are far less expensive than you are assuming them to be.
I, too, mentioned this several weeks ago on the board. According to Maxim's website, they aren't only involved in investment banking. They provide wealth management services for high value clients. This may or may not include brokering convertible debt transactions for those clients, although TBH I don't know exactly how those transactions are handled. It is possible that Maxim's activity could be agency transactions executed on the open market for high-value clients and not necessarily dilutive shares. Because ALL of our transactions, yours, mine, theirs (as long as no SEC filing threshold is triggered) are private, nobody can characterize with 100% certainty what any particular transaction represents. The only certainty we can find is in the SEC filings which update us on the OS as of the specified date in said filing.
NightScoop, that's too funny!
Stock promotion is not illegal if done within guidelines, and It doesn't seem that OMVS has to disclose payments:
Among other lessons, the decisions provide that an issuer (1) has no statutory duty under Section 17(b) of the Securities Act of 1933 (“Securities Act”) to disclose promotional payments made to third-party publishers
You don't get what he's saying. I saw it, too. You wrote that Steve was "defending the naysayers." You should have written, "defending against the naysayers." Completely different meaning.
Not saying that OMVS has a relationship with them, but since they were mentioned on this board before I will say that CDW is an integrator:
CDW Corporation (CDW) is a provider of integrated information technology (IT) solutions in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom.
What is the current shares outstanding? Give us a number and we will bookmark the post and when we get an 8k or the 10Q we can compare.
Be honest, Kelli. Firstly, no one here knows exactly what the OS currently is whether they are bullish or bearish on the stock. Second, the math involved in inferring the cost of each bot hinges on a guess about what the gross margin is. That guess was based on what CDW's gross margin is (16%), but CDW is a very diversified company that sells both goods and services. And those goods (computer, networking, and security hardware) and IT services are very commonly found elsewhere. At its core RAD/OMVS appears to be a rental company in a space where currently very few others rent security robots. What are gross margins within the rental company sector? One source indicates 65.57% in Q2 2017, with an average over the last 4 quarters of 72.4%:
https://csimarket.com/Industry/industry_Profitability_Ratios.php?ind=913
Ha! You guys are two sides of the same coin. Really, though, I'd be perfectly happy with $1.00 per share. We'll see what actually happens in due time. If they fail, you'll be right. Even if bux is wrong by 90% ($10 pps) it's still over a hundred-bagger from here. I'm not betting the farm, but I'm still betting.
but then that would only have the last quarters [sic] numbers, not recent
Fascinating discussion here about robots and how humans become attached to them:
http://one.npr.org/?sharedMediaId=536043276:536505014
Excellent comprehensive view of the situation, JB. I agree with everything you said.
I couldn't find exactly what I was reading, but here's an excerpt from the SEC language:
https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/240.13d-3
(b) Any person who, directly or indirectly, creates or uses a trust, proxy, power of attorney, pooling arrangement or any other contract, arrangement, or device with the purpose of effect of divesting such person of beneficial ownership of a security or preventing the vesting of such beneficial ownership as part of a plan or scheme to evade the reporting requirements of section 13(d) or (g) of the Act shall be deemed for purposes of such sections to be the beneficial owner of such security.
Good point. Don't kill the golden goose. Let's hope OMVS gives them a reason to hold onto their shares.
No trader makes perfect decisions. Cheds deserves credit for putting himself out there. And he's teaching what he knows.
Knightscope shares are still private, aren't they? I can't find any indication of a stock symbol, or a date when the shares will hit the open market. I would love to know if the $3 shares hold their price if freely traded.
But it all hinges on your assumption that OMVS has the same 16% margin as CDW, correct? Because if that's the case I'm willing to bet that the robots are a lot cheaper than you think they are.
Hi, Q. I've speculated that they may already have purchased up to 25 bots with the $500k total that would have been paid after receiving the bots. In the 8k filing we can see robots listed as fixed assets with a cost of $160k. My speculation is that as of June 30 they had 8 robots x $20k = $160k. If that's the case, and they can deploy the total anticipated 20 robots by year's end, then they would have cash flow from these units. I'd like your thoughts on that. It seems to me that, although the robots may have come at the high price of recent dilution, the cash flow from their deployment could change the dynamic here.
Lol, I don't have a twitter account, or Facebook for that matter.
Yeah sure, some questions I'm sure many would like to be answered, but I'm sure just preparing those filings alone takes away from actual work that needs to be done to further the business goals. Llike they said, 1200 or so emails in one day asking when merger will be done?! Everyone wants to know everything and they want to know it right now. Well, aren't the filings the means to convey business details like assets, cash flow, etc, etc? That IS the proper channel to put out this info - and people are whining because it is on a quarterly schedule. Then, they pressure the company to answer it on twitter, or put it in a PR. Maybe they can provide updates in an 8k filing, but I'm not expert enough to know if/when it is required and maybe they just don't have the time/money to put one out just because of impatient investors. I'm sure the lawyers hit them with nice bills every time they want to file something with the SEC. Personally, I try to compensate for the lack of information by not having a static position. I will buy low and sell high, use technicals and tape action to try and do this. And yes, I read as much of the filings and news and message board postings as I can, but I've got a day job, family, other interests so I can understand if Steve is trying to prioritize his time.
Well, I'm not an accountant but I would expect the bots should show up as assets in the next 10q since the merger completed Aug 28 and the quarter ended Aug 31.
No prob. And coincidentally the 25 bot count derived from my estimate seems to line up nicely with the 20 expected to be deployed by the end of 2017
That's 25 bots using my $20k estimate. I totally missed that, by the way. They've actually proceeded with purchase of bots. That's a great find!
Really, not satisfied with the $36k? I think a few bots could cover a single tech working a territory if they find hungry, handy, entrepreneurial people with a van and some tools. These techs could work out of their own home. They keep the most commonly problematic spare parts on hand and when they need to do a service call they use their own vehicle. 3 bots, $108k per year. Median personal income in US for 2015 is $30,240, but it's a tech job so let's give him $45k. That's $63k cleared per year for 3 bots. Cut $5k for cost of parts and it's $58k per 3 bots. How many bots do they expect a single tech to cover? I have no idea, but if they can/are expected to cover more bots and pay doesn't scale 1:1 then the more money RAD gets. Maybe base $45k and extra $1000 per year per additional bot, something like that. So, if a tech can cover 10 bots they get $45k + $10k = $55k/yr, something like that. Who knows? All I did was click a mouse and buy a stock, I don't work there! Anyway, 10 bots is $360k/yr - $55k to tech - $50k maintenance parts = $255k per year from 10 bots. Take my generous cost estimate of $20k per bot and they pay for them in the first 9.5 months. Yr1 = $55k, Yr2 = $255k, Yr3 = $255k. That's average $188k per 10 bots per year cleared. It's $18.8k per bot per year. That's $10.5 million cleared from the $20 million recurring revenue they project by the end of 2018. I think he projected $8 million EBITDA? I guess my $10.5 million number would be EBITDA? A bit high, but the above is a guess at the breakdown. Then again, the extra $2.5 million could cover expenses at the main office, LOL. Anyway, it's all just guessing.
I have to be up early tomorrow to get my butt to work. Good night for now.
Oh, absolutely I agree. The lawnmower is $3500, golf cart is $7200. Those are produced in quantity. So is the Chevy Cruze, which starts at $17k. But that's a whole car with a lot bigger build and lots of stuff we don't need, displaced by more specialized stuff we do. Totally within the ballpark to say the bot could be made for less than the Chevy Cruze, I think.
Hi, buzz.
buzzabby: These are not cheap to produce
The SEC has guidelines defining what constitutes a group, so you're example might not escape the definition of a group. I was reading about this a couple of weeks ago. I'll see if I can find it again on the web.
Good point about the revs being as of June! The next filing we should see will be the 10Q for the quarter ended AUGUST 31, which is due by Oct 16. They can file a 5 day extension and report by Oct 23 if need be. Who knows, maybe we'll see the 10Q early, but I don't think so. We could see an 8k before the 10Q for various reasons, or see other SEC forms filed like a change in position for >=5% holders, but the 10Q for sure if they are continuing to file quarterly. Anyway, hopefully we will see some revs or at least more customer deposits like the $20k shown in the 8K. People are freaking out about $2k in revs, but the data is more than 2 months old.
Awesome! Good to hear, biglou. 50% upswing from the low was a huge move today.
Well done, Milo. Your plan is a good one. I did sell some on the way up, but started to repurchase a bit high. Still in it for the long haul, but I too do not believe in a totally static position. I will buy weakness and sell strength to adjust my risk on an ongoing basis.
I have a rock that I keep in my home. It keeps tigers away. I know it works because I have never been attacked by a tiger in my home. Some call it coincidence, but I believe it.
Let's be honest. It didn't come down this far because there's a gap. And some have already debated that it is not a gap because the trading range for both days overlaps. It came down this far because of broken support, aggressive sellers, and fearful bidders.
True. It is disappointing that there are not more restrictions on toxic financing. It is basically a riskless transaction for the convertible noteholder if the stock can run up enough. It gives the company money, but at a severe cost. If regulations can be put in place that are much more middle-of-the-road then the lenders and the stockholders can be on more even ground.
True, but revenues give them operating cash
Well, Steve could very well have issued the pre-merger convertibles on Parsons's recommendation. I think he's just a tech geek that came by an opportunity to see his life's work pay off. Maybe OMVS wasn't the best choice, but maybe Steve just seized the first opportunity that was presented to him and didn't shop around.
Ugh, please never put all of your funds into a single stock!
Well, they did need to pay lawyers and accountants for the merger. I'm sure that took up much of their resources lately, both time and money. I did see $20,000 in customer deposits listed in the 8k. That was probably for the 2 bots given to the "large companies" that are evaluating them for Proof of Concept. But, I don't think they can use that money for anything. I believe it has to be held in escrow. My thought was that they could get upfront money when delivering a bot, like the money you put down when you lease a car. They can then take that money and flip it towards securing the next bot for the next deployment. With a net 30 or net 60 arrangement they could get a time offset on their payments to suppliers so they can get the ball rolling with less initial money. Then, when the monthly lease payments start they will have more available cash to work with. If they can do all that they will not have to be as dependent on issuance of convertible debt going forward.
Here it is. Section 8: Other Events
https://www.sec.gov/fast-answers/answersform8khtm.html
Item 8.01
Other Events (The registrant can use this Item to report events that are not specifically called for by Form 8-K, that the registrant considers to be of importance to security holders.)
Could they do what you are suggesting using an 8k? There are certain corporate actions that trigger the requirement of filing an 8k, but can they file one voluntarily?
10q should be out by Oct 23rd if they file the 5 day extension, otherwise Oct 16
Well we don't know how much is from dilution and how much is from fear of dilution. We will find out eventually, though.