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Dan
Got rhodium?
I've got a ton of VGPMX, and I let them buy the rhodium (LNMIY is one way). How do you get it?
Dan - To avoid misunderstanding, I should have included the prior targets from CIBC. The NXG prior target was $2.30, so $2.85 is a raise.
Granted, it's sometimes hard to make sense of what analysts do. The same analyst has NEM as "underperform", but his prior/current targets are $65 and $76.
He also has a target of $65 for GLG. Either he knows something I don't know (and that the rest of the market doesn't know) or he's nuts...
You can try this:
http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/MarketAnalysis/Calendars/UpgradesDowngradesBrokerSort.htm
I doubt it is a typo, though. He has it as an "underperform", so he's clearly negative on it.
CIBC analyst raised his targets on 16 miners this morning. I imagine he's cleaning out his desk right now...
Some you may be interested in:
GSS - to $4.50
GFI - to $35
BGO - to $9
NXG - to $2.85
EGO - to $8.10
Looks like we'll have the biggest opening drop (in percentage terms) in the POG in over six years!
$US being bought up on news that the BoJ won't be raising rates...
Dan - Thanks for Roach. Did you pick up any GRZ when it went below $7 yesterday?
Dan... My "decision" to swap GRZ for NXG, which looked bad for a while, is looking good now. Still, I've been thinking of getting back into GRZ. Do you think its recent big drop is due to:
1) it was way overbought
2) everyone is worried about Chavez
3) something else?
Now that's a different point of view. This guy should have a duel with Fleckenstein, who is convinced that the Fed will stop raising very soon, and will not defend the $US.
I guess it may depend on how long it takes the economy to tank. If the housing market goes into sudden collapse, I can't see the Fed not responding with rate cuts.
Sounds good... Silver getting clocked this morning, but I guess it was due for a correction.
What's incredible is that the $US Index, in spite of today's little dip, is holding up quite well. Looks like the stregth in PM's is saying either that people think the $US Index will collapse, or they're saying that maybe it won't, but only because all the big currencies go down together...
Dan - What I said was "Cramer's nearly always right in the short term, because of his following". IOW, he's "right", because his following causes the stock's price to move in the direction he indicates. When he's actually wrong about the the stock in the fundamental sense, that move won't last very long. In the case of NXG, there was no downward move at all the next day, because Gold was up almost 1%.
...and, as I said, I quadrupled my position, which is certainly a vote of confidence, not that my confidence is worth much, when it comes to minor miners.
I dunno... maybe Cramer is right. he's nearly always right in the short term, because of his following. I have to wonder where he gets his information, and what the motivations are of the people supplying it.
I only had 500 shares, so I quadrupled that, and I still have a "smallish" position, which I think I'll just forget about.
Dan re Russell - That's what I've been thinking for years. The world is swimming in money, and the deflationary effect of China on labor markets is forcing that money into stocks and real estate.
This isn't going to change. The Fed will TALK tough about inflation, all the while running the printing presses overtime...
Dan - Thanks for the advice, but I've been enjoying an early retirement since I was 47. I think I may double my smallish NXG position, though.
I was asking for your opinion about the feasibility of mining a vein like that. I'm assuming that you must have been a mining engineeer before you got hooked on fishing <g>
Dan (NXG) - Looks good. Looking at their diagram, though, it strikes me that the mining process for this would be quite expensive, due to the near-vertical quality of the mineralized rock. Do you have an opinion?
Jeez - I bailed out of BOL today. Sometimes I just get lucky...
Thanks Dan... that $201 for CLG seems pretty good, though it may collide with the reality of actually finding people to work up there. The oil-sands companies are starting to have trouble, and Fort MacMurry is Miami compared to Nunavut.
I think I'll double my smallish MNG position, though, wait until Monday to see if I want to pile on BVN (if the Peruvian election on Sunday goes well)...
Good move, Choad. I thought about buying that, then thought again, then again, etc...
Needless to say, I haven't gotten around to doing it.
Seems like a good complement to PM's. If the Fed really tries to fight inflation (which would surprise the hell out of me), the RYJUX should do very well. If the don't try, then the PM's will take off...
Hi Choad... do you know if MNG or CLG or other Arctic miners have said much about their probable costs? Between maintenance, much-greater-than-average personnel costs, and even possibly a shortened workyear, I can see them being pretty expensive.
That's not necessarily bad, by the way, since, once they become profitable their leverage to a rising POG is much higher than the low-cost miners...
Dan
I hope a good portion of that $85m went into Chavistas' pockets. I know they're revolutionaries and supposedly above that kind of thing, but this is Venezuela, after all.
Thanks, I had not made that connection...
Holy smokes! GRZ up 13% today (on no news that I can see).
Dan, what are your thoughts on this?
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060124/venezuela_mining.html?.v=2
Seems like GRZ might be one of those companies that the Chavistas consider to be dragging its feet (although I don't believe it really has been)...
Fed Reserves- You'll never see GM go to zero while still in the DJIA. It's already by far the lowest cap stock there, and it won't be there at all for very long.
Dan - Should be interesting. GLD certainly did not do well for a while after it opened.
Someone was bidding $8.50 for CEF after hours, so i was happy to unload to them...
Choad - No, not in jest. I think Canadian companies are pretty safe from Chavez. Even if they aren't, they're safer than American companies, hence, the preference for Kamloops over Spokane.
Thanks much. Y'know, I didn't realize that GRZ was Canadian. I think that, if they moved those Spokane office to Kamloops, they wouldn't be in much danger from Chavez at all.
Dan,
Two more of your recommendations which I've held since October 2004 (when the POG was $423),
MNG: +151%
GRZ: +23% (after falling 61%)
Any thoughts on GRZ? Are they getting along with Chavez ok?
Well, I sure hope you're right, because I own a boatload of it.
I notice that CEF was down today in spite of Silver being up. I guess maybe CEF will temporarily lose some of its following as people get into the ETF where they don't have to pay CEF's premium to NAV (currently around 7%?)...
c4t - thanks! that's big... I'm surprised Silver was not up even more than it was today.
Dan - have you seen anything today about the SEC approving a Silver ETF? I find it hard to believe that they would ever do so, given how tight the market is, but Fleckenstein said today that they "apparently" had...
WTZ being bought out. Up about 120% from October 2004, when you recommended it. Muchas gracias!
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060224/20060224005230.html?.v=1
A/C - thanks! My stock picks are based on a whole arrray of parameters, about 80% of which are fundamental. I have found, though, by backtesting, that I can enhance my returns by adding when RSI/5 is under 30 and cutting way back when it's over 65. I was wondering if perhaps there might be some kind of indications from various relationships of longer and short term RSI's, although I can't find one and, thinking about it, I can't see why there should be.
I'd like to look into MACD. I calculate my own RSI's (a pain, but I finally figured out how to do ti and wrote a program to make it faster). Is there some site that might explain to me how to calculate MACD's?
I'll bite... what is getting close? Market open in Asia?
LOL... if you can't beat'em, join'em!
Question re RSI - Does anyone here use RSI as a valuable indicator? After much research, I've concluded that if one is holding a portfolio of stocks (bought based on other criteria, either FA or TA), it is worthwhile to lighten up on stocks with 5-day RSI's over 70, and increase holdings of stocks with RSI's under 30.
Any thoughts on the best number of days to use for RSI's, or how combinations of short- and medium-term RSI's (say 5-day and 14-day) can be used?
TIA
Whatever the reason for Japanese selling, the Japanese have a reputation for buying at market tops, which they seem to have done.
I certainly don't see $540 as the top, or anywhere near it, but it might be the top for a while. The last two years, Gold topped about now, and didn't recover until the following September...
Dan, thanks very much for the Roach (and all the others). One of these days, he's going to be right, and that's going to be a grim day for the U.S. asset markets.
Thing is, he could have written exactly the same article a year ago (maybe he did?), and I'd guess he'll be able to write it again a year from now. These imbalances have a way of going on a lot longer than the skeptics think possible...
Thanks, Dan. If anyone wants to see the case for Gold, there it is.
Buy the Dow for an ounce? Sounds wonderful but, if that were ever possible again, I'd probably pass...
Not "we". As a lifelong Bills fan, I can't stand to watch...