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auto is holding us at the .15 level once we get by him we are clear...
i firmly believe something positive is going on behind the silence...i also believe as in the rest of the maket things are starting to heat up in areas that have been silent for a long time too.....
Welcome Back, Bull Market
by Jon Markman
Monday, December 13, 2010
ShareretweetEmailPrintCommentary: Greed returns to Wall Street, and it's about time
SEATTLE (MarketWatch) — Like the swallows returning to San Juan Capistrano signal the start of spring, the return of hostile takeovers and one-day IPO doubles heralds a return of the bull market to Wall Street.
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Two years ago at this time, it was "Get me out of IBM at any price, stat!" Now Chinese dot-coms are jumping 150% before the coffee cools, and corporate boards are hoisting the Jolly Roger to prey on wounded rivals.
This sentiment swing is much clearer than any statistical review could be. Forget that stocks have walked up and down the unchanged line in the past week like prisoners on a chain gang. The fact is that the smell of greed is in the air, raising the curtain on a new year likely to brim with excess and more excess.
Latest evidence came out of the blue late Thursday with word that Community Health Systems Inc.(NYSE: CYH - News), had launched an unsolicited bid for Tenet Healthcare Corp. (NYSE: THC - News) at $6 a share, a 43% premium over that afternoon's close.
The transaction would run $7.3 billion, with $3.3 billion in equity and $4 billion in debt. The offer was originally made in a letter to the Tenet board on November 12, and rejected on December 6. The battle became public when Community fired off another letter to Tenet late this week.
Get your game on
This is exciting. When was the last time we had a hostile bid on the wire? It's like the mid-1980s all over again. Gordon Gekko is in the house! It just goes to show the urgency that companies are feeling to put their cash to work, and the compulsion to consolidate to save costs. The combined company would have around $22 billion in annual revenue and own or operate 176 hospitals in 30 states with 32,830 beds.
Just hearing the symbol THC evoked memories of a different time and place for those who have been covering the market or trading for a couple of decades. Feast your eyes on the accompanying chart, to recollect a moment in time when hospital stocks were the hot momentum names and THC was the king of kings.
Back in the graveyard of dot-coms that was the 2000-2002 bear market, the market needed heroes and THC was it. Until, well, there was this matter of a federal investigation. And suddenly the whole group tipped over like a badly placed bedpan.
I mention this to remind that the market suffers from fads when money is loose and strays from fundamentals. A sector can get hot for six months or two years, and when it is on fire every argument in the world is mustered to explain why it will never end. And then it ends, poof, in tears, and won't come back for years.
So as the coming bull cycle begins to cast its spell, remind yourself of that fact whenever you feel you are falling in love with emerging markets, or digital storage device makers, or virtualization software makers or high-energy food makers. You want to be a part of the fad, but you must be ready, mentally and physically, to grab your keys and walk.
In that context, here are some more bull market tips for those who are new at this.
Fads: They will burn a hole in the part of your brain where common sense lives. If you start to study valuation metrics that are based on anything but price, sales, or book value, check yourself into rehab.
Emerging markets: Love them when the dollar is falling. Love them while they are rising. Love them because that is where the greatest growth in the world is occurring. But soon as you hear the magic words "capital controls," take the next Tata out of town.
Twitter & Facebook: They will go public, and the public will go crazy. They will be seen as the next Google, Amazon.com, and Netflix, and puffed into the biggest hype bubble since, well, Google, Amazon.com and Netflix.
But please, read the S-1 prospectus. Try to figure out how they will actually earn money from their ubiquity — which they do not do at present. Google was profitable almost from day one. Amazon.com was focused on commerce from day one. Netflix, same. But advertising and commercial leverage have been shunned with Twitter and Facebook — two arch practitioners of hippie capitalism. I'm not saying they will flame out; I'm just saying that the current profitability mantra which goes, "We'll figure it out," should make you squeamish.
Believe big: Now for some guidance that purposely contradicts the prior three points. You see, cheap money and rising stock prices act like nitrogen-laced Red Bulls on the imagination of entrepreneurs.
Success breeds success, and over the next few years you will see products, services and companies you cannot even imagine today. So don't get too skeptical. Dream a little. Remember that bubbles are only bad when they pop. When they are expanding, they are money-making machines without parallel. Keep the antidote close at hand, but don't let fear of trouble down the road prevent you from enjoying the journey in the present.
Energy and materials, banks and tech: Early in the business cycle, as a new generation of MBAs, buyout artists and social programming princelings get the lay of the land, the great old-fashioned sectors of yore will carry the day.
Look to oil and gas producers, oilfield service providers, coal miners, steel makers and refiners, regional banks whose balance sheets are clean and ready for new loans. In the land of digerati, focus on chip equipment makers, device makers and network speed and security providers.
These companies are mostly still nursing wounds from the last decade of investment sadness, and their shares won't be cheap for long. Start here, and work your way up the value chain later. Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE: SLB - News), Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY - News), Tesoro Corp. (NYSE: TSO - News), ARM Holdings Plc (NYSE: ARMH - News), Apple Inc. (NYSE: AAPL - News), F5 Networks Inc. (NYSE: FFIV - News), Broadcom Corp. (NYSE: BRCM - News), Google Inc. (NYSE: GOOG - News). These stocks are like your black dress or blue tie. They are basics that go with everything.
Japan and Europe: Both are messed up in different ways, but they've been around a long time and will figure out how to rebound. If the Continent could make it out of the Dark Ages, and Japan could survive two atomic bombs, I am pretty sure they can survive the age of technopop and anime. Well, technopop anyway.
In summary, if the latest signs of an economic spring are right, it is time to prepare to be swept off your feet. Still, be sure the brakes are close at hand — just don't squeeze too tight.
Jon Markman is a money manager and investment adviser in Seattle. For more ideas like these, try a two-week trial to Markman's daily investment newsletter, Strategic Advantage, published in partnership with MarketWatch, or his daily trading newsletter, Trader's Advantage. His Twitter feed is @jdmarkman.
Jon Markman is a MarketWatch columnist. He runs a money-management and investment-advisory firm in Seattle.
Airbus forecasts faster recovery for industry
Airbus forecasts faster-than-expected recovery for plane-making industry over next 20 years
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Symbol Price Change
BA 64.16 0.00
{"s" : "ba","k" : "a00,a50,b00,b60,c10,g00,h00,l10,p20,t10,v00","o" : "","j" : ""} Angela Doland, Associated Press, On Monday December 13, 2010, 8:04 am
COLOMIERS, France (AP) -- The global aircraft industry will recover faster than expected, according to European manufacturer Airbus, which on Monday predicted about $3.2 trillion (euro2.4 trillion) in new passenger and freighter planes will be needed over the next 20 years.
The figure translates to nearly 26,000 aircraft, up from its earlier forecast for 25,000.
Growing interest in more eco-friendly planes, strong growth in new markets and the expansion of low-cost airlines in Asia will help propel demand over the two decades, Airbus said at a presentation near its headquarters in southwest France.
The 2010-2029 market forecast came after several recent setbacks for the European consortium.
On Nov. 4, a Qantas A380 superjumbo -- the company's star plane -- made a safe emergency landing in Singapore in what was the most significant safety issue yet for the giant jumbo since it began passenger flights in 2007.
In recent days, media reports emerged that a French investigating judge had placed Airbus' chief operating officer, John Leahy, under investigation -- a step short of formal charges -- for insider trading.
The long-standing judicial probe has targeted several executives of Airbus and its parent company EADS. Last year, a similar investigation by the French market regulator cleared them, saying there was no evidence they used knowledge of delays to the A380 superjumbo program when selling shares or exercising stock options worth millions of euros (dollars) in 2005 and early 2006.
Leahy said he was disappointed that a judge was pursuing the case when the French regulator, the AMF, had already cleared those involved.
"We were all shown to be innocent by the AMF, who are the real experts in this," Leahy told reporters.
EADS released a statement saying it had "full confidence" in those involved and said it was convinced they would be "be proved innocent once again."
Addressing the Qantas emergency landing, Leahy criticized engine-maker Rolls-Royce's public relations and communications after the incident, suggesting the company hadn't been forthcoming enough. An oil leak had caused the plane's Rolls-Royce Trent 900 engine to disintegrate in mid-air -- an event that led to a global safety review of the world's biggest jetliner.
But Leahy said Rolls-Royce builds good engines and "they will get this fixed, they have identified the problem and they're implementing the fixes.
"Unfortunately it takes a bit more time than everybody would have liked," he said.
In its global industry review, Airbus' long-term figures were slightly higher than last year's, when it forecast that 25,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft valued at $3.1 trillion would be delivered from 2009 to 2028.
The change reflects "a slightly higher growth rate of 4.8 percent compared to 4.7 percent in 2009," the company said.
In July, Airbus' Chicago-based competitor Boeing Co. said during its annual long-range forecast that the global industry will need $3.6 trillion in new aircraft over the next two decades, or about 30,900 new jets.
The two companies have slightly different criteria on the size of jets they include in their forecasts. Airbus looks at only jets of 100 seats and above, while Boeing includes planes of 90 seats and above.
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Airbus forecasts faster recovery for industry - AP
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you are rite.the majority of this stock is in long term hands now..there is a lil that you see floating around and that is where we are seeing the ups and downs on small volume....alot will look back at theses prices and wish they had bought more for christmas...jmho..
couple of dollar trades trying to bait peeps into selling..dont fall for it...its just their lil games..have a safe and happy weekend all...better days are around the corner..jmho
tic toc tic toc.....this may catch a few watching the clock...
it has been looking like small accumulation takeing place between bid and ask for about 2 weeks...think we are moving towards something very soon
extending the bush tax incentives is major..and yes i agree this gives the repubs the time to get control...one piece at a time my` friend..
this should help businesses and investors
Tax deal should help economy, analysts say
White House-GOP tax-cut deal should boost economic growth and create jobs, analysts say
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President Barack Obama gestrues during a news conference in the White House briefing room in Washington, Tuesday, Dec. 7, 2010. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)
Paul Wiseman and Jeannine Aversa, AP Economic Writers, On Tuesday December 7, 2010, 7:26 pm EST
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The tax deal struck by President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans essentially gives Americans a pay raise -- pumping money into the economy almost immediately and probably creating hundreds of thousands of jobs over the next two years, economists say.
The compromise already has economists raising their forecasts for growth next year, mainly because it includes a surprising one-year cut in Social Security taxes. The amount of that cut -- 2 percent of pay for most American workers -- instantly becomes more take-home money. Critics complain that the deal would further swell the $1.3 trillion federal budget deficit.
Two central parts of the agreement extend income-tax cuts that would have expired Dec. 31 and renew benefits for the long-term unemployed. Those were both expected. But they still give a psychological boost to shoppers in the midst of the holiday shopping season.
The certainty that income-tax cuts will now remain for at least another year could also reassure Americans and businesses to spend more in 2011 and help rejuvenate the still-sluggish economy.
"It will ensure the economic recovery evolves into a self-sustaining economic expansion," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "Prior to this, I was less sure of that."
Zandi noted that the plan doesn't only put more money in people's pockets. It also gives businesses more incentives to invest by increasing tax write-offs for new equipment. Zandi has raised his forecast for economic growth next year from 2.7 percent to 4 percent. Economists at JPMorgan Chase have raised theirs from 3 percent to 3.5 percent.
Their old projections had assumed that Congress would approve only an extension of the income-tax cuts Congress enacted in 2001 and 2003.
"It will make a real difference in the lives of the people who sent us here," Obama said Tuesday at a news conference in which he defended concessions he made to Republicans as part of the tax-cut compromise.
Under the deal, the president and the GOP agreed to extend benefits for the long-term unemployed for 13 more months. That aid had expired Nov. 30. Up to 2 million unemployed people would have run out of benefits by year's end.
Economists note that cutting Social Security taxes and extending unemployment benefits are among the most effective ways that policymakers can energize the economy. Both steps free up more cash for low- and moderate-income families who are most likely to spend it.
The one-year reduction in Social Security taxes amounts to a cut in the rate from 6.2 percent of gross income to 4.2 percent. A worker earning $40,000 a year would receive an $800 windfall. Someone earning $100,000 would take home $2,000 more.
The activist group Citizens for Tax Justice estimates that the plan would save the average taxpayer just under $3,000 next year. The top 1 percent of earners would save nearly $77,000 on average. And the poorest 20 percent would get an average tax break of just $396.
Economists at Deutsche Bank say the Social Security tax cut alone would increase economic growth by 0.7 percent next year. The Center for American Progress estimates that it would create 720,000 jobs within two years.
On long-term unemployment aid, the Labor Department says every $1 spent generates $2 in economic growth. The Center for American Progress predicts that extending those benefits through next year will generate or save 520,000 jobs.
The White House and Republicans also agreed to extend tax breaks to low-income families. And businesses will be able to write off 100 percent of their investments in equipment next year, up from 50 percent.
The deal also limits the estate tax to 35 percent of estates on any value above $5 million. Obama had wanted to impose a 45 percent tax on estates starting at $3.5 million. Michael Linden, a tax policy specialist at the Center for American Progress, estimates that only about 3,200 estates a year would have to pay estate taxes under the plan.
"There's no question that people at the top will receive a much, much larger per-person benefit" from the tax plan, Linden says.
That's because of the lower estate-tax rate and the extension of income tax cuts for everyone, regardless of income. Obama had opposed an extension of the tax cuts for the highest-earning Americans.
The deal should also ease both political and economic pressure on the Federal Reserve and its embattled chairman, Ben Bernanke. Last month, Bernanke pushed the Fed to start buying $600 billion in government bonds to try to help stimulate the economy. That decision came under fire from Republican leaders on Capitol Hill. Some said they feared the Fed's action will spur inflation and lead to speculative buying on Wall Street.
Bernanke acted at a time when Congress seemed unlikely to approve any new stimulus money for the economy. But the new agreement, especially the Social Security tax cut, amounts to a stimulus by another name.
Now the spotlight will turn to Congress and tax cuts. And critics are warning that the plan could push the federal budget deficit to new record highs.
Analysts at BNP Paribas estimate the cost of the package at $1 trillion over two years. That would increase the federal deficit in the 2012 budget year from 6.9 percent of the nation's gross domestic product to what BNP calls a "much scarier" 9.8 percent.
Some critics said the scope of the tax-cut deal seems jarring at a time when the leaders of a presidential deficit commission have just proposed a mix of spending cuts and tax increases to slash the budget over the coming decade.
"This feels more than a bit surreal," said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. "It's utterly exasperating."
Congress still must approve the plan. And many liberals are balking at extending the tax cuts for the highest-earning taxpayers at the cost of even larger deficits.
Congress should "not lower taxes for people who are already extraordinarily wealthy and increase the national debt that our children and grandchildren would have to pay,"' said Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., said
Analysts expect the plan to pass anyway because of how fragile the economy remains.
"Raising taxes on everybody in January would have put a real dent in the economy," said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo.
AP Economics Writer Christopher Rugaber contributed to this report.
yes,im looking for my money bucket too..lol..the end of this month could be exciting...
new week..we just need to keep a little buying pressure on till the news comes which feels very close...
lol...mr.p..im glad you are on the board
the end of that article is interesting mr p...i guess there is quite a bit of activity there...maybe we are connected to one of those..
The airport currently is working with about five other companies about possible economic development projects at the airport, Wuensch said.
By the end of the year, "We'll look back at 2010 as being a very, very successful year," Wuensch said.
the day isnt over..someone may be tryn to pull down to grab bits and pieces ..no huge trades..try to think about why all this accumulation has happened and why the company has not sold shares or diluted in this run..the finish line is in sight ..so beware those trying to get you to sell...jmho
my guess is someone put a market order in by mistake or not knowing any better and those rat market makers dropped it to fill then moved rite back up...mr.p i really think we are close to good news that will stop all this...
bodes well for anyone in transportation
by Tomi Kilgore
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
ShareretweetEmailPrintCommentary: Investors may be smart to trust transports
The Dow Jones Transportation Average (NYSE: DJT - News) is on track to close at its highest level in more than two years, which would officially mark the end of the index's pullback since April. Now all the market needs is for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DJIA - News)Â to follow.
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According to the Dow Theory of market analysis, which was borne from a series of articles published in The Wall Street Journal by Charles Dow at the turn of the 20th century, new highs in the Dow transports need to be substantiated by new highs in the Dow industrials to confirm that the primary trend is up. The belief is, it's not enough to just make the goods or move the goods around the country; a healthy economy needs to do both.
Another tenet of the Dow Theory is that index prices already reflect every knowable piece of information that might affect supply and demand.
The Dow transports surged 135 points to 4,991 in midday trading Wednesday, above the Nov. 5 intraday high of 4,984, following better-than-expected economic data from both the U.S. and abroad. Meanwhile, the Dow industrials climbed 253 points to 11,259, but were still well below the Nov. 5 high of 11,452.
The theory doesn't say which index should lead the other, and the transports have been wrong before. For example, the last bull market was led by the Dow industrials, which turned lower from an all-time high in October 2007. The Dow transports didn't top out until seven months later.
In the current environment, investors may do better to trust the transports' take on the economy.
When fears of a double-dip recession were escalating in early July, the Dow industrials slumped to a new low for the year and created some ominous longer-term bearish technical patterns such as a "death cross" and a "head-and-shoulders."
Meanwhile, the transports' July low was well above the February low, and there was no bearish "head-and-shoulders" pattern.
Basically, the transports were right not to confirm the industrials' doom-and-gloom scenario on the way down, so why not trust them on the way back up?
Separately, the Dow transports are also showing internal strength, with six of the index's 20 components trading above their respective November highs. Four of those six, including fellow S&P 500 components United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE: UPS - News) , Expeditors International of Washington Inc. (NYSE: EXPD - News)and C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: CHRW - News), have also reached multiyear highs. C.H. Robinson, which provides transportation services and logistics via land, air and sea, hit an all-time high in intraday trading.
Meanwhile, only two of the Dow industrials' 30 components have traded above their November highs. United Technologies Corp. (NYSE: UTX - News) hit a three-year high in intraday trading, while Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT - News)reached an all-time high
___
looks like a little action ..something brewing?
you are in good company.....
there hasnt been alot of selling..most of what came in was bought at the bid by bidsitters.im holding for the news i think is very close..nothing has changed from our run to the twenties,those that sold good luck..those that are holding ,i think we will be very happy...jmho
i dont worry about day to day fluctuations with small volume trades.the big volume days have been on the positive side.look out for small sells trying to scare in some stock for waiting buyers...the best is yet to come...jmho...have i sold any stock?NOT ONE SHARE......
2010 isnt over yet..lol...some of the sellers may get a surprise...jmho...
maybe he will get some help later in the week
dont worry mr.p....ups and downs are part of the process ...
someone is buying those shares too mr.p
i truely believe the best is yet to come...and very soon...there will always be people selling stock for a variety of reasons,however if the news hits we think is coming the buyers will outnumber those sellers and the race will begin...good luck to all..buy sell hold its always up to you..look at the past years history in this stock though most who have sold on the way up have not been able to buy back inalot cheaper so that means our average cost basis has risen...
nite only one left in teens all others in twenties..little bit of buying at askwill take us there...
family,football and turkey....go iahl
probably a combination of thanksgiving and lull in tradeing..in my opinion alot will wish they bought at these levels...wont take much to go back to twenties..if good news hits forget it
happy turkey day to all..be safe and may the upcoming holidays bring us all what we want....
i agree
we have both seen it before..and we have seen major moves after...it will be interesting if there are some buyers tommorow that can put pressure on nite.the others are still in the twenties..
it was a 5 thousand share trade at the bid at 15:57 to drop us..i think nite wants sum cheap stock and is doing what they can to get some sells in..nothing came in at .17 for 3 days..if we hit the ask tommorow i bet he runs and hides..
looks like they are trying to pull in some stock
ask moved back to .21 and nite who came in at .20 moved to .22 on zero trades...a little jockeying for positions taking place by market makers...interesting that their numbers have increased...
lets keep all this moving forward.the past is not relevant to this now..
that other poster made a vague inuendo that he couldnt sell his stock..mr.j proved he could if he wanted too.
i think most of us feel when that is finally released the price will be much higher...accumulation is still taking place.the company while being silent has never sold into rise or increased shares..my take on that is that they must feel it is going higher..those are only my thoughts of course and you should always do what is best for you....
all trades at ask .21 except for 100 shares at .20 was that your final 100 shares you were trying to sell...
market makers on ask.
ubss .21
nite .22
auto .23
csti .25
hsdn .40
doms .75
6 grand just bought at the ask of .21..just what i previously stated...
they will probably tighten the spread to re encourage buying by pulling the ask closer to the bid...gives the apperance of the stock dipping a little but it really not..that way they may scare in a bit of stock..its all the games the market makers play to try and get shareholders to do what they want and /or need...its my opinion that news is around the corner for what its worth..good luck buy ,sell, hold its always up to you..