For what it's worth, Goldman downgraded the Internet social space. PCLN types, twitter, fc, etc.

gld, the problem I have when I comment, is that my comments tend to influence my trading.

It doesn't matter for you since you are not day trading. I think we made the top in some high flyer stocks, but they will still have strong rallies.

IMO the main reason the market went down was just profit taking on high flyers. In advance of the new year, taper in March, and this is the best it can get. But many players CANNOT get 100% out of stocks, they just have too big a position. Thus the strong rallies even in a bear market.

I have seen markets go sideways for 6-12 months before actually tanking in any serious way.

I am out of here, made a profit despite several mistakes and despite my correct read of todays market, I didn't make as much as I should have.

I am out of here till Monday.

Not sure how much downside, but IMO IWM 108.96 was the top for today,

Close enough to my recovery target of 109.

One other thing that affects me, the opinions of others seems to overly influence me.

Which is odd, it doesn't in any other aspect of my life.

I've seen these rides so many times before, it's getting like a rerun.

I hope to hell the market doesn't change much before I can retire.

I don't have to do that, my broker provides a very real demo trading platform that is exactly like real trading.

The only principal difference is that sometimes a trade influenes the market. For instance, if I were to put a big buy or sell on an option, the market would move away from it. Or if someone buys a huge number of calls, it actually pushes the market up.


I think IWM gets above 109 on this recovery.

I wonder if buying a 200 call or put position will make the market not do what you expect.

Three problems I had when paper trading.

I didn't take it seriously enough. Like I would average down in a crazy way I would never do in real trading.

There is a lack of fear. Emotion is what it most difficult for me to deal with. Also, sometimes one should just not trade at all, overtrading is something that is easy for me to do.

Big problem is when I am right I think I didn't make any money. :)

What did help for a time was using Motely? fool web site, they require at least 7 stocks held for more than some time like a week. So it helped be develop a better feel anticipating the future. I got up a high level in their ranking before I got bored.

Not sure paper trading will help or not.

My main problem right now is fear, some impulse control problems and limited to 3 day trades a week.

Now I buy right but it's hard for me to believe the market will go the way I think it will. And if I make a tiny mistake I get disgusted and sell early even if I think in 3 hours I will make money. It's like I can't stand the suspense.

Very funny market, now I must admit, I have no idea if we close positive or negative.

Only there is a lot of fear in the market, you can see it with the way we moved up,down, up. Also PCLN moving down to 950, then back up to 1050 all in premarket.

smart, did you sell your 176 SPY call?

I think you have to do well on your TSLA puts.

I think now TSLA is safer to day trade calls on over sold bounces and if you want to hold over night puts.

I see the calls often double in a short period of time, kind of like Roys counter punching the downtrend. There is still a large short position that will cause a lot of sharp upwards moves.

IMO sometime in the distant future TSLA will be 30-50.

well, I had a bad feeling about the upside, so it lools like more down.

When markets correct, they often go below the 50 MA, assuming we are still in a bull.

So I think the SPX is likely to go below 1707 before people want to jump back in. Since the MA is currently moving up, every day it gets a little higher.

But a correction isn't likely to happen in such a short period of time unless there is fundamental news to drive it. Like FED announcing they will taper in Dec, that would drive the market in a multiday down trend.

Maybe we are flat today or a little upside.

By the end of the day Friday you could be right, I think the twitter IPO delayed the selloff.

No reason we couldn't drop 30 SPY points.

bot SPY 175 calls at -.55 and 0.57 near the close. Not expecting a huge gain, but hoping for lunch money.

I had bot IWM 110 puts near the open at 0.76, for some stupid reason I sold them at 0.99, they went to 2.70. I seem now to be able to buy at a good point, but selling still eludes me. I need drugs to stay calm. A joke, but not entirely. I had 100 contracts, so that would have been more than lunch money.

I tried to buy another 100 an another account that is attached, but got a little screwed up, I had an order in to buy 200 at 0.40, and 100 at 0.72, then another 100 at 0.71, but forgot about the lower order at 0.40. Didn't have enough cash to buy 400 total contracts at the various prices.

I did buy a small position in Apple 515 calls at 1.70, but turned around and sold them for 1.70 losing $12, commish on only 10 contracts. They went down to 1.31 after I sold them, who knows how they open, I don't own them. Only have a call position on SPY, I think the selloff at least for this week is overdone.

I think some sort of smallish relief rally on Friday. Not sure how much. However, the SPY may tank again in the AM.

PCLN is fascinating, it's bidding 1045 now. No idea of where it ends the day on Friday.

LOL,now PCLN is at 1040 in AH trading, down from 1062 -- 950, back to 1040,now about 1035.

Glad I don't try and trade that sucker, it might drive you crazy.

weird, PCLN tanked to 950, now it's back above 1000.

I will never buy option on a stock like that.

gld, it seems to me we started this selloff when Ichan unloaded a big position in NFLX.

The IWM went first, then the qqq and spy.

So that is why I ask you why you think the Qs are the weakest. They are not down as much overall as IWM.

We have been correting for 6 days when I watch the IWM.

On these kinds of selloff, the market usually closes at the low of the day. Just saying.

Likely trade up from what ever is the lows of today. No matter what the jobs reports says.

I think we get another rebound up, but not as strong as the last one.

For me not worth the stress, not that much possible profit I think.

I was thinking that once twitter starts trading, some hedge funds will sell.

Then take the money and put it into the IWM stocks, force some short covering.

So IWN may get back to above 109. AFTER trading in Twitter.

EDIT, just a theory, I was tempted to buy IWM 108 calls at 0.58, it bounced back to 0.75, but I didn't because we are clearing in a correction of the very high PE stocks.

Sometimes I wonder if a hedge fund that is short doesn't cause one of these car fires.

Not that I am cynical about wall street, but it would be worth the cost of a car.

So why do you think the Qs are the weakest?

IWM is the weakest. I think the Qs could go as high as 100+ before the bear.

IWM, SPY / Q, then DIA last would be traditional in a breakdown. Low quality to high quality speculative to conservative.

Hard for me to say if the Qs or SPY is more speculative, but I would vote for the SPY since the Qs broke down in mid 2002 and never went that low in the 2009 market. So I think the Qs will be one of the last indexes to break down.

I can forgive you since I never really believed you or anyone can predict the top ahead of time. The levels you think are the top are at best a small pause that looks for a short time like a top.

The best I can do is see it when it's there. All I see now is a lot of rotation from one stock group to another.

I don't know if you traded in 1999-2000, but hard to predict how high that crazy tulip bulb market went. We all knew it would eventually crash, but we all knew being early on the crash would crush you in trading.

And who could predict how low the 2009 market eventually went?

I think the next biggest danger area is the start of 2014. Perfect time for major profit taking.

The value leaders are still doing OK, but the market it getting narrow. Dia is up and calls are up on that.

why was the market up in an AM, and good reason or any reason at all?

Now 1.40 bid, I would take the 40% as a good 20 min gain.

IWM now 1.30, 30% could be more.

I think buying the IWM 111 weekly at 1.00 is a good bet for 30% gain.

SPXS Nov16 (monthly) calls are a position trade. It works for a long term positional kind of trade.

As you point out, their is no liquidity, not a lot of trading, and a fairly big spread.

You are so good at day trading, I don't see why you want to take this sort of position. And you aren't usually good at predictions longer than overnight.

It could well work, but is it worth it?

But ... Did you do this in an account with less that 25K and thus limited with the number of day trades you can do?

Employment is still too high by FED standards, we don't see any inflation, those are the things that are important to the FED.

The Timing is good when you think about fiscal policy, but that is about it.

I think the market would tank hard if they announced a taper.

So do we sell off after the fed or run higher by the EOD day?

Any guesses, I have none. Obviously the IWM has been week lately.

tsla hit my recovery target of 167+, now I don't have a feeling for which way from 159 it will go.

Not low enough to buy calls, but seems like it won't test the low of 153.

ETIT BTW, I mean won't test the low of 153 either today or early Thurday, who knows after that. Just guessing as always.

Negative bias but I don't have a feel for how much more downside today.

Does look like stocks are market time till the fed announcement.

They know what it will be, but I guess they are getting ready?

But for what? :)

BTW, the market sure gives the impression that the high beta stocks are done for.

But there are sharp rallies in a correction or bear, so timing calls at the right time actually can have higher gains in a ear market. Probably because so many are short and short covering rallies are very sharp and quick.

We aren't in a bear, just saying.

For whatever reason, often when there is an up day at the end of the week, the first trading day the next week is up at least in the AM.

Not sure why, I would have thought it would sell off, but it doesn't.

So Friday AM maybe the peak if there is one.

Many times trading is like a game of chicken.

Who blinks first?

So far most of these stocks like NFLX, apple have spiked higher, sold off then come back part way.

I was surprised that apple did the same.