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Yes, one can only watch and admire such men..captains of industry..giants among their kind..impeccable in their dress and deeds. We can only watch.................
from Walker on public site (posted last night):
"I think we are about to experience a significant rally as the indices are extremely oversold. But in order for the market to get out of the woods, we must see prices move above 1350 on the S&P 500. That would break the down trend in the weekly timeframe. Then prices must surpass the May highs. That would allow a higher high to be in place and change the trend in the weekly timeframe.
The DJIA and S&P 500 weekly charts are rest on key rising support as the stochastics are in single digits. Additionally, the Aroon up continues to hover above 70 as the Aroon Oscillator has confirmed the move rising above -50 on their weekly charts. If a rally occurs tomorrow or Friday, we should see a huge triple digit gain on the DJIA as short covering occurs.
If you are not long, be patient and watch for a candlestick reversal and confirmation. If you are bottom fishing make sure to keep your position sizes small, then add to them if you are correct. There is nothing wrong with bottom fishing in a downtrend, but you must realize that you are in a down trend and not an uptrend and therefore are at much greater risk. I enjoy buying in the lower boundary of a falling price channel from time to time, but I try and keep the positions to a minium. I have been burned from time to time doing this, because channels do expand. But the rewards are tremendous. Obviously this kind of trading will cause a trader to have a much looser stop, allowing for more flexibility. Bottom fishing should always be approached with a great deal patience and tolerance. Let's see how this stick sandwich pattern plays out."
learning...good luck with the Renko system. Using a little judgement, based on where the days price has closed, relative to the reversal level......along with looking at a trusted friends comments, or a trusted indicator, can help to mitigate the inevitable whipsaws.
Whipsaws are the only thing which keep it from being the grail (almost)...and avoiding, or limiting them helps a lot.
And, patience is needed...if your luck is like mine..when you start following a system, there will be a shakeout. I try to tell myself that only the strong survive, and if I do the best I can, the market will trend once more, and the profits follow. Regards.
Lots of volatility, eh?? I wonder how many people have been stopped out of their positions today, only to see the price reverse again and go higher.
I have learned to set stops that protect against the catastrophe, but give plenty of room for intraday volatility. I am much more interested to see at what price traders are willing to hold positions overnight...that is far more telling that the scalping that goes on during market hours, imo.
learning...I don't think there is an absolute answer. I try to give room for an intraday move against the position. I look at the closing price...say, what I did yesterday. The price was within .50 (as I remember of making another fill on a red box)......I knew there could be intraday moves today which would take that out, temporarily. I set my sell level for MVV at $62.00..being willing at that price to concede that I had been whipsawed, and that the price would likely continue lower.
As a general rule..I use a box size which gives a reversal at about 4% price change. If a closing price is close to, but does not fill that box..after hours I will adjust orders to allow about 1.5% that forces me out of one position and into the inverse.
While the Renko chart system could be used as fully mechanical, ..as you see, I put some amount of judgement into it. I think anyone using it should do what they are comfortable with...regards.
Gleno..thanks for sharing those words of wisdom. Read and heed.
nice post..I see your point of view.
I will respond only to this line "Israel can not afford a long guerrilla war." That seems to be what the Arab states that support Hezbollah and Hamas are counting on. I believe it is a mis-calculation on their part..a very sad mis-calculation because it prolongs the deaths and sufferings of both sides.
Imagine for a moment that you are an Israeli...you live on a small area of land, surrounded by enemies who are sworn to your destruction and being "wiped from the pages of history".
In the face of such enemies what would you do? I expect you would do much as the Israeli's have done. They will not trade land for peace..after all, what sort of "peace" would it really be, given the hatred of their enemies..only a demand for more and more land..of which they have little now. They do as they must..they absorb the endless blows of the suicide bombers, the rockets launched at their civilian populations, even the massacre of Arab workers in Israel running over people and cars with large equipment, and every other imaginable means of terrorizing the Israeli people.
The Israeli's then respond with missles, fences, embargos, and sometimes excesses of their own. The hatred is not just on one side.
Your quote that Israel cannot afford a long guerilla war....what choice do they have but to afford and to endure?? What choice indeed?? The only alternative is to give up their struggle, and be wiped out or flee. Surely you can see that they will not do the latter.......therefore, the only course of action is to fight the guerilla war with the responses that seem appropriate.
The killings on both sides will go on as long as the Arab states believe they will inevitably win a guerilla war. The Israeli's have no real choice.
Fox...yeah, I think I had two semesters of thermodynamics..not my favorite course, but I did retain a bit.
I wish it weren't so, but those laws seem immutable.
I hope there are some deveopments in particle physics that may suggest new crystalline structures to enhance the capabilities of solar power. There is a tremendous amount of energy that falls on earth from the sun..as you know, we can only utilize a small portion of that in the very best solar arrays we now know how to build. I believe the improvements will need to come at the sub-atomic level. Regards.
sorry farooq...I respect you..I respect all Muslims, except those who are bent on the destruction of the West..those who launch suicide attacks on innocent civilians..those who are the ugly face of Islam.
There is no reason, other than to dominate the Middle East, that Iran would want nuclear weapons. For that very reason that they must not be allowed to dominate the Middle East, and therefore, they must be deprived of those weapons.
Pakistan?..they have a mutual nuclear standoff with India. I don't believe they are a present threat outside of their region.
Don't try to make it as the West against Muslim countries. Surely you can see the difference between peaceful Muslim countries, and those who are threatening to their neighbors.
I will not try to respond to all points of your post. Suffice it to say..Israel is an ally of the US. It is unthinkable that we would stand by and see them destroyed, as Iran has threatened. It is just as unthinkable that we will allow Iran to threaten them with nuclear annilalation.
You say there will be no attack on Iran. I say that unless Iran responds openly to international inspection..their nuclear capabilties will be destroyed, just as have the developing capabilities of Iraq and Syria.
be...unless certain concepts of physics laws have changed, it would have to be demonstrated to me that less energy is expended to break the molecular bonds of H2O and produce free electrons capable of driving an electric motor, than the amount of energy required to produce such action. In other words, it is probably a less than zero sum game when all energy is considered.
It is of course, true, that the free electrons could power the car...but, from what source does the energy come to break the bonds to create the free electrons..and how is that energy which does the bond-breaking work, produced?
"Any military action against Iran at this moment would kill the world economy - I know you don't want to hear that but it is true."
smarty..smarty...sorry, but your thinking is so typical of liberals who are short-sighted. I assume you would let Iran develop their nuclear bomb, right? I mean, you would negotiate & negotiate, but in the end..you would not stop them. Gosh, you and Neville (rest his soul) must have had identical thought patterns.
Now, if you can...look ahead 5 years, with a belligerent Iran having the bomb..imposing their will on the whole Middle East, and forcing Israel into more and more concessions..or, Israel not willing to concede launches a nuclear strike at Iran, which is retaliated by a nuclear strike on Israel.
My gosh, man!...you talk of international disruptions if Irans nuclear capabilities were taken out now.....what in the world do you think the disruption would be if there were a huge nuclear cloud hanging over the Middle East, and Russia and the West squaring off with the possibility of trading nuclear blows. Really, I'm astonished.
Repeating..there would be a temporary spike in oil prices for a few months..Iran would not be able to affect in any meaningful way the shipments through the Strait of Hormuz..the Iranian oil would continue to flow eastward toward their sponsor, Russia. The net effect would be the de-fanging of a mortal enemy of Israel and the US..a temporary spike in oil..and a strong message sent to other rogue states that any nuclear development must be done under international control.
Not insane..highly rational. Iran cannot be allowed to possess nuclear weapons..period. If diplomacy cannot effect that end, then military might must.
I think most liberals, such as yourself would welcome $10 gas..that's part of the liberal agenda to force social change, isn't it?
But, why such a jump in oil prices? Do you think the Iranians can shut off shipments of oil through Hormuz? How would they do that? Oil prices would jump for a little while..I'll give you that. But there is no real reason prices should remain higher. There is no need to damage the Iranian oil fields..you will need to explain better your reasoning on $10 gasoline, other than a knee-jerk increase in prices as news of the strikes hits the market.
Foot: re:Iran....they are showing off their missles. OK, if I am planning the strike..this is how it goes.
1. We know their MIG's are old, their pilots poorly trained, and few MIG's able to fly for lack of parts.
2. There are two targets for the first waves of missles from the Navy ships, and the stealth bombers from Diego Garcia..plus the Israeli strikes flying eastward over Iraq.
(A) Take out the missle sites, or damage their capabilities (B) Take out the radar and communication systems. That might take 2 days and nights.
3. Place wave after wave of precision guided bunker buster bombs on target at the Iranian hardended sites. Let each bunker buster use the same penetration coordinates of the previous one, so that a progressively deeper hole is blown into the rock and concrete. This action on the dispersed locations may take up to a week of day and night strikes.
4. Ask them nicely after that is completed, to stop uranium enrichment and allow complete international inspections teams to verify their compliance.
The complete takeout of their nuclear capabilities can be done using conventional weapons..and indeed, it would be a mistake to open the Pandora's Box of nuclear weapons in the Middle East..imo.
Sam, or others. Today we have given back about 2/3 or 68% (a good fib number) of yesterdays gain. That also means that net/net for the two days we are up 1/3 or close to 2%. Today was normal price action. It is not surprising after a long decline that there were some more scared hands who sold into the strength of yesterday and early today.
If the price drops tomorrow to $63.00 or less, a red box will fill. If the day closes with that box filled, it will indicate that a continued downtrend is likely......it would also mean we have probably been whipsawed by a 5+% one-day rally..it happens..but it hasn't happened yet.
The signal is still long as shown by the last box filled, which is white. The price action today is not alarming, but expected..the action over the next days will determine whether a new uptrend is in place, or the price move was merely a blip in a continued downtrend.
Sam..I think you are trying to make this far too hard..think simply. Look at the linked chart. Upper left note the box close label at 66.00. That was the box level that was filled yesterday......anything above that did not show as a filled box.
The box size is 1.5....at 1.50 per box. A reversal takes two boxes, or a total of 3.00 change in price..so the closing price would have to drop to 63.00 in order for it to fill another red box. Look back at previous price and box action.
How else can I explain it.........can anyone else clear up the confusion?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MVV&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p64107152872&a=137225579&listNum=1
Sammy..it will take a two box change down to change to a red box..in other words the 63.00 price level would have to be filled again at the close.
Gleno, if there is something untoward happening with the VIX, I expect it can be tied to global warming, somehow.
If the institutions increased buying, and decreased selling, isn't that a positive sign? I would think any rate of change variance in the amount of distribution could signal more upside. If they are the guys with the hands on the tiller, turning the market is more like a battleship than a clipper.
Sammy..look at my MVV chart. The box size is 1.5. The chart previously gave the bottom of the last red box that was filled as being $63.00 (look at the upper left side of the chart). Add 2 boxes (the retracement of the last red box, plus the filling of one white box) of size 1.50 each....that adds $3.00 to $63.00, and tells you at what price the first white box will be filled. Regards.
Foot..are you going to the beach on the West or East coast? I lived in Indian Harbour Beach..just south of Cocoa Beach for many years, while I was an engineer at the Harris Semiconductor plant in Palm Bay.
Remember to lather good in plenty of sun protection..I lost a technician to brain cancer, who had been a habitual surfer for years.
lol..prudence..I remember when Sat. night live used to parody BushI while he was president having him say in a wimpy way.."that wouldn't be prudent". Ahh, yes, prudence. Of course, the reminder is that the turtle gets nowhere until he sticks his neck out.
I read the huge turn yesterday as a vote that the near-term bottom is at hand. One would expect some filling, up and down for awhile, of course..but I don't know of a better signal than buyers being willing to buy and hold into the close. Only the unfolding price moves will tell if buying that event was imprudent. Regards.
Sam..yes, the close filled the $66.00 box, so my buy order triggered..and a close of MZZ. So I am officially pulling for some upside now. Hopefully we have a nice long uptrend for a month or more.
I think his site is the best on the board..and #2 isn't real close.
Maurice Walker..public charts site: Not a lib or consv bias..but a straight thinker and talker:
"When we handcuff the hands of big oil, by limiting the amount that they can explore, extract and refine, you should expect higher energy prices. I think many of us are ill-informed when it comes to the issue of oil and have mis-placed anger for Exxon. Did you know that Exxon announced recently that it is selling every single one of its gas stations. They are tired of being demonized and the amount that the service stations make its dwarfed by the bad rap that they get to their good name. Remember they only make .08 cents a gallon.
What about a wind fall tax? Congress recently sought to usurp a wind fall profit tax on oil companies, which failed to pass. A wind fall tax won?t produce one barrel of oil, but it will produce less energy than before. This is outright antithesis towards capitalism. Because do you know what the profit margin is in the oil business, its about 8%. But the myth in regards to Exxon is that they make larger profits than anyone else. That couldn?t be further from the truth, the corporation that makes the biggest revenue doesn?t make the biggest profits. I hope your sitting down, because what I'm going to say is going to shock you. Coca-Cola has a higher profit margin than Exxon does. In recent years, Yahoo has had 45 % profit margin, Intel has at 24 % and Apple was 22 %. So as Sargent Friday use to say on Dragnet 'just the facts ma'am.'
You see if you don't have the facts, anybody can be made to believe that they ought to hate oil corporations. When will we learn that corporations don't pay taxes, because they pass them on to the consumer. The last wind fall tax that was imposed was a nightmare, it lowered domestic production, because corporations went elsewhere to get their oil. Thus the revenue projections from the wind fall that government expected to be at $393 billion, only brought $80 billion in extra revenue."
Sammy...you can calculate after the close, what price would create a white or reversal box the next day, and set your GTC buys/sells there. I generally look at the closing price in relation to the price which creates a reversal box...if the price closed just below the price that would fill a reversal box, there may be a warning:
1. There may be a reason it closed just below..like a resistance level.......and the next day the trend will continue downward.
2. Any small rally the next day, much smaller than would show real conviction of a reversal may trigger the GTC buy signal, but then the market continues it's downward path.
If the price closes only slightly below filling a reversal box, I handle it by setting my GTC price at least 1% above the price that would fill the box. There is no absolute answer...it depends on your risk tolerance..but beware of a small move on a new day filling the box, and then a subsequent intraday reversal to follow the primary trend that has been existing.
Hi Sammy..If things work the way they should, as the price is reached during the day, and fills the reversal box..there are GTC orders in place to sell the short issue, and buy the long, at the same time. That way I am always in the trend.
There is a risk of a whipsaw, of course.......but lower risks than some other methods if the box size is appropriate. We have been in a downtrend since early June. There have never been enough buyers at the close of day, to trigger a white box. When that happens it is a significant signal..It means there are enough buyers at that price level willing to hold that position overnight, that there is a high probability of a reversal. Most indicators that are constantly discussed are only followers of price. I don't know of any indicator that is equal in value to price itself. Regards.
OT..in a few weeks fall practice for college football will begin. Any Texas A&M fans here? An exceptionally fine young athlete with a great family has decided to play at Nebraska. He had narrowed the choices to A&M and the Huskers weeks ago. We are excited to be his choice...but I am sure A&M has another fine QB recruit in the wings.
Good luck to all fans favorite teams...well, not so much Colorado (just kidding).
Hi John..yes, I am a subscriber to mvp, and follow it's signal on part of my portfolio. mvp is a great timing service..the best I've seen. I use my own methods on part of my portfolio in order to diversify signals. I only speak of my own signals here. Regards.
Primary trend is still down. MVV added another red box today..and if it closes at or below the present level will indicate that there are not enough buyers yet at this price level to reverse the trend. Just sit back, scratch, and close your eyes for awhile...the price will tell us when things are different.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MVV&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p64107152872&a=137225579&listNum=1
be..what wise advice from decisionpoint. I know people might get antsy..but there is no solid reason that there must be a bottom here. Wait and see..you will lose a bit from an absolutely perfect bottom call..but, frankly, just how many times have you hit the bottom perfectly, and how much money have you lost trying to catch the absolute bottom?
Yeah..it's a good chart. The mid-term chart at the bottom is my favorite. One would have done well recently in following that.
This is a general question for the board...and it may or may not be only me who has trouble making a decision at ma crossovers.
I find when I look at a crossover for a decision, that in real time, it is hard to pull the trigger promptly (promptly, meaning when it should have been pulled as shown by future movement). As it is crossing over, or about to cross over, I find it ambiguous, and question whether the trend the ma is following will continue or be whipsawed. If anyone has comments on that, I would appreciate your thoughts. Regards.
lol...I was referring to myself, of course.. Self-appointed myself as the board idiot. Some of the liberals have thought that for some time, I suppose.
Re: Obama..Gee I would like to think Foot is right. I think it may have a lot to do with where we live. He doesn't have a chance in my state. Mac doesn't have a chance in Oregon. If Florida is truly solid for Mac..that sounds better.
It bothers me that a red state like Montana may be willing to go for a guy as far left as Obama. Heck, 40 years ago a looney liberal of the same stripe (McGovern) didn't even carry his home state of S. Dak. (My memory says that was the case and if it wasn't, he barely did). Now, a state of ranchers, outdoor lovers, gun owners, and freedom-lovers are thinking of voting O??
The liberal media is shoveling it to the voters as fast as they can.......I only hope that somewhere there are some swift boat ads lurking for after the convention that, (1) Inform the American people that a genuine hero is running for President on one side and (2) that a radical liberal, with ties to shady individuals and organizations is running against him.
The green terrorists win a court battle that stops building of a power plant..they are the winners..the losers are the people who could have used the jobs in the construction and operation of the plant..to say nothing of the many more who could have used the power provided.
I suppose the greenies feel good.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,376082,00.html
Well, someone has to be the board idiot..
One could look at myriads of indicators, and past history to determine whether or not a bottom is near, or at hand......or you "could" let the market price tell you that the trend has changed. The counter-argument would be that you would then "give back" part of the gains..assuming you had been following the down trend for the last month and had those profits.
The counter-counter-argument would be that the give back is small compared to the gain, and that trying to guess the bottom against the trend will probably cost more than waiting for a trend reversal to manifest itself. bwdik.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MVV&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p98946700073&a=137225579&listNum=1
Yep..we're breathing too much..cows have too much flatulence..we've cut down one too many trees..it's all a hoot. Wonder how they explain the ice age receding, long ago? Oh yeah..they don't have to explain..they have junk science to rely on.
On Obama..I see the liberal left is mad because he is moving to the political center on some things. They needn't worry..he will revert back to the far left after the election........You learn the words to the Black National Anthem yet? We need to be with the times.
Dan..do you have your new laptop with wireless yet? Take care of that back....I would use every opportunity over the holiday to get others to fetch you a cold drink..piece of pie..etc.
Dang! Now our large-screens are causing global warming.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/03/2293369.htm?section=justin
Thanks Bert. I think much is probably factual..but have to allow for disinformation. You certainly would not want to tip the strike in advance.
I feel blabby today..forgive the reference to the big war..My favorite disinformation story from WWII was an improved bomb sight that came into use by British bombers about 1941..suddenly the bombing was much more accurate than it had been..but they didn't want the Germans to steal the new bombsight.
The British planted stories in their news services about huge fields of carrots being grown in England, and how the bombadiers were eating large servings of carrots, and reported their eyesight had greatly improved.
You can imagine the British mirth as the Germans began to talk in their media of a "carrot gap" for their forces, and hustle to plant fields of carrots.
Fox, I've been to Hong Kong numerous times before they came out from under British protection..I lived in Kuala Lumpur, supervising the engineering work of assembly and electrical testing of integrated circuits for a couple years, twice in my career. We had business contacts in HK and Singapore.
Hong Kong would be a little safer, as far as potential confiscation of your assets if relations with the West went sour......but I was thinking of the opportunities in the mainland.
Heck yeah...there is a rising middle class, and if they like to gamble, they would like the stock market. We could set up an investment office there..sophisticated trading software..dazzle them..take their money (of course make money for them too)........it could be a cool life for a younger man. Mama would have maid service..we could have a cook..no messing with the maids though.
fish..great pic. That is a serious leap. Are Mako steaks any good? I realize you didn't land these so the question is somewhat moot.
You need a heavier rig if you're going to fish those babies.