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Full Moon Market Top: Time for Howlin Wolf
"Goin Down Slow"
Earlier daily target area hit today.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p83460217427&a=269529892&listNum=41
Useful UVVXY SVXY CHART
NOTE SLO STO 39,1 SECTION
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p80871517433&listNum=2&a=270964731
"Stops are in, feelings are out"
Live with Oscar's mantra is good advice.
I also forget that charts don't have feelings or gut feelings but just do what they do. Damned inconsiderate of my feelings or hunches at times. I think before the week is out the VIX will bounce. Use the 60 min I posted for GASX and GASL...works pretty well. GASX (short nat gas) seems to be bottoming, which is a good sign the SPX is topping.
VIX timing indicators for the next few days:
On both 60 min and daily indicate a bias to the upside continuing over the next few days. Light volume and TOM may magnify what “should” be a slight upward drift. Realism from Friday’s data may cause the VIX to rise.
60 min VIX Timing Indicator with UVXY SVXY
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=60&b=5&g=0&id=p70009894131&listNum=2&a=270802188
Daily VIX Timing Indicator with EDC EDV SPX NYADV
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p04666200377&a=270829927&listNum=2
See SVXY chart and
make UVXY from it. Note bottom half of chart...working on system using the indicators. Hope this is helpful. Yes I think this gap will fail ..."gap and crap".
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SVXY&p=60&b=5&g=0&id=p49820723177&listNum=41&a=270623314
My daily count
Not Elliot...just my count
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p69635176313&listNum=41&a=270660788
H&S within H&S. Looking for 1336-44
See bottom half of chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p52807823279&listNum=41&a=270624129
MONGO: Mental Overload Neuroganglia Outsourcing
Wishing everyone well today. Strap yourselves in. It's gonna be a bumpy ride!
Watch RSI 34 on 60 min.
Could bounce ahead of Thursday's decision.
Has major support on daily.
60 min
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p43328904783&listNum=40&a=267579733
4e price target 1375. See chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p83460217427&listNum=41&a=269529892
Revised daily chart at resistance zone
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p29861930736&listNum=41&a=269529892
60 min hitting top BB. Watch for red arrow indicators.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&b=5&g=0&id=p93336306429&listNum=41&a=269867937
Resistance hit on daily. See chart scenarios.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p12949122725&listNum=41&a=269529892
Hitting both horizontal & down FIB fan resistance
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p34346865700&listNum=41&a=269742300
Breaking above= bullish, failing= bearish
Could very well be. Daily SPX stayed within the "Flag" today, bouncing off top line in wild trading. Watching VIX futures for clues overnight.
Thanks. Here's an interesting 10 minute chart for short-term.
I'll spend some time with yours after I make my way out for Denny's pancakes :)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=10&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p82318411463&listNum=41&a=269522946
The futures are up big time Sunday. After Monday's top three formations on the daily are possible:
1. A pullback to the 200 day avg making a cup and handle followed by large rally with up channel now set.
2. A pullback to 1295 making the H&S pattern followed by big rally.
3. A drop below the 200 day and 1295 to the 1240 area to the lower (5) on the chart.
Watch for the top to be made Mon-Tues followed by a pullback to either the 200 day, 1295, or 1240.
chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p14442289166&listNum=40&a=267578486
chart
note MACD 14,50,0. Use any time frame.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA:$VIX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&id=p75228226262&listNum=40&a=269174919
I believe we will see an inverse H&S set up on the daily chart as a signal pattern to launch a wave 5 rally on the weekly chart as shown in the 2 charts below.
daily (sorry, a bit cluttered, but you can get the picture)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=10&id=p85914519118&listNum=40&a=267578486
weekly
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p56655821025&listNum=40&a=267573754
15 minute chart
Note interplay with VIX section
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p90005941845&listNum=41&a=268668438
For Your Eyes Only
The name's Wave...Elliott Wave
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=10&id=p58690542115&listNum=40&a=267578486
Weekly price box projection
I know this conflicts with the daily I posted, but this technique is still a work in progress. I am a bit more comfortable with this weekly chart since it produces a price movement similar to last June: a drop going on now, then a rise into the fall, then the end of the major move up.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
Watch to see if the support line is broken. If so, then a precipitous drop will occur. This chart says it will bounce off the support about 1258, then rise to 1483 before the major drop occurs.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=12&mn=6&dy=0&id=p97305756814&listNum=36&a=263582719
A Supreme Court decision striking down the heart of Obamacare I believe would be a "fundamental" reason for a rally (counter-trend?) to begin. That decision should be somewhere at the end of the month. So I would expect a summer rally of sorts with volatility from that point. It all depends on the kind of new "box end" forming at that point. The way the price box is constructed, it's impossible to manipulate where it ends. The end of the box is determined automatically by the original quadrangle end of the box. If you draw that correctly, it works. If you draw it wrong, it's off. Anyway, I find this whole box thing a fascinating new way to look at market trends. So, my turn date is June 18th. Then a new sideways box end will form over several weeks. How box that end forms and how the market breaks out of the box end will indicate direction. The new sideways box end could just be a pause before the next down wave begins if it breaks down out of the box end.
Daily Chart Price and Time Target 1195-1200
Approx June 18
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p43972900677&listNum=40&a=267572659
BADDA BING BADDA BOOM
Here is the 60 min "price box" chart I posted I think at the end of last week. Note it is meeting both price and time objectives.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p52462037301&a=267579733&listNum=40
FOREXPROS.COM Futures chart
Photo failed to upload. Sorry
Oh, THAT cliff :)
Agreed. Drop to 1300, maybe bounce to 1320
and then down towards 1250. See my last post "experimental chart"
for anticipated direction. End of month factor may affect timing.
Experimental 60 min price box
Note hitting bear flag resistance now. Red Fib Fan added out of curiosity.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p13053161350&listNum=37&a=262746799
U S Dollar Price Box
Using the "price box" theory (insert disclaimer: which I have no idea of whether or why it might work or its accuracy), here's the price box for the US Dollar projecting the target high and when it will be reached. One can draw conclusions about the connection between this price direction and stocks and some commodities. It will be interesting to see if the dollar follows the projected price path through the box.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42210427017&listNum=40&a=268219949