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You make an excellent point about a: possible return of "News blackout"..until the next "Event." Add to that a "sell on the news" possibility and there could be a correction. For the long term investor that would be a gift opportunity to accumulate more. Once .005 is taken out there are only small pockets of resistance until .0125
2 Charts. The past week saw no net price change from .004 despite the wild intra day gyrations. This was a much needed digestion of the recent uptrend. The "outside trading day" on Tuesday suggested a trend reversal. I suggested that could merely be a sideways consolidation, or a severe correction to form a right shoulder of a reverse head and shoulders pattern. An alternative would be a high volume breakout of resistance at .005.
Intra day, all these scenarios began to play out! But despite no net change there is an upward bias. The wedge pattern was broken to the upside as resistance at .005 was surpassed on Friday. The wild Tuesday broke the support line, but on Thursday the line held.
The second chart shows that the lower Bollinger band is turning upward as price keeps smacking resistance of the upper bands. OBV and MACD are rising and the Stochastic has corrected from an overbought area. All this supports the notion of an ongoing uptrend. The pickup in volume on Friday is a good sign, albeit the volume needs to increase much more for a convincing upside breakout.
The caveat is that there could still be a final shakeout that breaks the rising support line on a closing basis. But that would signal an extremely bullish reverse head and shoulders pattern.
So we go up, down or sideways. Then what good is the chart. For someone averaging in, the statistically low risk buy points are drawn. The wedge pattern denotes a dramatic move one way or the other as time reaches the apex of the triangle. MACD, etc indicators suggest that the breakout will be to the upside.
Johnny,
You make good points, better than all of the criticisms I get every time I post a chart. I would add to your observation that accuracy of technical analysis is heightened when there is high volume. And there is practically none here.
Sharing your cynicism, I would not post charts. However, since the KMAG crash the charts have actually worked and had you followed standard buy, sell and avoid signals for the last 3 months, you would be sitting on nearly 200% profits right now.
Following technical analysis, I avoided buying during the decline and started buying in the .002's. I got a trading signal to sell at .005 but chose to ignore it. We'll see.
Chart. An ascending wedge has developed. (blue lines) A close above .005 and a successful retest would mark an end of the resistance established in October. The next significant resistance would be at the red line at .0123!
If the price closes below the wedge at .003 then an expectation would be for the formation of a reverse head and shoulders pattern with the left shoulder at the October 16 area, the head at the mid November lows and the right shoulder to form near .003.
The worst case bearish scenario is for a double bottom to form near November lows.
The best case scenario is that a cup and handle formation is in the works and a confirmed breakout above .005 would signal a new bull phase.
Thanks Big Wheel. From near .0015 to nearly .004 we have been undeniably going up. Will the trend continue? No one knows, but there was an obvious buy signal and I bought. Today I am glad I did.
Chart. This is an update of a previous chart delineating the 3 month "grey" period of KMAG history. The purple diagonal line on the left is descending resistance, a signal to avoid buying. The two wedge patterns in purple on the left warned of continued decline. Anyone adhering to technical analysis was not buying during this time.
When that declining line was broken to the upside on a closing price basis and then descended to test it, a buy signal was rendered. Those who followed these technical analysis indicators have more than doubled their money in 3 months!
On the right of the chart the blue uptrend line begins where the purple downtrend was successfully tested. Resistance at .0018, the red line, created by the former wedge consolidation was broken giving a second buy signal. Those who bought there are up just under 100% at today's close.
The dark blue lines delineate a projected upward trend channel that was adhered to until today when it was broken to the upside. Note that the light blue secondary top line of the trend channel turned the price back. I drew these lines over a week ago and they played out accurately. Any trader who followed the classical charting precepts layed out by Granville, Zweig and others are sitting on 100% profits tonight if they had used technical analysis during KMAG's time in the grey market.
A sound tactic. I am with you.
I am so pleased to be in FRZT. I haven't checked the OS/AS history for dilution, but technically we are on our way to old all time highs.
Charts:
The resistance line suggested by FrankF did indeed turn the price back toward the breakout point at around .025. That "snapback to support" was to be expected and welcomed in Technical analysis.
Should we break above the .031-.034 area we are out of this "flag" consolodation and on our way to making another flagstaff.
Furthermore, the next price rise would conclude the handle to a cup and handle formation on the long term rendering a long term buy signal with objectives including old highs.
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zozo may be referring to a potential cup and handle formation, a pattern suggesting a statistically high probability of an impending uptrend.
A bowl shape could be a potential precursor to the cup and handle pattern. Not an indicator unto itself but a flag that deserves attention.
Technical analysis has performed well for me in the last 3 months with KMAG giving several key signals that kept me from buying. Lately, the sell signal has been terminated by a break out of the down trend channel. Now a basing process is in place. As long as there is volume and price change, technical analysis can be a valid tool in any market place.
The peaks you referenced are intra day highs not the closing prices which were much lower, so bar chart or candlestick charts aren't precisely clear on if .031 is significant resistance.
On the chart below see that the red line in the .025 area has significant resistance that has been overcome. It would be an interesting coincidence or design if the resistance you propose could be a turning point for the price to snap back to test the breakout at .025.
Those 300,000 3's this afternoon was me buying.
I'm buying what they're selling.
On my buy order I got a partial fill of some of those .019's while my bid was .0239
That price bump just now was my little buy on the ask, averaging bit by bit to my position.
Good call lucas! FRZT is a no brainer. Just put your finger on the "buy now" button. The fundamentals are aligned with the technical.
Thanks for that information. Above those two intra-day spikes to .035 there will be no resistance at all. The only influencing factors for FRZT price will be profit takers, news, OS and volume. It is great to be in a growth stock in a growth industry.
Break above that resistance at around .025-.028 and we are likely to form a new flagstaff. If we oscillate within the "flag" it makes a great opportunity for accumulating. Caveat: A close below the flag would make around .01 the support level.
The "bull flag" suggests a statistically significant likelihood of a break out to the upside. Whatever scenario transpires, I am accumulating. The news, industry sector, and the company profile make FRZT a compelling opportunity for me. Plus the "family friendly" element is something I feel good about being involved with.
I notice that FRZT is based in Tustin CA. I teach music there. I am going to find time to pay them a visit. Maybe I even teach their kids. I am so old, maybe I was even their teacher!
A picture of my interpretation of duelittle's launch pad and possible trajectory. Should the red resistance line at .005 be broken it could be a straight shot to pre crash levels.
Today we closed on the first resistance level. Break above it and we look at the next resistance(.004) and a wider up trend channel with the light blue upper line. Close lower and we could correct to what, hopefully, is our new up trend support line, the thick blue line. With good news and high volume the trend channel could be blown away as duelittles' Rocket ignores resistance and trends.
Duelittle, I am inclined to agree. Here is my chart showing a one month basing pattern. The blue line once delineated support and a bearish wedge. It was broken projecting more downside. A bottom was found and tested, the down trend line overcome and tested, then the blue line became resistance which was quickly overcome. That resistance is now support. Your launch pad.
Due, I am aware that you know all this. Forgive my blabbering, but friends have asked me to explain my squiggles.
The caveat is that this all falls apart and the downtrend is tested again at much lower levels. I am betting otherwise with my buy orders.
Hi BBalls. I don't know about a bid-ask structure in the Greys, as I have never traded in the Greys. I'm still holding my original position. I was presumtious in stating that someone may be buying on the bid, but normally that is what causes price increase.. Nonetheless, whatever forces of price fluctuation functioning here has caused above average intraday highs during the high volume days.
As you see by the recent charts we are in a price area where probability suggests a "low risk" entry zone is in the works. The caveat is that KMAG is still a high risk entity until hard data becomes public.
Despite statements that charts mean nothing on the Grey market, I have been getting better chart accuracy than ever in the last three months. I repeat: technical analysis measures price relative to volume, irrespective of the market place being examined.
The collection of charts below chronicle support and resistance levels of the last several months.
The key is volume and today's volume should be heeded. Joe Granville, the guru of technical analysis said "Volume precedes price." Granted, today's volume and the recent volume spikes don't add up to much in dollar terms. Nor is the volume near the levels of active days of the Pink Sheet days. But it is still a flag indicating someone is interested in buying despite KMAG being a Grey Sheet stock.
Any claims as to why, who or what for, is conjecture, propaganda, hyperbole or pseudo science. The fact is that in the last two months the majority of higher than normal volume days also had large intra day price swings to the upside.
I could guess that on these days someone was buying relatively large amounts on the ask. Any other explanations are guesses too.
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Well done sid.
With so much speculation being hurled about, it is refreshing to see some real research.
Charts measure price action relative to volume.. not market places. Look at the chart I posted, if you understand charts you will see valid patterns. Seriously. That said, charts and fundamental analysis have failed pitifully at prognosticating KMAG's price performance even while in the pinks.
This chart was posted for friends I have here who asked me to share this perspective.
Chart:
The long term rising trend line has been broken (red line), and after a week of consolidation, the price made another lunge toward the crash low at .0021 only to be turned back up by long term support at .003 (blue line).
Now we have resistance at just above .005 at the red line, and support at .003 at the blue line. If we break above resistance (red) we are good for a run toward the descending line of the triangle formation (black line) at near .015... that is after some consolidation at the breakout point along the red line.
But, conversely, today's low volume move could be a simple bounce from the blue support line, and more downside action could bring the price back to test .003 (blue) or beyond to the crash low of .0021 at the green line.
So what? Conservative buy points are at a retest of .003 (blue), and during consolidation after an upside breakout above .0052 (red), or at a test of the crash low at .0021 (green). My strategy is to hoard cash to buy at any and all of these points.
Here are a couple of charts I was studying before the suspension. The double top formation on the first chart was warning of a statistically high possibility of a drop. The lower support line suggested a worse case scenario. This happened, and on a closing basis the support held.
The second chart indicated a long term symmetrical triangle indecision pattern suggesting that the price would oscillate between the resistance and support lines until one or the other is broken indicating the trend direction. Support was broken today but the price closed within the triangle pattern. So the pattern is still valid until support is broken and closed below..
All this indicates that we have a better buying opportunity now than when the double top was pressuring downward price direction and the price was near the top of the triangle formation.
That said, a double bottom near today's lows is not out of the question. The caveat is that technical analysis and fundamental analysis have both failed miserably to project accurate possibilities for KMAG.
In response to the PMs I get stating that charts only picture the past, I'll let Joseph Granville's thinking reply: Technical analysis is simply graphs of mass psychology behavior in the past. But the masses behave in predictable patterns that can be measured and extrapolated from.
Right on chambers. And let me do what I want with the seeds that I buy. Put RFID tags on government agents and see where they spend their time.
I am on my droid and can't send you the link to my calculations at this time. But when the price was 1.35 the OS was 1 third of what it is today. So the old high of 1.35 is approximately .45 in todays terms. It is not unreasonable to hope for the old highs to return due to hype or news. Therefore I am examining the price range between here and .45.
Long term chart shows gaps to be filled.
Today's oscillation is nothing compared to what is to come, based on price history and if all the fundamentals fall into place. The red lines denote where we can expect resistance. Gaps are filled nearly 100% of the time they say. Look at where the historic gaps are, yes 23 cents and 30 cents, and expect them to be filled eventually. A formitable resistance is at near .45, then again at $1.35 in the very long term.
Thanks Masterlu. Here is a repeat of my reasoning for these projections:
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Chart. On this chart the cup and handle long base has has been confirmed by today's breakaway gap. Resistance at .015 dating back to April offered no resistance today. The flag staff and flag formation started on Aug 12 has resolved to the upside. We are now set up to challenge the resistance congestion near the double tops at the .018-.024 area. We might expect another flag formation in that area, but only the nimble might profit from trading that possible channel.
Beyond .024 there is little overhang until near .034. Then it is rarefied air on to .05. If KMAGamania develops, .48 is not unforeseeable as it equates to the pre split all time high.
Right on. Traders will play the channels. As more long investors hold, new steeper channels form due to the shrinking float. There are trading programs that make the self fulfilling prophecy automated. Volume is a key indicator and we now have the volume for trader's screens to be lighting up.
It may just be that the Darth seller has become the Jedi accumulator.
Any theories jdk?
No offence to bytor and you jaime. My ramblings were triggered without any affront being taken from either of you. Sometimes the most unrelated things tickle the funny bone.
A frog in a sauce pan, ceeker. Too stupid to notice the water is getting hotter. I just keep putting my allowance and sofa change into this thing. I am betting that to my good fortune, I will also be too stupid to get out at .10 while we are on our way to .45.