have seen- i lost your #. can you pls email it to me at docbanker@yahoo.com

OT Nerf- got your call from about 2 wks ago- tried you back. try my cell tomorrow.

Can't get splattered?
You also cite I have no skin in the game or my call was somehow retrospective in nature?

Trust me- I had huge skin in the game. Why would I pay thousands of dollars to travel to ICAD. I posted a warning here to people 2 weeks ago and said the data was shaky after someone posted an OT post on ELN.

This ELN Management is the gift that keeps on giving.

LOL. We found cases of PML in the database and company denies it and then denies it on conference call. Someone in the EU must have forced their hand.

ELN just made my year.

hi- i am open to insight. private msg me your # and we can discuss MNTA. Some of the work i have done has been validated by some large funds. I want to see the light. i'll call you.
thanks

easy, it was a rhetorical question.

The ELN data raised a lot more questions than it answered. Surprisingly, none of the investors that I know did any stats work or they would have realized what the likely ADAS score was for non-carriers- definitely not disease modifying and high stand dev. 10% chance of success imo- while they are going to spend 300 MM on a manu facility. EDT will get $800 MM if its even sold- worse inflow to company if its just spun. Do I hear massive financing coming?

This is another huge blow to WYE/ELN.
I was at a Gerson event Tuesday night and got a trial doctor to admit there was only a 10% chance of commercialization.

This leaves another gaping hole in large pharma pipeline.
Tens, if not hundreds of billions of sales, to be compensated for.

Given the strength of the RPRX data and the size of the unmet market, I love the prospects here. What else are you/pharma going to buy? Many companies in Phase 3 with 200 MM indications are trading at billion + market caps. Where should a company with a billion market potential trade.

I know, I know, many are waiting for the supposed financing which may or may not affect the price. Look at the bulkiness of the holders- do you think this is going to be a tough deal to do and at a discount?

Follow-up on ELN- as previously stated, there were too many questions on the data. I was at ICAD and trust me, the data was garbage. They had bar graphs and we were all laughing saying where are the curves?
In a non-carrier subgroup completers analysis, there was no curve separation until 40 wks where there was likely a Placebo problem (dropoff).
Chaching.

If this was fully funded for another year and had a MC of $600-800 MM, I would be echoing Clark's generalized sentiment that all BTK have risks and that there is somewhat fuller valuation and there should be concern. At $100 MM MC, the risk/reward is phenomenal.

I would agree with Clark's concern 3 or more months back. With the QT study (pilot), biopsies, carc studies, Mutter comments- this is much less risky now. I think we are approaching risk territory commensurate with other phase 3 compounds with huge market potentials- those type companies are trading at $600 MM to 1.5 B. We are at $100 MM. I like the risk/reward.

Thanks.
That reply should put to bed any fears that your first post may have created.

Clark,
Can you elaborate on that 50/50 bet proposition? What will a theoretical additional trial lasting at least 1 year consist of? We already have 2 pivotal efficacy trials for both fibroids indications and 2 safety trials enrolling per discussions with FDA. Can you provide more details?

Hi haveseen,
Yes people follow it. If you do the stats on the ELN drug it looks like a change in ADAS cog score of about 4 assuming a lower range of standard dev. The potential problems with it include imbalances, dropout rate and last observation carryforward (dropouts are measured at time of dropout and this is counted as 18 month score). As a result, it is quite possible the delta of 4 is due to some of these factors. The vaccine data is less than helpful to the hypothesis. As a reference point, Aricept had a delta of 3 and MDVN (there is a lot of controversy how quality the trial was) had a delta of 6 or 7. MDVN is a binomial outcome based on whether you believe the quality of the data. Even if the delta of 4 for ELN is not due to some of the confounding factors above, it is not that much or any improvement over Aricept so I would say if they can successfully complete a P3 with stat sig results that equate to delta of 4, this drug is more of a 1-2 B drug versus the $15 B that the bulls are projecting. INterestingly an analyst said at $6 B drug at 12% discount rate which is low for the group, the Alz drug adds $12 of value to ELN which puts the overall value in the 20s, given the other base business being worth mid teens. Not sure how you can justify this valuation for ELN. However, many of these names ceased trading on fundamentals long ago.

Good luck.

congrats to Dew. Not sure why MNTA is moving up but it is.

Trouble with paramount-based board?

You mean Lindsey Rosenwald is not liked by everyone?

LOL

I've discussed the name with people from 2-3 of the largest HC funds out there- not sure any of us still sees much.

When will enox get through? When will they hear from FDA?
If anyone is approved will it be just them or all? How will they make any money given the crappy terms with Sandoz?

Whats up with this Copaxone PR? I'll see you in 2014 with every other tom, dick and harry.

Pls post any thoughts.

By the way, let me guess, you think bapinuzemab works i bet. I'll buy "what is a high drop out rate in tx group and last observation carryforward causing results" for a $500, Alex.

The "capped stock price" as you call it is one large holder is now out. It was his shares. He refused to sell through brokers who indicated interest, he just kept selling little by little every day. I believe he is done. Hence the volume overcame the supply and we started up yesterday.

oh my Lord 35 cents.

Seemed like increased legit trading today. someone bought shares someone else wanted out of. perhaps seller since 10s is getting close to done.

nice news today. looking for more good news prior to Analyst Day. Looking forward to carc study and more biopsies data.

Well Joe,
Say hello to no broker sponsorship.

When we get a larger broker with wider breadth of distribution, we will get noticed. Until then, we get 30 cent moves on successful study results.

LOL the short interest went down 300k.

A total of 500k shares traded in that 2 week period.

Looks like someone else got out. On a positive note, fewer people see reason to be short as the story continues to be derisked.

Two observations:
i) the 4 brokers that cover this stock couldnt sell water in the desert
ii) we need endo data. data lock was july 5. perhaps some of us need to fly down to Houston to help Andre move more quickly.

Take your meds, ymaxx.

Why dont you wait until July 24 for a corporate update.

Not sure why Ymaxx is fixated on the Efficacy sale- its clear FIDO played bait and switch with margin requirements and they got sold out- why would anyone sell shares they just bought and have to owe the company any short-swing profits?

What i find more interesting is PACGROW, OPCO, etc. show indidcation of interest to buy stock every day but someone leaks out shares (More like dumps shares) at the bid using other brokers or electronic trading. If there are legit shares to sell and you are an institution, contact those firms and cross shares like every other professional does.

I think fertility is the endpoint (i.e. sperm count or whatever) as FDA said at last Androxal meeting that there can be no QOL endpoints.

Options activity recently for July 10Cs

on 6/24 someone sold almost 900 contracts at bid and stock came in given counterparty probably had to sell 90,000 shares or close to that given delta.
yesterday someone bought 1000 contracts at offer but there was no concurrent buying of stock. either someone is looking to buy now or we have someone now short 100000 more shares above 10.

Wow short interest down 200k.

Shorts slipping away- thanks again to dr van as and his prolonged timelines.

Guess more and more people are starting to believe in the story. If/when we get a decent broker with distribution capabilities on the name, we might move up.

its the 5th amendment to NIH licensing of Proellex.

down we go on no volume. hopefully endo results out soon. better be or andre should be shitcanned. hurry up andre we are not in france working 20 hrs per week.

I agree with you- if the efficacy and safety data keeps coming in as strong as it has and if timelines do not continuously slip (seems like things got done a lot faster when it was just Joe)- value should be in the $1-2 B range. No reason why not. We arent getting there doing status quo. We need more new investors. Punk Ziegel pooped out long ago. People warned that Opco would be worthless. Something new has to occur to get more people in- scientific papers, new broker coverage, something.

Another problem with not making friends at brokerages is the liquidity issue.
23,000 shares traded today. who knows when something will be done on the liquidity front.

I have little doubt that if we had coverage with Lehman or JPM or someone like that, given the chunky large holders we have, we would be trading around $30.

Its a two sided sword- the refusal to schmooze/pay those guys had led to less dilution for shareholders (i'm sure they would have wanted the last deal last yr to be double in size) but it would lead to a higher stock price given sponsorship.

At this point if JP continues to execute as he has done very well, who knows when the price will go up.

You need to focus a bit more on why SVNT is trading at $1.4 B. IT is currently Lazard's baby- every chance they get, they talk it up and try to get investors involved.

RPRX on the other hand is like the red-headed step child when it comes to brokerage sponsorship. One critical mistake made a year ago was choosing Opco to lead the follow-on. Everyone except JP knew at the time it was a mistake. Opco has basically abandoned the story since then. I think the science and drug is solid here- JP needs to do a better job of finding sponsors.

One one hand you have the solidly sponsored companies: SVNT, SQNM (this followon was as predictable as they come), ELN, ACOR, i would even put ALKS in this bucket- company id falling apart and analysts are maintaining buys, etc.
On the other hand are the RPRX of the world.

Imagine a scenario where the PIIb endo results coming out were not stat sig in all groups but were in women with large breasts (which may or may not be driven by hormonal induction with estrogen and or progesterone- large breasts can be due to genetics, fatness, hormone induction whatever) showed a stat sig result. The stock would get clobbered. Now think about the ELN results and the reaction of the stock again.

Its all about quants and joe sixpack trading this now.

I would say congrats on the move. Its the tale of two worlds:
i) HC funds that I talk to are very dubious the data and valuation.
ii) quants are getting involved in the name due to the chart and b/c headlines read 'they just cured Alz" not the trial failed.

I think it could go anywhere in the short term. by fall we should see twenties if not teens.

It wasnt prospective for one. secondly, why wasnt the whole group stat sig if apo e neg was so good and 50%+ of pts are apo e neg.

Take a look at valuation here and this points to cultishness. This has same enterprise value as BIIB- look at BIIBs financial flexibility, more drugs, 4x sales, etc.

I think Clark called RPRX a cult stock or akin to it which. I would encourage him to take a look at ELN. This is the first time in a long time I have seen data mining presented in a positive light and the stock traded up.

i dont know what you mean by non-cc info. people called the company and the company clarified that the number was 6. i dont think anyone is sure when the rest of the women's biopsies will be complete.

OT: Clark

I, for one, would like to hear what Clark owns and feels is a compelling risk/rewad at this price today (and why). Thanks in advance.

I dont claim to understand your trading success- i just said to own this higher last year prior to derisking and not own it now is a poor understanding of risk/reward.

MNTA- i added to the position after the bulge brackets including morgan stanley pumped it in the 14-15+ level.
We will see how that turns out. Stay tuned.

I dont claim to have inside connections to management- when there is a question i simply ask and it is answered- much unlike the speculators here who pontificate without regards to facts basing their opinions.

Two things:
Someone posed the question what important events are coming soo-
Granted endo interim efficacy is coming- thats important.
On the safety side (most people here question safety), three items:
i) biopsy 3 cycle women
ii) formal QT study
iii) carc studies
we have seen partial results from all 3 (pilot QT vs formal) and all were clean so far.


To the person who said he/she used to own it last year but is waiting now- I dont understand that person at all.

We are sitting (and were as low as 8s recently) at stock prices as low or lower than a year ago, yet many more derisking boxes have been checked off. Either you are right now or you were wrong then to own it. Serious lack of consistency.
Does this person work for Great Point and he got redeemed to death due to poor performance?

Clark
Your lifstyle comments smells a lot like a PhD and not the comments of an M.D.