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S&P increases TP to $23, from $18. Moorman increased 2011 earnings per
share estimate by $0.19 to $1.21 and 2012's by $0.30 to $1.57. "We are raising our
12-month target price by $5 to $23, based on revised enterprise value/EBITDA
peer analysis." By Moorman, from S&P PCS Stock Report, May 4, 2011.
Q1-2011 Results: $0.15 EPS; net adds 725K. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/MetroPCS-Reports-First-bw-3882348074.html?x=0&.v=1
ATT buys T-Mobile & PCS comments: http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?id=566647&ven=yahoo
S&P 2011 EPS $1.02E and '12's $1.27E. We are cutting our 12-month target price by $1 to $18, based on enterprise value-to-EBITDA peer analysis. /J.Moorman, CFA
Q4-2010: EPS $0.04 on one time charges; w/o it would have been $0.20. Revenue was +15% to $1.07B.
For the full year 2010 EPS were $0.54. Revenue climbed to $4.04B. Churn in Q4 was 3.5%.
Moorman at S&P has 2011 EPS of $1.24E as of this date, for an over 100% projected EPS increase and for 2012 EPS $1.40E.
Q4-2010 Institutional holders: http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings.asp?symbol=PCS&selected=PCS&FormType=Institutional
T.A. Associates continues to sell (as an insider), IMO "the market" will dance with PCS around $13 until T.A. shows that it is slowing down it's selling and/or PCS releases strong numbers for Q4-10 on February 24, 2011.
Linquist still holds over 6 million shares of PCS, but he is selling 20K to 10K blocks over the past months. I am watching his selling on NASDAQ.com Insider Form 4. As long as he is eating his own cooking I am not worried about T.A. selling.
S&P raises PCS 12 mo. target to $19 from $16. PCS' churn was under 4% in 2010.
from the S&P PCS Stock Report dated 1/6/11:
"We believe the transition to smartphones, coupled with PCS's LTE network and what we see as attractive pricing plans bode well for its future. We increase our 2010 EPS estimate by
$0.03 to $0.74, 2011's by $0.05 to $1.24 and initiate our 2012 estimate of $1.40. We raise our
12-month target price by $3 to $19, based on enterprise value/EBITDA peer analysis. /
J.Moorman, CFA"
Q4-2010 PCS added 297,726 subscribers, totaling 8.15 million subs at the end of Q4-2010, adding 1.5 million net subscribers additions in 2010, from the 6.63 million subs at the end of 2009.
Q4-2010 churn was 3.5%, down from 5.3% in Q4-2009.
"We are pleased with our fourth quarter net subscriber additions and churn results, particularly in light of the severe weather occurring during our peak selling season in late December," said Roger D. Linquist, President and CEO of MetroPCS."
About $13.50 keeps the upward trend intact. $12.87 support level, then $12.18.
G4 LTE in New York, Boston and Sacramento: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/MetroPCS-Launches-4G-LTE-prnews-2293672115.html?x=0&.v=1
"With today's launch in the Boston, New York City and Sacramento metropolitan areas, MetroPCS' 4G LTE services are available in nine metropolitan areas, including Dallas-Fort Worth, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Philadelphia and San Francisco. MetroPCS has plans to expand its 4G services into more metropolitan areas later this year and into early 2011, including Atlanta, Jacksonville, Miami, Orlando and Tampa."
Here is the PCS LTE Andriod phone, out in mid Q1-2011: http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2373930,00.asp
PCS to launch Android phone Q1-11; PCS months/years ahead of Verizon's deployment of LTE-G4 and VOLTE. http://www.fool.com/investing/fiercemarkets/2010/12/06/metropcs-will-launch-android-lte-phone-in-q1.aspx
S&P raises TP to $16 from $15 and Moorman reiterates "Strong Buy" on 11/4/10.
2010 earnings estimate lowed to $0.71 (from $0.79);
2011 earnings estimate raised to $1.19 (from $1.05).
"We have launched 4G LTE service in five metropolitan area so far this year, with more to be launch through the end of the year into next year. These were the first commercial launches of 4G LTE service in the United States. In addition, we were the first in the world to offer a dual mode, 4G CDMA LTE handset. We received this technological transformation as a game changer. We have previously mentioned that we decided to bypass 3G EVDO in favor of 4G LTE because LTE is far more efficient, both in terms of data rate and cost. We started working on the 4G LTE strategy three years ago, with an eye towards being one of the first carriers in the United States to launch for 4G LTE service with an LTE handset. We did this to provide leadership and drive the development of the ecosystem to address our unique business requirements with our 4G LTE launches we continue to innovate and evolve. As we introduce our markets with 4G LTE service, we are planning for the future and making way for migrating voice to VOLTE. While the ecosystem will evolve over time, once we move towards VOLTE, we expect important spectral efficiencies and cost savings will be achieved. With our adoption of 4G LTE and the movement to VOLTE, for the first time, we will be able to realize the benefits of a worldwide standard, which will include scale that comes from worldwide production being on a global standard. The GSM operators have enjoyed this advantage historically. So with LTE, MetroPCS will also benefit from a global standard.
"Further with combined voice and data, we'll have the ability to build capacity without regard to whether it will be used for voice or data. This was one of the key attributes of 1xRTT CDMA and this will once again be the case with the 4G LTE. In the first half of 2011, we intend to trial VOLTE and we look forward to transitioning our smartphone customers to LTE on voice and data. This holds the promise for significant leverage of both CapEx and OpEx cost savings. While still early, we expect 4G LTE to be the transformative technology to usher in a sea change in overall network efficiency to support the ever-increasing demand for data.
"Additionally, as handset ecosystems develop with an increasing emphasis on smartphones and QWERTY handsets, subscribers will have additional choices in finding the best wireless broadband device that meets their needs. Our focus has been and continues to be meeting customer needs as they relate to the small screen, smartphone or QWERTY handsets. We believe the small screen is where we have the greatest wireless broadband opportunity, and we are pursuing this opportunity aggressively. We are also committed to bringing smartphones to our subscribers that operate on the Android operating system. We have traditionally focused on voice, text and web service. However, with the development and inherent advantages of 4G LTE, we see an opportunity to transform our business. Increasingly, streaming video and audio are becoming a large and more important part of the wireless experience. We believe demands for video will grown significantly over the next few years. Our belief is that we are entering an environment in which subscribers will be viewing increasing amounts of video for purposes of news and entertainment. Our MetroSTUDIO service was deployed with entertainment in mind. With our MetroSTUDIO service, we believe our smartphones and services can become a true entertainment device, which allows subscribers to view and enjoy entertainment while on the go. Wireless broadband experience comes down to coverage and costs. We believe we are well positioned with our current service offerings, our 4G LTE network roadmap, as well as our future handset lineup to continue driving subscriber growth.
"As the cost leader in the wireless industry with a state-of-the-art 4G broadband network and a strong network of exclusive distributors, we are in an excellent position to continue our leadership in the no-contract segment. We continue to scale the business and we intend to deliver accelerated free cash flow in the future. The efficiencies and economies to be gained through moving now to a 4G LTE network enable for the first time EBITDA and cash flow to move in the same direction. This change has the potential to enhance profitability throughout the industry and from our current view, enhance profitability conservatives and [ph] important to drive future wireless valuations."
a portion of Linquist's comments on 11/4/10 CC, from Seeking Alpha.
Q3-2010 metrics: PCS added 223,000 subscribers, for a total 7.8 million subs. At the end of Q3 PCS had a market penetration of 8.1% based upon 97 million covered POPs.
Average revenue per user was $39.69, down from $41.08 at the end of the Q3 of 2009.
Cost per user increased to $18.47, up 7 percent over the same quarter in 2009. PCS said the increase was due to an increase in handset subsidies.
Churn was 3.8%, down from 5.8% at the end of Q3 2009.
Q3-2010: $0.22 a share earnings. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/metropcs-3rd-quarter-net-up-41-revenue-up-14-2010-11-04?siteid=yhoof2
PCS buys Pocket NE, LTE deployment: http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/metropcs-buys-pocket-ne-plans-lte-deployment/2010-10-22
10/14/10 S&P MAINTAINS STRONG BUY ON PCS (10.73): We believe the new loyalty
program enacted by Sprint's Boost Mobile brand will have little impact
on demand for PCS' service plans. While it could prove mildly disruptive in the
near-term, we believe it is more a defensive play by Boost Mobile and that PCS
continues to take share in the prepaid market.We believe PCS will continue to
differentiate itself from other prepaid providers as it continues to rollout 4G
service and offers a wider variety of smartphones and 4G handsets.We maintain
our $15 target price, based on peer enterprise value/EBITDA analysis.
J.Moorman-CFA, from S&P's PCS Stock Report.
@ $10.93. Technically PCS needs to "breath" a little bit, MACD just starting to roll-over but still very positive and RSI very near over-bought at 70.
PCS @ $10.93 has a trailing P/E of 18.5 and per S&P 2010 earnings estimates of $0.79, a 13.8 F-P/E. To my mind, an 18 P/E is fully valued for the time in being, yet F-P/E still has some room to the upside.
S&P P/E on Oper. EPS 2011E is $1.05, $0.26 over 2010E EPS, or about 33%. PCS at $11, x33% is about $14.50. Moorman at S&P has a $15 12-month TP for PCS.
Charting: PCS has a gap to fill to $12.18. The going will be tougher over the $12.18, as resistance points start to emerge.
PCS has about 7.4 million subs; VZ (with 94M subs), or T, if PCS can scrap 5% of subs from each within the next year, PCS doubles it's subs. Wishful thinking perhaps.
$10.46 Q3-2010 close.
4G service plans: $55 and $60 w/voice, data and texting, w/taxes and fees.
September 21, 2010 S&P MAINTAINS STRONG BUY OPINION ON SHARES OF
METROPCS COMMUNICATIONS (PCS 9.84): PCS announced this morning
the launch of LTE or 4G service in Las Vegas, Nevada, its first 4G market. PCS will
offer two 4G service plans for $55 and $60 that include voice, data and texting,
inclusive of taxes and fees. PCS also introduced the first LTE handset, the
Samsung Craft, which will be available for $299 after rebates.We continue to
believe PCS's rapid move to LTE will help differentiate it from the competition and
should make it an attractive acquisition candidate.We maintain our 12-month
target price of $15, based on enterprise value/EBITDA peer analysis. /J.Moorman, CFA
"Light Squared" wholesale LTE network: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SKM-to-Enter-LightSquared-zacks-2196215251.html?x=0&.v=1
LTE launch in L.V.; network wide by 1/11. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/MetroPCS-fires-up-cuttingedge-apf-1117272005.html?x=0&.v=8
@$9.77. S: $9.50; R: $10.14. >$10 is crucial psychological level.
Here's Moffett's take at Bernstein. PCS at about $9. Could it be a smoke screen on his huge TP cut in Leap? A "market perform" is as joke, it is just saying that in his opinion PCS will perform with other stocks in the same "market."
Only a S&P Stock Report, signed and dated by the analyst with a firm TP and rationale is worth anything. JMHO
MetroPCS shares slide after downgrade
The Associated Press
Posted: 08/09/2010 11:21:31 AM PDT
Updated: 08/09/2010 11:21:31 AM PDT
NEW YORK—Shares of MetroPCS Communications Inc. slipped Monday after Bernstein Research analyst Craig Moffett downgraded the pre-paid wireless service provider.
THE SPARK: Moffett said MetroPCS has done very well recently, with its shares performing better than its rivals' thanks to the solid execution of its strategy of providing low-cost services, and to overall strength in the pre-paid market. But, he said "the going gets harder from here," as Metro's stock price is high and Wall Street's expectations are substantial.
The analyst downgraded MetroPCS to "Market-perform" from "Outperform." Separately, he also cut the target price for rival Leap Wireless International Inc. to $15 from $23.
THE BIG PICTURE: Pre-paid wireless service providers have enjoyed a subscriber growth, taking advantage of cost-conscious cell phone owners looking to lower their monthly bills. But Moffett notes that, recently, pre-paid growth has "abruptly fallen off the table."
THE ANALYSIS: "While PCS is inarguably the better operator for now, Leap appears to us to be the more attractive stock," Moffett said. "Expectations are suitably low, and their new pricing plans are likely to bolster near-term results."
SHARE ACTION: MetroPCS shares fell 22 cents, or 2.4 percent, to $8.89 in midday trading. Even so, the stock is up about 16.4 percent year-to-date.
Shares of Leap were unchanged at $10.20.
PCS TP raised to $15 and S&P REITERATES
STRONG BUY OPINION ON SHARES OF
METROPCS (PCS 9.44): PCS reports Q2
earnings per share, before one-time items, of
$0.23 vs. $0.10, $0.08 better than our estimate.
PCS beat due to service revenue that was 3.3%
better than our estimate, and EBITDA that was
16% better than expected on low churn of 3.3%.
We view these results as extremely strong considering
weakness seen at other prepaid carriers.
We are increasing our 2010 earnings per
share estimate by $0.29 to $0.79 and 2011's by
$0.26 to $1.05.We are increasing our 12-month
target price by $2 to $15 based on enterprise
value/EBITDA peer analysis. /J.Moorman, CFA
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- PCS: $0.22 earnings per share in Q2-2010. PCS said that its second-quarter net income climbed to $79.9 million, or 22 cents a share, from $26.2 million, or 7 cents a share, in the year-ago period.
Analysts had been expecting earnings of 13 cents a share. Sales at the wireless communications firm rose to $1.0 billion, from $859.6 million last year. Average revenue per user of $39.84 for the second quarter fell 68 cents on the same period in 2009 but rose by 1 cent sequentially.
Churn decreased 250 basis points from 5.8% to 3.3%. "Results for the second quarter were primarily a result of strong net subscriber additions and lower churn," said CEO Roger Linquist.
Over 300,000 new additions in Q2-2010, bringing PCS' sub total to about 7.6 million.
$GSPTS p&f chart "Double Top Breakout on 23-Jul-2010" http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$GSPTS
S&P 500 Telecommunication Services Industry Group Index at 108. p&f chart preliminary Price Objective (Rev.) 126.0.
PCS' Blackberry Curve 8530: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/MetroPCS-Offers-the-prnews-392719003.html?x=0&.v=1
Eircsson LTE comments: PCS VZ T; http://connectedplanetonline.com/3g4g/news/ericsson-shipping-lte-gear-in-volume-0723/
S&P raises TP to $13 from $12 & "planned rapid move to LTE could make it an attractive acquisition candidate."
July 13, 2010
S&P REITERATES STRONG BUY OPINION ON SHARES OF
METROPCS (PCS 9.6*****):We expect PCS to report Q2 earnings results on
August 5, and we forecast revenue of $1.0B, EBITDA of $278M, and earnings per
share of $0.15.We have reduced our '10 earnings per share by $0.04 to $0.50 on
slightly higher net additions and higher equipment costs.We are raising our '11
estimate by $0.02 to $0.79 on lower expected churn.We also believe that PCS'
planned rapid move to LTE could make it an attractive acquisition candidate. We
are increasing our 12-month target by $1 to $13 based on enterprise
value/EBITDA peer analysis. /J.Moorman-CFA, from S&P's PCS Stock Repot dated 7/13/10
"We will have to prepare ourselves for the fact that soon the telephone will be be one of those things we will be carrying around with us all the time, like our watches, notebooks, handkerchiefs, and wallets." Berliner Illustrirte Zeitung, November 2, 1919;
taken from the book Einstein, by Jurgen Neffe, 2005, page 14:
"A precursor of today's mobile telephone, which had just been introduced by the 'Society for Wireless Telegraphy,' was creating a sensation among the Germans. The Berliner Illustrirte Zeitung, which, as always, had its finger on the pulse of the times, reported, 'We will have to prepare ourselves for the fact that soon the telephone will be be one of those things we will be carrying around with us all the time, like our watches, notebooks, handkerchiefs, and wallets.'"