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A lot of frustration here
But you said you were at peace with it. Am I wrong?
Unofficially, we've been in a binary outcome mode for few months now. The score board shows we are down by 9 points with 2 minutes to go. We are backed up to our 1 yard line, and have a rookie QB throwing the ball. We need a TD and a FG to win. No timeouts, no challenges left. No room for a mistake. Can we score? It's possible, but I'm afraid Blew could finish the game with pick six with an assist from KZ.
PS. This field is the best place to punt: the air is so rarefied that the ball can hang for 25 seconds and travel 115 yards.
I have not found any single insider buys (Form 4s) filed with the SEC on Edgar. Can you provide any link to those insider buys?
“. I was much more unhappy and miserable when I was wealthy than I am now.”
———————————————-
If you desire more happiness, buy more shares of Advaxis then. Pretty simple solution for you to find a balance between Yin and Yang.
But you can always unretire and open a dental clinic for former and current Advaxis shareholders. You may offer anesthesia free root canal procedures by soothing their pain by telling them stories about Advaxis’ great future and $145 per share visions.
Although they can certainly surprise us with something out of blue, but I think the next two months are going to be relatively quiet. The next bifurcation point is the next conference call. We should hear about any progress in AXAL talks, if any. Will they unwind Aim2Cerv trial or not, what the future for ADVANCE? If Ken fails to ink a cash deal by then, we will be around $1 by then.
Your post is full of conjectures and hopium. The reality is that Ken threatened to wind that trial down of it's not partnered or licensed out. You believe that Ken made an "empty threat" to force the potential partners to sign a deal. That's your prerogative. Ken is too weak to twist big whales arms even if they existed.
Ken has made that statement during the last CC. That's what exactly puzzles me, and based on the share price reaction, lots of other big and small folks. Why would Ken make that statement? To save money and focus on NEO and HOT, that's his reasoning. He would not have threatened to wind the Ph3 trial if it was not sucking the cash out of depleted ADXS coffers. To play a hardball in negotiations would be stupid for Ken as he does not have any leverage.
You dont' make those statements if you are not prepared to back them up! We shall see if Ken is really stupid or a genius pretty soon.
If they stopped enrollment, then the CT would be as good as terminated since the data will not be acceptable for the FDA per SPA agreement.
Wouldn’t a phase 3 this size cost upwards of 30 million
Day 115 of the HOLD.
For some strange reasons, I expect some positive news to come out this week or early next week. Let's see if my refurbished crystal ball v5.11 is working. Otherwise, I'm going to demand a refund from the vendor.
@wmtgreeter and a proud GED holder in nano-crystals.
I am not a lawyer, and I am not even playing one on TV. I am just a @wmtgreeter with a GED in paralegal sciences, thus this is not an expert advice as opposed to many posters on this board who continue to provide their professional views on the company’s future albeit turned out to be complete fantasies.
My understanding is that some companies are in a state of permanent negotiations. Meanwhile, their management may make open market purchases of their company’s stocks. It depends on the stage of negotiations. If the negotiations are deep into a finalization stage, they cannot buy shares legally in the open markets. In the early stages, they can as nothing concrete was offered or exchanged.
Advaxis seemed to be one of those companies who proclaim to be having talks with potential partners. The fact that the management did open market buys recently is indicative that nothing concrete was on the table. It doesn’t mean the situation can not change now. Or,the state of negotiations may be completely different now than in early June. We shall see. It can change quickly, and if Ken is aggressive he can work out deal within a month or two.
Of course, it’s Insider information:
From SEC site:
INSIDER TRADING
Illegal insider trading refers generally to buying or selling a security, in breach of a fiduciary duty or other relationship of trust and confidence, on the basis of material, nonpublic information about the security. Insider trading violations may also include "tipping" such information, securities trading by the person "tipped," and securities trading by those who misappropriate such information.
Examples of insider trading cases that have been brought by the SEC are cases against:
Corporate officers, directors, and employees who traded the corporation's securities after learning of significant, confidential corporate developments;
Friends, business associates, family members, and other "tippees" of such officers, directors, and employees, who traded the securities after receiving such information;
Employees of law, banking, brokerage and printing firms who traded based on information they obtained in connection with providing services to the corporation whose securities they traded;
Government employees who traded based on confidential information they learned because of their employment with the government;
Political intelligence consultants who may tip or trade based on material, nonpublic information they obtain from government employees; and
Other persons who misappropriated, and took advantage of, confidential information from their employers, family, friends, and others.
Because insider trading undermines investor confidence in the fairness and integrity of the securities markets, the SEC has treated the detection and prosecution of insider trading violations as one of its enforcement priorities.
insider purchases are correlated with higher returns
Recall that many here were touting insider buys by DOC, SB, RP albeit their purchases were pre-planned. Those who saw that those purchases were just extra corporate "taxes" designed to show insiders confidence. They inflated their compensation to then "give something back" in form of monthly F4s. That's a gimmick.
Meantime, there was a finger pointing towards ADRO management that was selling their free shares left and right. The point made on the MB was that ADXS had a brighter future than ADRO due to these opposite transactions. Insiders buy, insiders sell... It did not matter, as our MC is 7.5 times smaller than that of ADRO. Go figure.
PS. Most recent insider purchases on the open market did not do a shit to this stock.
@wmtgreeter
I cannot recall seeing any IND filing PR ever. They'd PR once the IND approved. I don't expect any PR regarding that possible filing even it's already completed or to be completed soon.
Good news:
NTGN is down almost 20% since the IPO (6/27/18),
ADXS is down only 6% since 6/26/18 close.
The correlation is not too strong as many expected.
Day 112 of the HOLD. Would love to see a PR stating the hold is lifted, but alas...
I am afraid we will be printing new lows for a while now until we get THE NEWS. Very little trust in the management, and the markets are not impressed with Ken. He needs to prove them wrong. Until then we are in "show me money" mode.
Sorry to hear, Maple.
As for suing the management, I am afraid it's a futile undertaking at this point. Absent of any hard, concrete facts of improper behavior, this lawsuit is DOA. Class action law suits have a better chance of succeeding, albeit you'd get a small fraction of your original investment. What the BOD, and the former CEOs said during the conference calls is done under the safety of "safe harbor" statements which covers their asses.
You'd get a better chance of suing J&E or whoever was behind that character albeit it's a long shot. We all got sucked in here owing to sweet songs by a siren whose character needs to be studied in Con Artists 101 classes. I have never gone to college, just a GED, so it's beyond my intellectual comprehension.
@wmtgreeter
But I've positioned myself so that it won't end that way for me, personally.
Can you please clarify? Did you buy puts, or just your position in ADXS is relatively small fraction of your total portfolio?
I would not advise anyone to go beyond 3% of a total portfolio with hi-risk stocks like ADXS, but I made a huge mistake when jumped in here and pushing my ADXS:portfolio ratio to over 0.2. Big mistake and I regret it. May end up losing it all.
Are you not concerned about dilution down the road? Are you going to average down if this trend to continue? I am too will be holding all my shares till the end, but I'm not to going to average down until something transformational occurs. Not going to throw a good money after the bad. Need to see a sea of changes first.
@wmtgreeter
Question to Havacre:
At some point you mentioned that you'd be open to re-assess your position in Advaxis. Do you think that the time is now or you'd anticipate this is a temporary weakness and a turnaround is soon ahead? What would make you to liquidate your position in Advaxis?
Thanks.
@wmtgreeter
This continuous price drop is indicative of:
1) Some big fund(s) reducing their positions;
2) Markets are expecting a secondary at some point soon, or news is leaked;
3) Something other, we should know soon.
Not encouraging.
They are RSUs handed out on a golden plate. All on the back of shareholders.
Read note 1 on the form:
Explanation of Responses:
(1) Represents restricted stock units awarded as compensation for services on the Executive Committee of the Board of Directors.
Down 5% now. Not a type of welcome some here expected. First stage rocket booster failed for ADXS liftoff.
https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ntgn/real-time
NTGN started trading at 11am. Down 3% now.
They will likely not PR an IND filing, but maybe an approval would be PRed. The FDA review process might take 1 month or much longer depending on their questions or concerns. They seem to be more anal now than before regarding these new therapies. FDA recently put ZIOP clinical trail on hold even on IND stage citing "CMC issues". Thus, the guidance was the end of 2018 to get into clinics. I hope they partner before even submitting IND, lest they can't run the trial due to funding issues or lack of thereof.
I know you are not.
Wrong. As you said it with that a certainty, I'm going to stop paying attention to what you say anymore.
So, Blue, your "buddy" took a stake in GBT yesterday and it was a great move as you said. Your post also stated (before it was deleted) he expected that ADXS would be making such a great move up as he also took a position in ADXS.
Now GBT is down 10%. Do we want to follow your "buddy"?
Please tell me what positive developments besides Eu submission have we seen in the past 20 months? Do you suggest falling from $30 to $1.50 must be taken as a great sign and be cheered by the shareholders? Is losing about 95% acceptable?
Why do you remain oblivious to the harsh facts? Or, are you on the winning side?
FBG0316 wrote:”I would argue that short interest has dropped more “
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I was wrong too as I predicted only a slight uptick in SI. It turned out to about 900,000 which is 30% increase.
The short grips are getting tighter and tighter even at these levels. It does tell you a lot. They expect the price go down sub $1. Unless Ken turns this company around we are heading into a delisting sooner than the EU approval.
Hovacre,
I appreciate your level of optimism. I'm an optimistic pessimist by nature, and this is completely unnatural for a person who makes living by putting a smile mask at the Gates to the Paradise.
@wmtgreeter
Thanks for sharing this story. But you know very well that for every company with this amazing turn-around story there's another story of a failure. We shall see how our story is written in a year or so.
One major difference from AVEO is that they had a partner before an EU submission. We don't. Whether we shall get one soon or not is as clear as mud. Their EU approval timeline suggests that we can start anticipating our decision sometime in June '19. It was not a slam dunk before Ken, and now it's even lower probabilities of a conditional approval since Ken suggested they may abandon AXAL altogether if no funding is available. It's not clear how this company is going to survive by mid 2019. Another poisonous raise?
For a long period of time, Advaxis was hiring like they were growing at a rapid speed. Five or more job postings were a norm, an now they have just 2 two-months old posts on LinkedIn. Many folks here were encouraged by the hiring spree during DOC regime taking that as a sign of a bright future, but when the hiring spree continued during the Lombardo times, some were really puzzled and questioned the sanity of that unrestrained spending. Folks with the rosier views suggested it showed the strength of the company that something very positive was ahead. The rationalization was that the management knew much more than the retail investors, and the cash would be coming to support that growth. It was either the management was insanely smart or stupid to do so. Once Ken assumed his tenure as a CEO, and announced a 24% reduction in the work force, it became obvious that the latter was the case. As it turns out, the Tony's tenure was a colossal failure. He failed to control the spending, failed to strike any deal, and finally raised cash via a disastrous secondary. For those who assume that Tony has pre-arranged a deal/partnership for Ken to sign, think again. I am afraid it's a myth. Just a hopium.
Ken's under a tremendous pressure to turn the company around. If and when he does, the stock price will follow. Right now there is no trust in the company and its management, and that fact is reflected in the share price and the market cup.
Amgen got a pretty sweet deal when they bought NEO. About $65M prepayment for a deal that could be worth anywhere between $5B to $15B if the platform works. These numbers could be very well conservative. It’s like taking really cheap long term options for them to see if works. They are not losing much if it fails, but it’s a death sentence for Advaxis.
Amgen can seat and wait and observe the progress made at Advaxis or lack of thereof. They will not jump now as they get little heat from the competition. Not yet. As more and more companies are moving into the area, they will not be able to exercise patience any longer. Time is money for them, and they know it very well. Then, they can make a move. It depends when. If Advaxis is on life support by then, they’ll grab our corpse for peanuts. If we are still in the business due to some other cash influx (think Merck), then they’ll pay a fraction of what they make selling the the. product . They have little to lose, and lot to gain.t That’s whythe stalemate
Day 108 of the HOLD. Geezus! Enough is enough.
No deals as of this morning yet as some "dreamers" envisioned over the weekend? No concurrent runup into double digits with NEON? No beech sold? Where's Blew's Buddy to support the share price?
I wouldn’t call them as transformational events, those were just statements yet. Hiring a CFO is not transformational event either although it’s a positive move.
The event I am looking for is a new deal or an expansion of the existing partnership to bring a load of cash. A breakthrough designation for an IND. Earth shattering data. None of those have occurred, haven’t they?
These $20 by the end of 2018 are nothing but a pipe dream and folks who continue to predict these sky high target will be proven wrong once again. Too many stars have to be aligned perfectly to get even over $5 within six more months. Advaxis is on a slippery slope as the result of multi year mismanagement by never ending parade of shady CEOs. The jury is still out on Ken but the clock is ticking. First 60 days are over and we are yet to see any transformational move from him.
Meanwhile, Day 106 of the Hold and counting.
Don’t be surprised to see a slight uptick in short interest when the next SI data is released. They didn’t cover 3M shares yesterday, it was Russell index rebalance. Remember Advaxis was kicked out of R3K? It sucks.
Yes, we are going to da Moon!
Keys on ignition!
Ten, nine, eight, ....
Lift off!
It’s September 2023.
is in stealth mode?
Because we are visible only for shorts, while we reflect the waves that are outside the frequency range for long funds and they fails to notice us at all.
the buying the BOD did to try to get this moving the other way didn’t work.
It actually did an opposite: it sent a message that no concrete deals are in works, no imminent material events are in a near term horizon. That's why, the pressure. Which is now exacerbated by Advaxis being kicked out of Russell index. Recall that we were forced out of Brad Loncar Cancer Index sometime ago. We are in a stealth mode, and many take as a sign of something massive coming. Ken has yet to prove he can change the momentum. As one of the former NFL players (then an ESPN analyst) said: "Force times the acceleration, and you get a penetration". Did not know if was familiar with the classical mechanics or ever heard about Newton's laws, but I guess his jersey # (52) showed his IQ level.
@wmtgreeter and a GED holder in non-classical mechanics.
As may have already noticed, the BEECH gets sold every day at a frequency of 1Hz or higher, by 100-share batches. That's been a MO for many months now.