Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Wave count = Wave 2 Flat
Wave C of the flat looks motive in the SPX, but choppy in the NDX. The SPX is a case of an extending flat, where the NDX is a running flat whose wave c is looks to be forming an ending diagonal. Wave 5 of wave c is left to complete the Wave 2 flat that started from the May '06 lows.
I'm looking for a top over the next 4 to 8 trading days.
McHugh DOW Wave Count Favored
Robert McHugh forecasted a wave 2 zigzag of the June lows. So far his count is holing up really well.
NIKKEI GAPs down.
The past 5 days look like a really choppy advance typical of an ending diagonal (ED). The gap down today is typical post ED behavior. More rapid selling would confirm the start of another significant bear market wave.
Bought GOOG and SPY puts
The rest of the world markets have completed their wave 2 running flats. wave 3 is going to extend and drop a good 16 to 20% over the next month.
What is TOM?
Thanks for the advice. I've been very careful about entering a short position. The Ending Diagonal count has not given me the sell signal yet. The rally off the June lows is starting to look less like an ending diagonal, and more like a larger corrective move of the bear market rally. I'll wait since the system is so unstable to the downside.
Oil As Weapon
Most people have already factored in the possibility of Iran using oil as a weapon.
For the week ending 20060623,
Markets look like they are finishing up wave c of a wave 2 running flat that started from the May '06 lows. A running flat in a Wave 2 position signals an extremely strong underlying market trend. The SPX and Russell 2000 are not confirming the NDX and DOW in a longer term rally.
The Dow Industrial Avg between the May '06 highs and June '06 lows looks like a zigzag at first glance. A closer look at wave b of the Wave 2 running flat shows a clearly zigzag nearly the size of Wave 1. A disproportionately large wave b in a flat signals a very strong larger trend. Wave c of the Wave 2 flat started off strong and has weakened into a choppy advance near the terminal off larger Wave 1. Overlapping waves signal an ending diagonal, and a sharp reversal once complete, due to a very strong larger trend. The strength of the underlying trend is also indicated by wave c lacking the momentum to reach the level where wave a ends. Wave a of the flat has retraced a hair more than fibonacci 38.2 % of Wave 1. A shallow retracement indicates a strong larger. The fib time relation is Wave 2 took twice as long as Wave 2 to complete. McHugh has a more bullish count, but the rest of the markets are not confirming it.
The NASDAX 100 shows a much weaker wave c ending diagonal of Wave 2 running flat than the Dow shows. Little wave 4 of the ED nearly retraced little wave 3. For the ED to avoid truncation, a 40 point rally needs to take place over the next 2 days.
The Russell 2000 may have already completed the Wave 2 flat, and started the larger Wave 3. The wave c probably ended in mid June '06 at 702.82. This barely overlapped larger Wave 1. The 10 day chart of 5 min ticks shows support for this count. The index has not matched new highs made by the DOW and NDX in their wave c.
The SPX is a mystery.
wave a of the wave 2 running flat retraced 55% of Wave 1. wave 3 of the ED just missed finishing above wave 1. wave 2 of the ED was clearly a zigzag, so it can't be the beginning of larger Wave 3. wave 4 of the ED did not end lower than wave 3.
Internationally
Bombay Stock Exchange. May '06 top to June Low is Wave 1. Wave 2 is a nearly completed zigzag. The 50% fibonacci price target is 10735. The fibonacci time target is 1 or 2 more days.
The French CAC and German Dax have the same wave counts.
There are several wave counts. The most bearish is wave 2 of Wave 1 of WAVE 1. wave 2 has retraced a fib 62% of Wave 1. The most bullish is a 6 week zigzag is finished, and a rally to new 52 week highs is beginning. THe bearish count is prefered since the 2 week rally off the June lows is choppy.
The London FTSE has the same wave count as the DOW. The flat is textbook perfect. The HSI has the same count as the Dow. The major difference of this index is it has many gaps.
The Nikkei is nearly done forming a zigzag. I just don't know to which degree it belongs.
The Shanghai looks like it has nearly finished a wave 2 zigzag. There should be another day of rally to bring the retracement to a fib 62%. The Shanghai differs in that it was the last major market to top in early June '06 while others made their turn in mid May '06.
Oil is in wave d of a triangle.
Triangles signal 2 things:
1) There is one last motive wave of the same degree left.
2) The wave following a triangle in commodities is usually the largest with multiple wave extensions or a parabolic spike.
The charts have been very choppy over the last 3 years that the I don't think the post triangle spike will happen.
Kudlow's tip
A triangle was just completed last week in the 10 yr bond yield. This week's rally to a new 52 week high looks like a completed wave 5. Since wave 3 is larger than wave 1, then what I think is a wave 5 could actually be a smaller degree wave 1 of 5. We should know fairly soon if the bond market catches a bid the next 2-3 weeks. It would coincide nicely with "flight to quality" as stock sell off.
NDX and DOW Ending Diagonal on Track
Today counts as wave 4 of the Ending Diagonal of wave c in flat 2 that started from the May '06 lows. wave 5 probably started today. Friday into monday should be a nice 1% rally, breaking yesterday's highs. There is a good chance of truncation since wave 4 of the ED retraced wave 3 so much. You can feel the gravity of fear tugging on the markets.
Although the SPX is twisting and turning with the NDX and DOW, wave 3 of the ending diagonal ended lower than wave 1. That violates Elliott's rules. The only comfort I'll take is if wave 5 of the ED also ends below wave 3.
Next week is looking very red. I did not short GOOG today even though the target was hit. I want to wait just a little longer for confirmation with the NDX and DOW.
GOOG on track,
GOOG came very close to the $405 level I mentioned this week. The charts have been too choppy the last 15 days to be motive. Today's move was too fast for me to want to short yet. Just as with the NDX and DOW, I think GOOG will sell off gradually tomorrow, find support in the afternoon, and rally through most of Friday. I'm looking to short Friday afternoon.
SPX not CONFIRMING NDX/ DOW
The SPX did not break last Thursday's highs as the NDX and DOW did. The SPX actually looks motive today where the NDX and DOW look like double zigzags. A quick burst in the SPX above 1259 to morrow morning would keep the wave 2- Flat C ending diagonal count alive. Other than that, a market melt down looms.
If the NDX and DOW are also in the wave 2- Flat C ending diagonal count, then they should gradually sell off at the opening and find support later in the day. I think Friday is when the pattern will end.
Deserted Board
I'm watching GOOG paint dry. $405 is where I think the e-waves are going to turn bearish. I don't want to go long so close to a strong potential turn.
SPX ZigZag
The bearish case is now the favored after todays selloff retraced Thursday's advance. That leaves a zigzag rebound off last week's lows.
The best possibility for bulls is this zigzag is the beginning of a complex, non motive wave to complete a multimonth ending diagonal that shallenges the 52 week high.
The next best bullish case is a multi day ending diagonal to complete wave c of the flat from MAy '06 lows.
The bearish case is gets bad and worse.
Later this week is a 1:1 ratio of May selloff to consolidation in time.
Market Outlook, Ewaves
Bullish case:
I would have to give serious consideration to the possibility the SPX May high sell-off was a double zigzag. This implies a final Ending Diagonal wave 5 would challenge the 52 week highs.
Bearish case:
The alternate count is the May low to present is a wave 2 flat. This implies a very strong selling over the next 3-4 weeks.
If the SPX drops below 1220 in the next week or two, then the bearish count was correct. It will be take longer to validate the bull case because wave c of a flat is a motive 5 wave sequence and the zig of a zigzag ending diagonal wave 5 is also a motive 5 wave sequence.
WTIC and SPX Wave Count
The pattern from the May lows looks like a flat. Today's rally certainly looks motive, and I'll bet if I turned on the TV, everybody will be singing "Happy Times Again". This behavior is typical in Wave 2 bounces in bear markets.
WTIC (texas oil) is near the end of its triangle correction. I think there are two days left at the most before the it gushes up again.
OptionKing:
Yes, GOOG should resume its larger downtrend within days. The closest downside target is $250. That's a fibonacci ratio of 1.62 with Wave 1. Since this is a Wave 3, it could go much lower before finding support.
Bombay - Bombs Away
Yesterday and today the Indian Bombay market trased out a zigzag correction. Next week looks horrible as a wave 3 of 3 continues the crash trend.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EBSESN&t=5d
SPX Intraday Ewaves
The first half of the day finished up a triangle, so the sell off since Wednesday is due for a bounce. Today's late rally broke the downtrend resistance. Since 1 PM today the wave looks like a flat. The retracement is closing in on the 1/3 area. THis could be a very short term consolidation. Set stops at today's lows if long.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=SP500&sid=3377
GOOG Ewaves
From the May '06 lows GOOG's consolidation is nearly done. This is an XYZ correction, and not a triangle, since this is in the wave 2 position, not 4. Another $10 to $15 upside remains before the larger downtrend resumes.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOOG&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p57276382892
LEH drops 4%
There goes the financial sector.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LEH&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p98331346671
SPX Wave 3 of 3 of 3
The market is accelerating to the downside. Waterfalling. Wave 2 of 3 (1235 to 1262) only took 2 days. By Friday the markets could face more than a 5% loss for the week.
It's not inlfation. Speculators piled into stocks when interest rates were much higher. Oil is poised to spike. It's been forming a triangle.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$spx&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p98331346671
NIKK drops 4% Oh Crap!
It took the financial media awhile to point out the NIKKEI's downtrend, only after losing 10%. The Western Markets should accelerate their slide now. One indicator confirming fear in the market is oil. It's nearly completed a triangle, and should be followed by a spike. $100+ per bbl is looking realistic.
LEH dropped 5.5%
This can't be a good sign for the financial sector.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LEH&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79232498186
RUT and SPX Ewaves
Russell 2000 (RUT)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$rut&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p87073609561
Wave 1
May high 784.62
May low 696.06
Change = 88.56, nearly fibonacci 89
time = 13 days fibonacci number
Wave 2
May low 696.06
Jun High 742.26
Change = 46.20, nearly fibonacci 50%
time = 6.5 days fibonacci ratio of 50%
Wave 3 will subdivide into relatively large elliot waves.
Wave 3,1
Jun High 742.26
Jun Low 684.91
Change = 57.35, Looks Motive
time = 4 1/3 days
Wave 3,2
high 714.15
Jun Low 684.91
Change = 29.24, fibonacci 51%
time = 0.8 days ratio is 18%,
More time needed. Wave 3.2 looks motive, so target price will probably go to 720, the 62% price retracement. Sometimes the wave 1 time forms a fibonacci ratio of wave 1 time + wave 2 time = 4.33 / .618 = 7 days. This would make Monday's close a turn target. If the price spends most of the day struggling to break resistance at 714, then chances of a gap down on Tuesday are high.
============================================================
SAP 500
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p87073609561
Wave 1
May high 1326.70
May low 1245.34
Change = 81.36,
time = 13 days fibonacci number
Wave 2
May low 1245.34
Jun High 1290.68
Change = 45.34, 56% retracement. caught between fibonacci levels.
time = 6.5 days fibonacci ratio of 50%
Wave 3 will subdivide into relatively large elliot waves.
Wave 3,1
Jun High 1290.68
Jun Low 1235.18
Change = 55.5, Looks Motive
time = 4 1/3 days
Wave 3,2
high 1262.58
Jun Low 1235.18
Change = 27.4, fibonacci 49.3%
time = 0.8 days ratio is 18%,
More time needed. Wave 3.2 looks motive, so target price will probably go to 1269, the 62% price retracement. Sometimes the wave 1 time forms a fibonacci ratio of wave 1 time + wave 2 time = 4.33 / .618 = 7 days. this would make Monday's close a turn target. If the price spends most of the day struggling to break resistance at 1262.58, then chances of a gap down on Tuesday are high.
It's reassuring to see both markets are in sync.
Chubbie: $145
" and I lower GOOG $145" means a $145 drop. That would be an intermediate term price target around $250.
Uncle_Chubbie: GOOG
I see your bearish flag and lower GOOG $145. ;o)
NIKK 2 gaps down in 5 days
This is starting to behave like a Wave 3.
Fibonacci target signal turn.
The SPX and NDX are within 1 or 2 points of reaching fibonacci retracements in price and time. The Dow Jones Industrial Avg overshot the 38% retracement in wave a, but wave c is 4 points from the 38% retracement. The DJIA also has a fib time ratio going for it too. All 3 indexes are very close to completing their consolidations using elliott waves. The methods are confirming each other.
Fibonacci Targets
SPX 1287 50%
NDX 1618 38%
INDU 11275 38%, 11350 50%
Aire: Hurst Accuracy
90% success rate for an average of 8.9% profit every 9.7 days is phenomenal. Even though I have the Hurst PM book, I haven't read it as thouroughly as Prechter's E-Wave book.
DB = ???
Dead Bounce
Double Bottom
Don't Buy
kspiering: Cycles Stats
I read somewhere a claim of 95% accuracy for Hursts Cycles. They must have figured out how to account for changing cycle period. I'm working on another spectral analysis approach. It requires a math / science degree to understand and implement in software.
Still in Corrective Bounce
Today looks like a small wave b down of a larger wave 2 up. Small wave c started in the latter half of the day. The larger wave 2 up should finish Friday, Monday opening at latest.
Fibonacci Targets
SPX 1287
NDX 1618
INDU 11350
WMT - Island Reversal
More downside to follow.
Where is Blissbull to pop open the huney?
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=WMT&data=Z15&date=053006&den=HIGH&divd=Y&am...
TLAB Stairsteps Lower:
Also called lower-lows, lower highs.
This is looking like a cascading series of elliott waves 1-2. Get ready for the waterfall drop of $4 to $6 underway. SHORT TLAB.
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=TLAB&data=Z60&date=053006&den=HIGH&divd=Y&a...
Twiny markets at Fib Point
I noticed the choppy trading with a slightly downward bias. That is a sign of a strong market. What is going to be exciting is how the larger pattern resolves itself. The SPX sold off 2/3 of the last rally. The time ratio was 60% rally 40% selling. Charts would look better if a 2-3 day rally started tomorrow for 2 - 2.5% gain. THEN the consolidation would be more text book. I think the NDX didn't even reach the 38% retracement. The SPX turned between 38 and 50%, so an attempt for 50 or 62% would be in order.
Oil Pop!!
I think there will be another pop in oil start in the next 2 weeks It looks like a wave 4 triangle consolidation in it wave d. This should be a pop to the $80/bbl area. The fear that drives commodities UP, drive equities DOWN. Equities are looking to consolidate from a sell off and oil is looking to consolidate from a rally.
DAX BOUNCE
The Dax bounce is much more Fibonacci in time and price.
The time is 8 days selling, 3 days corrective buying.
The target prices are
5761.32 38%
5837.90 50%
A double zigzag looks nearly done. A rally tomorrow to teh 5761 area is not too far, and not too close. The DAX will be a good index for gaging the US markets.
NDX, SPX, DJI BOUNCE
The past two days are looking very corrective from an elliott wave view. Upside targets for this wave 2 bounce are shown below:
NDX
1618.31 38%
1637.9 50%
SPX
1277.42 38%
1287.02 50%
DJI
11274.84 38%
11350.33 50%
The 38% retracements have almost been met by the DJI and SPX. They are ideal candidates for a pop-and-drop tomorrow at the opening. The NDX does not confirm this since it would have to pop 1% at the opening. The time proportion has a weak fibonacci ratio of 11 days selling to 3 days consolidating. More likely the consolidation will take 5 or 8 days to complete. Heavy selling tomorrow wouldn't necessarilly mean the consolidation is done. My preferred wave count is a single or dounble zigzag. A flat is possible. Either way, I'm looking for selling most of Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
Chuck703VA
Yeah, I meant 38%. I really want to go short after a sharp bounce is done. Maybe all in.
Frank: 2 EDs
What you are calling and ending diagonal rally out of the day's lows could be a LEADING diagonal. The difference is a leading diagonal breaks down into smaller waves of 5-3-5-3-5. An ending diagonal breaks down into 3-3-3-3-3.
There is another possibility, a series of waves 1-2-1-2-1-2 off today's bottom. This would be much more bullish. Probably enough to get a 3% retracement of the selloff from the 52 week highs.