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XIV is a no brainer at this level, almost down to multi year lows. The fact that theoretically anyone should be able to make money at these levels is the very reason the upside is very limited and may be none.
I have been trying to short it for the past two weeks but no shares were available to short. That gave me a hint that this was about to take a dive and that the insiders did not want people to make money on the way down.
Hope you trade pays off. But the risk to the downside should not be too much at this point.
Personally I'm hoping the snp trades below 600 in the next two years or so.
The volume on xiv is telling me that someone knows something. I believe that is by far the highest volume recorded on that stock. Let us see what happens tomorrow. The vix will definitely correct. But not as much as most anticipate.
Now you are down 50% going long. Should have stayed the course. XIV is getting killed.
2645 is doable on the snp. I think it will be reached this week.
VIX makes a 52 week high
We reached the 3% correction today on an intraday basis. I believe there is further downside before some kind of a bounce.
We got a 2% correction but not three. sixth sense tells me we are in the early stages of a correction. A lot of folks back in 1999-2000 lost a lot by going long at this stage.
Toys r us closing 20% of its stores.
Kimberly Clark laying off 5000 people.
Others are about to join the band .....
"(sell the farm and buy stocks if vix gets over 22 next couple weeks0".
Not sure if I would totally agree with that. Just like the vix has stayed in the 10-12 area for the past few years, which was very out of the norm and defied all logic, because the market was manipulated. It could similarly stay above the 25 level for the next few years and trap the folks who were relying on the market to go up. I have a feeling that vix will stay high for a very long time to come once the correction sets in.
Just as an FYI. The Fed has indicated that it plans to raise interest rates 7 times thru 2020 in increments of 25 basis points. That does not seem like a very aggressive move. I was hoping they would do it 12 times thru 2020 in increments of 25 basis points. This is necessary to combat inflation that has already set in.
There is a prediction by some analyst, whose name I can't recall, for the snp to reach 3050 before a top occurs. SMH
At this point I believe it as the previous top was called at 2200. Now we are a full 20% above that. 3050 is approximately 15% away from yesterday's close.
Good observation. Looks like SPX is on track to close negative.
Bearish development on the SPX. ST target pointing to 2546 and then to 2482 by early December. This could be the top.
I think we rally to 2592 - 2593 tomorrow or Monday and then correct over the next two weeks.
A close below 23200 will confirm if the bears have any muscle.
what is the criticality of this juncture. Please explain.
Thanks for your research and posts. Everyone is shaking their heads in disbelief as the markets have defied gravity without a good reason.
Your timing looks great. Futures are tanking.
One thing I wanted to point out is that in this correction the SPX held its gap from last month. That may be considered bullish. A move to 2460 -2470 on an intraday basis cannot be discounted. Some economists are predicting dow 24000 sometimes this year if trump's tax reform passes. If it does not then look out below sooner than later.
"we’ll enter into the final stages at the end of this year or the beginning of next year."
Been hearing this for two years now. I don't think anyone has a clue.
I believe the top is in. I have shorted qqq today with ten % of my fire power. Volume is on the low side. Being careful this time. SPX above 2455 is in the short zone as well. Let us see what happens.
what makes you think that we will rally back to new highs after a 10 % correction.
I'm not in it, so no worries about the div. But I have a feeling the market will move up into triple witch next week. So im not shorting anything till then.
Thanks for sharing your email. I am not looking for anyone LOL Just wanted to share thoughts about the 3Q's and the market in general.
With the Fed poised to raise rates this week and downgrades to aapl, I don't believe there will be a new high in the Q's. The latest up move in the Q's was designed by the MM's to weed out the retail shorts for the way down, some of who probably got margin calls at 144. I saw this kind of action in 2000 just before the dot com bubble bursting.
On a different topic, would you like to share your private email with me in a private message. We could both benefit each other.
Exited my QQQ short this morning for a 1.39 point gain (phew). Now I can go relieve myself.
No backing for student loans and credit card. Auto loans are backed by the fact that a car can be repossessed if the loan is defaulted.
Good job on your part. I'm still in my short. This happened so fast. I Was in an all day meeting. would have got out if was not tied up. Do you know what the last day is to avoid the dividend charge on QQQ.
why the selloff in the techs. Everything else was stable.
when is that happening. Been hearing bout it since late 2015
Interest rates are on the rise. After being next to zero.
So you think there will be new highs shortly. Why would they give shorts a better opportunity. Does not make sense to me. A perfect play would be to keep everyone thinking new highs after a 5% correction and then pull it down instead of new highs. Longs will be trapped.
Ill take a 2% correction at this point to come out of my short. This market keeps on moving up. Although it could start moving down Tuesday. Vix at the lows, volume is low (red flag for bulls). You are correct, there is a ton of money to be made on the short side. Keeping my fingers X'd, that this was the high.
I shorted QQQ today at 139.69. Very nervous right now. Historically the market has rallied the Friday b4 memorial day. The volume on the Q's was very low. Let's see what happens tomorrow.
Very low volume on the Q's
impressive chart. I like long term charts. I believe a 90% drop is very real. It will be fast and furious. The current rally may last till the long weekend.
Are you still holding your QQQ position. I don't see a new high in QQQ.
Needing Viagra now
Keep this short. Looks like the selloff is taking hold. QQQ down in AH due to FB. Goog is next to report.
AAPL up before earning usually means down after earnings. Let see if this holds.