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Just an FYI, at the moment everything is fitting together for us to follow the weekly update.
I'm playing the same play I made the last time. Long TVIX and open a DUST position 1/3 the size of my NUGT. I really don't want to be short metals when it starts the next move higher. Many will assume it's only a bounce and it will be much more IMO>
I'm gonna show you guys something about wave counting after the close. I think this is important because we play so many moves off the bottom. I have a very easy way to tell if you have 1-2-3-4-5 or a-b-c. It's important to know what you're starting with because most corrections start with 3 waves while most reversal of impulsive waves start with 5. I'm see many counting 5 waves when theres only 3 and I think this will help.
It would be nice if coal wasn't is such bad shape but it's bad. So while I am going to trade a possible bounce with oil I'm going to keep it very close to the chest.
If we don't break 1200 I would think we'd at least close the gap
You're reading my mind. have to think the high is in and we're headed back under 1200 for the pullback I was talking about. This is only a retrace IMO and we will be headed higher after it completes. Again only my opinion but I want to make sure no one thinks I'm changing my longer term outlook.
You want to use the closet month that's still trading and as soon as you notice that data is not being printed on that chart you move to the next. It's tied to the roll dates but whatever platform you're using should auto select the correct month.
2nd TVIX buy, holding 1.58 avg.
Check out the dollar
That's funny my friend, not laughing it you laughing with you because I was in the very same place you're at not to long ago. You just don't know until you know, that's all there is to it. I promise you if you stick with it it'll pay off in the end and it does get much easier. If I didn't have someone sit me down and tell me what I was doing was fundamentally flawed I'd still be doing the same thing and be happy doing it. That's one of the huge benefits of sharing information and how we as traders learn. I know that's how I did it.
I'm thinking anything over $52 could cause a squeeze but as you mentioned there's a series or resistance levels that starts at $52.50. So I guess you could say there's a band of resistance from $52.50 to $54.25. However resistance or not oil is heavily shorted and if it kicks off we could see a $5= run from just about anywhere IMO.
BAA .24 just a little more baby and it's off to the races.
KEEP AN EYE ON OIL. This could just be a minor new high before it rolls but if it goes it's gonna be for real.
GREED!!!!
Like I was saying I completely understand the question because I did it that way for years. But once I realized all I had to do was concentrate on the futures it changed everything.
Let me ask you a question? Why would you want to follow so many charts? Why not just use the source document and be done with it?
Bud I don't think that average trader has a clue what's about to happen.
I do believe we'll have a chance soon enough but until the market is ready to cough it up we just have to play the game. I did re-enter TVIX this morning and I'm currently down .02 but I can't overlook the risk/reward on this particular entry. I still think ES has a chance to hit 2020 and I still think ES can hit 2150 but after that we could have a chance to play the short side. Lust have to let it develop and seize the opportunity when it presents itself.
Thanks Neuro, I'm hoping it's not done, I'd love to see it break over $52 here because that could set off a $4-$5 squeeze. I just can't leave my trades the way they are without rebalancing. Thanks to everyone for their suggestions over the last few weeks. No matter what happens here, either a breakout or pullback, we're gonna have at least one more chance to play oil for that move up to $60 IMO.
I understand 1000% make that 10000%
Taking profits on all of my oil plays, I could be wrong but a 6% raise in spot is huge
I just posted the top 50 performing small caps for today in the ibox
Isn't it crazy how bad news is good news.
I understand your question, lol. Like I said it's a good one because I had the very same question myself. It's just common sense. I mean why not use what you're trading. Here's what Minyanville has to say on the subject. I have a slightly different take and will reply as soon as I have time.
Trade off the benchmark or asset charts, like Nasdaq 100 or commodity spot prices, not the chart of the ETF you're leveraging. If you're using technical analysis (which I suggest doing with these investment products because they are trading vehicles), always use the actual benchmarks chart to generate trading signals. Do not use the chart of the leveraged ETF. This means that if you want to use a leveraged ETF to trade oil or gas, use the actual spot price of oil chart or the spot price of gold chart to generate your trading signals. These charts are more reliable and better indicators of the sentiment of the market than the actual ETFs. For example, if I looking at a chart of the Nasdaq 100 Index, and it looks like it is technically breaking down and I want to short the Nasdaq, I will wait for a break on the actual Nasdaq 100 chart to make my trade, and then buy the inverse (or short Nasdaq 100) ETF to make my trade, I will not use the chart of the inverse Nasdaq leveraged ETF
Read more: http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/etfs/articles/leveraged-ETFs-trading-tips-trading-ETFs/6/11/2012/id/41634#ixzz3WYLC8LMw
That's a good question, actually it's a great question. I'll reply here shortly but oil could be breaking out. Want to see if it can do it.
If it does turn down I'm going to short UWTI
The dollar just turned green
Oil is approaching the top trendline and if it doesn't turn down it could get very ugly for shorts.
It did break out of the triangle but that triangle is contained within a channel. Typically we'll see the top trend line on the triangle now act as support and more times than not we'll get a test of that trend line before a break of the upper channel if it doesn't happen on the first try. That does two things, it shakes out the weaker hands and gives the technicals a chance to reset before the next push higher. Just trying to show the entire picture so everyone understands what's going on. I'm in INUV and bullish on the play so I obviously want to see it go higher but this is normal behavior and to be expected.
One thing that I do when I enter a trade is to make a plan B.
What do I do if it goes against me?
Of course the simple answer should be to stop out but and if you have any doubt that's the right answer.
Another way to go is to look for a place to enter where you can exit on the first bounce or pullback. I'm down .02 on TVIX and I'm still thinking the markets turn lower but if not I should be able to get out of this on the first retrace.
BAA-That's just about what I have. I'm seeing a ton of miners with bullish set-ups. I'm still thinking gold moves back over $1300 and GDX hits $25.
No worries long term, this is one of those small companies that actually has decent management.
HELI, a move through 1.47 could bring 1.65 pretty quickly.
You guys trading GLDD it's looking very nice here. I'm considering a trade here myself but want to see if ES is going to pullback or not.
Look at MILL, LOL
Breaking out of that channel will be huge, if not it could trend lower for a bit.