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For my one post allowed a day, i would think that the formation of an equity committee would result in a nice pop. Maybe the judge can find a little time to get off the GM BK and make a few rulings for Chemtura.
It sure has been nice around here with Arnold gone. I'm sure some of his other 'personalities' are lurking with other user names. I hope you enjoyed our little exchange over at yahoo.
Good luck buddy, don't strain anything.
For you relevant posters, here are a couple of links where news is most likely to come from:
http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/SCMP
http://www.chinaknowledge.com/
Chemtura didn't have a choice on extending the exclusivity to file a plan. Like it or not, we are taking a back seat to the auto industry with this judge, hence all the delays.
People are inherently impatient, so without news they tend to go elsewhere looking for greener pastures. I've done that before myself, thinking i had time to flip something and come back, but i got caught with my pants down when the news hit. It's not going to happen here. I'll sink with this ship.
But until the ship hits bottom or sprouts wings, I'll have to sit here and listen to bipolar limp noodles whine about a penny down and cheer 2 cents up to flip.
In the mean time, I giggle at the stocishs, open bottoms, sideways angle, candle burn from both ends, wipperdoodles, inverted lampshades, dimpled cellulites, spewing radiators, pinches and french ticklers of chart analizers.
If you want to know what the chart will look like with news, go look at the old PIR chart.
Chart guys, this won't be a chart stock for at least 4 or 5 months (after the news comes).
Arnold, my little buddy, I've got a message for you over at the yahoo boards. Make sure you have some kleenex handy.
Skl, this is an edit and this is my one and only allowed post for the day. Thanks for all the kind words fellas.
manti,
if they could have re-fied the bonds, they wouldn't be in bk anyway. if the credit industry wouldn't have cratered, we wouldn't be here, it's as simple as that. as far as chemtura making any money, hell they made money last month, but with the wisk of a pen they threw in 10 million dollars worth of depreciation for the month to wipe out 7 million dollars worth of profit (if i remember right, but you can re-check).
this will be my only post for the day, as the moderators got on my ass BECAUSE OF ARNOLD. MR. ARNOLD MUST HAVE WHINED TO THE POWERS THAT BE,,,,,THIS MAY BE MY LAST POST PERIOD. I have been limited to one post a day thanks to the board bipolar poster.
page 5 motion to extend:
finalize and start to implement the Business Plan, including taking steps where
appropriate to streamline business operations, reduce operating costs and
continue to evaluate the potential divestiture of individual operating
businesses;
read that last part VERY SLOWLY. CONTINUE to evaluate the potential asset sales of business segments.
(just a little translation on my behalf)
There is your proof that an asset sale is still a top priority.
his thoughts were echoed with pilgrim's in the early going also. once they turned a nickel profit, it started moving again,,,and look at where it is now. it's a q @ $5
arnold,
if you would quit rambling about things you know nothing about, you could better spend your time learning about how to preserve the NOL tax credits. chemtura would lose approximately $500 MILLION DOLLARS if they cancelled the shares OR diluted them more than 50%. coupled with the FACT that although they show POSITIVE net worth,,,,a net worth that is severely distorted through the way GAAP depreciation is shown,,,,the FACT of the matter is that this company could go into chapter 7, liquidate, and STILL put more than a dollar per share in your hand,,,IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO.
Do you NOW UNDERSTAND why they will not do an equity swap that changes ownership in the company more than 50%,,,which means THEY WILL NOT CANCEL THE SHARES?
Or why an asset sale would be more advantageous???
The shareholders would be better off with a chapter 7, than a cancellation. The same cancellation that the bankruptcy judge can't let happen because of the net worth of the company?
Do you have any more damn comments about cancellation?????
robo,
i'd rather not been the teacher of that lesson. i think im up 2400% since then. i got that 'bright idea' when pilgrims was looking EXACTLY LIKE chemtura is now. i knew better.
that's why i look at arnolds reasoning and say "ssshhhheezzz, wtf ever"
chemtura has a solid chance of hitting it out of the park. one asset sale, ka-fn-boom.
jrd,
you're right about the run. i was one of only a handful of folks that bought in at 13.5 cents a few minutes before close on the big sell off. rode it all the way up to .96 and then back down. i made the mistake of trying to flip it when it was about .70ish. my goal was to put away about 300,000 shares. i flipped into something that took a dump, and at the same time, pilgrims went the other way. lesson learned. damn near lost everything trying to hit the grandslam. just missed it,,,if i had hit it, i'd be on the beach right now.
robo,
very true, but i bet ol arnold is flipping the hell out of his 1000 shares.
robo, you left out number 3
3. Sometimes someone relies on true value of a company after extensive DD and says "i'm gonna buy the hell outta that", not taking into consideration neither momentum, volume, news, or any other thing. The only thing they look at is value and risk v reward.
this usually results in a "i don't have any idea why the stock moved up with no news......must be a leak" post on a message board.
nsom,
you're right about the 30 years.
oh robo,
you make that big time assumption that if fewer shares are traded that it will go down. not necessarily. where were you at when 5 million traded and it went down, but 2 million traded and it went up?
g2n,
the best question in a while..
taking into consideration of exactly how chemtura's assets are on the books,,,which is actual cost minus depreciation,,,you would think that a 700 million sale would take off 700 million of net worth. wrong. they will most likely sell a 700 million business that they have on the books for 200 million for example. what people have ALWAYS overlooked when doing the DD on this company is how the assets are valued. this company is probably worth more than 3x the current book value in a fire sale chapter 7 liquidation. hence, that's why they turned down 8 or 9 bucks a share last year. a 700 million sale may push the book upwards of $4. couple that with a surety that commons remain undiluted and the long term bond holders agree to the status quo before BK, and then bam, we sitting at $6 easy on the exit of BK.
and that is why i am scared to try to flip my 'rather large' position
homey,
here you go, and also the lyondell was 8.5 billion (i was just a tad off)
look at the chart on the bottom of the page,,,,it speaks volumes
http://www.thedeal.com/newsweekly/features/rigors-of-rehab.php
i know that because i have read both the pilgrim's filings and chemtura's filings in regards to the dip financing, coupled with an article about the recent BK filings and the availability (or lack thereof) of DIP financing. The only other BK that had a lender providing more than citibank in chemtura was a bank (can't remember) involved in the lyondell-basell BK. I think their dip loan was almost a billion,,,the most by far,,,and was handled by several lending institions, with one furnishing i think about 450 million of it. I'll see if i can find a link, but it may be toast by now.
xenn,
i would further add that some previous posters here and on the yahoo board have made statements that the asset sales were called off because the chinese submitted fire-sale offers. i don't find that to be credible, as no proof was ever offered. Rogerson has always said the best way out of this bind was with an asset sale and he hasn't done anything to show otherwise yet. Citibank has supplied the entire $400 million dip loan. They also bought a few million shares. In the last 12 months or so, Chemtura is the ONLY company that has retained a dip loan of this magnitude from a SINGLE lender. Pilgrim's Pride, for example, retained $450 million in dip financing, but it was from like 10 different banks spreading the liability around. Not the case here. You would 'think' they know they are safe, i.e., they know that there was talks of an asset sale taking place.
xenn,
think of it like this. Lazard and Co is being hired for financial planning and divestures, right?
well, common sense ought to tell you it wouldn't be worth hiring some big time expensive firm to handle some piddley non-core asset sales. that would be like hiring Christie's Auction House to do a garage sale for you. You can handle selling all the BS not worth anything, but when it comes to selling that Picaso, you call the experts.
invest = buying
divest = selling
financial planning = means you have money to play with
.......well at least this is how i like to look at the situation.......
i think it was yesterday i pointed out that circuitcity was granted the right to file certain documents under seal and 4 or 5 days later, the asset sale was announced.
filing under seal is something that is irregular in civil proceedings, but common under criminal proceedings
they obviously want to keep something secret,,,,most likely to not draw any objections from creditors on some of the outstandings motions yet to be decided by the judge.
under seal simply means they want to keep something secret. when circuit city did this, 4 days later they announced and filed for procedures to sale part or substantially all of the company. apparently something in the sale procedure or the bidder wanted to remain secret.
food for thought
maybe you should have read my earlier reply to you. it's explained there.
no, you're the guy that can't understand what $404 dollars of net equity means on the MOR. bluntly, it means that legally the shares won't be cancelled and an equity committee is in order. this company is NOT upside down. further, that $404 includes a virtual assload of depreciation which gives the net effect of showing the assets lower than their actual worth. the actual book value adjusted for true market value could easily be 3x what the book is now. did you notice the $10 million of depreciation in the last month's MOR? chemtura actually made $3 million last month net, but GAAP brings it to a loss. if chemtura was at the end of their depreciation schedule for whatever reason, they would be reporting profits and then maybe the news wires would say something about it.
keep posting johnny, sounds good.
speaking of asset sales,,,,,off topic but eddie bauer, for instance, has a minimum bid for their assets mostly in whole,,but the main point is that there wasn't any comments by the company pertaining to any sale, unlike chemtura's PR's, as a matter of fact only last week did the rumors come out about potential suitors. come to find out with their BK filing, they had shopped the company a couple of months ago to 50+ suitors, even setting up a private web portal for due diligence. 50+ potential buyers.....months ago.....and they kept a lid on it.
dont think for a minute that chemtura isn't still working on a do-able asset sale. just because you haven't heard anything, really doesn't mean much.
Sorry don't have PM capability, but have plenty of shares. If all the PM is for is to send in the equity committee form, please give a yes or no.
hey mate,
you're full of crap
phrantic,
add an instant 75 cents to a dollar, then follow with another 50 cents with a couple of decent PR's, then another 75-1 dollar with good news for commons,,,,,,followed by a trend upwards.........
(alot more than 37 cents)
i smell an asset sale. it takes several months for deals of the size Rogerson is looking for,,,,and well,,,it's getting about that time,,,,,not to mention the economy looks alot better on the surface now than it did 3 months ago. if they had buyers interested in february, then they are most likely still interested now, or even more so. take Hummer for example, it's been for sale longer than any of chemtura's divisions for sale, but yet a little know chinese company comes in and makes a deal. who could have seen that coming? same point here, you won't see it coming,,,,,it will be a surprise.........
jax,
it may not be a bad idea to tell her she was right, and keep the 7 figures under your hat just in case something hits the fan.
hey blue,
off topic
good lookin woman, no doubt,,,,don't know the story, don't matter to me.
but i will say i had one as good looking, even better looking imo as her, but chit hit the fan. now years later, i can say i lucked out, since she has gained probably 60 pounds......hell i didn't even recognize her looking at a current picture.....except her name was under the pic. i studied the pic for a few minutes and said 'wtf'? i guess she ate one to many twinkies.........
nothing worse than a damn smokin hot woman going down the toilet,,,,,unless she used to be your woman!!!!!
stkmnlg,
you will most likely wish you would have left 'your money' in. pullin initial capital is all fine and good, but not when your upside still has so much potential. got to have brass sometimes.
okay, where's that '10 cent' chart again?
so much for the charts
easy 3x or 4x from here with news, short term
congrats cemjq on your 40..... i'm not far behind
turbo,
i bought pilgrim's @ 13.5 cents. that said, i knew it was a bargain, but in no way can i calculate why it is at 4 bucks now. their total outstanding stock is about 75 million,,,,,of which bo pilgrim owns around 24%. he further controls the voting rights with about 60% of the votes. he is also chairman of the board. he also hired the new ceo and gave him a stock grant in and around 3 million shares. (i haven't been following that closely, so the numbers aren't exact). with all of the above things mentioned, obviously the common shares will almost certainly stay intact, as bo pilgrim would be better served with a chapter 7 liquidation than cancelling his own majority interest.
BUT as far as true value in the company, chemtura has a higher value as far as a marketable value. chicken plants have limited buyers,,,think about it. the ONLY reason pilgrims is where it is, is because bo pilgrim still controls the company and the common shares.....take that away and pilgrims may be trading at 50 cents right now. pilgrims is trading as if they aren't in BK.
Now if chemtura sold an asset with a PR that said commons would remain whole, then chemtura would trade in multiple dollars within DAYS. if you look at the ROI from day one of BK of each company, you will find that chemtura will be a better play. mark it.
okay, what about those stupid charts?
as i previously posted, charts don't mean diddley now, and as for you fellas that said it's going down to 10 again, well this ought to be a lesson in looking at the big picture and using your head, instead of relying on the dip'e'do's of a chart.
i hope you guys don't go crazy trying to tie charts to this stock,,,,,as it won't work. The only thing reliable about the chart is that it's trending up from bk.
also, some may think it has moved big on no news,,,well that's just not the case. The news has been in the court filings,,,,but alot of the time you think it will move, it won't,,,it just takes a few days for the legalese to sink in to the bigger buyers,,,aka, their legal department gives them an opinion,,,and then you see a pop......on supposedly no news.
next time you think a favorable court filing is filed,,,wait about 4 trading days and see what happens.
no this isn't a scientific study, but i've seen it to many times for it to be a coincedence.
stephen,
maybe you had doubts, but i haven't had a doubt since day one. the difference is that all i'm saying is that an asset sale would make this shoot off like a rocket, while taking the other route may take years. i'll take a couple of months over a couple of years anyday.
sorry turbo, but the 'creditors' will not go for a 'pennies on the dollar' equity swap,,,,,they would be better served with a chapter 7 liquidation. no way in hell they would exchange a billion + debt for 12 million dollars worth of stock.
insane huh?
whatever you think is fine with me, but the facts are the facts, and that is if an asset sale of substantial $$ takes place, all will be well in chemtura common stock holder land. if not, well.....you're balls are in a judges and lawyers hands.
big oil,
would you rather be the 3rd largest chemical company and struggling to pay interest on it's debt or the 4th largest kickin ass and cash flush?
let's see....the reason why they filed BK? for one, they couldn't re-finance the notes due and 2, they were burning through their cash to a point where they just about had none,,,,trying to adjust as quickly as possible to the downturn.
you make the assumption that the credit markets will look highly on a company with no cash and in BK.....looking to refinance.
a debt for equity swap on book value (which is low, and a poor indicator of actual worth) would or could be like this:
1.2 billion or so debt swapped for equity (shares) @ 15 cents a share = 8 billion shares + 242 million. your shares just became worth approx. 3% of it's current value ........shootin from the hip,,,,a little less than 1/2 of a cent. then comes the reverse split......so let's say this happens, you keep your shares, they come out of BK and the stock goes to $4 bucks.....what's your's worth? just about what it closed for today
watch what happens to General Motors and you'll see what i'm talking about
jonpro and turbo,
i respectfully disagree. Rogerson has not come off his strategy to sell a division. That is exactly what he did at hercules and intends to do here. Further, think of it like this: no asset sale most likely means severe dilution or possibly even cancellation (small chance) of the common shares. On the other hand, a $700 million asset sale will enable the company to pay off short term debt, leave enough extra cash to have the leverage needed to extend or re-finance the long term obligations, and lastly bring this company out of BK in short order,,,retaining full stockholder equity,,,and share prices zooming towards $5/share within months.
Now which one do you prefer? Keep the company intact and risk losing your butt, or selling off a piece and cashing in? I'll take the latter.