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Weekend thoughts.....
comments please
2bit
may be good for another day....but it's a slow grind to OEX 420ish
2bit
today just sucks... not going up nor down...
2bit
Rab,
Also, what I meant was every trader has his own style and it is best to have a system that fits his style.
I thought T Theory was a break through, but if it were it would not be free.
Just keep it simple, trade what you see and that's all
2bit
Gleno,
I think ur TTheory guru is not very good. He was preaching a new bull T a while ago. My work on the AD issues is signaling a cross over soon. This will be an extended down turn, similar to what was starting off in January. Last post from him was switching his topic from T-Theory to Envelope Theory, which is basically JM Hurst and head & shoulder turn. Then he diverted attention to Drunkard's random walk and market's conservation of energy by cycles. I guess no system is the best except ur own.
2bit
Alcoa posts 2Q loss of $454M on weak demand
Wednesday July 8, 4:28 pm ET
Alcoa reports 2nd-quarter loss of $454M as global recession continues to hammer demand, prices
PITTSBURGH (AP) -- Aluminum producer Alcoa says it lost $454 million during the second quarter as the global recession continued to dampen demand and prices for the lightweight metal.
Alcoa's loss of 47 cents per share is fresh evidence of slumping orders from key buyers in the aerospace, automotive and construction industries. Pittsburgh-based Alcoa Inc. says it earned $546 million, or 66 cents per share, in the year-earlier period.
Excluding restructuring charges, Alcoa's loss would be 26 cents per share. Analysts predicted a loss of 38 cents per share.
Aluminum demand tumbled with the global economy last year, driving up stockpiles and eroding prices. Producers have since slashed production.
that's what causing all these gap ups and downs in the morning...
wonder what the market would be like without futures...they were created for the farmers to hedge...like lean hog and corn...must be Goldman Sachs...and of course according to Matt Taibbi..LOL
2bit
I am missing someone to ridicule ...LOL
2bit
Where is NM these days?
2bit
Hey Gleno,
I don't think you want my clumpy system...just don't the want the board to loose money...LOL
2bit
Two
ya, I just closed out my puts and in cash and watch
2bit
Oh No Gleno,
call it as you see it... we love ur targets..
2bit
Thanks Fox
2bit
Fox,
nice chart..I agree with u ...turning is not that easy now...please explain FLD??
and thanks a million
2bit
You,
Thanks. may bounce at around 870 spx...the market is coming at exactly what you wish now..you must be a happy camper..
2bit
That means we gap down ...the famous Gleno indicator..LOL
2bit
Fox,
VXO broke out of EMA233 not good plus the DOW which is leading everything has fallen out of the H&S neckline....it will be ugly...SPX will follow does anybody have a target for the DOW??
2bit
so bounce is on the way but it may not be today...
thanks
2bit
Den,
I almost forgotten about Scamman's 3 pushes...good obs...should plough higher
2bit
Fox,
VIX reached upper band...should warrant a bounce? what's ur lovely chart says...
2bit
TWO,
ur brave, in this market. I closed all calls by the close yesterday. If I did not, OEX options are all back to square one today. I think market will bounce may be late today or tomorrow.
2bit
The market is a dangling participle today alright, now we need to wait for a full moon to go long again...LOL
2bit
Gleno,
when was the last time GM made any money at all? Lol
2bit
TTheory projected a top by Thursday, tomorrow afternoon, then come back to retest SPX 890. If that's the case then the right shoulder of the H&S will have been formed by week of July 14...wow Bradley turn date pal...
2bit
GM june sales down 33.6%
2bit
Boy, Oman,
ur making so much coins ? you need to buy another wheelbarrow?
2bit
Yes Fox,
In my count, it is the seventh day of suppressed state for VIX and in the lower BB...reversal any time now...and I think this should be the last wave up within the upward sloping bearish channel and eventually it will fall out for the market and should be a good shorting point
2bit
Folks,
This could be a head fake. -475k is worse than concensus of -395k. 10am we have ISM index and construction spending. Caution advised for bulls. Hold your party until after 10am.
2bit
not with VIX raising its ugly head
2bit
You, You ask me when you short..
Today's market action concerns me. The fact that it could not go higher than 930 SPX. We have to watch this new channel closely. Theoretically a short signal is out since it fell out of the previous channel. At the same time I will be watching the AD issues. At the formation or break of the neckline, there should be a deterioration of AD issues. If the H&S materialize, it will indeed be a turning point.
2bit
Rab,
I have not ruled out the H&S entirely yet...
2bit
You,
This is a million dollar question. If your time frame is 30 min you just missed one. If you do swing trade (> 1 day) then as long as OEX does not close above 432 today, you have a short signal, especially when VIX is on its way up. However, tomorrow you have ADP report, if good, everything will be reset. If bad, stay short
and should be good for a few days.
2bit
This is the stress with short term traders, you have to be mindful of everything. I closed my short term longs yesterday. But not willing to take a short position until it falls out of channel. The ADP employment report is tomorrow. The market can still go either way. But longer term market breadth is positive.
2bit
Not so, they need an indicator to reset the OB condition....
2bit
NYMO not OB, Institutional index heading up, they start accumulation again, hold on to your intermediate longs...
2bit
Light volume week historically
2bit
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/observations.aspx?ID=93803
Ya, but he had also mentioned, one other alternative which is continual up. Just something comes to mind....last two times NYMO approaching zero the next few days are strong up days, in fact my work has validated that. I am not at all surprised to see a 3% up day (200 Dow pts rise) come Monday. As to whether it will be a H&S or cup&Handle, we will have to wait and see. July will tell all.
2bit
You,
It is all about probability. $NYMO going back to zero means advancing issues are racing back up and the probability is higher on the up side. (2) consolidation at the high again indicates the probability is higher that it will continue to go up.
take a look at the post by evil rat, he has a more balanced approach to the market...that is if you don't mind his swearing from time to time..
2bit
http://evilspeculator.com/
You,
2 things,
(1) Look at the $NYMO chart by Hiker, what does it tell you?
(2) A Doji at the top of a previous white Candle, what does that tell you?
2bit
yes, equivalent to March11 and May29, but don't ask me how long it will last, I am working on that......projection target is the hardest
2bit