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I am sending a letter of protest to the Administrator for forcing PAYING CUSTOMERS to fill out surveys for information to be passed on to advertisers. I did not pay good money to be treated like this. This is outrageous. Anyone considering purchasing a membership should be aware of this treatment.
iHub should be ashamed.
EP
AMD is looking very desperate. Today's "product release webcast" was a joke. I can't even figure why they did it, if you are screwing up, why broadcast it?
You know I can't figure it out either. They're just embarrassing themselves and for what? What's to be gained by telling the world you can't produce competitive products? It would be better to remain quiet rather than confirm the obvious. Sort of like the old saying "It's better to remain silent and thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt".
EP
have you also noticed that Anand and other reviews continue to use SysMark 2002?
I haven't been paying much attention to how well non existant parts perform. <G>
EP
Your previous point was a good one. Being a couple months away means AMD is praying that a top metal layer fix will solve their problem but in my experience a metal layer only stepping change buys only a little. A full layer stepping change is much more likely to give big gains but that takes more time for Fab as well as validation etc. They are just barely getting 2400+s out the door and it's not a good bet that they will be able to ship 2800+ in anything resembling volume in the near term.
EP
As for Hammer, that is beyond even the 3 month horizon. I believe they still have functional issues that need to get resolved, and they are probably a number of months away from coming up with a solution to every nook and corner case that they are seeing in validation. Besides that, the theory is that Hammer is binning at very low frequencies, and something fundamental needs to be changed in the design to give it extra headroom. AMD can't likely review a Hammer that locks up on some occasions, nor can they review a Hammer that clocks at 1.5GHz. It's simply farther out, and even AMD's current projection of a late Q1 "introduction" confirms that. Your point is a good one, but I don't think we can infer disaster based on no Hammer paper launch.
These points are exactly my points. What we can infer is that there isn't a Hammer that is anywhere's near production worthy and another slip is very likely. Also, AMD's promise of industry leading performance was based on where they expected Intel to be 6 months or more ago when the original claim was made and based on the Hammer release schedule in effect at that time. I believe the claim is no longer valid but what is AMD going to say now? Please wait for mediocre performance?
EP
Yeah ... INTC will get a "penalty" for "celebrating in the end zone". <ggg>
Jerry has been spiking AMD shareholders in the "endzone" for a long time...
I can get $1 for a Janurary $5 put. This very tempting.
EP
Intentional Grounding
Good one!
How about illegal receiver downfield?
Is Intel guilty of spiking the ball?
If this doesn't work ... Maybe will look to the "referees" for
an "interference" call ??!! <ggg>
I think they will claim a personal foul, or unsportsman like conduct...
EP
All this begs the question, if AMD is perfectly willing to do vapor launches, why not vapor launch Hammer? I think the obvious answer is that #1 Hammer is further away from being ready than AMD is willing to admit and #2 AMD would have to provide samples for benchmarking. That would mean letting the world know that Hammer performance does not live up to the hype. Seeing as AMD has nothing to keep suckers on the line except hype, they would essentially be killing any hope they have.
EP
AMD going to zoom on this good news.
Maybe, but anyone who has followed this knows that Dell always repeats the same thing. They say they are looking at other technology. They are always considering alternatives to Intel and AMD fans always get all excited only to have their hopes dashed. I've seen this rumor too many times to get excited.
EP
Anybody here understand the Apple/Motorola G4 versus Intel deal? Like, I have a 800mhz chip (I think) in this imac. But it is apparently the equivalent of a 2.4 Ghz Intel chip. I think it has something to do with being 192-bit data channels versus 32 bit channels. This has always confused the heck out of me. Anybody know what I'm talking aabout?
One must ask themselves if the G4 is the equivilant of a 2.4GHz P4, then what is meant by equivilant? Who says? The only benchmarks I am aware of that are published by practically all system vendors are SPEC benchmarks.
http://www.spec.org/osg/cpu2000/results/cpu2000.html
The PPC chip produced by IBM, Motorola does not publish industry standard benchmarks, is not competitive with the P4 in integer performance, even the most highend version with 128MB of L3. For FP the POWER architecture is competitive on the very highend but at are very high price. In short, Apple's claim is based on a very selective benchmark and not a valid comparison.
EP
Are you still holding on to this "position" ??!! Be aware ... AMD could fall below $5.00/share. Worst on this stock hasn't even come out yet. I suspect further delays on their processors ... AMD could well get "Hammered". <ggg>
I am firmly convinced that Intel's upcoming release of the 3.06GHz P4 will outperform the eventual Hammer. So AMD's promises of the highest performing processor in the world will be destroyed many months before the next inevitable Hammer slip.
What's holding this dog above $5?
EP
No one quits because they did a great job and made the company a bunch of money. Meretsky likely screwed up. Criticism and arguement resulted. He was given the option of "moving on to better things". Likely a lot of dissappointment at AMD over Hammer slippage. Mr. Ruiz doesn't want to hear abour screw ups. It's life and death there right now.
All possible but there's another possibility as well. Mr Meretsky did an excellent job but just got fed up watching AMD lying to their customers and shareholders for so long. Remember Jerry's "Best yields in the World" claim and the constant insistence that Hammer was on schedule and the best performer in the world? If those weren't lies I don't know what is. Who could feel good about being a part of that?
EP
People who remember are wondering if this is a start of a new trend
People who remember (obviously not the author of that article) know that this IS the trend.
The chances of a successful law suit by AMD are pretty low.
And expensive plus who knows what Intel would do with a countersuit?
EP
Suppose Meretsky was let go because he messed up? Failed to perform. Based on the delays who says he was that talented in the first place.
Sure it's possible. Maybe even likely?
EP
No, I'm not talking about that kind of lawsuit, I'm talking about the significant amounts of confidential information in his head and it would be too risky for Intel to hire him. It is much cheaper to file a lawsuit, threaten to file, or just press release about how that mean old Intel has stolen your really smart person with really important information in his head. I'm not saying Intel would lose a lawsuit, but it's probably not worth the aggravation.
Such concerns didn't stop AMD from hiring (and them firing) Vhin Dham.
EP
Welcome B2L
EP
Re: ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES (AMD) Fellow Wayne Meretsky has left the company, an AMD spokesman confirmed Friday. Meretsky was a driving force behind AMD's efforts to promote its forthcoming Opteron server chip.
While I don't have any inside info, it just seems that nobody get's fired anymore, they just leave for "personal reasons".
Even if I'm wrong, AMD has got to be in a desperate situation trying to keep talent. How long can they keep driving their people at a feverish pace, only to suffer disappointment after disappointment. It's got to be terribly frustrating to those who realized long ago that Jerry's eyes were bigger than his stomach, so to speak. WIth Hammer floundering continuously and their Fab in total disaray, there's nobody to roll off onto followon products. They have burned the candle on both ends for too long and they are running out of candle.
EP
There are now more Itaniums offered for sale on Pricewatch than all AMD vaporware above 2200+ combined. Next week AMD will "cut loose" a couple more phantoms processors, the 2700+ and the 2800+.
EP
There is no doubt that AMD has a successful microarchitecture with Hammer
No doubt, unfortunately for AMD, customers by products, not microarchitectures. AMD has not been very realistic when it comes to designing within their ability to manufacture. I'm sure Intel could define phenomenal microarchitectures as well if they didn't care about actually producing them.
EP
WSJ: No Deal In Intergraph, Intel Patent Suit >INTC INGR
In other words, you believe Broadcom will go bankrupt. Is that supposed to be bad news for Intel?
Doesn't Broadcom own Serverworks, and doesn't Intel depend on Serverworks for some highend chipsets?
EP
Without any clarification, this statement is kind of meaningless. Could you give some examples of problems caused by running bulk Si and SOI on the same production line?
There probably aren't any examples because nobody's pulled it off yet.
BTW, nice to see you've changes your alias to something more reasonable.
EP
Thread -
Dell has released SPEC scores for the 2.8GHz P4. In what is somewhat of a milestone, Dell's version produces the first SPECint score exceeding 1000 for any processor ever made. I usually quote base numbers but in this case the SPECint peak is 1010.
http://www.spec.org/osg/cpu2000/results/cpu2000.html
EP
http://www.electronicstimes.com/tech/news/OEG20020925S0048
IBM unveils server line using new Xeon chip
By Bruce Gain
EBN
26 September 2002 (1:08 p.m. GMT)
IBM's introduced a new line of thin blade servers yesterday using Intel's Xeon processors, marking a shift away from the lower-performing Pentium 3.
IBM said its server architecture is two times denser, compared to normal Intel Xeon processor-based servers and can hold 84 blades per rack -- more than 36 blades per rack than the competing HP ProLiant BL20p system.
According to IBM, the server line costs up to 23% less than a competing HP blade server configured with an Intel Pentium 3 processor.
While IBM has high hopes for its new blade server line, the design win for Intel mirrors the wide applicability of Intel's Xeon line, analysts said.
"Xeon is Intel's chip of the year for servers, and now that Intel has introduced a faster Xeon with bigger caches, OEMs are looking to use it to add more to their servers," said Nathan Brookwood, an analyst with Insight64, Saratoga, Calif.
For example, Brookwood said an Intel executive told him that Xeon would represent "50% of all server chips shipped by Intel by the fourth quarter." In addition to IBM and start up RLX Technologies Inc., which already ships thin blade servers, Dell and Sun plan to enter the market this year.
AMD "paper launches" don't slice salami
Two month availability not too good
By Mike Magee: Thursday 26 September 2002, 10:18
DISTRIBUTORS OF AMD'S latest products 2400+ and 2600+ products are still waiting for supplies in Europe, while retailers are forecasting "long lead times" for the chips, launched over a month ago now.
And sources close to the distributors tell the INQUIRER that they haven't even received samples of the expected 2800+ and 2700+ Athlon XPs. But they have samples of the hyperthreading 3.06GHz Pentium 4, we're reliably informed.
AMD introduced the 2400+ and 2600+ Athlon XPs on the 21st of August.
Or perhaps we should say paper launched the products, because although Her Majesty's Press had samples to review on that date, it's only a few OEMs who have product in the pipeline, it appears.
When Intel launched its "Coppermine" processors a few years ago, it issued press releases and supplied reviewers with processors, but just a few days after the launch, it told its distributors and resellers that the products wouldn't be available for months.
One reader, Dave Gallo, said: "AMD may as well launch a 10,000+ as far as I can tell. I need to purchase a new processor and have been trying to find any “Thoroughbred “B”” processors and have been told none are available even though they were “launched” over a month ago. This is a joke and you as the press is letting AMD get away with it, acting like 2400+ and 2600+ actually exist, they don’t."[my note: This same press will trumpet the non existant 2800+ when AMD releases more vapor in early October]
A quick trip over to UK firm Dabs, here, lists the 2400+ and the 2600+ as having "long lead times".
It's no better at Komplett. While the products are listed on its Web site, the availability date for both is now given as the 31st of October – that'd be two months after launch.
A German site, here, does seem to be offering the CPUs for sale.
And the situation in the US appears to be equally dire for supply -- Pricewatch doesn't list the processors yet. It lists stocks of Intel's most recent Pentium 4 as available, the 2.8GHz processor, which it says will ship the same day.
So how soon will 2800+ and 2700+ 333MHz front side bus (FSB) processors actually be for sale, rather than just exist in reviewer machines or on a press release? One OEM tells the INQUIRER today that he's unlikely to have samples of the new chips until around the time the Intel Pentium 3.06GHz launches.
This is surely not good news for AMD. We've contacted the firm for a statement and hope to have its response later in the day. µ
* JUST A NOTE The INQUIRER does not allow its full time staff to buy and sell shares in firms we write about.
Welcome on board!
EP
Intel now has 5 pages of 2.8GHz P4s on pricewatch.
EP
Agreed, and guess who's doing the baby sitting. Like I said, there's probably some pretty miserable P.E.'s over there.... Been There, Done That, Hated It. Thankfully I don't need to do that anymore......
As you know, I'm not a process guy but I assume it's like running continuous skew runs. Is it the litho guys who bear the brunt of it? It's basically ultra tight control of channel lengths isn't it?
EP
That assumes you're getting any 3000+ off the line. If you are optimizing your line for speed, instead of hitting within the process window, then there's a certain point that the Yields fall off drastically. If you are already pusing your Process way past it's designed Process Parameters, as I suspect AMD has been doing for awhile, then you will eventually end up with no yield at all. I bet there are some pretty miserable P.E.'s at AMD.
With AMD's process sweetspot likely producing material too slow to sell, their only choice has been to run on the ragged edge. Witness the remarkably low output of their fab compared to it's potential with a die the size of Athlon. Also as we reported a year ago, their use of .13u transistors left them virtually no headroom, which is exactly what we predicted and exactly what came to pass. So AMD may be able to babysit their fab lines and make a couple of highspeed samples but they clearly can't manufacture them.
EP
I have always believed that the SI Intel thread before TC, PE and El and others started being picked on, was much better than any other sources, combined.
I don't know who EI is but being picked on wasn't a problem on SI. Ignore worked just fine. The problem was that Jeff the admin decided to do a purge and his standards were about as fair as the Maniban.
EP
AMD doesn't seem to be able to keep up. Why don't they just cherry pick a few chips and introduce 3000+? Paper yes, but that's about all they ship at the high end these days.
Well because there aren't any, cherry picked or not. Have you looked at pricewatch? There aren't even any 2400+s. The 2400+ & 2600+ announcements came just days before Intel shipped 2.8GHz P4s in volume and the upcoming 2800+ is just as nonexistant.
Maybe you're saying that as long as AMD can't deliver, they might as well not deliver 3000+ as 2800+. So why not vapor launch Hammer? The only reason I can see is that they'd had to at least give some reviewers samples and then the world would find out how badly Hammer performs and AMD can't afford to do that.
EP
There is also growing evidence that CPUs are becoming commodities and that ASPs will never return to previous levels.
Which is exactly why Intel is focusing so heavily in comms and highend servers.
EP
One could say that since AMD (I assume that is the "loser" that EP referred to) lost slightly more is share price over the last 5 years then it is the bigger loser.
I was referring more to individuals hating winning institutions. People hate Intel, Microsoft, The U.S. etc. They used to hate IBM but that's not the case so much anymore because they're not perceived as a leader. Whoever emerges as a new leader in the years to come will be hated as well, particularly by losers. It's human nature.
EP
I guess it depends on how you define winners and losers. I find it very difficult to support the position that Intel is a winner right now.
From a shareprice point of view, I guess everybody is a loser right now. From a technology perspective, I have been following this industry for 20 years and I have never seen a company this far ahead of everybody else, technology wise. That's how I am defining "winner".
EP
With the intro of Intel's 3GHz+ HT enabled P4 just around the corner, AMD will release some more vapor. Who they think is stupid enough to believe them isn't clear but hope springs eternal.
From the Inquirer:
AMD to deliver new Athlons on October 1st
333MHz FSB arrives in Athlons 2700+ and 2800+
By Paul Hales: Wednesday 25 September 2002, 14:41
AMD IS SET launch some new-flavour Athlons on October 1st, we learn.
The chipmaker will unveil its long-awaited 333MHz frontside bus in the 2700+ and 2800+ Athlon XPs, on that date, our sources tell us, pointing to a revival of the chip wars between AMD and Intel in the run-up to the pre-Christmas buying binge.
And the buying binge this year is crucial to both companies as the past two years have been sorry ones for technology companies weeping at the feet of their bank managers.
We expect also expect AMD to cut the price of its lower-grade Athlons following the launch of its new babies, possibly making the newly-introduced 2600+ the bargain chip to slip into Christmas stockings.
OEMs may not have samples of the chip until a clear week after the "launch" date, which coincides with the launch of the Nforce 2 "chipset".
We also expect a whole new round of battling over benchmarkers as thr chip companies each try to persuade a speed-obsessed public that theirs is the faster chip. µ
* MEANWHILE, we learn that 2400+ and 2600+ chips, launched some little while back, have not yet reached the distribution channel, at least here in Europe. It's unclear how many 2800+s and 2700+s will be available on the day of the release.
Apparently, there is such hatred for Intel that some will relish it if Intel drops below 10.
This is and always will be hatred for whoever is on top. It's human nature for losers to hate winners.
EP
I see, if you point out something negative about the topic stock it's a personal attack of those who blindly tout the company because they own the stock.
Who owns the stock? Have you seen anyone here say they own this stock? For all you know we're all short because we agree with you short term. Try and look out into the future and see who is best positioned to recover.
when are Intel shareholders going to admit their real situation?
When are you going to stop assuming you know our positions?
EP