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Wait'n for d'turtle to turn around.
Sleep'n at d'wheel, I can wait for d'next correction when d'London market closes.
We need about 10 million more traders to short the turtle (USD/JPY) so that I can recover from my losses.
Yen Heads for Weekly Decline Versus Dollar on BOJ Rate Outlook
By Min Zeng
May 18 (Bloomberg) -- The yen headed for its biggest weekly decline in more than a month against the dollar on speculation the Bank of Japan will avoid raising borrowing costs amid slowing growth.
Japan's currency fell to a three-month low against the dollar yesterday after a government report showed Japan's economy slowed in the first quarter and the central bank kept its benchmark interest rates at 0.5 percent, lowest among major economies. The yen has dropped against 14 out of 16 major currencies this week.
``The data just confirmed that the BOJ won't raise interest rates any time soon,'' said Mark Meadows, a currency trader at currency-trading firm Tempus Consulting Inc. in Washington. ``The yen will continue to stay weak.''
The yen traded at 121.28 per dollar and 163.70 per euro at 6:03 a.m. in Tokyo. The Japanese currency has lost 0.93 percent against the dollar so far this week, heading for the biggest weekly decline since a 1.21 percent loss for the period ended April 6. The yen touched 121.35 per dollar yesterday, the weakest since Feb. 23.
The Japanese currency has fallen 0.7 percent versus the euro this week and reached an all-time low of 163.90 per euro May 16.
The yen has dropped against 15 of 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg this year as low interest rates in Japan spurred investors to borrow the yen to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere, in a practice known as carry trade.
Dollar Gains
The dollar headed for a third week of gain against the euro as reports showing gains in jobless claims, industrial production and housing starts reduced speculation the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs this year.
The U.S. currency traded at $1.3496. It has gained 0.22 percent this week and rebounded from an all-time low of $1.3681 set April 27.
``The market has been so short the dollar, and every time you have some good data coming out of the U.S., it will push people to cut their dollar shorts,'' said Tim O'Sullivan, chief foreign exchange trader at Forex.com, a unit of online currency trading company Gain Capital in Bedminster, New Jersey. A short position is a bet on a currency's decline.
The dollar has lost 2.2 percent against the euro this year on bets growth in the world's largest economy will trail Europe's, dimming the allure of U.S. assets. Hedge funds and other short-term speculative investors built record bets on the dollar's decline against the euro last month.
Interest-Rate Futures
Traders have pared bets on an interest-rate reduction by the Fed this year. The yield on Eurodollar futures for December rose to 5.170 percent yesterday, the highest since Feb. 13, from 5.125 percent a day earlier. The contracts' value at settlement is based on the interest rate on three-month bank deposits, which is influenced by the federal funds rate target.
The Fed has kept its benchmark interest rates at 5.25 percent since its August meeting, while the European Central Bank has raised its rate seven times since November 2005, to 3.75 percent.
Japan's yen headed for a fourth week of losses against the dollar after the Cabinet Office said yesterday gross domestic product grew at an annual 2.4 percent rate in the first quarter, slowing from a revised 5 percent in the fourth. The median estimate for the recent period by economists surveyed by Bloomberg was 2.7 percent.
``The data reinforced market participants' appetite for selling the yen,'' said Derek Halpenny, a senior currency strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London. ``The justification for a rate increase anytime soon will be difficult to present to the market. This realization will likely encourage further yen selling.''
The yield advantage of 10-year U.S. Treasury notes over similar-maturity Japanese government bonds increased to 3.12 percentage points yesterday, the widest since Feb. 1, from 3.04 percentage points a day earlier. A widening yield differential increases the allure of dollar-denominated assets.
Volatility on one-month dollar-yen options fell to 6.35 percent yesterday, the lowest since Jan. 3, encouraging investors to put on carry trades since lower volatility implies smaller exchange-rate fluctuation risk.
Wait'n for d'worm to turn on my USD/JPY short, Larry, Mo and Curly are speaking....
Wed 11:00pm JPY BOJ Governor Fukui Speaks
Thu 5:30am USD Former Fed Chairman Greenspan Speaks
Thu 6:30am USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
It's only costing $25/day to carry the $1400 dollars in loss.
USD/JPY (turtle)
A veteran economist and a rookie economist are walking down the road. They come across a spoiled apple lying on the asphalt. Says the veteran economist, "If you eat it, I'll give you $20,000!"
The rookie economist runs his optimization model and figures out that he's better off eating it. He does so and collects the money.
Continuing along the same road, they almost step on a spoiled banana. The rookie economist states, "Now, if you eat that banana, I'll give you $20,000." After evaluating the proposal, the veteran economist eats the spoiled fruit, and soon collects the money.
As they continue walking, the rookie economist starts thinking and states, "Listen. We both have the same amount of money we had before, but we both ate spoiled fruit. I don't see us being better off."
Replies the veteran economist, "Well that's true, but you overlook the fact that we've just been involved in $40,000 of trade."
Last month it dropped about 60 pips over the course of four hours after the release, so I should be able to unwind with a slight profit.
I have my butterfly wings cross and 25 pips till the exit.
I can hold till the margin call @121.70.
Wait'n for a pull-back so I can unwind the pain of USD/JPY short @ 120.48.
USD/JPY short @ 120.48 - back to sleep.
close out USD/JPY long @ 120.50 - wait'n to short.
Long USD/JPY @ 120.25
Strange market trading this week, this forex gypsy only had time to enjoy one bowl of turtle soup this week and was able to walked away with a few extra gold coins in d'pocket.
"A gypsy of a strange and distant time
Travelling in panic all direction blind
Aching for the warmth of a burning sun
Freezing in the emptiness of where he'd come from..."
"Gypsy" from the album "To Our Children's Children's Children" by The Moody Blues
hold'n 10K - wait'n for it to stop trad'n sideways before fill'n d'soup bowl.
Sold 9/10's of turtle - wait'n for the worm to turn before short'n heavy.....
It's smok'n - damn flies keep slow'n d'downfall.
I've readjusted my turtle pips for 118.60, so we can both cross the finish line at the same time.
I am only look'n for 60 pips, with my luck it's going to break to the upside tonight...
Your fly keeps dancing in my turtle soup (short USD/JPY - 120.01)
I've a fly in my turtle soup, that's causing your toad to jump.
I'm join'n your short Turtle play.
Yes, no turtle soup last night - I'm holding my bowl out for the special.
Ordering long-neck Turtle Soup @ 119.60
U.S. Monetary Authorities Did Not Intervene in FX Market during the First Quarter
May 3, 2007
NEW YORK — The U.S. monetary authorities did not intervene in the foreign exchange markets during the January—March quarter, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said today in its quarterly report to the U.S. Congress.
During the three months that ended March 31, 2007, the dollar depreciated 1.0 percent against the yen and 1.2 percent against the euro. In this period, the dollar’s trade-weighted exchange value decreased 1.1 percent as measured by the Federal Reserve Board’s major currencies index.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/markets/2007/fx070503.html
Rival Royal warns of violence
By Angela Charlton
ASSOCIATED PRESS
12:17 p.m. May 4, 2007
PARIS – Nicolas Sarkozy, who would warm up relations with the United States and prod the French to work more, was favored to win presidential elections Sunday – and to dash Socialist Segolene Royal's hopes at becoming France's first woman president.
Despite Royal's fierce final blows Friday, all final polls suggested that Sarkozy will win Sunday's runoff and take over this restless, troubled nuclear power from the aging Jacques Chirac.
If the polls prove right, France would have a president friendly toward the United States but not servile, who gladly shook President Bush's hand but wants a deadline on pulling out of Iraq and wouldn't favor war against Iran.
As president, Sarkozy says he would loosen labor laws to make the stagnant economy more competitive worldwide – a formula that risks street protests by a populace deeply attached to its generous social protections. He promises to cut taxes, but also assert the state's interest in industrial giants.
Sarkozy would be the first child of an immigrant in the Elysee Palace – his father fled Hungary's communists after World War II – but would close France's doors to many immigrants.
He would also crack down on teen criminals and repeat offenders. Sarkozy's fierce language toward delinquents when he was interior minister helped make him enemy No. 1 among black and Arab youth in the down-and-out housing projects that erupted in riots in 2005, an explosion of anger over discrimination, joblessness and poverty.
Sarkozy and Royal offer starkly different solutions for France's woes. Royal, still combative and determined despite the polls, sought to portray Sarkozy as too unstable and too brutal to lead the nation. She let out all the stops Friday – the last day she was allowed to speak publicly before Sunday's voting.
“The choice of Nicolas Sarkozy is a dangerous choice, I do not want France to be oriented toward a system of brutality,” Royal said on RTL radio.
She said she felt a “responsibility to raise the alert about the risks of this candidacy and the violence and brutality that will be set off in the country. Everyone knows it, but no one says it. It is a kind of taboo.”
Later Friday, she said if Sarkozy is elected, “democracy will be threatened.” During a campaign stop in Rosporden, in northwestern France, she noted a security helicopter passing ahead and said: “They're watching us.” Earlier this week, she even raised the prospect of “civil war.”
Police are keeping watch for possible unrest in poor, immigrant-heavy neighborhoods if Sarkozy is elected. Community associations say they fear an outbreak of anti-Sarkozy violence, such as car burnings like those that marked the riots, on election night.
In an interview with the daily Le Parisien published Friday, Royal said Sarkozy has “the same neo-conservative ideology” as Bush. She said, “He mimics the American president's technique of compassionate conservatism,” which she described as pretending to care but failing to act when people are suffering.
Sarkozy has openly praised many things about the United States. Still, Sarkozy calls the Iraq war “a historic error” and suggests import taxes on countries, such as the United States, that don't respect the Kyoto accords on global warming.
Sarkozy gently mocked Royal for being glum Friday and called her Bush comments “extreme.” Sarkozy's camp says Royal's ideas are fuzzy and that she does not have enough experience.
“She is not in a good mood this morning, it must be the polls,” he said on Europe-1 radio. Clearly confident, Sarkozy did not predict Sunday's outcome, but said: “I am waiting serenely for the French people's choice.”
Three polls published Friday suggested that Sarkozy strengthened the lead he has commanded for months, giving him a winning margin of between six and nine percentage points. The solid figures for Sarkozy suggested he emerged the victor from the candidates' much-watched televised debate Wednesday, their only face-to-face encounter in the campaign.
On Friday, Royal shrugged off her low poll numbers, noting that some voters were still undecided.
“There is still hope,” Royal said during a final campaign tour in Lorient in western France. “It's up to you to decide, not the polls,” she said in an appeal to voters.
At midnight Friday, the candidates and polling agencies must fall silent, to give voters a day of reflection before election booths open Sunday morning.
A poll taken Thursday by CSA-Cisco said Sarkozy had 53 percent to Royal's 47 percent. TNS-Sofres had Sarkozy at 54.5 percent and Royal at 45.5 percent after a survey Thursday. Another sounding, by Ipsos on Wednesday and Thursday, showed Sarkozy at 54 percent and Royal at 46 percent.
All three polls were conducted by telephone among pools of 1,000 to 1,400 people. The margin of error for all three would be about three percentage points.
Don't bet against the Nija Turtles - when Japan and China are closed for their Golden Week holidays!
China, Japan, South Korea to pool forex reserves
Bloomberg / New Delhi May 05, 2007
China, Japan and South Korea have agreed to pool part of their foreign exchange reserves to prevent a repeat of the crisis that depleted Asia’s holdings 10 years ago.
Finance ministers from the three countries will join 10 finance ministers from Southeast Asia in Kyoto tomorrow to discuss combining some of the region’s foreign reserves, estimated at $2.7 trillion, in an effort to help central banks shield their currencies from unwelcome outflows of money.
Things are at a very early stage and the details haven't been set such as when and how the joint reserves of participating countries will be managed, South Korea’s finance minister Kwon Okyu told reporters after today’s meeting.
The current arrangement, introduced in 2000, only allows for country-to-country currency swaps.
Pooling the reserves would allow the region's governments, stung by conditions attached to loan packages by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) during the 1997-98 financial crisis, to reduce reliance on the Washington-based agency.
“You can't expect these things to explode overnight,” said Robert Subbaraman, chief economist at Lehman Brothers Asia in Hong Kong adding that it will take time for the Asian nations to consolidate a regional financial system.
The unsuccessful defence of their plunging exchange rates a decade ago depleted the reserves of Indonesia, Thailand and South Korea, and prompted them to turn to the IMF to shore up their finances.
The IMF arranged over $100 billion of loans to the three Asian countries during the crisis after their currencies collapsed. In return, governments were forced to cut spending, raise interest rates and sell state-owned companies.
Critics said the policies deepened the region’s recession, as higher borrowing costs hurt businesses and crimped domestic consumption. The IMF, in a 1999 assessment of its handling of the crisis, said it 'badly misgauged' the severity of the collapse and acknowledged its fiscal prescriptions for the three countries were too harsh.
The IMF's debtors couldn't wait to free themselves from the dictates as all three settled arrears years ahead of schedule. The fund prescribed Thailand the 'wrong medicine', former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said and asked citizens to fly the national flag on offices, homes and factories when it made the last of its payments in 2003.
After clearing loans from the fund in October, Indonesia’s central bank governor Burhanuddin Abdullah said the country was no longer a sick member of the IMF. South Korea’s last installment payment of $140 million in August 2001 was accompanied by comments from a government spokesman that it had retaken economic sovereignty and no longer needed prior consultations with the fund.
The region’s holdings of foreign reserves have since swelled. China’s foreign-currency holdings grew by $1 million a minute in the first quarter to $1.2 trillion, the most in the world. Japan’s foreign exchange reserves have doubled since 2000 to $887.98 billion in March. South Korea’s reserves are now the world’s fifth-largest, surging to $244 billion from $7 billion in November 1997.
The three countries will also help aid the development of an Asian bond market, which would allow governments tap the region’s $1.5 trillion of savings to find projects to build roads and power stations and improve sewage systems.
“We believe this collective work will facilitate the diversification of issuers and types of local currency-denominated bonds and this contribute to the deepening of local bond markets,” today's statement said.
At present Asia’s reserves are invested in the US bond market with investors from Japan, China, Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong owning a combined $1.2 trillion of treasuries.
The Japanese finance minister Koji Omi said the meeting between the three nations, today on the sidelines of the annual gathering of the ADB reached a consensus that that both Asian and global economies are solid now, but that they will watch out for potential risks to growth including the US housing market and oil prices.
d'Red Sea is clos'n and all of Jester's Turtles are alive and well and sleep'n for d'weekend.
JPY is at or near a high
Thu, 03 May 2007 20:55:22 GMT
by John Gajewski
The Chart Manager
Current: 120.35; Range today: 119.60/120.60
"Dollar/Yen extended the rally to 120.40 but as the range on the day was much narrower than previous days, it is a warning that a top is developing. Expect a few points higher today before Dollar/Yen attempts a reversal. A break of 119.40 will suggest that a high is in place and allow a drop back to 117.60. Such a move will also suggest that the corrective rally from 115.15 is complete. On a break of 117.60 Dollar/Yen should fall back to 115.15 and then continue towards 108.95. << typo ??? >> Only a rise through 121.10 will suggest that a longer-term rally is developing."
http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/currency-tracker/2007-05-03.html
Gonna have to part a shit load of water so that that Jester's turtles can cross the Red Sea.
Trainwreck is running with a full head of Steam!
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=7859
Looks like I'm next to last in the soup line.
I have not been tracking the Trainwreck for a couple of years.
I'm over on the I-HUB Forex board - Luggy and DougQ are on a few other IHub boards.
Thanks
Agree,
Fibonacci retracement chart (USD/JPY) May 1st
A. 119.07
B. 120.46
C. 119.40
D. 121.32
Fibonacci retracement chart (USD/JPY) April 26th
A. 118.60
B. 120.46
C. 119.05
D. 121.60
Short to C, and go Long to D.
Adjusting short to 119.40, and placing a limit long order for 119.40 with a profit of 121.30.
The only way I can agree with both of you, is by flip'n the Fibonacci retracement chart upside down and creating a bear trap.
A. 119.07
B. 120.27
C. 119.36
D. 121.0
Short to C, and go Long to D.
Adjusting short to 119.44, and placing a limit long order for 119.40 with a profit of 121.0
Looks more like it will trend sideways between 120.0 and 120.25 and break to the upside after the news. IMHO
Dump'd USD/JPY (short) $300K and book'd loss of $300.
Hold'n USD/JPY (short) $200K - will wait for a London unload.
Stuck in d'mud on an USD/JPY short - down $800 dollars