Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
ziggy0304
Sorry about that.
What I meant to say was go to post # 4
and there you will find the administrator of the Investorshub boards.
His name is Matt
click on his name and send him a private message
hope this helps.
chris
ziggy0304
follow this link
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=3422171
chris
LanaTaylor
I hate to say it but I wasn’t really that impressed with GE’s performance today.
Yes it ended up +.16 but I was expecting at a minimum 32.10.
So here’s hoping it can at least take that out tomorrow.
chris
GE has been moving up most of the day
+.20
Dimension/airedale88
Think that I can do this just need a day or two. Kind of busy right now.
chris
xe2dy
This should be an intra day 30 min, 30 day chart of the Q's
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=qqq,uu[h,a]faclyyay[d20][p][vc60][iua12,26,9!lp14,3,3][j....
While this chart will post I am not sure if it will update without hitting the refresh button on your browser.
Your problem is that you are trying to post the chart while you are signed into Stockchart.com.
You have to sign out before posting the link.
chris
I am under the impression that GE fell too far too fast.
Support can be found at Friday's closing price. Stronger support in the 31.30 area.
Therefore I am expecting a bounce for GE this week.
First off let me make it clear this is useless information and ema’s are lagging indicators
However for GE the 40wk cycle is getting close to crossing the 80wk cycle.
This is one of my cycle charts for GE. It shows only the cycles and not the closing price.
EMA’s run to the longest day; i.e. 20wk cycle would be 112 days.
On 17 May 04 GE closed at 29.97 the 40wk ema was at 30.40 the 80wk ema was at 30.79
2 Jul 04 GE closed at 31.67 the 40wk ema was at 30.73 the 80 wk ema was at 30.91
17 May – 2 Jul is 32 trading days. In the previous 32 trading days the 40wk ema gained .33 while the 80wk gained .12
adding .33 to the 40wk ema 30.73+.33=31.06
adding .12 to the 80wk ema 30.91+.12=31.03
2 Jul + 32 trading days make it 18 Aug or thereabouts for the cross.
By the way: GE topped out 28 Aug 00 wouldn't it be something for the first 80wk cycle to bottom out on the same day? Or since the 28th is a Saturday how about the day before?
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=23977&u=chris3403&a=chris3403%5C%27charts&....
Best of luck to all
chris
By the way how are all these sponsored links getting in these messages?
airedale88
Sorry that it has taken so long to get back to you.
I was talking about a daily chart. Not a weekly or monthly.
Since that post GE has fallen below the trend line.
I made up a quick chart so that you could see.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=23975&u=chris3403&a=chris3403%5C%27charts&...
chris
I have no ideal whatsoever as how a sponsored link appeared in message # 1100. When I tried to repeat the word in this message once again the sponsored link appeared.
chris
mr_cash4
You can see by the time how far behind I am.
lol
No problem on the cycle for GE I appreciate every post you and airedale88 make and have saved many of them going back 3 years.
About the NDX why not 1554?
chris
airedale88
I did not take the MACD into consideration when I made that post.
I was talking about drawing a trendline of closing prices.
Unless you are talking intra day prices I feel your targets are too low. Even at that I just cant see anything below high 29's.
chris
Lana
I’m not the cycle pro person.
That honor goes to mr_cash4 and airedale88.
All I am is a chartist and I like to think I can hold my own with the best of them.
For GE only I think the earliest would be 29 Jul and the latest would be 2 Sep I do have 24 Aug with a circle around it.
I believe GE will report earnings 9 Jul. I am expecting a runup to earnings.
Best to you and everyone else.
chris
I’m not predicating it but this could be a huge day.
For the Dow draw a line off of the 14 Jan 00 closing high and connect 21 May 01 if the Dow closes above 10,500 today it will have closed above the bear market resistance line.
Intra day high for the Dow Wed was 10,471.24 so it is within reach.
Draw the same line for the DIA’s and if they close above 105.25 it will also be over the same line. Intra day high Wed was 104.89 so it too is within reach.
Both the DIA's and the DOW have closed above this line on two prior occassions
Dimension
doesn't matter where one calls the cycle low for the Q's at 37.56 and new intra day and cycle high
chris
airedale88
I'm very worried about GE.
The monthly MACD crossed to the downside today however the close is right on the trend line drawn off of the Feb and Nov 03 low's.
Any close for 3 days in a row below 32.30 would imply the top is in.
Thanks for your posts.
chris
Dimension I have corrected my charts to reflect what Scottrade.com has (37.47 high for today and 37.52 for yesterday) not Stockcharts.com. I took the info from Yahoo.
About those blips though usually they really do take place and it is trading not available to the public.
So if the Q's bottomed in March then yesterday's intra day high 37.52 did take out the March high but neither today or yesterday's close did.
Thanks for pointing the blip out.
chris
Anybody following the Q's here?
They put in a cycle intra day high and almost took out the LT closing high.
It appears that the NDX, DIA's and COMPQ were also showing strength today.
chris
airedale88
In a short 20 wk cycle (for GE 86-87 days) I have never seen the high come so late into the cycle. Last Wednesday (current high) was day 62.
The high off of the Feb 03 low which for GE was a long cycle came on the 84th day.
Shorter cycles the highest high has ranged from 34-46 days so this cycle appears to be running long not short.
Thanks for the reply
chris
mr_cash4&airedale88
Something is wrong with the cycle for GE!
mr_cash4 are you using 10 May or 17 May for the 80wk cycle low for GE?
If the 17th then today was only day 28 and wouldn’t that make today a 5wk bottom?
airedale88 I know what you think the cycle is but this is my question to you. Are you sure that 17 May could not have been the 7.5wk cycle low (37days) and 10 Jun (54 days) the 10wk low?
This Russell and S&P500 re balance has everything screwed up.
jmo
chris
mr_cash4
For what's its worth
at 4:00 sharp GE was at 32.88 the intra day was 32.86 GE volume was 38,282,000 and the $INDU was down -31
at 4:08 they closed GE at 32.18 also the intra day low on 74 million in volume and the $INDU was -71
final volume was 90 million which I believe was a one day record.
It had something to do with the re balance of the Russell 2000
chris
On 6/23/04 the Dow tested the bear market resistance line drawn from the 14 Jan 00 high and connecting the 5/21/01 high and appears to be resting on support provided by the Aug 03 20wk low and the Sep 03 10wk low. I’m having a problem trying to reproduce the chart with the lines drawn on it.
On the same date GE tested the trend line drawn off of the 10/09/02 bottom and connecting the 7/17/03 20wk bottom and appears to be resting on support provided by the trend line drawn off of the 2/13/03 20wk bottom and connecting the 11/17/03 20 wk bottom. Once again I am having problems reproducing the chart with the trend lines drawn in the correct places.
One should anticipate a big movement this week. One of those trend lines is going to give way.
Thanks Chuck, email was sent and I've been cleared for 18.
chris
airedale88
Thank you very much for the detail that you put into this post. I also wish to thank mr_cash4 for his analysis.
Today is day 63 from the 24 Mar major low.
My thinking is that for this cycle GE will run long 105-106 versus 86-87 days. If true that would put the next major low for GE 8/24-8/25.
Again I wish to thank both of you guys for your help.
Now how do I get verification?
Unverified Free accounts are allowed a maximum of 3 posts per day.
Verification raises the limit to 18.
chris
mr_cash4
I am privileged to have as one of my closest friends a former VP of GE Consumer Finance.
When I realized that GE had made a significant bottom in Oct 02 and using my own methods I tried to ascertain when GE would make it back to 60 I came to the conclusion that it would be sometime between 2008-2010 afterwards the CEO of GE announced that GE was in for some tough times in 2003 and 2004 before returning to double digit growth in 2005 I then asked my above mentioned friend to compute using the P/E and bare minimum 10% growth when he felt that GE would make it back to 60 and he arrived at the time period between 2010-2012.
So there you have it 2008-2012 for GE to make it back to 60 and the worry about a Double Top or a higher high? Kind of fits with what you just mentioned doesn’t it?
Thanks for the cycle analysis on GE. While you raise valid points so does airedale88 and I remain undecided on when the most recent 80 week cycle low was made.
chris
one last post before turning in.
GE goes x-div on the open
chris
mr_cash4 & airedale88
first mr_cash can't speak for the DOW can speak for GE.
GE employees knew last year that this year was going to be flat. GE employees were also told that starting next year would be the year that GE would once again return to double digit growth.
There is no way in the world that this year GE returns to it's previous top at 60. Might reach 38 or so. Not likely to hit 60 in 2005 or 2006 might hit it in 2007. Too far out to worry about it now.
airedale88
Here is my problem
the cycle high for the first left translated high was 31.62 coming 12 days after the mar 24 bottom. 31.68 was taken out on 6/07 14 days after the whatever bottom on 5/17 this would be right translated correct? Since that high GE has made 7 different closing higher highs. Since the rebalancing of index funds GE has still made 3 more higher highs.
Something is wrong with the cycle picture.
Questions I have answers I don't
As always best to you airedale88
chris
airedale thanks for the info
questions I have answers I don't.
on Jun 6 RB GE board made a post where I suggested the targets could be 33.85-35.45.
anyways thinking this cycle is going to be one of those that run 105-106 days
so therefore could 5/17 (37 days) be the 7-7.5 low and 6/10 (54 days)the 10wk low? I know you have said one can't just count days
but like I said questions I have answers I don't.
once again
thanks
chris
and another thing that keeps bothering me is this
in a bull market shouldn't cycle highs be higher than the previous highs? if so the Jan closing high for ge was 34.19 and the intra day high was 34.57
frankp3 If I'm reading your post right and drawing the same line or attempting to GE broke that line 6 days ago and with today's action appears to have entered a still higher channel.
I'm expecting about 5 to no more than 10 days of further up.
jmo
chris
GE one of the Generals is not selling off and is moving upward with above average volume.
As previously noted anticipating the Jan high (not the 5 or 10 wk cycle high)or higher. 34.57 - 35.35
Goal may not be obtained because of the lateness of the cycle and the fact that only now is it starting to reach the over bought area.
Happy trading to all
jmo
chris
airedale88
I am on vacation in Florida and don't have my best charts with me.
The only thing that makes sense to me is GE will attempt to challenge the Jan highs.
Good luck and happy trading.
chris
chart test
another test
www.ttrader.com/mycharts/charts/chris3403/Houstonwehaveaproblem2.gif
once again a test
the last test
Just a chart test
airedale88
It is common knowledge that most of the indexes make significant lows on the same dates and as you have pointed out it is the amplitude of the waves that have the tendencies to create the problems as to if it is a 5 wk low versus a 10wk low versus a 20wk low. As an example was 1363.49 on 11/20/03 for the NDX the 20wk low or was 1388.96 on 12/10/03 or even the higher low 1400.00 on 12/17/03 the 20wk low? For the NDX logic would say 1363.49 was the low yet the greater amplitude wave came off of 1400.00 so in reality that would have had to of been the 20wk low right? Same thing with GE was 2/13/03 the actual 20wk low or was 3/11/03 when once again the following greater amplitude wave came?
It’s my understanding that you do not like to use charts like I am about to present with closing prices and trend lines drawn on them and prefer to use barchart.com with the fld’s.
However what I have attempted to do is draw trend lines using common dates as much as possible.
Yellow line on all charts runs from 10/09/02 and hits 8/05-06/04 except for GE which runs from 10/09/02 and hits 7/17/03, 7/24/03 and slightly below 8/06/04
The light blue line runs off of 3/10-11/03 and connects 11/17or21/03 on all charts with the exception of GE where it runs off of 2/13/03 and both the NDX and the COMPQ where it connects with 12/17or20/03 and the Q’s where it appears to hit all 4 of the dates!
The green line for all charts runs off of 3/10/03 and hits 3/24/04 except for GE where it runs off of 2/13/03.
The red line is where I perceive resistance to be at and has it been broken? As of Thursday’s close everything is above resistance except for the $SPX and the COMPQ.
With GE I have added one additional line that connects 3/11/03 and 11/17/03.
Also notice how GE appears to be trapped between two significant trend lines.
One reason that both the $Spx and the COMPQ failed to take out resistance may be because of the additional resistance provided by the trend lines.
Not sure if the charts will appear so I have provided a link to each.
Really strange that only the NDX chart can be seen.
Now they should all be there
Nope none are now being shown
lol
chris
GE
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=23208&u=chris3403&a=chris3403'charts&id=45....
QQQ
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=23209&u=chris3403&a=chris3403'charts&id=45....
DIA’s
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=23210&u=chris3403&a=chris3403'charts&id=45....
INDU
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=23211&u=chris3403&a=chris3403'charts&id=45....
NDX
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=23212&u=chris3403&a=chris3403'charts&id=45....
SPX
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=23213&u=chris3403&a=chris3403'charts&id=45....
COMPQ
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=23214&u=chris3403&a=chris3403'charts&id=45....
airedale88
yes I posted a ge chart and it showed as a ge chart now I see that it isn't.
yes I clicked on both charts, then hit properties, selected all, clicked again and hit copied.
very strange that one has changed and one hasn't.
I have no clue.
chris
airedale88
This should be your S&P500 chart
chris
airedale88
This should be your S&P 500 chart
chris
try the next message instead
lol
this one didn't work
and I love having the ability to correct ones' mistakes
airedale88
Thank you very much for your in-depth analysis. The markets are currently waiting to see what Mr. Greenspan has to say.
My greatest concern is that from both a time and price range the possibility exists as the following chart shows that GE may be putting in a Double Top.
4/12/04 31.62 close, 6/07/04 31.68 close
Hopefully for the longs this resistance will be broken this week.
chris
airedale88
I was wanting to keep some secrets for my own usage (lol) but since you brought it out with GE doing 18wk cycles instead of 20wk cycles this is what I have found out.
Let’s go back to 5/10/02 when most everything bottomed at the same time.
For GE only from that forward to 10/09/02 when once again most everything bottomed together was 105 days.
From 10/09/02 -- 02/13/03 87 days
02/13/03 – 07/17/03 106 days
07/17/03 – 11/17/03 86 days
11/17/03 – 03/24/04 87 days
So it seems GE is either running 86-87 days or 105-106 days on its major bottoms.
chris
mr_cash4
What I have observed with GE is that for most of it's major cycles it will bottom ahead of the $SPX and the $INDU and then it waits on them to bottom before it can really move up.
these are the dates for what you call the 20wk cycle
2/10/03 intra day low 21.30
7/14/03 intra day low 26.90
11/17/03 intra day low 27.37
3/24/04 intra day low 28.88
5/10/04 intra day low 29.55 6wk bottom?
5/17/04 intra day low 29.68 7wk bottom?
anyways I think GE belongs in Group2 not Group1
chris
With all due respect to the cycle pro guys.
And only for GE and the NDX and not the other indexes
3/24/04 28.88 for the intra day low and the close 29.18
5/17/04 29.68 for the intra day low and the close 29.97
3/24 looks like the 20wk bottom and 5/17 the 7-7.5 wk bottom. (37 days)
3/24/04 1368.08 intra day low and 1381.86 for the close however the previous day close was 1370.04 more in line with the next day intra day low.
5/17/04 1372.46 intra day low and the close 1379.90 this was not a lower intra day lower low and looks more like a double bottom confirmation of the 3/24/04 20wk bottom.
jmo
chris