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Gee, Oman,
ur joining the guru club now?, ur changing ur target from 1000 to 1200 LOL
2bit
Den,
You got me thinking...the followings are my observations
(1) it is a bearish upward sloping channel, so it has to come down at some point
(2) a turtlesoup sell indicator was out on July 16...therefore within 3-4 days it will come down
(3) for every change in direction it has to break out of a channel
(4) before they break out they all exhibit a 1-2-3 buy/sell pattern, therefore one would assume they repeat the same thing perhaps touching 960ish where the previous head was and don't expect it to fall just out of channel
(5) funds keep piling in according to AD issues, so don't expect too much of a retrace even if it falls out of channel
(6) It is not inconceivable that it will consolidate around the head and finally push it through
(7) never say never, H&S is still possible, but right now it is injected with a dose of Diprivan
2bit
Pull back has started but don't expect a whole lot yet..first 928 then 910...those stubborn H&S followers have a long way to go....
2bit
John,
Just look at the $NYMO this is where the money is flowing into the market ...similar to Oct, Nov, Mar and now July bottoms ...it will probably hit 100 like other times...H&S pattern is just a trader's fantasy...a series of sine/cosine waves within a turning envelope. Now it looks like Bradley's turn date is an up trend one....
2bit
IBM
2bit
Oman ,LOL, I am not going to listen to any guru who couldn't recognize a mutant head...
2bit
mk,
the Dow has only gone up 600 pts...if it were March 9 all over again it would easily hit 1000 pts before it is over LOL
2bit
me too, Blasher and OTC player...the H&S is dead.. head is being taken out...
2bit
That's why the market is in a holding pattern..but even if they were good..it is due for a pullback...
2bit
Another guru preaching spx > 1000
2bit
http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/
It looks like today is another waste of time day...may be tomorrow they will drop it hard to clean out the longs...GOOG, IBM depending...
2bit
Anybody has experience playing SPXU? looks like a good buy here..
2bit
Another Guru's comment on H&S
"The other major technical consideration today is that the S&P 500, by breaking 931, has officially caused a head and shoulders failure pattern which is the most reliable pattern in the market. This means that 9 times out of 10 (actually some MIT guys once calculated it to 87% of the time) the market will now move above the head which is at 956. If the market were to instead break 869 before breaking 956, this would be the very rare "failure of a failure" which you've probably by now calculated occurs around 10% or so of the time. The odds are heavily in favor of the bulls here."
2bit
Fox, Lol
very good. I only use system that is mathematically based that is 1 + 1 has to equal to 2 and I am happy with the one I am using. I am just intrigued with the different interpretations of the same data by the gurus. I guess success comes from the correct deciphering of the common data..there should only be one underlying truth...
2bit
Oman,
I should make a lot of money by being a guru then, by being late and wrong...now why didn't I think of that?
2bit
They have already committed to a jobless recovery....LOL..just who recovers if the whole nation is out of work...
2bit
Rab,
Good info thanks. Ya, it is not easy to trade you have to turn on a dime. But, whoever, predicts the future direction is the real guru. Right now, we have six and 1/2 a dozen of the others.
Good luck
2bit
I am not thinking one way or the other..all I know is there is a very reliable sell signal out today and I am short. The things that bother me are McClellan Oscillator broke out and if oil is going up they are contrary to the market turning down. I guess will soon find out who is the real guru...
2bit
Another guru bites the dust..Tim Knight gave up on H&S
..SPX target now >1000
2bit
http://slopeofhope.com/
The Gurus are just like terrorists....
The TTheory guru is coming out to claim credit for the new bull phase.The McCllnan Osc is breaking out of downward channel and his forecast is SPX 1200....I guess tomorrow we will see if the H&S gurus are full of shits or if this guy is..
2bit
Evil Rat in pain..
2bit
http://evilspeculator.com/
Short signal out
2bit
Fox,
As long as it does not break out of the down channel to 96, the envelope theory should still be in effect...if it does then H&S is in question and Bradley July 14 turn date may just be up up and away.....
2bit
Gleno,
To kill an H&S you have to behead it, that is exceed it. If you kill this H&S you actually kill two H&S. There is an inverse one depending on the formation of this one. If 915 is the top of the right shoulder, we will get get it first thing in the morning. But if it is obvious, it is obviously ...shit you know the rest. Somehow, there is an eerie feeling that it just can't be that simple....
2bit
One more opinion on this H&S dirty stuff....
2bit
http://slopeofhope.com/
Two,
Glad to see you follow ur own discipline. I got stuck many times by being stubborn. I am sure tomorrow will offer a much better short entry point. INTC is hardly a market mover, but I guess this time it is different.
good luck
2bit
Gloe,
That is why many traders short from the right shoulder and not the neckline...
interesting reference to the Sherlock Holmes...
2bit
Two,
Hope ur out of ur QID, futures up big AH
2bit
A dislocated right shoulder ..are we still Head&shouldering?
2bit
Two,
use a 2-hour time frame instead of 5 min even 30 minute is too short...then you will see there is a lot more upside...not the time to short yet, may be tomorrow....I am going to follow Blasher do a lot more swing trades...day trading is not worth my time anymore
good luck
2bit
Hey, Fox,
What's you take on this rampo...as I said before Goldman Sachs does it's trick again...the picture is distorted...
2bit
Hey Gleno,
I like your SPX chart, post more often. I don't care about the Qs too much. But spx is good.
thanks
2bit
Hey Den,
Didn't he admit he is bad in execution?LOL
have a good weekend
2bit
Anyone still in a buy mode?
2bit
http://slopeofhope.com/
Anyone still remembers this guy?
2bit
"Announcement from Robert Hitt
7/4/2009
I am moving back to the mountains after a 6 month stay in North Carolina. I have come to a conclusion that the situation at hand is the back side of the economic storm that started in 2007 is due to arrive some time as early as in the next few weeks. What we have seen since March is the eye of that storm. This period of calm has been well below expectation as far as recovery and relief which translates to logically assuming the crisis is far from over.
When the eye wall comes ashore probably in August I want to be settled in as much as possible to ride out what could be a sudden ramping up of crisis at a level last seen in January - March 2009.
My suggestion to readers is at a minimum begin to prepare now for a hard winter and difficulty lasting into mid 2010. Each individual must use common sense to determine what type preparation is best. There is no reason to panic but be purposeful at this time while it is fairly easy to get things done.
Once I get back and have settled into a new routine writing monthly for the site I will resume working as a consultant with a few select customers on daily and intraday timing."
Oman,
I also pondered over the dojis. But not all dojis are the same. If there were tristars in the south then a bounce for sure. But they were falling dojis. If you consolidate all three you would get one single doji but it is at the foot of a previous red candle. This consolidation at the foot of a red candle is bearish and more often than not lead to continuation of the down trend. Just my 2 bits of course.
2bit
ok folks,
An updated H&S with a slanting neckline. This satisfies the neckline retest and Oman, I am not concern about one up day but the target in a week's time. Channel and wave counts and H&S all confirm target 390ish in a week.
( ps take it with a grain of salt of course..GS reports on Tuesday, they can pump or beat the shit out of this market of course)
2bit
Den,
You can consider neckline retested already by those dojis..
2bit
The H&S is a done deal for the Dow.
If you believe in the DOW leading the rest will follow.
2bit
You and Rab,
Thanks for your comments. I am well aware of the possibility of a complex H&S or even a failed H&S. However, if you remember my previous post about monitoring the AD issues at the right shoulder, it has shown me a very bad situation in that it is similar to Jan16 2009. This signifies an extended down turn ahead. Therefore, a failed H&S is more than likely out of the question. Now, as to forming a complex H&S, to bounce first then drop? There is really nothing to support that except that the market is in OS condition. But that alone would not do it. The volatility index is broken out of major moving averages. Friday's close was below pivot. All these point to continuation of down turn. Next week, is earning season in earnest. Last one they did good because expectation was so low. Do you think the market is going to react the same way this time? All my 401K equivalent are in cash as of Friday.
Good luck
2bit