is... a buy and hold investor of dividend US and Canadian stocks
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nope. never claimed that... i said that refineries can't be bothered with small quantities. I did not even know the minimum qauntity when i said that. does not matter.
Thoughts? It is about time! In fact a Project Manager working in indusry having made the kind of commitments to timelines that JB made with that kind opf performance would have been fired. Thise are my "thoughts"..
look back at my consistent posting. Permitting is, was, and always will be a DETAIL.
168 barrels a day may be the minimum that refineries can buy, that does not mean that they will. I was at a meeting 10 years ago in a different industry where they explained how their production planning was done... the average person on the street would never know how it works. The only thing that matters is profitability. They are going to go with the largest voluke suppliers first over independents like JBII.
actually, i believe you have your daatyes mixed up. talking about a blending site in february is a change in plan from what was talked about before that(refineries). That is what I meant. The blending site is a different proposition altogether, much more difficult to assess, and a different channel altogether.
actually you are completely wrong rawnoc, and it shows that you have never worked in industry behind the scenes where the work is done to make these things happen. Of course if you are standing on the dock it appears as if there is no difference between 500 tankers and 1 tanker, but from a practical operational and cost standpoint, there is a huge difference.
Each shipment has customs issues, paperwork, contract management, etc, etc. A single tanker would cost twice as much to unload as 500 tankers, on a tanker by tanker basis.
Thankyou for confirming what i was saying about the blending site. I was going to look that up, but you found it for me. February 2010. That is LONG after the initial game plan (tapes plus sales to refineries) was announced. Rather late in the game in terms of initial promises made, I would say.
And lastly, it is typical to see a strategist who does not succeed simply say "we will do everything". Like saying that sales will come from every and any source. No they won't not unless you plan it out.
There are no buyers on the moon.
sounds like the original strategy (selling to refineries) we all agree is not the game plan, maybe because refineries are only interested in large quantities.
And you say this blending plant is an OPTION?
when you are into people at 4.00 a share, I would say it is a bit more of an OPTION, it is SURVIVAL.
seems like JB is changing his mind all the time, with no well-thought-out strategy.
168 barrels is indeed "small quantities". Whether or not they could sell direct to a refinery depends on the refineries purchasing practices, but the refinery would definitely be doing JBI a favor.
If you check out this link, you will find a number of articles that specify refining capacity for the United States. Just as an example, there is 1 refinery in Georgia, whose capacity is 28,000 barrels/ day.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/refinery_capacity_data/refcapacity.html
I will append the pdf at the end of this message.
If a refinery does 29k barrels a day, they are going to lock in contracts with suppliers at the best possible rate they can (not necessarily WTI). Any remaining capacity would go to small suppliers like JBI at the Spot Price (WTI-3 or whatever). Therefore JBI does not have assured customer relationships or an assured market. It may be spotty or inconsistent. Nothing but problems. What is really interesting about this is that nobody can accuse JB of lying. He is correct. It is just a question of feasibility.
This is discussed in the following link.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/oil_market_basics/price_transactions.htm
What i just said above is specifically mentioned."Contract arrangements in the oil market in fact cover most oil that changes hands." and "More traditionally, however, the oil industry uses the spot market to balance supply and demand. When a company temporarily has too much supply for its own needs, it will offer some for sale in the spot market. Likewise, if it needs additional volumes to meet a demand spike, or because supply is unexpectedly curtailed, it will purchase oil on a cargo-by-cargo, shipment-by-shipment basis. In recent years, the growth of "merchant refiners" has depended on viable spot markets. These independent refiners manufacture products not to fill their own marketing networks, but to sell the oil in third-party transactions to the highest bidder.".
I posted some time ago that the reason why he built the blending plant was "desperation". Maybe he realized that his original plan was not going to work, and came up with the blending plant, to vertically integrate.. There could be lots of Barriers to Entry which I am not even aware of. Frankly I have no idea whether or not he can sell the output from the blending plant.
One question:
If you drove a $50000 Mercedes, would you want to put pyrolysis oil in it? I doubt it. I can't imagine JBI selling to gas stations.
This is the pdf.
I seem to be technically challenged. It is the first one in the list in the link.
I myself would classify 168 barrels as "small quantities". I think that refineries would deal in much larger contracts and quantities than that. So, I would guess that JBI would have to deliver much more than that.
Anyway, it is besides the point. PP's original point was that there should be some kind of contract or guarantee that this fuel can be sold. No amount of links or statements will convince me of the ability to sell this fuel other than a contract. Yes selling a gallon or 50 whatever it was is impractical.
And it still brings into question whether or not JBI can be successful even given the statement referenced.
Finally, notice that they said "crude oil", not fuel, not off-gas, not near diesel, not pyrolysis oil... That alone would invalidate it.
As for the last bit there, tech, I must apologize. It was not actually directed at you, rather a general comment.
the chart ends on the 13 of September. I believe that was last week. you are off by a week. I was wondering what effect the fact that the news came out at the end of the day would have on that indicator or statistic.
If you look at a 1-day chart you will see a jump up at 2:00 PM. Is that when the news came out?
Please add the following to the list:
- JBI will not be able to make fuel for $10 or less.
- JBI may not be able to sell for the prices they have projected.
- JBI may not be able to sell the fuel at the prices they have projected in large enough quantities to make money.
In fact, these items are WAY more important than any of that stuff in your list. In fact, I would say your list is irrelevant.
Proven wrong?
The Skeptic Evolution Is Getting Fascinating....
(1) First P2O was a scam. at 7.00
(2) Then P2O wouldn't scale up. at 6.00 (something must have been right)
(3) Then P2O scaled up wouldn't work outside of a lab. (at ??)
(4) Then scaled up P2O outside of a lab has no proof of trace or no emissions and non-hazardous residue. (maybe at 5.00?)
(5) Then the stack test passed but only with top shelf, grade A, vitamin-D fortified plastic sold behind bullet-proof glass at Tiffany's and not a variety of plastics including post-consumer.
(definitely at 4.00)
(6) Now a stack test that passed with flying colors using a VARIETY of plastics, but they still won't get the permit to operate.
at .70., therefore some of the above must have been correct...
WHAT A TERRIBLE DAY FOR JBII!!! 300K Volume, and a price rise of a whopping .06 (8%). The yeasayers must be chagrined. Is that the best this stock can do?
The chart says it all:
Clearly the Money Flow Indicator, which has been shown to be predictive, indicates that it is Overbought. This stock is weird this way, in that whenever they do something good or issue a press release it goes south. Must be that the news or events never meet the promise expected by the speculators and they exit.
It will be a couple of months before anything else happens, like real production.
SELL WHILE YOU STILL CAN!!! LOOK OUT BELOW!!!
Islechem did not sell it nor did they guarantee it could be sold.
Furthermore... you said somehting that i have always wondered about, you said that refineries only deal in large quantities.. good point. Is that not a problem for JBII then? Isn't JBII by definition dealing in small quantities?
like who?
the odds are that there is some reasons that she is not divulging because to do so would be unprofessional... just odds. When CEOs depart prior to having accomplished stated missions, etc... and without succession planning there is little difference between being fired and quitting.
Valuation of the media credits would have little to do with it, whether they were 5 M or 10M or 1M, and the argument that that led to the restatement (and hence the restatement was Kidd's fault?) would not hold water.
it would make sense for him to liquidate his shares, but perhaps he could not liquidate all of them due to the lack of liquidity in the stock. His bankruptcy trustee would receive the shares as well as all of his other liquid assets to go to his creditors.
Still, is his caes is based on misrepresentation it really doesn't matter. He has suffered a loss nonetheless... if he receives a setttlement for a court case started during the bankruptcy it would likely go to his creditors as well... and maybe enable him to reverse the bankruptcy if received during the term of the bankruptcy. I don't know US law on the matter. In Canada a bankruptcy takes 9 months.. i believe.
His bankruptcy and his case against JBII are two different things and the presiding judge will see it that way. I would guess that he is claiming misrepresentation. Didn't he get the shares fairly cheaply, around .80?
Whatever the case, he would be claiming that he was misled into believing the shares would be worth much more than they turned out to be. This was in lieu of accepting cash for the media credits, which might have saved him from bankruptcy. Accepting the JBII shares was his mistake. It is a desperate act. Then he found his shares restricted until recently, and hence cannot make the capital gain he expected.
It strikes me as strange that he would bother while in bankruptcy, since bankruptcy equates to giving up. However bankruptcies can be reversed for a fee. Maybe he intends to win his case during his bankruptcy and then perhaps to get out of bankruptcy based on receiving the settlement...
You're on OGINVU. We can invite Guzaling down as well. He is close, Ridgeway is it? (relax it is in his profile). Hash it out over a few nBeer instead of online here. Bring your best stuff.
But, it may seem like I am dodging you because I am BUSY these days with WORK. Nothing but WORK, WORK, WORK for me. I am in in-demand Consultant... Unemployment is a DISTANT MEMORY.
Plus, you know what the traffic is like on the QEW? What seems like a nice morning jaunt can turn into a nightmare... thank God for the 407 toll road, have CAA (that is AAA for us) will travel.
I will do my best to make a weekend day during the fall where we can abuse each other for real over JBII....
point taken.... actually i was thinking of driving down to niagara and just asking JB.... WTF? what do you think of that?
how do you think he would respond?
well we don't have alot of facts do we? we are not going to have alot of facts because it is not customary for people who leave as CEOS or as BOD members to provide the relevant facts. A poster here is first-hand evidence of that. It is a violation of their relationship with the company they worked for, and bad form...
I waS TALKING ABOUT "PROBABILITIES" NOT FACTS... there is no sense putting a postiive face on it either..
Rawnoc:
A smart guy like you must admit how improbable that is. There are no absolutes here, but... let's be realistic.
First of all, CEOs rarely ever "quit". They are asked to leave in lieu of being fired. Even if she did leave of her own accord, her timing makes it unprofessional and leaves a stain on her reputation. Afterall, JBII is struggling to survive and prove itself. So it is highly likely that there is a problem in the organization which may or may not be directly her fault, but it is bad for the organization nonetheless. So I doubt they "cleaned house". She is probably quite good and her departure is a loss to the organization. What they are doing is decimating the organization. There is nothing good about it.
Secondly, CEOs who quit never reveal the real reason why they quit if they have a difference of opinion with the boss of if there is a power struggle. We will never know why either Steve Seneca or Vasquez quit.
Lastly, the "massive P2O launch". haha... more like they might just get the factory in New York going, prove the profitability and the process superiority, and then they just might get a few JVs operating. Might... Hardly a massive launch..
It is funny to have you put so positive a face on a bad situation... as per usual..
tech, the first one was good... this one is better in some ways, but you are tryin' a bit too hard... lol... good stuff.
your predisposition towards the yeasayers is very obvious... lol.
dead right yes. OTC stocks are perceived as flaky by financial institutions and hence are not "RRSP-eligible".
Well that is too bad for investors, but how important is it to JBII? I don't think that JB is thinking about RRSPs when he thinks about uplisting. He is thinking about getting more exposure, perhaps thinking that will solve everything for him. I think he is highly overrating the value of that exposure. Certainly he is not trying to improve his debt/equity ratio, because he does not have one.
He did a good job of getting the stock price up there, which allowed him to raise funds at a nice price of $4. Then he "came to realize" that he needed to have a better accountant to uplist.
Well, his getting a better accountant screwed the stock price, which defeated the purpose of uplisting in the first place. He would have been better off to get the business going first, then upgrade the accountant. He is focussed on the wrong things..
No GWMAN you are just confused.
JBII has to earn the right to trade on a higher exchange. What I mean is that all too often a CEO gets an idea in his head to get the stock price up so he can get to a higher exchange for benefits like: improving the P/E ratio and getting better credit terms, getting more exposure to investors (perhaps somewhat valid), and others. But... this is just a distraction from running his business, which comes first. Hence he should "earn" his way to a better exchange by executing first, without looking to that uplist as a solution to the company's operational or financial problems.
This happens at the highest levels. Case in point: Nortel under Frank Dunn. He was an accountant that focussed all his time on cooking the books in the vain hope of improving his debt/equity ratio by getting the stock price up again. In 2004. He came out swinging at .10/share for the quarter and was immediately called on it by the analysts. The story unravelled in a couple of months or less. That company simply needed to get rid of a great many 100k Engineers up at the Big Nerd Ranch in Ottawa, also known as Bell Northern Research, and focus the efforts of the rest of them.
From the investor's point of view, it does not matter a damn where a company trades. I have noticed this when I search for stocks that it really does not matter when you look at it on strict financial paramters or fundamentals. In Canada we have the TSX and the TSX-Venture, similar to your NASDAQ. Most hitech companies trade on the TSX Venture because they don't need to be on the TSX, but that is all. Similarly the NYSE does not list a great many hitech companies.
What I have noticed is that the OTC is a wasteland. I can see why JBII wants to get off of it. Most of the charts are downward and it is full of scams. When I apply my selection criteria without regard to exchange, almost nothing on the OTC makes it.
When I look for stocks, exchange is really not much of a factor. I don't really do the US market, so I can't say how I would handle the OTC, except that very few stocks would interest me because they would not fit my criteria.
I know exactly what you mean. I get sleepy as well when I am listening to a presentation or trying to read something and I don't know what the heck they are talking about...
you mean something like this? (received on my email from Hotstocked.com):
Greetings!
We will be sending out a new lightning pick alert tomorrow morning on an alternative fuel company. Last week's lightning pick jumped 33% in the first hour, and we are optimistic about tomorrow's pick. The company is extremely profitable, and growing at over 100%.
If earnings continue at their current rate, this stock can go 5x higher. Tomorrow, we are teaming up with a few other very large newsletters and will all be notifying all of our subscribers that the stock looks excellent for a trade.
We need to keep the idea a secret for now. We will send you an e-mail with the exact details right when the market opens, if for some reason you don't receive the e-mail by 9:30, we will also post the stock pick on this page: http://www.hotstocked.com/lightning-picks/.
See you when the market opens.
Hotstocked Team
does not matter a damn. JBII has to earn the right to trade elsewhere on performance. Has to make money. Next thing you know JBII will be doing a Reverse Split and give a reason as being able to uplist...
ROFL
no it is not. explain yourself. how is my explanation poor?
i agree with you Righty, because it seems as if the average investor in JBII is naive.
It is expected to be able to get proper permitting. It is a detail of the project plan, and a small one at that. Any investor who thinks that it is important or makes a process commercially viable is naive. (Point #1).
Point #3 is simply to believe the above and to remain naive.
No one is asking because they are naive... simple.
Have you ever heard of the notion of Strategy vs. Tactics? It is a Business School thing. JB must know about it, having taken those Harvard classes.
As an investor I am not interested in people who do not deliver. Reading the 2007 article, i would expect him to be successful in the areas of custom engineering, robotics, reading old data tapes, and batteries.
If he can't do that, I can't take the most recent article seriously.
I can only assume that he will have similar results with P2O that he had with custom engineering, tape reading, robotocs, and batteries... which is nada.
And I expect we will be reading about something else in a couple of years, likely from some old data tape... or a 1972 PDP-11.
The organization I am currently working for has a 70-year Strategic a plan. We detail it out in 5-year increments and seek budgetary approval. THAT IS STRATEGIC PLANNING. JB is a tactician.
Another article by Bordynuik. I think this is where the "1000 Transistors" quote came from MLM.
This article appeared in the March/ April 2007 edition of the same magazine. I am not sure if it is in the public domain. It does corroborate much of what has been discussed on this board and makes for interesting, entertaining reading.
My own impressions:
- he is a smart guy, no doubt about that.
- he is a tinkerer and not a businessman, no doubt about that.
- in fact, he reminds me of a roommate I once had, who was a distinctly different personality than mine, a very smart tinkerer as well. Had computers all over the place. But, he could not see the big picture. In business together, with myself as the accountant/ planner, we could do some damage (in a good way..).
- he spent far too much time playing around with old computer stuff as a kid for no good purpose.
- playing with old computer stuff makes no business sense. If there is one area where technology has marched on and left old stuff in the dust, it is in the area of computers.
- in fact, I bet for every 10 entrepreneurs that tries to make a living in the computer industry, only 1 survives. It is a brutal, tough business.
- there is no mention in the article of how he MAKES MONEY. In serving his clients by doing custom engineering work, how does he make money. Is it even profitable? I know lots of companies that do this. Not all are successful. In fact, very few.
- where is the battery business at?
- there is NO mention of P2O.
- there are a lot of motherhood statements in there about doing the right thing for the Niagara Region. Good, but meaningless stuff without the delivery.
Most Importantly:
This article appeared 3 years ago. in the intervening time, what has he accomplished? How has he delivered on the promise? How are his investors doing?
The tape business is majorly featured, but not in an overwhelming way. Rather... where is the tape business?
If he published an article like the recent one before, then the recent one is no big deal. He is simply capitalizing on the goodwill in his community. Good for him. So what?
Lastly and most importantly, I am uniquely qualified to comment on his latest business venture, because I spent 15 years in software development and am now in Construction, Engineering, and Process Manufacturing. He is on new turf here and is learning as he goes. That is a warning to investors. He may have grossly underestimated his costs. He may not know what the heck he is doing or maybe he does. But it is new, unfamiliar turf for him... all the brains in the world will not make a difference without careful planning and good execution, as well as cost control. There are no short-term heroics that will save him if he gets himself in trouble... enough said..
It is a good read. Very entertaining..
Unfortunately, it came out in 5 different files... 1/page.
MLM, the 1000 transistor thing is near the last page... frankly, given the rate of change and price point in electronics, I don't understand his point.
Here is page 1 (I will try to append all pages):
Here is the text from the article (April 26, 2010):
..BI, Inc. (the "Company") (OTCBB: JBII | PowerRating) would like to announce that its JAVACO division achieved a 52% increase in sales for the first quarter of 2010 compared to the first quarter of 2009. JAVACO was able to achieve higher sales partly due to an extended line of credit provided by JBI, Inc., allowing JAVACO to accept larger orders.
About JBI, Inc. .. blah, blah..
Well, all I meant was that anytime you give % figures instead of numbers it is misleading, except for those with a brain. Anytime you search for stocks with a screener using growth (revenue growth?) parameters you have to watch out for this. Any startup company will have deceiving high growth numbers for it's first year or several years. If your sales go from $10 to $40 that is a whopping 400%, which means didly squat. If they had given real numbers it would have had some real meaning.
I do have to give them credit though for providing an explanation, that in fact detracts from the point being made. Simply having more credit does not imply anything about increasing sales in a company, so why release the information in the first place? If they had absolute numbers it would be far more credible than that kind of explanation.
in fact, I know exactly where Javaco is, from a phone conversation I had with the management. I called them just for fun and asked about franchising. I was looking for MLM-type features and found none. At that time (several months ago) they were just starting to get business in the Niagara area and attempting to expand to Toronto. Really just getting off the ground.
Well, you know what Brig, you may have done some DD (reading about the stock..?) but your posting record does not show it. I just looked at your last 30 or so JBII posts. All you do is challenge other people. Look for flaws in their arguments. Frankly, I don't care. People who challenge me are just a pain. I don't mind responding, but after awhile it is just a pain. I am looking for their ideas an input.
You last post that contained any useful information was this one:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=53456965
It contains a tidbit. Beyond that, you have posted nothing of any value that I can see.
I must say at least Rawnoc posts useful information.
Ever posted anything like this:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=53974773
Can you add to it?
I tell you what Brig. Answer this, what information is there available to back up the claim that JBII can make this pyrolysis fuel for $10/barrel? Other than "John Bordynuik said so".
Consider yourself challenged
I have a juicy one that I will be posting over the weekend. Stay tuned... tune in Sunday night to view the aftermath...
it is fairly obvious that I am not the poster, isn't it? It was posted by Paper Prophet. I thought it was a great post. So no, those are not my opinions or thoughts.
exactly. I am an industry expert in process industries, relatively on this board, because i have project management experience managing these types of projects. I would dare say I know more about it than YOU, RAWNOC, and quite a few other posters. The only ones that have posted more credible information are a couple of the negative posters like PaperProphet and MLM.
But, knowing more than you and Rawnoc is not nearly enough to invest in a stock. In that light, no I am NOT an industry expert. IMO, I would never invest in this because I just don't have the expertise.
And no, I don't need links. The only thing worth posting is opinion backed up by knowledge. I know how to use Google to find links and have no interest in calling out liars or trying to prove things.
If you want links go play golf. (Then have breakfast with sausages).