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Dems take over OIL prices are now rising:(((((((((((((((
My daughter took one of those flights in Sept,Whew!
soxxy boy toy is dominating the board,he/she should be tos'd!
Nova here is a risk/reward play for you Dear:)))
Buy the DIA March 120 Puts (DAW OP) at the open of tomorrow’s trading. The current bid/ask spread is $2.40–2.50 per contract.
Today’s big story is really big. Rather than offer you analysis of one particular sector, thought I would apprise you of a potential danger looming for all of them, and show you what you could do about it.
A couple of years back, I noticed a pattern in the big blue chip indices: Regardless of whether they were in a bull or bear cycle, the blue chips substantially retraced on a remarkably regular basis.
This may seem like an obvious fact -- cash flows in and cash flows out like a heartbeat. Here are a few facts that are less intuitive but equally apparent to an astute student of market patterns:
Over the past decade, it has fallen an average of 15.01% over an average of 2.53 months 15 times . On average, this event commences once every eight months. The last such drop began in May of this year, exactly six months ago.
There are variances in the actual events. Some were relatively minor moves, but that doesn’t mean that they should still be ignored. Should a mere 5.25% drop commence tomorrow morning, it would equate to a drop on the Dow of approximately 600 points. But don’t get your hopes up too high, as drops of this size are actually relatively uncommon.
Should the average drop occur, you would see the most staid, reliable stocks in the world peel off 1,821 points over the course of some 10 to 12 weeks. Again, allow me to reiterate that this is not a fantasy . Losses of this nature are the most common of regular occurrences.
On the other side of the bell curve, things get a little scary: Roughly 20% of the time, the drops come in around 27.51%. These are not mere corrections but rather full-fledged bear market events. If the blue chips were to “enjoy” a crash like this, it would be particularly disastrous due to the heights they have climbed to; we would be talking Dow 8,862 before the bottom set in. But why are we talking about this today? Hasn’t the Dow been rallying nonstop for the past six months?
Using the DIA chart as a proxy for the Dow Jones Industrials (the DIA chart offers certain technical advantages over the INDU.X, including higher quality volume studies), one can see that each of the previous “mini-drops” within the rising trend had a common theme.
Five times we have seen a stroke down through the 11-day prime moving average. And each time, price found support at the bottom line of the rising trend, and each of these mini-drops generated a buy signal on the accompanying corollary oscillator -- until yesterday’s 156-point down move.
You can see a breakdown at the bottom of the rising trend on the upper chart, and a sell signal on the lower chart, indicating that the manic rising trend of the past five months has finally broken.
Now all this does not guarantee that a major cyclic Dow retracement is upon us. It is quite possible that we will see some sideways movement before seeing a drop of 600 points. What I can tell you for a fact is that such a move in the near future is virtually inevitable. And that this is an ideal setup for that breakdown. All the pieces are in place. The question now is,“What are you going to do about it?”
The play
A devastating down move on the major market averages does not have to equate into a loss in your portfolio. Instead of crying bitter tears every eight months, you could use the same techniques that every fund manager on Wall Street uses to protect him or herself from these regular, periodic drops. And that’s why we recommend that you own longer-dated protective put options on the DIAMONDS Trust (DIA).
Using our historical percentage losses as a guide, the next downside move on the Dow could take the Index all the way down to 10,322. That’s a whopping 1,792-point drop from current levels.
With losses of that magnitude, it makes perfect sense to have an insurance policy in your back pocket. And that’s why we’re recommending that you buy the DIA March 120 Puts (DAW OP) at or under $3 per contract. The current bid/ask spread is $2.40–2.50 per contract.
As a point of reference, these puts could potentially increase from $250 all the way up to $970 if the Dow falls down to 10,322 by March 2007. That’s a whopping 288% gain from current levels! And remember, you’ll be making these gains as the market is falling! If the DIA falls to only 117, that would still push the DIA March 120 puts up to $4, good for a 63% gainer.
Buy the DIA March 120 Puts (DAW OP) at the open of tomorrow’s trading. The current bid/ask spread is $2.40–2.50 per contract.
This will lift your spirits,
peggy,YOU ARED WRONG! You brought my children into the discussion asking if they would serve. My kids are the cream and I am proud of them both. Now what do your kids do?
Joe Kennedy is a bum,pays himself 10K/week plus from that "Non-Profit".
Grandchildren are a wonderful gift,eh? I have heard that looks come from the female genes :)
Tell us about your kids chief
foly,What do your kids do?
This link applies to you foly also,
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg_ig.asp?message_id=14964520
You are a Disgrace Ntln,Let me educate you.
During the past year my son recieved two, not one but two Congressional Appointments to The United States Naval Academy. By your own words I can tell you are Ignorant to such things so here we go. In order to recieve such a Congressional appointment a candidate for the Academy must exceed academic and character qualifications as well as demonstrate a strong desire to serve his or her country through a strenuous interview process. Even after that ordeal a congress member can only appoint 2 candidates. Hundreds of applications are routinely recieved from each district.
My son graduated with High Honors from a rigorous High School curriculum at the top of his class. He scored a 2180 out of 2400 on his SAT,(For you that would be an average of 726 per section). He recieved 8 varsity letters and reached the level of Eagle Scout. I can't even begin to mention his civic volunteer record. He was deferred and not accepted based on a DOD physical exam. He is currently on full scholarship in a pre-med program. Before you speak of others and their accomplishments look in the mirror. BTW my daughter is equally successful in the comfortable classroom and will graguate as a "Presidential Scholar" from Dartmouth.
You sir speak from ignorence and deserve no respect. Be careful when you speak of children,BTW what do your kids do?
What do your kids do peggy?
peggy girl,you embarrass yourself yet again. Recruitment targets are on track as they stand. I say support the democratic idea of a draft. I would support that democratic idea. "Demonstrated Excellence" by both our children is focused on filling the physician shortage that is chocking our healthcare system. What are your kids doing?
Hey foly,What do you know about my kids?
day,You really are a kid,I know of no one who supports war. When you grow up and reach a level of maturity maybe you will realize this.Until then go away I have no time for you.
My children would be proud to serve,You know NOTHING about my children and I find it offensive for you to judge them without a single bit of knowledge about them. I am prejudice about them but I can assure you my kids are two examples of Americas finest. You are a disgrace for judging mine or for that fact anyones kids. Your satirical characterization of a "comfortable classroom" is nonesense, they have both performed at the highest levels in the nation in that arena. We expect great things from both our children and they have both demonstrated excellence both in and out of your so called "comfortable classroom". Your dismissive comments are rubbish.
I agree with you 100% Rollin,Our military is the finest in History. However you must face the hard facts that the Dems are in charge now at least for the next two years. If their leading members of Congress wish to institute a draft so be it.The people have spoken and I for one honor the vote like it or not. So if they want a draft lets give it to them! The problem I feel you and I have is that the country has not been willing to let the military do its job,that is to accept a mission and carry it out to Victory. All this should have been done with a long time ago I'm afarid. Teddy was right,walk softly and carry a big stick! In the end the far right wing Democrats who rule the party will hang themselves and the conservative movement will take back congressional control. Hopefully with a stronger will to pursue a conservative agenda.
I Agree Bull,Let the Dems bring on the Draft
Dems are in charge and they WANT a draft,even though I agree with you,thems the facts for the next couple of years. Looking forward to the 08 elections I hope the Dems really push hard for a draft. They will be exposed as a party for their radical beliefs.
Democrats will sponsor a draft resolution.
Israel HAS to draft,US draft coming soon/Dems in charge
Democrats are advocating a Draft. Excellent!
They incorporate a different buisness model,pretty simple Bull. We are a free market based economy your welcome to picket Walmart as are others who want to save money and shop there.
Celebrate Free speech peggy,your a book burner in hiding
Santorum is a class act,we have not heard the last from him.I would be proud to call him a friend
Free speech makes this country great,TV show will get huge ratings
Iranian paper: Great war to wipe out Israel coming
Ich bin kein Jude, ist meine Erbschaft deutsch
Hey Sortawuss,go give the indians more of your kids $$$
LX,Are you really that Anti-Semetic,We all know what you meant
LX? Why do you favor Destruction of Israel
Sortawussy,Is that a TOS Personal Attack? How much of your families $$ have you lost this week you Degenerate? Double L = Double Loser,Huge LOL on your Degenerate Gambling Loser Family.
Lx you should be Banned for supporting Israeli Destruction
SortaWuss, How much $$$ did yopu lose for your family yesterday?
Dems favor all out removal,Lets do it BEFORE Christmas
Lx should be BANNED for agreeing with Iran statements to wipe Israel off the map. To equate the two nations shows an ignorence beyond imagination.
Murtha lost,Shooot!I was hoping he would win,Abscam and other shady deals did the hero in. Maybe now he will be indicted:)
Again LX,You said"it would be great to wipe out Israel"Where do you live?