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The market is acting strangely because of triple witching all the funds and brokerage houses need to recalibrate options and leaps to reflect the underlying securities.
Max Pain question
is Max Pain this month include Leaps also or just monthly options?
I think Market is harder to manipulate but absolutely gas prices are being cut just in time for election
Here is a graft showing relationship between Presidential Poll numbers and Gas Prices it is scarely how in sync they are
This is n't just OE but Triple Witching -as I posted on Friday the Monday before Triple Witching OE is always an up day.
Also another trend is the week after Sept triple witch OE is usually down week.
monday of triple witching OE week is always up
exactly -- consumers were suckered into ARMs even though interests rates were at a 30 year low - not lock up period is gone and consumers are stuck with monthly payments soaring on a home that is worth less than what they bought it for - a recipe for disaster.
I have a friend who is interior designer in NYC he does high end stuff and he said that he recently did some work for a developer of condos in west side of downtown manhattan. This area in front of Hudson River park is probably the hottest area in NYC. the developer has 40 condos in the building and after 9 months only 3 have sold!!!
I also agree
the Monday before triple witching is usually an up day
Pokersam
did you hold calls last month the week of OE? -- and that strategy worked
Well if Da Boyz backtested they would find the stock market performs better under Democratic Presidents than Republican
aapl might keep on going up till their Sept 12th announcement which is going to be movie downloads for sale on Itunes and new video capable nano and maybe an apple cell phone. classic buy rumor sell news scenario
This says it all
U.S. Aug. payrolls up 128,000, in line with expectations
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. firms continued to hire workers at a steady, but moderate pace in August, the Labor Department said Friday.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew by 128,000 jobs in August. Read full government release.
The unemployment rate inched lower to 4.7% in August from 4.8% in July.
Average hourly earnings rose by 2 cents, or 0.1%, to $16.79. Average wages were expected to rise 0.3%. Earnings were revised slightly higher in July to a gain of 0.5% compared with the initial estimate of a 0.4% gain.
Job growth came in very close to forecasts by Wall Street economists, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.
Seasonally adjusted payrolls in June and July were revised higher by a cumulative 18,000.
Payroll growth has averaged 117,000 per month in the past four months. This is measurably weaker than the 176,000 pace in the first quarter.
Average weekly earnings increased to $567.50.
Hourly earnings have increased 3.9% in the past year.
The unspectacular job and wage growth may help keep the Federal Reserve firmly on the sidelines at its next meeting on Sept. 20. The Federal Open Market Committee must decide whether to hold policy steady again after the first pause in August that followed two years of rate hikes.
The average workweek slipped by 6 minutes to 33.8 hours. This was below expectations that the workweek would hold steady in August.
Factory hours also fell by 6 minutes to 41.3 hours. Total hours worked in the economy decreased by 0.2%.
A survey of some 400,000 business establishments showed private payrolls increased by 111,000. Government added 17,000 jobs.
Jobs in manufacturing industries fell by 11,000, the third decline in the past four months.
The construction sector added 17,000 jobs in August, the strongest pace since February.
Service producing jobs rose by 118,000, led by the hiring of teachers for the upcoming school year.
Education and health services employment grew by 60,000, the fastest pace since October 2004.
Jobs in the retail sector fell by 14,000. This was the fourth decline in the past five months in the sector.
Leisure and hospitality industries added 10,000 jobs.
Household survey
A separate survey of some 60,000 households showed employment increased by 250,000 to 144.6 million, while unemployment fell by 86,000 to 7.1 million.
Greg Robb is a senior reporter for MarketWatch in Washington.
end of month rally -- I think we hit PS previous prediction by tomorrow of 39.31
OT- did you see this graph the other day in NY Times
Is that a Real Estate bubble or what
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.large.gif
I am ST Bull (until end of month) I think we could hit 39.31 by Aug 31st
of course then it is off the cliff after holiday
not a stealth rally an end of month rally
there is an argument that during summer months only day traders and program traders are really into market so the markets follow more technical patterns
I have been really reading up on this housing pop lately
how about this disturbing data
• 32.6% of new mortgages and home-equity loans in 2005 were interest only, up from 0.6% in 2000;
• 43% of first-time home buyers in 2005 put no money down;
• 15.2% of 2005 buyers owe at least 10% more than their home is worth (negative equity);
• 10% of all home owners with mortgages have no equity in their homes (zero equity);
• $2.7 trillion dollars in loans will adjust to higher rates in 2006 and 2007.
the question is how it plays out .. will we have a replay of S & L crisis?
OT housing "soft landing"
an amazing article on housing market - (the bears are right)
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/142759
any get in on this stock today?
Last Trade: 1.83
Trade Time: 4:00PM ET
Change: Up 1.43 (357.50%)
Prev Close: 0.40
Open: 0.42
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ACTC.OB
Dell had bad earnings yesterday and SEC investigation this is going to pull the QQQQ lower today.
max pain according to this site
http://www.ez-pnf.com/maxpain/mp8619.htm
is 37.00
last month max pain wasn't close either---
I have theory that it only works when triple witching is happening but I can't find any historic data on max pain to test theory haha
CPI was up to .04 but CPI core rate up .02 we are going to have monster day
actually if you look Poker is in 37 calls
fluff good call
are you holding your puts or selling at close?
well geo political is going to help french controled cease fire
in lebenon - good chance it will hold
poker you still selling today? I think this is first day of multiday bounce
OT- any long embargo would devestate Iran - their economy is one dimensional (OIL)
if they closed shop the effects on their economy would come quickly and be painful. -- while they have a ton of oil they have no gasoline = they import 40% of it - Iran's economy would come to stand still if that flow of gas stopped-
shortterm I think you hit the nail on the head - reserves are actually high now so alaska going offline isn't a huge shortterm problem..
As far as Iran using oil as weapon. Please please let them try. 50 percent of Iranian GDP is from oil sales - I think if they used oil as weapon it might hurt US a bit but it would crush the Iranian economy.
OT I currently have no position in Apple computer (but I am a mac user) but in the last 2 weeks I have talked to 5 unrelated PC users who are about to purchase macs and called me for advice.. this has never happen before -- While ipod sales have flattened they are being replaced with mac sales which are way more lucrative for apple.
it is the twilight zone where Pokersam is the lone bull
wow impressive you nailed it Poker
One thing about Max Pain is it changes up until the last week of OE. last month it went from 38.00 two weeks before OE to 37.00 the week of EO
Max Pain fails-- I have a theory that max pain really only works when there is triple witching OE. I am going to research this weekend.
Max Pain for qqqq is now 37.00 - which is exactly where we end up by friday afternoon
Apple is up 12% in per market -
Intel getting slammed now AH -- but conference called is at 5:30pm = here comes the positive guidances (my prediction)
- Intel has been beaten down for so long I think it is really oversold - it will be dismal report but they have a bunch of new chips coming out. so it is all about future products and guidance.
Google -- well yahoo's bad news might be google's good news.
I think Apple also reports today it has taken a beating because ipod sales have cooled but everyone seems to forget they make all their money on computers and macbook has been a huge hit so I would expect surprise on the upside.
ben must have gotten a call from Da Boyz - to say something positive about inflation so goose the markets
Hi all I see there is new board -- I haven't had a chance to post but everyone's posting have been great
I think Da Boyz need a rally -- Max Pain is 38 this month.