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Jonsie, after a company drills, completes and produces a few wells which define the aerial extent of the hydrocarbon accumulation (acres), the thickness of net pay (based on e-logs) and gives the reservoir engineer a feel for recoveries in "Stock Tank Barrels" (doesn't do any good if they found a billion barrels of oil in place but can't produce it into a "stock tank) those reserve numbers become "Proven Reserves". Proven reserves are then broken into "Proved Developed Producing" (PDP) and "Proved Undeveloped" (PUD). PUD reserves are development drilling locations which have a very high chance of commercial success based on known extent of target reservoir. There are then Probable (step out, etc) and Possible (deeper drilling, new fault block, etc) which are not "bookable". I believe a company can only "book" Proven Reserves on their balance sheet.
In TIV's case, I think TIV's pre-exploitation "proven reserves", at time of purchase, were very minimal due to small daily production, limited aerial extent of producing wells with just a few producing horizons in existing wells. Thats exactly the kind of proeprty you want to get your hands on. TIV's current rework program to enhance daily production from existing zones/new zones combined with their step out drilling to increase the aerial extent of production, will "prove up" much more "Proven Reserves". Of course a huge jump in a company's balance sheet based on finding and booking much more reserves after buying an "under performing property" (as in this case) is exactly what large investors and institutions are looking for to inject large capital.
Hope this general synopsis of reserves helps.
Geo
It looks like Cohen is from San Rafael in Marin County, real close to Tiburon. I wonder if our WK had anything to do with finding those folks? Stone's throw way.
Well, it sure would be nice to finally realize the effects of "no more shares" and "big buying coming". All I keep seeing is anemic buying and shorts gettin shares to shut down runs and/or put us in the red. But, like you said, maybe, just maybe, TIV will soon (oops) come out with a third party engineering report from a well known and reputable engineering firm using SEC requirement guidelines, which will have millions of barrels of proven reserves that TIV can finally book (you know, bottom line stuff). Now we're talkin!
Geo
Jonsie, what is your opinion of this "Golden Cross" set up right now. Did it happen? Do you think that will light up computer screens all over the world and start some monster buying? As you said, you sure wouldn't think TIV is lightin up too many screens this AM, at least not yet.
Geo
I may have misunderstood him and if so, I apologize.
I would like to see an uptick with legs. These 30K upticks are so fragile due to the kind of shorts we have around here. It looks like the shorts let a few weak buyers get the price up until about a 1/2 hour before close, or let it ride until it gets to about $8.4, and then they step in and take it all away very quickly. Thats why I keep saying we need some bona fide big guns (like the billionaire shareholders Rod was talking about) to actually buy some fairly hefty chunks of stock (not only 2-5K share buys) and that "should" make it much more difficult for the shorts to effortlessly drop it on low volume at will.
Geo
Even that is hard to believe. Now, if this was in Saudi Arabia back in the 40's and the well was at 10-15,000', then yeah, that sounds reasonable. But, keep in mind this field was discovered in 1911, so the formations pressures targeted by TIV and neighbors are greatly reduced. At 500', the intial virgin presssure was only about 225 psi (.45 X 500') and the temp was less than 100 degrees. Heck, its about that hot right now at the beach with these Santa Ana conditions.
4,000 BOPD is reasonable for a bunch of wells (100's?) all pumping away at 1/4 acre spacing (or apparently much less) and periodically being steamed and fraced, but not for one well in this area, especially from a 10-15' deep, or a 10-15' thick oil zone. It doesn't mean TIV can't find that kind of production from deeper drilling exploration into a geo-pressured virgin reservoir ("deeper pool discovery").
Geo
FF, I hate to correct you but 4,000 BOPD (assuming its oil and not water) from a horizontal well at a depth of 8-15' is very hard to believe. At 2000-4000' sure (some presssure, some heat, much lighter grade crude with greater viscosity, etc). Now maybe if they had a convoy of monster skip loaders to mine it and load the asphalt into monster dump trucks and drive the convoy to a monster plant to heat, treat and separate it, maybe they can do 4,000 BOPD. Just kidding you.
Geo
I see it as a waiting game for the shorts. Since TIV's activities have been falling on deaf ears and not attracting the attention of any big buyers, for awhile now, it seems very effortless for the shorts to drop the share price or prevent large runs when the volume is so low. So, they just kick back and do their deeds each day hoping some large long shareholder will get disgusted with how long it is taking and bail out. Since there are no big buyers to drive the price up significantly (ie. over double figures) the shorts are not worried about covering their 3.2 shares any time soon. Just my thoughts on it.
Geo
You sure would think TIV would follow up Friday's "1,500' of Diatomite interval shown on mud log" PR (in so many words) and give us another one describing 1) The results of E-log run (assuming they ran them by now) and/or 2) Did they decide to drill deeper, below planned TD, since the various upper zones in the wellbore appear to be structurally high and highly oil saturated (goes hand in hand).
Sure could use some significant newz to bring in some large scale buying (new blood?) and get us off this anemic buying and continued short manipulation (?) we're seeing.
Geo
I think its combination of things including, a normal adjustment from last week's crater job, word getting out about TIV's PR about the 1,500' of oil saturated Diatomite, maybe the idea of them drilling deeper to explore for much more reserves since they are apparently drilling in a crestal postion, maybe they logged the well and it confirmed the mud log shows or perhaps Wavis' (on Yahoo) announcement last Thursday about the eyeman, Yazd and other big gun buyers stepping in is actually happening (but it sure doesn't look that way from the enemic volume today, although it is up).
Geo
Jonsie, it sounds extremely prudent for TIV to keep drilling deeper since I believe they PR'd that this well is structurally higher than surrounding wells/leases in the area (that's a great thing) with an increased thickness of multiple oil saturated zones. The thinking at this point is if the shallower formations are high and very oil saturated (goes hand in hand) so it makes good sense to believe the deeper formations will also be high and very oil saturated. Whats deeper?? How deep to do you want to drill??? There are potentially prospective horizons down to 25,000', or deeper. Keep in mind, "deeper pool" exploration, which is simply drilling deeper beneath shallow production looking for production under the crest of the structure (like in this case), is the least risky (% wise) type of exploration and has the greatest probability of success. And "exploration success" in deeper horizons is usually much greater in value (daily production, reserves, lighter gravity, gas, etc) than any existing shallow production. If they are under budget, or they have the extra dough to drill deeper, and the well bore is in excellent condition (as determined by a drilling engineer) with very minimal risk of "losing" the shallow oil zones already encountered than I say, keep on drillin!
Geo
According to the DOG field books for the North and South Belridge oil fields, the north has an average net Diatomite thickness of 1350' and the south has an ave. net thickness of 500'. Keep in mind that number is the "net thickness" of the entire Diatomite zone (ie. Diatomite is a rock type), not the "net pay" of the Diatomite zone. When TIV said they are "preparing to log 1,500' of Diatomite interval", that is likely the gross interval which they believe they drilled through based on what they saw (or what mud logger saw) from looking at the cuttings, since they haven't logged it yet with E-logs. Once they log it (tonight?) that gross "mud log interval" number will be refined (upwards? downwards?) based on the much more definitive E-log tools. Then, it will be refined again after "netting out" all non-reservoir rock, which will give a "net thickness" for the Diatomite zone. Then, based on where the oil/water contact is, or are, if there are multiple reservoirs within the Diatomite zone, the geologist will come up with a "net pay thickness" number from which he can estimate flow rates, reserves, etc. So, a rock which has a gross thickness of 1,500' may have a net thickness of 1,300, which may have a net pay (oil saturated) thickness of anywhere from 0' to 1,300'.
I like the fact the well had much more zone thickness than the first well but we have no idea of how much oil is in that 1,500'. DST or production tests showing flowing 30 gravity oil at hundreds of barrels per day sure would be fabulous and timely. Time will tell.
Keep on drilling TIV! Get the grease out!
Geo
Jonsie, you need to put back up the table showing the dates of PR's/AGM and the price of the stock. Didn't a monster drop happen last year too after a "disappointing" (no big announcement) AGM? I would be anxious to see how long it took it to recover after the monster drop, which it always seems to do. Hopefully this time is no exception.
Geo
As you know, I have held this stock for many years and have never swing traded it. Only added to my 10's of k's in low $6's and $7's, like today. Maybe I should rethink that strategy.....
Yes, a bottom line PR, which would get buyer's attention to actually buy a bunch of TIV shares, as opposed to talk about planning to do stuff or overwhelming support, would do wonders. But hey, Boca on the Y board said it will happen "today", so there we go. LOL.
Geo
Jonsie, see anything positive at all about the last 2 days of "pps destruction"? It took us weeks to get it to over $8 and it drops to low 7's in 2 days. How does that work. A lot more sellers than buyers? Man, I was hoping for "short destruction" based on the "no more shares" theory and the "fact" (according to someone on the Y board) about 17-18 mil (right?) shares are held tight by longs who will not sell and a flow rate announcement.
This is just plain ugly and I sure wasn't expecting it! I just saw way too much stuff pointing in the right direction for a major pps run upward into double digits. Didn't it do this last year after the PR about "overwhelming support" by shareholders? Too bad that PR wasn't about flow rates but I imagine its coming. As you said, maybe they have something big up their sleeves and they will report a few months increased DOG production numbers for August and Sept and revise the July numbers upward? We can only hope.
Geo
Sure hope there is some earth shattering stuff announced at the AGM with a simultaneous press release so Monday AM gaps up to double digits on Monday. I really believe it is going to take significant newz and a double digit pps before the shorts get nervous and some major short covering begins. To get all 4(?) mil shares to cover, it will likely take a pps closer to $15. But, as we all know, that is all very possible considering TIV's current and future activities.
Have any of your moles heard anything about the AGM meeting or field trip yet?
Geo
Good morning Jonsie! Out of curiosity, what do you make of that 32,600 on the ASK at $8.00, which obviously was pulled fairly quickly right. And, what is your impression of the current stagnant trading situation we have? No big money buyers excited enough about those 2 PRs to jump in at this point and start the short squeeze? No shares available for the big money buyers to buy? Big money wants to get more "blue light specials"? Shorts still alive and strong and working their magic to prevent a significant run? It seems lately we get an anemic early run up and then the shorts wake up and shut that down real quick and even pull it into the red for most of the day. Then, towards the end of the day, some longs work hard to get it back up a tad.
Well, same ole, same ole, after our early 12 cents run, the shorts gave us red again. Its too bad we can't attract some big money buying, after one of these great PR's, to thwart the short's efforts to drop the pps.
Geo
Cool! Great charting! Thanks!
Looks like another anemic trading day at TIV!
Only 2 days left for the "next week" folks to be finally right "this week".
Geo
Great job on that table, again! I sure hope Lynn announces a series of tangible TIV events which are very significant in increasing shareholder value (like having the stock go up) at the AGM, so Monday AM is a buying frenzy by big money. Something we haven't seen for a long time.
It was interesting to see last year's pps, right before the AGM. It was about $2/share more than it is today and I remember seeing the AGM video of Lynn talking about the shorts and the "rocket fuel" effect. Sure haven't seen any rocket fuel effect yet, other than the Eyeman/Russel/Short cover run. Maybe this year.... It sure is ready to be lit.
Geo
Hello Jonsie! What do make of the current Bid/Ask activity for TIV? Any interesting trends, posturing, accumulating, etc.
I would imagine the next few days, before the AGM, will start looking very interesting. Hopefully "interesting" translates to a nice increase in the pps (i.e. Long power beats short power), which I am expecting it will.
TIA
Geo
Hello Jonsie. I'm not sure where the "Pleasant Valley" (another TIV code name, like Temblor) but I think its in Ventura County and in the Oxnard oil field, or somewhere thereabouts. That's about 15 minutes from my house so I'll have to cruise around to see if anything is happening yet. "Commenced operations" is a pretty loose term in this biz and it can mean going out to bid on services, or filing a permit, or driving to the location. Lessors has been catching on in recent years so many times the wording in the lease actually defines "commencing drilling operations" as actually turning to the right with drilling bit, not building a drilling pad. Otherwise operators would simply move some dirt around on the location and say they commenced operations and the lease would remain in full force and effect even if the primary term ended. Of course in this instance, it is simply the operator saying they "commenced operations" (i.e. not a lease deadline operation) which isn't a legal meaning as in the terms and conditions of an oil, gas & mineral lease. Talking about leases, I own minerals and royalties all over the country and I just may own some where TIV wants to drill, if it is around Oxnard. I'll have to pull some files for my Ventura County mineral ownership. Now wouldn't that be cool!
Geo
Hello Jonsie! Those links you have for oil& gas are probably fine. Keep in mind the WTU price is for 35(?) gravity and is usually not applicable for most California "shallow" crude pricing and needs to be dinged (50 cents?) for certain incremental reductions in API gravity. Of course "Henry Hub" gas pricing gets dinged accordingly for BTU's which are less than 1,000 and certain "transportation", etc, fees.
Sure would like to see a pps increase with strong legs, otherwise the shorts seem to easily work their magic and "ding it" at will, right at the end of the day.
Geo
Good morning Jonsie! Regarding the sales price for TIV's respective grades of crude at Belridge, it would be nice to know who their crude buyer is. Maybe you can email Lynn and he can tell you. Otherwise, it would probably be fine to just use Chevron's crude pricing bulletin, which gets updated daily, weekly, or monthly, depending upon what the price of crude is doing. I would expect right now, with the price of crude dropping everyday by at least a buck, Chevron is sending out updated pricing bulletins every day or two. This bulletin lists all the various grades of crude in California coming out of the various oil fields. I'm sure they have at least one, or two, prices for "Belridge" crude, since it varies greatly with depth/formation. Anyway, I used to be on Chevron's list and get a fax, or email, of the crude pricing Bulletin but I'm not on the list anymore since I don't do oil & gas sales contracts for companies these days, as I did at "certain" companies I worked for in the 90's.
I'll try and get you the name/number of the Chevron buyer so you can get on the bulletin list direct and be able to add that info to your very informative production tables. So, the July production numbers were wrong afterall. It sure sent up a red flag with me when April and July were virtually the same amounts which, as I noted, doesn't happen in "real life".
Incidentally, while you were gone, there was continued talk that "next week", before the AGM, TIV will "pull the trigger" on some great news. The pps is looking good, so far this AM, so maybe it will be...."this week".
Not sure on lifting costs these days.
Geo
Good morning Jonsie!
Those restrictions and filing Rule 144 forms are being lifted as we speak. In fact, the unregistered restrictions for about 10K was lifted this week. Of course I have been adding 10's of k's of free trading shares lately at these low prices so of course there are no restrictions on those shares. The filing is really no big deal other than calling the restricted stock guy at my brokerage house and telling him to re-file the Rule 144 form for another 90 days, if I didn't sell my shares during that time period (which I have not done for many many 90 day periods). As you know, at the end of 2 years of holding the restricted shares, they become free trading anyway and my restricted stock guy just gets the restricted legend language removed. I didn't see it on "Insider trades" list, which we all know is a meaningless list anyway since I am (anyone else?) hardly an insider by definition.
The knowoil guy is correct and we all feel the same way that those DOG numbers are for past production and all the increased production TIV has accomplished through months of reworks and drilling, or so we hear, and all the future operations, are not reflected yet to do the reporting delays. But, as you pointed out, when it is reported, the table will eloquently show those big jumps in monthly production which of course relates to big jumps in cash flow. I'm just hoping we can hear (from a PR) or see (from your table) that big jump in production while we have the shorts "on the run", before they can reload/regroup and work their "magic" to erode the nice little gains we have seen lately. Timing is everything and perhaps there will be something significant before the AGM, as we all expect.
Geo
You can only hope. Timing sure couldn't be better while we have the shorts just starting to think about covering someday. I would say they are still fairly complacent at this point, considerng the price is still only about $7.5 and they seem to be able to get/borrow the shares they need, when they need them, to work their deeds, but at least its in their minds. A nice jolt in price from a PR will get their attention pretty quick.
Geo
That really is great stuff Jonsie! Thanks for the time/work in putting all that data together in an easily readable and update-able format.
When you get the info, do you plan on updating it with the new wells drilled and the reworks actually done based on a PR, or otherwise. It will be very interesting to see how much production increase resulted from the ongoing/multi-well rework program and from the new drill wells. It sure appears the results of those reworks have not yet been reflected in the monthly DOG production figures, as I would imagine there would be significant increases. We know the recent new drill well has not been cleaned up adequately after the frac job and we won't be seeing those production numbers for a month or two (maybe longer), which should also show some very signifcant production increase numbers.
Keep up the good work!
Geo
"good news couldn't come at a better time to keep the momentum going". So much for that concept! Timing is everything and some folks got it and some folks don't. There sure has been ample occasions over the last few months to come out with a great PR (Select spinoff, dividends, prod increases, big cash flow increases, great flow rates) to start that infamous "short squeeze" when the shorts are "scramblin for shares", but they let them off the hook again.
I was surprised too about the weak July production numbers but we have to keep in mind that after the reworks and drilling commences, it takes a few months to realize the increase in production numbers for a full prod month, considering they really didn't start hitting operations hard until probably June.
Do you think today's action is longs bailing or shorts shorting more (i.e they're gettin shares from the loan program?)
Geo
Hello Lefty (I'm a lefty too). My shares are in a cash but they only calculated my income based on my 'Non-restricted' shares, as I have a few 10's of K's which are restricted (unregistered securities). Those restrictions will be lifted soon (end of 2 year holding) so I would be able to add those shares to the already unrestricted shares, if I wanted to loan those as well. It is tempting because I have quite a few 10's of k's of TIV shares and the monthly income would pay my monthly mortgage bill. But, I'm counting on paying off my house and buying one in Cabo if TIV goes up as expected 'soon'. Why don't you call the Director of Lending at Schwab too, as I would be curious of what you are told as to who wants them. I imagine the answer will be vague, wishy washy and non committal.
As far as the frac timing etc, that's really a question for a production engineer, as all my past (25 years) oil biz exploration and production experience has not dealt with frac jobs. Obviously frac jobs and follow up clean up work takes a lot more time (IE. weeks) than simply perforating a gas sand and having it come at you in 5 minutes and have it hooked up to sales in a week (if the sales pipeline is on the drill pad location). Time will tell but the good thing is they are definitely surrounded by good producing wells, in "oil country" and they did find a bunch of oil saturated zones in their first well, in a structurally high point which apparently was higher than originally mapped, so that bodes very well.
Geo
I just got off the phone with the Schwab broker I always deal with and he was very surpised (actually shocked) Schwab was offering me that much (7%) to loan my Tri-Valley shares. He said that was more % than he has ever heard of in the past with Schwab. He said TIV must really (which I can use caps) be in demand!
Geo
Lefty, not sure whether you saw my post on the Yahoo board but I received the exact same docs from Schwab, which they call the "Schwab Securities Fully Paid Program". I was always a bit sceptical about it in the past too, but now I KNOW its a reality!
I called the Director, Howie Kennedy and talked to one of his boyz and asked about who wanted to "borrow" them. He said he was not at liberty to tell me but it could either be for an institution who is shorting this security or one who is long. Why or how could someone borrow shares to go long? That sure seems like a totally unrealistic reply (lie? ignorant? etc).
Anyway, looks like we both received the same docs. I wonder how many others did yesterday or today, or will tomorrow, next week?
Very interesting! Tempting based on TIV's wallowing right now but I'll hold tight. Maybe I can lend the shares and make a bunch each month on loan income and then sell the shares after TIV makes their whoppin announcement and the short squeeze kicks in and the pps goes to $50/share in 2 weeks???
Geo
Good morning Bruce. I checked the D.O.G. web site and out of the 4 "Temblor" (South Belridge oil field) TIV permitted to drill, 3 were classified as "ce" (confidential exploration) and the one they drilled was a development well. I thought that was significant because it appears they are "stepping out" (new fault blocks?, deeper horizons?, new strat. traps?, new truncations?, etc) outside the DOG's "field boundaries" (kind of arbitrary boundary line based on past productive limits of field) to extend the productive limits on their property and more importantly, to greatly increase reportable and recoverable reserves (if they are successful with their wells).
I think the PR misstated the well number and it should be the number permitted, which is 352-30 (that means its in Section 30).
Geodude
Diatomite is a specific sedimentary rock type which is predominantly (>90%) comprised of siliceous (biogenetic) diatoms. Diatoms are the smallest microscopic plants (single celled?) and the "first order producer" in the food chain. Their "test" (name for shell) has many holes in it so the porosity of a diatomite is huge (50%?) and of course much greater than an ordinary sandstone rock, which commonly has porosities in the 15-30% range. So, in order to get the oil to flow out of the rock, you need permeability (interconnectiveness of pore spaces) which in some cases needs to be artificially enhanced by fracing, as in this case. Fracing a shallow diatomite is very routine, not very expensive and very effective. In cases with low gravity oil with high viscosity, a steam job is also performed to help the oil flow nicely. You usually get very strong flush production (50-200 BOPD?) and then dies off to a few barrels per day as the rock cools and the oil is "depleted" from the rock around the wellbore which was affected by the frac job/steam. Then, the operator comes in and hits it again with a small frac and steam and the cycle starts over. Pretty common procedure for this type of rock in this area.
Geo
Oops, sorry, I'll STOP that hence forth! How about this ;O) ?
Geo
Jonsie, my esteemed stock guru, what is YOUR take on the 150K action with no UPWARD price movement? If it was a short "cover" wouldn't the price GO UP substantially because there are NO SHARES AVAILABLE, or so they say?
Crazy!
Geo