Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Congrats to all longs! Thanks to 2Create, strongus, dave
and all the other AURC stalwarts.
DOS, we know they would have certainly agreed to sell the company for .68 but the buyer only came back with a second offer of .55. My impression is that they either settled on a price somewhere between the two figures, or the deal is accepted for .55 with a sweetener of shares in the acquiring company. That would give AURC stockholders a chance to reap the benefits of mining the gold previously owned by Aurus Corp.
I agree, sub. The BOD originally recommended to the shareholders to sell at .68. There is not much interest
in holding out for an offer higher than that by ramping up production, moving to a higher exchange, and so on.
Although the wording of this morning's PR suggested that the final offer was .55, it is possible that a higher price has been negotiated, maybe .60. We'll see soon enough. All eyes are on AURC.
"Is it possible that the last time that AURC will ever trade is today at COB, with the next event of importance being the appearance of cash in our accounts?"
This is a real possibility, especially if the final agreement has been signed and payment has been made in full. It may be the reason why the next PR was promised before the market opens tomorrow. Anyone who wants to take advantage of the
gains to be made here should get in today and not wait to see what tomorrow brings.
If the deal had been abandoned, we would have heard about it today. The reason why I say that is because the content of a press release would not have required approval from the buyer. AURC could have issued it unilaterally, with just a simple explanation of why it didn't happen. The announcement of a deal, on the other hand, must be approved by all parties. There will be more details included and a careful translation into English, all of which takes time.
Tomorrow may still be too early to hear from the company,
especially if they want to see the money before making the announcement. But this week, for sure. All IMHO.
I did the same thing, gold: opened a small position last week
at $1.28 and will add to that this afternoon at around $1.00.
Even insiders are buying at these levels.
By the time our plants open (fall, 2008) the demand for ethanol
will be much greater than it already is today. Each plant will produce 100 million gallons of ethanol in a year. That means each plant will fill 100 railroad cars per week. This will be a huge operation!
2Create -- Is there a chance an agreement has been reached,
that payment has been made, and that AURC has been sold and will no longer be trading? I could see the company not wanting to let those who have been waiting on the sidelines come in now for an easy five bagger, while long term investors who stuck with the company through thick and thin don't do nearly as well.
Thanks 2C for letting us know about AENS. The Board of Directors in the I-box looks like the U.S. Supreme Court.
I bought 1,000 shares this week and will be adding to my position on Monday. With its present market cap and experienced management team, this is the kind of ground floor investment I salivate over. Thanks again, and have a great weekend!
Lochan
If the deal went through, a PR will have to be approved by the legal department of both companies before being released. It will also take time to have it translated into English. There may also be details that still need to be hammered out
that should be included in a PR, so patience is required. Don't fret. We will most likely see a PR on Monday, if not, then Tuesday.
If the deal was not concluded, it may be because the majority shareholders have not yet accepted a bartered price between
.55 and .68. The deadline has passed, but that doesn't mean the deal is dead. Negotiations may continue, but other offers may now be considered as well. It is possible that during this waiting period another party has come forward with a better offer, and Aurus decided not to accept the .55 deal.
Finally, and least likely, is that the BOD has decided to use the financing it has already secured, and will secure, to ramp up production and hold out until a $2 (or higher) bid is made to purchase the company. That could take a year or more, but in any of the above scenarios, the longs are winners.
Go longs!
.
If I closed a deal at 6:00 P.M. on a Friday, I would be going out to celebrate. I wouldn't be sitting down for an hour or two to write a PR. My guess is we see a PR on Monday that the deal was finalized.
This is my read on the PR of 4/24/07: When Aurus made its counteroffer of .68, the BOD was recommending that shareholders accept this as the current value of their shares. If production were fully ramped up over time, shares of AURC could be valued between $2 and $3. The BOD felt that based on their negotiations, the buyer would accept the price of .68. Instead the buyer came back with an offer of .55.
The BOD could not accept this price, convinced that the current value is .68. I think they have struck a deal at .62 with the difference being made up in the form of the stock dividend (10% more shares with the share price discounted 10% from .68 to .62). Will know more hopefully within 24 hours.
If the buyout goes through at .55, my stock dividend is worth
$22,000. I'll take it!!
I've picked up 250K shares with an average cost basis of .052
since the beginning of 2007. At some point, the true value of these shares will be acknowledged, either in a "big integrated" buyout/merger or a listing on a more reputable exchange.
Makes sense to me, too. Wait to make the big announcement until everybody is back on the job after their victory over Hitler celebration is over. I wonder if Aurus expects this to turn into a local media event with newspaper and T.V. coverage.
My buy order at .04 was filled on Scottrade around 2:45 P.M.
Nice support at .04 on low volume today. Looks like a good entry point for newcomers. I need to average down and this is the perfect time to do it.
SR -- very gutsy move, to double your position in NWOG. With
all the positive news anticipated, I think you won't regret it.
I would say the deal is considered done as of the signing, i.e., when contractual obligations become binding as a matter of law.
I would not be surprised if Kartix had been contacted first by Aurus to find them a buyer.
I believe Malyshev and his BOD have decided to make a final
offer of about .62 which should be accepted. That's midway between the .68 counteroffer and the reply offer of .55.
It also gives us a nice tidy buyout price of $200 million.
If Malyshev does not make this compromise offer, that tells me he must have had nibbles from other companies that are willing to pay more. If he lowers his asking price to .62, it means he hasn't.
(All IMO)
The owners want to sell. They don't want to mine.
The buyout offer has come at the right time. I think an accepted deal will be announced before the latest deadline.
That's why it was extended, IMO, not so everybody could relax and stay high for an extra week, but to let them reach a final agreement. With this much money at stake, they don't want to have to release a PR to announce every offer and counteroffer. They just want to see the cash.
Prediction: the next PR will state "deal or no deal".
When we get the audited financials in a month, we will be able
to more accurately calculate the present value of future cash flows. We will then project pps in terms of future earnings with a multiple that is reasonable for this sector.
Along with the AIM uplisting and a few other deals being completed in the next twelve months, according to Mr. Malyshev, we should get up to $1 per share. That might make
some of us happy and rich, while others will be relieved that they did better than just break even.
EIK -- With regard to point number 4, how many shares of NWOG would I have to own to end up happy and rich after the merger with the unknown company referred to below takes place?
<< I would speculate it would be a london based major…>>
Even if this is not one of the majors that’s already listed in London, the following scenario is very possible:
1. NWOG merges with “unknown” into Big Integrated Company.
2. BIC immediately applies for listing in London, hires an accountant (later Nomad) to prepare consolidated financials. reserves, etc. for new company.
3. After London IPO every share of NWOG.PK will be exchanged for ???.?? shares of BIC.L (or cash equivalent), and every share of “unknown” (could be held by private shareholders only) for $???.?? (totaling $80 mln - “merger cost”) plus ???.?? shares of BIC.L
4. NWOG shareholders are happy and rich. :)
EIK wrote: "In Russia when they say 'in Europe' it means 'outside of Russia'. It’s kind of fuzzy, but Ukraine, Poland, Czech, etc. (I would say Eastern Europe or 'former Soviet block') doesn’t fit definition as well."
From the days of Peter the Great.
Two weeks is a long time to wait to make a final counteroffer with negotiations moving at the present pace. If Aurus said today ".60, take it or leave it," the buyer would not have enough time to make its decision before the Russian holiday begins, so Aurus will hold off on making its final counteroffer and see if other potential buyers come forward before May 11. It's a good strategy, but it will likely take our present share price down a notch while we wait. IMO
The company says its shares are worth 2-3 dollars but their
counteroffer was only .68. That tells me they were trying to establish a much higher buyout price from some other company
if the counteroffer of .68 is not accepted. However, they may also end up accepting a slightly lower offer in cash from the current buyer along with a share issuance from the acquiring company to bring the value of the deal up to at least a dollar per Aurus share. Just my intuition.
Thanks, Pasha. I've been in AURC since December, 2005, quietly adding shares over time. My last purchase before today was 25,000 shares at .04 a few weeks ago. If I were the CEO of this company, I would not convene a special meeting of the Board unless I felt the offer was reasonable, we had negotiated the best possible price we could expect to get from this particular buyer, and I knew the majority of the members of the Board would approve the deal.
Yes, very likely that .38 was the initial offer and that
they negotiated a slightly better deal. But I believe that whatever the final price, the deal is done. That's why I bought 25,000 more shares at .09 this morning.
The company had planned to be bought out since its inception.
With the acquisition of Krong, the assets were in place to get
a reasonable offer. To close the deal, the company needed audited financials and confirmation of its mineral assets from the Ministry.
I suspect that lower offers were made in the past, but that the officers of the corporation considered the
present offer to be the most reasonable. IMO, they have already concluded their negotiations to get the best offer from this buyer. Now the BOD has to sign off on the deal.
I think Aurus did not want to do the mining of these minerals themselves, but they had to show prospective buyers that the
mining could be done successfully.
I would pay about $2.1 billion for a company with $8.5 billion
in unmined assets confirmed by the Ministry. I would also sell at that price. Then I would still be a billionaire after taxes.
I agree that with an inventory of precious metals valued
at $8.5 billion, an offer in the $3-4 range would not be sufficient to induce the Board of Directors to attend a special meeting. My belief is that the buyout offer is in the
vicinity of $7/share which the officers would find attractive enough to seriously consider and which would allow the buyer to make a great enough profit on the sale of the minerals.
Reading between the lines of the PR, I would say that the deal is practically a lock, and that the Board
of Directors is being convened to vote for and sign the final draft on Tuesday. Just my opinion though.
It will probably be another month before NWOG announces a date
for the release of its audited financials. That will be a turning point for this company. From there we go to fully reporting and an uplisting onto the OTC:BB. And the deal with SNG should be completed while negotiations with Syria are being
finalized, all in the coming months.
While waiting thirty days for the first of these announcements,
we could easily see the pps drop some more and settle around .03. But once the PR's begin, NWOG is upward bound.
We have been in contact with the auditing firm and they
denied an end of April release of audited financial statements. Their reply was that a complex audit that includes the first quarter of 2007 could never be completed that quickly. I have made this point here a few times myself, so
I accept this company as the real deal. We will have our AFs,
and that will allow us to determine NWOG's true value. It will establish their credibility in the marketplace and push the pps to a more reasonable level. The next four weeks could be a little depressing though, but a great time to buy!
OT: We saw the price of AURC drop to .04 just two weeks ago
and it is now at .12 on news of a possible cash buyout. Similarly, I expect NWOG to double its current price by the end of May and get back on the winning track (but without the announcement of a buyout offer). All IMO.
Thanks, strongus, for the positive input. These estimates
sound a bit conservative and consider only NWOG's present assets. I do not believe the company will entertain a buyout offer of less than $1 billion, which it will most likely deserve in a year or two if it succeeds in its planned acquisition attempts. The majority shareholders will prefer
to wait for the greatest possible Return on Investment.IMO
Good report, strongus
I don't expect the company to entertain a buyout offer
until it has achieved its projected milestones in 2007.
This looks like the best opportunity to buy more shares
of NWOG, hold for a year and get the benefit of a huge
multi-bagger on a buyout.
EIK, I like this timeline: Audit to be completed end of May.
NWOG to become fully reporting in June (my opinion). Business
being run profitably, as usual, thanks to organic growth using new technologies. Syria and SNG deals still on the table.
I'm tempted to buy another 50,000 shares at these prices for long term capital gains.
Thanks, EIK.
Eik wrote:
"I was actually surprised that they reduced long term debt (almost paid it off completely). It’s kind of unusual, and I was speculating about some positive scenarios, when company prefers to be debt free. So, I asked Maria about this and the answer was simple – those loans have just expired and had to be paid off."
Long term debt is reclassified on the balance sheet as a current liability when it has to be paid off within one year. That is why current liabilities are now $5 million, not that the company liquidated its long term debt entirely. Current liabilities also increase when the company does not pay bills when they come due, and this happens especially at the end of the fiscal year if the company wants to show greater profits.
Thanks, strongus. Please ask Maria if you or Eik could call weekly for updates. We are very much indebted to you both for pressing on despite the attempts of many to demoralize us longs. Good luck getting through.
rover_az -- I got your PMs and now understand the origin of the negativity and cynicism on this board. BTW, current
liabilities of $5 million are nothing to sneeze at. Keep up the good work.
It's Lochan, my man, and anyone who has a positive suggestion
is welcome, no matter how dumb it sounds.
I'll let you know when I get through.
Yes, as CEO she must have many responsibilities.
That will be real difficult for me, to call at 1:00 A.M., 3:00 A.M. and so on, especially as we are approaching the tax deadline next week. I'm all tied up until the 17th.