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SloJon...
"Some traders walked away w/ approx $47k."
Congratulations on your good fortune. Gloating, however, at the expense of longs who have put up with years of sh*t, does not become a man. You'll keep friends longer if you refrain from rubbing it in their faces, deliberately or otherwise. It has been a difficult day for many of us.
Just a hunch. Never really seen a quick reversal from a selloff on a stock whose anticipated news was long overdue. I think a lot of longs are tired of the wait, and were shell-shocked by today's results.
Steel yourselves now...
This stock is going lower. Mid .60's or lower tomorrow. (IMHO)
Oooooooh! What fun!!
Long time accumulator. I was hoping to have a chance to "sell into strength" a small percentage of my shares, but as you can see all we get nowadays is "buying opportunities". I was really hoping for $1-1.50 on the news. I will wait for a week or two and see what transpires.
I'm not asking for the moon...but is it too much to ask for a "green" day the first day after having been awarded one of the most prolific stakes in petroleum history? The way it is progressing, we will probably touch the .60s before the .80s.
We've gone RED...
And I waited 11 months for this? Hmmmmmm
Prediction...Menezes will be re-elected!!!!
Someone pinch me...em
Elsie, I agree with you, that Menezes is in the Trovoadas hip pocket, but read carefully what Patrice says about Fradique:
“I should say that each leader has his own temperament,” he replied vaguely. “Obviously, we have different ways of exercising power.”
What I believe Patrica was saying was that Freddie gets out of his cage every now and then.
Obasanjo is looking to get Nigeria on the U.N. security council. This would be a jewel in his crown. He can ill afford being embarrassed by Gilligan's Island. IMHO, Menezes will sign soon.
It's funny to see how obvious Menezes is being toyed with by the Trovoadas...and even Fradique realizes that he's just the stand-in guy! And this is an article that paints ERHC and the Nigerians as the dark and sinister types (sorry, no pun intended). It speaks nothing about the manipulative Trovoadas. Of course, that reflects the normal liberal spin of the New Yorker.
Old 2002 New Yorker human interest article that should be a part of everyone's DD. It remains very enlightening, and gives a great feel for the sleepy and impovershed island nation and it's colorful leadership. Fradique actually comes across as a regular Joe doing what he can after having been "nudged" into service by the Trovoada boys, and Patrice seems more like a pimp than a politician.
I also loved the part where Fradique hosted the dictators from neighboring Gabon and Equatorial Guinea. It's a hoot...straight out of Hollywood.
http://www.newyorker.com/printables/archive/030728fr_archive02
Excellent poinr. If one were to pay every citizen of Sao Tome $100, you'd only be out $15,000,000. Chump change for Nigeria, or even Exxon for that matter. Heck! Even Offor could come up with that amount in a day or two!
OT (But interesting story on a major player in this game...)
Obasanjo: Leading Africa to the Security Council
http://www.vanguardngr.com/articles/2002/world/w125052005.html
My apologies if this has been posted earlier.
ranco, how about this...
The marxist-leaning South Africans, in fear of losing their power broker status is Africa to a strong Nigeria, is supporting the marxist-leaning San Tomeans in the scuttling of the awards process. This is done in order to make Obasanjo look bad and create instability in Nigeria. This may answer the question as to why groups loyal to South Africa were involved in the coup attempt.
Some have alluded to this all along...I think. ;^)
Gig, if push comes to shove....
Then my money is on EHRC.
1. The U.S. NEEDS oil. Which means if the source is the Gulf of Guinea, then it needs to be politically stable. Who else can provide that stability? Does the U.S. see Obasanjo as the stabilizing force in that region, even if he chooses to not step down at the end of his term? Certainly, the loss of Obasanjo without a strong political heir would cause all sorts of havoc in the region. Is someone being groomed, or will Obasanjo be asked to stay on? Who knows? Maybe the opposite is the case. What if the U.S thought Obasanjo was too much of a force in the region, and thinks that he can't be counted on to be loyal to Western interests. Is this why some entity floated that U.S. military evaluation report about Nigeria's imminant demise? Maybe it's part of the our plan for greater involvement (see Irag).
2. Why would a former U.S. ambassador become involved with an otherwise unknown "minnow" if he didn't think that there was some implicit backing by his former employer?
Of course, all this is speculation. ;^)
Thanks, Rancho...the plot thickens!
Rancho, was that your 9:49 post on Joe's blog?
Though somewhat vague, it sounds mighty interesting. Can less than 100% of a block be awarded? If the indies were left off, could that be an exceptable scenario to the San Tomeans?
Why do you continually do this? Is this some deep seated need to be the center of attention. Stop playing coy and tell us what you know, or STFU (excuse my French). It's not necessary to dangle a carrot in front of us.
I am not angry. I respect your abilities and connections, but am tired of constantly being toyed with. I have $100K on the line here, and to one degreee or another depend on people like yourself. I have enough trouble with the obvious manipulators. Not that your word is sancrosant, but it is another piece in the puzzle for me.
Top of the Morning! ERHCers! What say we get rich today!!!
Though other boards are devolving into food fights on this wonderful morning, I wanted to take the time on this gorgeous day to thank our wonderful hosts, chcr, balance builder, and gigwoof. And many thanks to all who contribute and make this board a pleasure.
Well, we better get this show on the road quick like...JoeBlog is now saying that the U. S. Military is predicting that Nigeria will become EXTINCT in about 15 years. Maybe that's why the JDA preferred "fast tracking" companies! ;^)
One positive about all these delays...
Short-term capital gains tax isn't going to be a problem.
That corn has got to be 6 feet tall. That means this picture was taken in August. MAC...you would have to have been in since August, and possibly much longer since the dabilitating effects of ERHC ownership take time to develop.
When does "spin" become a fabrication? Joe Shea seems to love to push the envelope.
Deceivers have agendas, and are shut out from any organization (business, church, government...even family) that wants to grow and prosper.
Remember the movie, Papillion? Sometimes you gotta supplement your soup with bugs in order to survive. Dimka reports, in hindsight, may not have been altogether accurate, but they sure were timely on at least one occasion when my finger was on the sell trigger. I appreciate, as you also do, markvols dogged persistance and optimism.
The Sangamon river runs through central Illinois; the state in which I was born and raised.
It may appear that I am condescending toward the San Tomeans, but my perspective reflects what I have learned about Olesegun Obasanjo. When I first invested in ERHC, someone did investors a huge favor by posting a short biography of Obasanjo on the RB board. (I think it was Rancho or Walldog). That post, more than any other, helped cement my belief that Emeka Offor could pull off the near impossible. Whenever I begin to doubt, I always return to the who, what, where, when and why of the central characters involved in this story. I am more convinced now than at any other time, that Obasanjo is everything, and everybody else is nothing.
Without Obasanjo, there is no Offor. Without Offor, there is no ERHC. Without ERHC, there is no Sao Tome.
To paraphase the psalmist...
"What is man [Patrice Trovoada], that you are mindful of him?"
IMHO, the thought that this 2-bit politician from Sao Tome carries any more weight than the flesh that hangs on his frame is nothing short of comical.
If the hang-up in the process are the inexperienced Nigerian "indies" as some have said, Nigeria still holds the upper hand. Are the San Tomeans complaining? Obasanjo throws them a bone by dumping one or two of the "indies". Maybe these companies were to be used as "trial balloons" from the get-go. The end result: All parties win. Menezes (Obasanjo's man) looks good for having stood up to the heavy handed Nigerians, the San Tomean opposition looks good for having put up a stink for the good of the country, and Nigerian still gets the bulk of what they wanted in the first place.
The only losers, and temporarily at that, are the shareholders in the various winning firms.
I can wait a little while longer.
BB...Agreed!
This whole process is about "saving face" as Patrice Trovoada was alledged to have said in Homeport's last post. No one wants to be seen as the "loser". And Obasanjo has the political skills to make sure that doesn't happen.
My reference to the movie "The Mouse that Roared" was intended to show the absurdity of claims that somehow Sao Tome was controlling the process.
There is a 3rd option....
The government of Sao Tome has enlisted the services of the Prime Minister of the Duchy of Grand Fenwick.
I can see it now. Obasanjo greets Menezes with a bear hug and a kiss, but whispers in his ear....
"Fredo, you're my older brother and I love you, but don't ever take sides with anyone against the family again. Ever."
"Sign off on the awards or there is a rowboat trip in your future!"
"We are waiting on Sao Tome and Principe's authorities to distribute the money", he said, indicating that the lacking signatures referred to the JMC awards decision on five blocks taken in Abuja at the end of April.
You can call it exerting undue influence.
You can call it arm-twisting.
You can call it whatever you want.
I call it inevitability.
You're right about this stock being unconventional. Of course, I hope that at least one bit of conventional wisdom remains true: A company's true value is eventually reflected in a rising share price.
Rancho - Do you write cliff-hanger serail novels for a living, or what? What are you speculating?
Like I said earlier, this money is Obisanjo's trump card.
From the beginning Nigeria held all the cards, and the San Tomeans were being asked to play ball with Africa's "bad boys". Sort of like asking a Class A minor league outfit to take on the Yankees. Nigeria has all the oil experience, all the oil money. Why should it seem strange that the Block 1 monies ended up in a Nigerian controlled bank? Heck, Nigeria could have paid every Sao Tomean $100 in influence money and still only invested $15 million.
But despite all the lop-sidedness of the process, it will be Obisanjo who will be seen as the great statesman. Having controlled the process from the get-go, he has the luxury to allow the San Tomeans their 2 weeks of limelight. When all the bluster is done, Obi comes and closes the deal. He truly is one of modern Africa's greatest political leaders. Not many can do what he has done.
My mistake. I said Offor, but I meant President Obisanjo. I can easily imagine the kind of influence he may have over this bank. The kind of leverage he might be willing to exercise if worse came to worse.
Maybe this is Offor's trump card.