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Pat- if you look at the amount, it basically says tsa can re-outfit the entire fleet. Have to wait and see if they issue a competing idiq to other etd makers.
The first order will come very fast as the TEDs contract shows an early '15 roll out and onto the line. Could be a 30-45m dollar event.
Anyway it happens, the stock just took a huge de-risking event and will turn that into a rapid growth event. Remember, tsa issued a 2 m dollar grant for further product development. So the future is getting so bright I may have to wear welder's shades!
Best of Better Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
That is exactly what the shorts are doing. But they play a losing game as time is now on IMSC's side. As news spread the bid is going to go thru the roof. So the shorts throwing 100 share lots on the ask side are counting on NOT MUCH awareness. This is a mistake.
Follow on news likely: first order from tsa for this idiq could easily top 20m dollars and could be as much as 50m dollars.
Today was a large de-risking day for all long term shareholders as the future of the IMSC was set. This company is going to be around for a long time or a short time. We'll see but either way, very positive events will unfold like moth turning into an eagle!
Best of Better Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
What conversation? It was a meeting of the congenital unbelievers club.
Somebody moved a mountain, did they not?? Come on, all you carpers, pony up to the bar and buy some drinks.
Best of Even Better Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS
Nice work IMSC team! The world is your oyster!
Best of Better of all the BEST LUCK to all IMSC LONGS!
B9- agreed. But why has nothing changed? Why hasn't tsa mandated changes to the lists they publish if in fact IMSC would have caught that but OTHER etds would not? I don't know the answer to that.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Nowak-- you point to the right answer, then ignore that answer to shift to blame on the company. Not sure that is the best way to view things.
Facts:
- mandated cargo screening volumes changed. ( lessened greatly)
- mandated approved etd units on the cargo list were extended.
- mentioned tsa passenger purchase plans changed ( mid-sept14 etd purchase of 560 etd units, then an oct. 14 idiq changed)
Conclusions:
- its still early in the post-qpl buying cycle
- cargo and passenger approved etd units are now aligned ( meaning a unit on one won't expire before the same unit expires on the other)
- I still expect tsa to purchase etd units that the TEDs contractors will install
- I still expect tsa to issue an idiq to IMSC and possibly another etd maker.
- IMSC is still the platform of choice to develop contact and non-contact etd units for tsa and cargo markets use.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Zey-- again to your question, it appears that tsa has extended out the Smith's/Morpho units cargo approval to 2016 while also asking for product changes to those units for post 2016 use. Additionally, tsa appears to be thinking of IMSC's non-contact etd technology to couple with current mili-wave/ x-ray other ait techologies for use at baggage-checkpoint and cargo.
Think about the cargo sector, first off congress said 100% of all cargo must be screened. You can imagine the amount of swabbing that would take and still get the packages shipped on time. So tsa went to Congress and said, we don't have a tech solution at this time to easily screen 100% of packages. ( the shipping market also went to congress with their concerns)
Additionally, doesn't congress want tsa to use random screening like we do at passenger for cargo. Tsa's orders were changed and cargo went from 100% etd/ait screening to a much lower percent. You can tell that the terror-think caught that subtle change when they tried to ship a laser printer bomb to the usa from the mid-east. But what stands out at the end of that was this: intell caught the bomb, not tech. screening. A new need was born, imo, after that incident. That's how I see it but who the heck knows, things change like the weather where the tsa is concerned.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Zey- you ask a very legitimate question. But note, they just made a huge sale AFTER the S. Korea sale.
I think what would serve the company is to issue real descriptions for the terms they use and a status on those terms. I believe there is a market, however, that market changes and goes inactive, then flips to ON and then OFF. The only known bit of market sizing for etd pointed to a 3 year window for that market. While that seems vague, its even worse than vague as it could go away or it could cascade sooner or it could happen in the last year of that period.
What drives sales:
- threat innovation, growth and proximity
- new tech developments
- regulations from authorities
Consider R REID, tried to blow up his shoe...tsa went hyper and bought etd puffer booths from GE and Smiths before they were totally tested ( approved). THEN trace was determined as the only way to catch an RR plus, take off those shoes for x-ray at passenger.
Then tsa was beaten over the head with the puffer fiasco by auditors. Would tsa act the same again? I believe it would but I also believe it has developed a deeper bench to use against the current threat-scape. Just my opinion, but until someone convinces me I am missing the correct view point, I am sticking with it.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Sure, a landslide because the private sector would go ape, call their congressman and vetch till the cows come home. Surely you realize that THAT would easily happen. And surely you see how tsa is then caught in the middle of that crossfire and a legit crossfire at that.
I can't say I know this for a fact, but the only other explanation is the company lied and created a false sense of an active-available market all the while knowing there was NO active-available market. Corp. suicide might be the best label to put on that.
But if I am missing the situation, by all means let me know what the possible alt. explanations maybe.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
B9- I think it was the worry over a mis-perception, ie, tsa removes all Smiths Morpho etds from cargo list but NOT from passenger list means what? There would have been a landslide of concern.
Secondly, tsa may have looked at market turmoil that a Jan14 deadline would have meant in june of 13 or whenever they made their fateful decision. I.E. could IMSC have produced the amount of units needed to completely replace the in use cargo fleet? Not saying this is a fact, just an idea or perception that affects their thinking. Remember, ceo Bolduc took action to move IMSC to a larger facility and I think his reason addresses that incorrect thinking by tsa, if that was THE reason.
One might ask, why would the tsa approve any NEW unit onto the approved cargo list if they were satisfied with the last two approved units on the cargo list?
I ask this question because I believe Smith's and Morpho were able to update their substance library via a software change/update. But NOT their resolution, so the tsa was left with a decision to make, they made it NOT in IMSC's favor but in favor of market stability. Remember, you remove those last two etds from the cargo list, the shipping industry would have been on the phone very quickly asking why remove them for cargo but use them for passenger? ( can you see this point, because I believe it to be significant)
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
B9- I hear what you are saying about cargo sales, but tsa is the controlling authority over whose products remains on the etd-approved list for cargo use. Prior to IMSC's approval, they showed 4 units, 2 from Smiths and 2 from Morpho to expire. Tsa changed that to mandate only 2 of those 4 to end their placement on the cargo list. Between the time they approved IMSC and changed the cargo list, IMSC went to work developing demos and presentations and sending quotes, then in one administrative action, tsa closed that market to outside sales by letting those last two machines stay on the list.
Do you honestly think this company would hold a special conf. call in april of 2013 to lie to the world about the cargo opportunities they had AT THAT TIME? My god that would be monumentally dangerous and quite stupid. Dan Small from DRMJ asked Dr. Jones about the cargo opportunity...do you think DMRJ would say: yep they lied, lets keep funding them.
Seriously, ask yourself who the problem is with etd sales and it always comes back to the buyer- regulator and that is never going to change.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Zey- bruker's product may be the 4 th etd tested by tsa but I don't think they made qpl. Oh well, they must have a really bad sales guy if they can't make the tsa's qpl, right?
Your issue with Dr. Jones is actually with tsa AND not the company in the slightest. IF tsa and capabilities produce public info that states an etd purchase will made mid-sept and an idiq will be executed in oct and when those don't happen, you right away blame Dr. Jones-- sorry but that is NOT the way it works. This company has provided the best information given to them by tsa.
Further, while tsa buys some forty percent of etd equipment and influences another forty percent of other purchases of etd units, we have no choice than to abide by their schedule no matter how often they change it or their minds. Obviously the Smith's and Morpho sales guys are not changing tsa's mind either.
Not to re-hash the cargo trap door, but tsa changed its mind there also, thus removing the opportunity. Have faith in ceo bolduc because if anyone on this planet knows how vital sales and marketing are to IMSC, it would be him and I believe he would make changes if he felt there was the slightest need to do so. But this is just my opinion and not worth much.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
B9- expandable threat library is one thing, which ceo Bolduc pointed to, but I think Dr. McGann's point as to "resolution" or better stated, IMSC's B-220 offers the highest resolution available is a more telling comment. If IMSC can detect trace at 1 part per trillion and Smith's can only find the trace if it is present at 2 parts per trillion, obviously IMSC has a nose that is twice as good forcing the bomb-maker to be much more diligent. ( I used "trillion" for example only). The greatest threat, in my opinion, is the education, evolution and innovation of and by bomb-makers.
I think the elk steaks in my freezer get better treatment than most of the stuff coming out of the middle east but that is just a guess.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Tsa-OIG pegs the value of ETD units stored in the warehouse at about $34,000 each. So right there is a key insight ( would have been a key insight back in July) as to what Smith's500 unit pricing was.
Another key revelation was safety stock or lack of enough safety stock. This is extra-odd considering tsa had funds to purchase "safety stock" etds but chose not to. Could this be the nuclear material issue or the outdated resolution issue or just a drop thru the admin. crack inside tsa...?
I don't know, but I will guess, tsa's undies go bunchy when they hear an "inspector" is on the way to facility 123.
Discussion regarding TEDs contract- I assume tsa will allot some lead time from purchase of new etd units to "etd units now at tsa and available for distribution" time frame. If that is true, a 3 month window would seem reasonable if the initial order amount matched CAPABILITIES div. note showing 560 etd units to be purchase in mid-sept.14.
If IMSC sold those 560 units at the OLD Smith's pricing of 34K/unit we get a nice round number of 19M$. My guess was always 35K/unit so its close enough for gub. work. LOL.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
B9- they have at least 120M$ for an etd passenger unit refresh. Heck, they have been talking about since 2012 so you would think that it is past time to refresh the passenger line. And for the life of me, I cannot see them refreshing with more of the same. Worn out equipment is one thing, but highest resolution etd machines is another and that is IMSC's sweet spot.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
- re: layers/quasi layers. Tsa used a puffer booth ( etd) as a full on layer to screen passengers for explosive trace. In other words, like the metal archway, you walked into the puffer booth, jets of air shot up around you, that air was ionized for explosive trace. The booth was a full on layer that every passenger had to go thru. Much like the metal archway and the passenger carry on x-ray...full layer that everyone was subjected to.
Currently tsa uses trace as a sort of a supplement layer; not everyone is swabbed. Random passengers are, suspect passengers are, passengers refusing pat down are, suspicious carry on items are-- but NOT everyone nor everything. Why not everyone-- it would take far too much time and severly limit thruput.
But you can imagine a hand held unit or another version of a puffer booth using etd to its best possible benefit. Additionally, I believe every piece of passenger baggage will be sniffed.
Further to this point, you can well imagine the stress experienced by the swab-squad in the back room of a cargo facility. Non-contact solutions are needed. IMSC supplies or will supply those solutions.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
DocD- I think he was referring to two types of budget lines that tsa had been approved to spend within one budget year. Cap-x is vital so I think that's what ceo bolduc was referring to.
Capabilities office did circulate a widely viewed deck that showed tsa purchasing 560 etd units in the middle of sept.'14. The same deck also mentioned a follow on idiq for etd to be executed in October of 14. I would find it very incredulous for them to point to that IF they didn't have a line for that. ( maybe tsa has created a new meaning for the word "capable"?)
I believe IMSC will still receive an order from tsa and fairly soon. The size of that order will be specified thru an idiq so the not to exceed amount will be interesting as will the date of expiration which has to run thru 2016 at least.
Tsa has proven that it can be turned around by it's key vendors. Look at what tsa did to IMSC in the etd approved cargo expirations. That was what I call an exorcist moment as it turned alot of heads one hundred and eighty degrees.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
B9- my vision for the future is a return of etd as a real layer in tsa's scheme. The last time etd rose to this level of reliance, it turned out to be a fiasco. The tsa received multi-black eyes over their puffer booths and just like that, etd was down regulated back to being a support layer. Then cargo rose in prominence or I should vulnerability and just like that, etd became a quasi layer backing up imaging machines.
The big challenge is automating explosive detection platforms. I believe that IMSC has several key advantages in their portfolio that make they more vital in tsa's planning. The two million dollar grant to IMSC for r and d supports that. Tsa could have saved those two million dollars by buying one hundred and twenty million dollars worth of QS-B220s but that is yet to be determined. I know if I was planning at tsa, the idiq for IMSC would be over one hundred and twenty million dollars and it would have been signed by now, but, IMSC's purchase is traveling in the eds basket, in my view.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Thanks for posting that. Interesting to see that Smith's600 is exactly where I believe it to be, in development but without a quality data package as of yet. They have to collect that data and submit it to tsa before tsa will even test their machine. That unit is IMSC's closest competitor for "passenger" sector sales. But nothing is secure in this space. The tsa can change at any minute and those changes have huge reactions in any sector they occur in.
I think we all have seen the TEDs solicitation and know that tsa intends to install new eds equipment and new etd equipment. From where I see things, I cannot see tsa buying anything but IMSC equipment for passenger use. I see at least 3 possible levels of sales occuring, but again, tsa can change in a moment's notice.
They could purchase a few hundred IMSC QS-B220 units, the could purchase 500 to 600 IMSC QS-B220 units or they could issue an idiq for a 3 year period to cover upto 3000 units ( doesn't mean they have to purchase all 3000).
But if you look at the "nba" ( next best alternative) action by tsa, the only place their etd purchases can go, at this time and certainly in my view, is with IMSC for a multi year many unit purchase, which tsa will likely impliment over time, which gives Smith's 600 unit a chance to gain certification while it allows IMSC to stabilize itself financially.
What I believe competitors have used against IMSC is its viability due to its capital structure/debt. But on the other side of this is Dr. McGann, the "father" of trace detection. He brings significant credibility to IMSC and their R-D efforts. That is obvious due to tsa signing cradas with IMSC. What is incredible is this: tsa signed a crada for QS-B220 for cargo, it passed and was lauded as a fantastic machine for cargo. Then, in a bit of head twisting, tsa decides to NOT remove the latest Smith's-Morpho products from the cargo list which effectively re-locked up the cargo market for a period of time.
I am still hopeful, but as has happened with cargo, the big multi-nationals can be very persuasive in their dialogues with tsa. Truthfully, tsa must listen to what the market is speaking or even coughing up. It has no choice.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Zey- I want to know if we had a shot at this order, or if it was precontracted or part of a prior contract. ( replacement of prior Morpho etd units like the United Airlines "deal"). THIS is important to know.
Sure, I am not happy to see a single sale go to anyone other than IMSC. But the devil is in the details that are NOT in the PR. Dr. Jones had to be on top of this, IF we had any kind of chance to compete. But we may have been actually competing with a contract designed by Dr. Jones when he was at Morpho. Anyway you slice this, its NOT a good thing to hear. But to think Dr.Jones blew another sale prior to hearing the details of the deal does not make sense either.
If it was an open competition, Its in the client's interest to engage all 3 etd makers and throw a "knife" into the room and see who cuts the price fastest and deepest. I will say this, I believe they bought an inferior machine, so in my opinion, there must be an explanation. But I support IMSC, Dr. Jones, Dr. McGann and CEO Bolduc so will reserve disappointment until hearing the details.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
B9-- most excellent snippet of information. Thank You!
Best of Luck To ALL IMSC LONGS!
Corner 3 - to your post I will add this, if IMSC is rolled into the ditch by these big foreign multi-nationals, I intend to go to Congress with my message AFTER which I will go to "60Minutes" with the facts as I know them. To be sure, I will get the public facts and I will hone my message until it has the voice of nation. I love capitalism but we have a serious problem when a US company competes and wins and then loses because somebody in D.C. is afraid to stand up for what is right and smart and a better product--ESPECIALLY-- when our security is on the line, The Passenger Line in every U.S. Airport.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Doc D- More $ to the House-- that's a laugh. If they were money ball players, they would really be in the mix in the Senate because that control is likely to shift. Go to 538.com and you can get a sense of the odds.
They had offices in MA or CT (?) , so that sort of make senses but the extend of their grease is not significant. But as you point out, they are in the game.
Its a funny thing though, if you put a congressman under, give "it" truth serum and ask: do you work for contributors or constituents they will mumble " both of them", I just return the phone calls of contributors first.
I find it very disgusting when companies owned outside the U.S. can sway U.S. political events.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
HC- you made me laugh. Thanks for that.I mean that in the best sense.
I do get passionate about what I believe in, but that usually gets you the "grenade", so I honestly try to throughly evaluate an investment and this one is very risky. One statement I try to rely on is exactly what a surgeon thinks about before he cuts you open: First, Do NO harm.
If anything I have said makes no sense, then everything I have researched regarding my investment into IMSC is dead wrong. While I don't thinks it is, I will say this: the jury is still at lunch.
Yes, I am nervous. And this could certainly end very very badly which would be a bitter pill for me to swallow.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Doc D-- you have pointed to exactly what I believe is going on. Go back and read the April 2013 special conference call regarding IMSC's cargo sales. Investors were carping and with great concern. The call indicated that many sales events were very live and likely. Then the cargo cert. list changed, which killed IMSC's cargo sales.
Am I the only one that has seen what has transpired? Many investors here act like IMSC cannot sell a foot warmer to an eskimo at 99% off list.
For tsa to roll over at the feet of the giants would only tell the giants to "stay lazy" but keep the lawyers well fed, we'll keep using them. This is especially dangerous in the face of a growing threat that is going outside the box and developing new angles of attack.
The counter for a Giant's lawyer is a congressman, somebody has to call b.s.- BS!
Best of Luck To ALL IMSC LONGS!
Nowak- consider your supposition- McGann is the tsa point man. Is he failing to detect events coming out of the tsa? Is McGann failing us?
I do NOT think Dr.McGann is failing. I see him and Dr. Jones trying and creating and moving IMSC prospects forward and placing IMSC in a great position--but--IMSC was there before, in a very similar position after they received cargo certification. Then, the giant multi-nationals did what they do when they don't have a competitive product, they conjure up a mix of fear and doubt and inject that into the market and into tsa's thinking.
The total risk factor in this stock, Smiths and Morpho up-end IMSC's potential idiq opportunity and push the company into bankruptcy with implied actions, for instance, you buy from IMSC and we leave the etd space, where will that leave the tsa then...it is a wicked game they play.
My guess, tsa delivers an idiq to both IMSC and Smiths. They buy from IMSC first as they wait for Smith's 600 to move through the certification process. Then, they buy the better machine in greater quantity through the end of the idiq period.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Doc D- yep to everything you post. It is so very true. My congressman will be angry when he sees what has transpired, all of which are occuring against a growing-morphing threat that is getting more desperate for results every day. And we dither and play the administrative games, against our will, but for the multi-nationals benefit.
My sense was: capabilities was tasked with bringing a business approach to the hap-hazard method dhs-tsa appeared to be operating under. ( review the puffer booth fiasco) But somebody forgot to give that arm a bicep. Further, the big multi-nationals seem to know how to throw their weight around at the expense of a small company like iMSC. A giant is bad enough, a giant with sharp "eyesight" and a temper is dangerous. Add a second giant and its a very tough place for IMSC to get past and onto the idiq train.
However, the TEDs solicit is more than etd, its eds. And eds is a much higher priority than etd and of course much harder to install so I think they could place refreshed etd gear very quickly while they remove-store old eds gear. But hell, who knows. I do expect that ceo bolduc will provide a map in our upcoming conference call. I am still hopeful but certainly not buying shares at this point.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Zey- I am NOT happy in the slightest about our debt, our sales and our weak position against the giants in this sector. For crips sake, I am trying to give you and every other investor my insights as to what I think is happening.
You make a great point- IMSC has stellar products. At this point in time, much better than the competition. And at this point in time, likely to gain a contract with tsa. As I expressed, how large a contract is my #1 question, #2 would be how long, #3 would be how soon.
But go back to your basis: best product- terrible sales results, but the only tangible sales occuring in the space. Don't you think that anyone should be able to sell the BEST product? Of course you do. Most naturally assume that to be true. So why isn't IMSC selling more?
I will swear to god that if Steve Jobs were alive, he would NOT be able to change sales. He was the best presenter - salesman I ever saw. But jobs would turn in the same IMSC scorecard. But my guess would be that Jobs would quit while Dr. Jones would not.
Sorry to continually beat this dead horse, I will not continue to do so.
Best of Luck To ALL IMSC LONGS!
Pat- I hear you, you are unhappy but neutral and desirous of more information about why I said what I said. At the end of this discussion, I can only guess that IMSC would be much weaker without him and I am guessing that Dr. McGann would not be happy to see him go.
Further, this is my second guess, I don't think there is a better man for the job on this planet.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
nowak- did you read the passages taken from the april 2013 special conference call I posted? Dr.Jones and ceo Bolduc were BOTH excited over cargo market developments as they were sending tenders all over the planet. The reason, the cargo market was operating under tsa's expiring deadlines for smiths and morpho etds and IMSC had the newest certification.
THOSE deadlines were changed and their closest-likely market evaporated with tsa's change.
Your supposition was the Dr. McGann was the one that knew the tsa, that it was his domain but he didn't know that change was coming either. This, to my mind was THE issue.
Consider Dr. Jones statements to IMSC's lender within that same conference call. If you and I were disappointed over these events, and disappointment would be an understatement on your part, imagine how upset DMRJ was, I think at that time, the outstanding balance was between 20 and 30million dollars.
You want to fire Dr.Jones, but DMRJ didn't ask to have him removed. Only possible reason are what I presented and which by the way, you also pointed to- large multi-nationals with clout used that against IMSC.
I also presented a point that I believe THEY used: tsa was using 4 machines from Smiths and Morpho all four had cargo and passenger listing. If tsa removed all four from the cargo list, but kept two on the passenger list, that would create significant alarm. Additionally, I also believe that smiths and morpho cast a great deal of doubt on IMSC's ability to produce thousands of etds to fill what would have been a landslide of orders for the cargo market.
But all reasonable explanations don't seem to fit your view, even though you have expressed similar ideas about what happened.
Dr.Jones was good enough for GE and Safran( morpho's prior name) but not good enough for IMSC? What changed that? My view, its an upstart vs giant multi-national story. And these two multi-nationals are doing everything they can to squash this upstart.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Pat- thanks for your reply. And a fair one at that. I sure can see how you would disagree with me based on results to date as they have been pathetic.
However, read post 17434 to review what started to happen and then went absolutely nowhere. Its that the result of a great cmo or a terrible cmo or the process we are stuck within?
Dr. Jones has earned his stripes, but let me pose this question to you, which I posed to others, and if you get the gist, you might understand what is transpiring:
Dr. Jones and Morpho's CMO flip job positions. Does Morpho's CMO now working at IMSC deliver better-worse-same sales results to date?
Not to deprive you of an answer, but the only possible answer is SAME RESULTS. Why? Process. And leverage by strong, competing multi-nationals who have a level of clout with tsa that cannot be underestimated.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
maeb- NO, this solicit is for the transportation and installation of "security products for checkpoint/baggage". It could be for metal detection equipment, it refers to passenger baggage so it could be eds equipment. With that said, and what I think many of us have felt and believed, it makes sense that some of the equipment transported has to be etd equipment. But that is just my take so don't rely on it, but its good to pay attention to it.
Maybe the good Doctor D has something to say that I will gladly pay a dollar and eighteen cents to hear. Doctor, are you still here?
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
nowak- but if the TEDs solicit is solid,on track and cannot be derailed, then I think we hear about the idiq for IMSC prior to mid-Nov. If ceo bolduc has any type of relationship with tsa, he senses it right now and he is preparing for the official release of information. Again, the other side of the coin theory states, the big companies will be kicking hard to undo, delay or derail any tsa award to IMSC.
This process has been like carrying a cross to the moon. The agony is astute and ongoing. But I do sense that tsa's move is formed up. But there are no signs being sent within the share trading pattern except for the short side, which seems to short and cover within the same trading day.
As you can read from the conference call transcript exerps concerning cargo, what is operative today might soon be blocked tomorrow.
Based on what you know and how you see things to date, what is your $1.18 cent forecast?
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Nowak- I have no idea. I was pointing to ceo bolduc's comment about the largest production run in the companies history. Now, in my view and its worth about 1.18$ is, IMSC is sure of gaining an idiq that capabilities pointed to for sept. of 2014 and that event slipped.
But as we have seen, events change, the companies with all the leverage use that freely and in great measure. That would be one side of the coin. The other would be: secure the dam country against the growing threats and do it now, dammit. These are guesses that may not be worth 1.18$. Its another piece of the puzzle to my point of view. But I am thankful for reading Dr. Detroit's post as it is valuable.
Best of Luck To ALL IMSC LONGS!
Doctor D- thanks! Great find!
The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) is hereby issuing a Request for Proposals (RFP) for Transportation Security Equipment Deployment Services (TEDS) as defined in Section C of the solicitation. The contract(s) to be awarded as a result of the RFP will encompass all deployments of security capabilities for the TSA. These projects primarily deploy Checkpoint Technologies (CPT) for passenger screening and carry-on baggage, and Checked Baggage Technologies (CBT) for the screening of checked baggage.
In accordance with FAR 52.215-1(f), the Government intends to award one single Indefinite Delivery/Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract per geographical region (West, Central, and East) for a total of up to three (3) contract awards. Offerors may choose to propose one, two or all three (3) regions. Offerors proposing all regions shall submit 4 separate proposals: one for East, one for Central, one for West, and one for all Regions.
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What can we deduce from this solicit? To deploy in jan.15, they must order very soon.
Perhaps them will order from a company who has the product ready to ship and is inside the usa? But to your point, tsa is sometimes a victim of the corp. games. And as much as I respect them, I have to question them also. I think this speaks to your point that while the tsa is the authority, others can influence the voice / decision process of that authority.
Great post Doctor D! Thanks. You have helped me greatly and for that I am in your debt!
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
zey- not sure how you can hold your position based on the feelings you stated. Did you read the transcript portions from the April2013 conf. call? Tsa is not an easy catch and they will change at any time. Obviously, IMSC does not have the clout to force changes to their way. I will guess that certain rivals are using their debt situation against them. But read this very interesting intersection of sorts between the debt holder DMRJ's Dan Small and ceo Bolduc and Dr. Jones from that same conference call:
Glenn D. Bolduc - President and Chief Executive Officer:
And, if you ask me which would occur first, hard to say right now, I don’t have a crystal ball in terms of how much of our pipeline we convert to sales, how much cash we generate from that et cetera, et cetera. I don’t have a crystal ball that tells me that. I know what I’d like to do, but it’s not crystal clear right now.
Dr. Darryl Jones - Vice President, Global Sales and Marketing:
I want to just to add something, Dan this is Darryl, while you’re jumping up the call. Just to add to that, I want to emphasize the importance of getting the TSA approval and how it has already expanded our market presence. I mean just in the last couple of weeks we’ve been able to respond to tenders and the multiple unit order tenders that we did not have the opportunity to even respond to before. I mean, over the last three weeks I think we have done about six tenders, and that's in every region of the world. I mean, in Southeast Asia, and in Middle East, everywhere that you can think of, Latin America so on. That is really – of this one approval alone has really opened the door for us.
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That was in response to Dan Small's question. Sure, things sounded great. Sure things have not turned out the way they sounded but you make a dramatic leap in thinking to say: They ( ceo and cmo) lied to us.
I am trying to be fair to each side of this while I sit on the shareholder side. Based on what I have heard, I cannot say they lied which is what your sugar coating comment speaks to.
Am I disenchanted by the eventline that has happened? Very much so. But I want to hear what tsa does or does not do. Does that seem reasoned or not to you?
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Nowak- you make very valid points. And you point to many unknowns that may trip up our process that would make IMSC a valuable stock to own.
However, there is one thought that you must consider: tsa's use of etd is much different than that of a cargo etd user. Many things are different which is why tsa tests units differently for each use and certainly uses some common tests used by both disparate etd users.
Let me hazard a guess: cargo etd volume use may be larger per etd unit than passenger etd volume use so an auto calibration feature really delights cargo users while it may be nice but not as vital to the tsa user.
And to your point about multi-nationals throwing around their collective muscle. I believe very true. Certainly you can observe tsa's habit/tendancy of using at least two vendors for any applied use which predicts a speedy process for Smith's 600, which may or may not be as good or better than IMSC's b-220. But read a prior post to hear my thoughts on this as I believe their possible "wait and see before purchasing creates a danger". I think this will be made clear by the length of time and the initial order size when they issue an idiq. As of right now, who do you think they should purchase from to insure the safety of the country?
All The Best to ALL IMSC LONGS!
HC- sorry to disabuse you of your incorrect notion- I do NOT work for IMSC nor the preposterous claim of working for Dr. Jones.
However, if you do some diligence you will see that there is active short side that is forming up about 30% to 85% of all share sales. The stock did plateau from $1.8 to $1.6 but shorts attacked. Anything the bod could have done might have been taken as a pump action and this is all transpiring against what I think we all believe will be an idiq for passenger use by tsa.
Once again, I am a shareholder and do NOT work for the company, but I do believe in it and I do believe that until the tsa has spoken on changes to their passenger etd use, it is smart to hold this stock. But if you see things differently, by all means show me how wrong my thinking is. As an aside, I would not hold stock in any company if I believed that company was lying to shareholders. Not sure if you ever dated a woman that has lied to you but I have, once and not for long.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
B9- tsa has published a deadline of sorts of what has to change and by what date. I have read through a few times and while I certainly don't know everything that experts in this field can make from the document, there is one thing that I did note and did express;
-tsa wants alignment of etd system specifications across all spaces that it controls. Consider, how many questions would have came about if tsa would have removed Smiths-Morpho etds from the cargo list while still using those exact same etd units for their own use in passenger screening. ( I saw that one a mile away, but que sera sera)
-in tsa's defense for the above actions, they had nowhere to turn at the time because IMSC had not entered the passenger cert. process to a point that tsa could predict an outcome.
- the next passage is my own view and it is controversial- tsa dropped the ball in a big way. If you are the head of intell and you tells me that we could possibly miss about 5-8 different threats at passenger station but we have to continue to use machines on the frontline because of possible market turmoil created in the cargo space, well you have left us very vulnerable and in my opinion that is exactly what tsa has done with no thanks to the multinational etd-eds makers. It was a calculated gamble. Again, these are my own views and there is no way to be certain that they are correct.
- so the next event from tsa will reveal all: do they intend to replace the entire current etd unit base with the latest approved etd unit or just part of the base? Again, in my opinion, and I will be asking my Congressman to look into it should it happen is, they must use current technology that finds the latest known threats or they expose us to grave danger. And they must not wait 1 -2 years for a product that may or may not be as good as IMSC's product. I can't say this loud enough. Intell is our best ally, to ignore intell is like going on vacation for a month when an attack is about to occur on u.s. soil.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
nowak- you have pointed to a very interesting intersection of marketing and science. Dr.McGann is a world class expert in the science of trace detection. Dr. Jones is a world known marketing director of successful security products.
Tsa is a customer, a source of intelligence and a standards setter for cargo etd purchasing and purchasing for their own system of operations.
I am sure Dr. McGann speaks with tsa about the latest substances and materials being used by the terrorists as finding those things are his domain. In terms of use in the field of an etd unit and what buyer needs are in a competitive situation, well that's Dr. Jones domain. My point, together, they make a very potent team. Sure, I get your point that sales have not confirmed their potency as any kind of team. But to some extent, they are also competing with their own past positions at Morpho as they had active roles there in their respective fields.
And to your point that Smiths and Morpho are not going away and likely to create responses to anything IMSC has created- YES, ABSOLUTELY. But, Smiths ionscan600 has to go through the same process of certification that IMSC went through. Not sure how they can leapfrog that process but if you know how they can do that, by all means share that information. The only thing that may give them a one month advantage is they won't run into a gov. shutdown and re-start. But lets say they do move through faster, my guess as to their best case- maybe 12-14 months from submission of quality data package of their unit. Worst case would 14-18 months.
Last thought, I am in the same boat as all investors, I have alot of money invested into IMSC and I want to look at every angle. So anyone that has a constructive insight based on logic or fact, please share that.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!