I agree that touting the prospects would move ERHE significantly. However, we are talking about virgin sand and rock in Kenya. If management were to hype the potential and the FTG studies don't produce promising data, the shares would tank and that would produce lawsuits. I don't think you want that any more than I do.

Now is not the time to shout from the mountain tops. Now is the time to present the market with absolute facts, and to do it *only* when it is required by law. Those with a stomach for risk can come aboard and secure the highest posible gain, and those prefering to wait can come aboard when more data is available.

If/when the blocks show promising prospects, the herds will come. If any those prospects prove commercial oil, the stampede will come.

ERHE will continue to trickle up next week if they report that the offering was meaningfully successful. Those that waited hoping for a lower price will give up at various price points and that will cause continued upward pressure...

...if they report that the offering was meaningfully successful. That's been the bet all along.

It could have been a MM that accumulated them cheaper.

That was a much more pleasant read than the usual articles. Thanks for posting it.

The more oil that gets brought up within U.S. borders, the less we import, keeping international prices down. Sinopec won't be carting that oil back to China, it will be selling it here in the U.S. and buying oil closer to home. Less trtansport fees.

That pipeline through Kenya will be a huge plus for ERHC. It will make even relatively small discoveries commercial. That's probably why ERHC doesn't seem too eager to sell off a large chunk for a carrying partner. That pipeline is key, IMO.

I think they're being quite clear in what they are saying. They need $18M to cover the next 12-18 months in Chad and Kenya. They are telling us, quite bluntly, to either participate and give them the money or they will raise it another way.

I hope everyone participates that can, because I can't think of other ways of raising capital that are very friendly, and all of them cut out the retail shareholders from participation.

The wildcard is Offor. If anyone chooses to wait, hoping for a lower price, and Offor goes all in, they won't have any hope of getting shares at this price.

That's my expectation.

Not only are "more offerings to come" expected by "some", the company has clearly announced that its committments require $105M over the next 5 years. Nobody should be shocked that more fund raising will occur, we have already been told that it would.

The bet to place is at what level that fund raising will occur. If a person believes it will be at a lower level, they should wait. If they believe it will be at a higher level, with a partner in our pocket, they should exercise their right to buy at 7.5 cents.

I think that when the company said early results are "encouraging", they are really saying "we are surprised at the support our shareholders are showing. I'm in the camp that believes whatever shares aren't taken by the little guys will be taken by Chrome. This thing was in the bag from the beginning, IMO. The company is "encouraged" by the support it still has from the "little guys" after recent disappointments.

JMHO.

Lickity interpreted "mid-dollar" to mean $1.50. That's the confusion.

Ah, the unanswerable question rears its ugly head!

I don't know.

1.) They consider the JDZ a bust and are looking/hoping for a buyer to get rid of it.

2.) They see the JDZ has potential, but it is complex and they need a partner.

3.) They know they hit in the JDZ and they are drawing things out to starve the little guys.

If you read kingpindg's post today then you understand that #2 is most likely, but #3 is still in the running.

Does that answer your question?

Well isn't that special?

Nice find kingpindg!

The multiple letters are likely because you own shares in multiple accounts.

ERHC cannot and should not offer a guarantee of future rewards to its shareholders. Demanding the company to release news guaranteeing the success of the offering is illogical and, IMO, would be illegal.

Any news will come when it comes. If it's good those that particpate will be rewarded for their loyalty. If the news isn't good, the mirror will be the judge.

Will we see, "if I wouldn't have participated?..."

or "if I would have participated?"

I don't know... and I don't think anyone else does either.

At he end of the day there can be no finger pointing, each of us participates or we don't, and that is final. Whatever that decision is, be sure to look in the mirror *hard* after it plays out.

It's time to place bets.

Fair enough. The determination of whether JDZ block 1 is commercial for Total, which was the jist of jimbo's original post, will be based on the cost of a tie-back to Egina. If there is enough oil to justify the cost of the tie-back, then JDZ block 1 will be produced through the Egina FPSO, and any volumes produced by JDZ block 1 will be encapsulated in the Egina "major project" numbers. Total bought block 1 knowing the OBO results. They already knew it would be commercial for them. The JDZ block 1 OBO discovery was said to be ~60-80 million barrels, not commercial on it's own, but certainly enough to cover laying a pipe to Egina... and we don't know how much the recently drilled two wells discovered. Both had oil shows, so they added to OBO's numbers, we just don't know how much.

Badog, the slide you referenced if for Total's major projects. Jimbo's post was about JDZ block 1. It seems clear to me that a block recently drilled by Total, but not yet evaluated, wouldn't be on a "major projects" list.

Maybe I missed your point. To me drawing a conclusion right now is premature.

That clears it up nicely. Thanks.

LOL! For what it's worth I *am* buying shares and I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night!

That's a good question. I don't have a good answer. I know there are a lot of "inactive" shareholders that have small amounts of shares long since forgotten, but no where near that quantity.

I tend to think the only people that will participate are the ones actively following the stock. There aren't many of us.

Your point is very well taken though. There are a *LOT* of shares that can't readily be accounted for floating around out there.

As I said before, I think Offor is fully prepared to take on all of the offering shares. IMO, he fully subscribed and requested an oversubscription of all 142M shares left after the first round (using the assumption that nobody else would participate).

When this thing closes everyone participating will get their shares. Then all of those requesting oversubscription will be allocated shares from those remaining prorated on their percentage of ownership after that first round. This will be repeated until all of the shares are disbursed and the full $18M is raised. After the closing date the process becomes a simple recursive math problem that will be worked out in a matter of days, if not hours.

Offer currently owns 43% of the company. Collectively we own what, 4.3%? That's roughly 31M shares collectively, probably somewhere in the ball park. So we own just 10% of what Offor owns. If half of retail investors fully particpate, and only half of them choose to oversubscribe, just 2.5% of the oversubscription shares will go to retail investors, the remainder will go to Offor. Since most retail investors have finite resourses, those still in the hunt for more oversubscription shares should fall off rather quickly. I would guess that somewhere between 5 and 10 percent of the retail crowd is sufficiently liquid to hang in through several iterations of the oversubscription. The end result of this is going to be Offor acquiring somewhere between 98 and 99 percent of the 248M shares.

Those that are claiming that this offering has no backstop don't understand the process. The way it is structured Offor is already financing virtually all of the $18M. This is just my opinion, of course. If Offor doesn't oversubscribe to the maximum, or chooses not to fully participate/participate at all, then ERHE will be crushed far lower than the 3.5 cent "predictions" being floated. Again, JMHO.

Management looked at two things in determining the size of the offering, how much Offor was willing to commit, and what was a fair discount to market to set the price. From there they calculated that 248M shares would be the size. This whole offering was in the bag from the start, because without it the company would be toast.

I suspect that his broker accepted his cancellation request, but the the transfer agent will reject it as laid out in the prospectus. The prospectus clearly states that once subscribed, cancellation is not permitted.

Great post!

What part of the offering being fully successful don't you understand? Offor wasn't blindsided by this IMO. He is on board and prepared to take *all* of the shares if nobody else does.

There is no need or reason to promote something that is already "in the bag". It's that simple.

I think you are missing the point that supports a price rise to 7.5 cents. ERHE has been bouncing between 10-15 cents for a long time. The only reason it's trading in this range is the *because* of the offering. Every time it goes above 7.5 cents people sell because they can guarantee getting those shares back for less. Once the artificial pressure caused by that selling disappears, the share price will rebound to the "norm".

Everything you base your conclusion on is predicated on the rights offering failing to produce the $18M being sought. Make *NO* mistake, Offor was in the loop when this plan was hatched. He will participate, and I believe that he was and is fully prepared to buy *all* of the shares to give ERHC the money it needs to advance through this year.

When this offering closes (and raises the full $18M), the artificial pressure from sales over 7.5 cents will disappear, and the the upward pressure on this stock increase significantly.

Offor's thought process is not in line with yours/ours. We think in terms of how many more shares we can get at a given price point. This offering is about raising the funds necessary for ERHC to succeed. Offor likely sees himself as the bank that will provide that funding for success. Could he screw us and tank it to get more shares? Maybe. But if your scenario were to play out it would bring scrutiny, extreme scrutiny, from the SEC. I'm sure nobody, including Offor, wants that.

Of course, if any such discussions have ocurred behind closed doors, and Offor takes the vast majority of the offering as I think he will...

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=83910414

then maybe any such number being batted around gets into his enticement range, with subsequent successes in Chad and/or Kenya potentially being a very thick layer of icing on Offor's cake.

Who knows?

He/she knew this before they posted.

That's my take on it. After the offering closes this will become a rucursive calculation that is almost immediately over. Those that request large oversubscription amounts will remain whole in their percentage ownership of the company.

We should have the results during the first week of March, IMO. Of course, the only result requiring reporting will be Offor's since he owns over 5%... and that's only if he participates. If he chooses to not participate we won't hear anything other than how much was raised.

I can't disagree, it IS getting old. So am I. But I still see the potential that even one commercial discovery offers.

I think you do too.

Yep, that's the point. The price isn't going to dip far enough prior to the deadline to make the effort worth while. Will it dip far enough afterwards? I don't know.

That's the gamble. If any kind of news comes out there will be no hope of getting a full subscription quantity under the offering price.

We have 21-23 days (given most brokerage limitations) to make our decision and place our bets.

The problem is that you would not be alone in doing that. If the price is below 7.5 cents you could get a few at that level, but could you get your full subscription amount? Not if that amount is more than 50K or so... and like I said, you are not alone. If 10, 30, or 50 investors are scrambling for those "less than 7.5 cent" shares, the price will rise to the highest bid. And then you have to factor in commissions. How many small lots will you have to buy on the open market to reach your full quota? Could you sneak a 10K buy through at 7.2 cents? Sure. But what if your rights are for 100K shares? Could you get 10 lots of 10K through? That's questionable. And then there are the other investors trying to do the same thing.

When you factor in the demand below 7.5 cents and the commissions on the multiple orders it would take to execute, you might find that the discount you "win" by going to the open market vs. the offering is eaten up by the commissions and the competition from others doing the same thing... not to mention the headache of dealing with the execution... and as the deadline looms closer the likelihood is that the price will edge ever closer to the subscription price of 7.5 cents. When it's all said and done you might get a few under the offering price, but if you want your full allotment, you will likely have to tap the offering to fully get there before the deadline anyway.

Is it really worth all of that effort for the few shares that you **might** gain? I don't think so. And don't forget, by going to the open market your money is going to the seller of the shares you are buying, not to the company. The whole point of this exercise is to raise funds to explore Chad and Kenya. If everyone goes to the open market the funds will not get raised and those cheap shares you worked so hard for will be worth far less than you paid... all because going to the open market for cheaper shares deprives the company of the funds this adventure is meant to raise.

I guess I am trying to say this... they aren't promoting the offering, I agree with you on that. Why aren't they?

Because it is in the bag.

If every last dollar is already assured then why bother promoting? It's an unneccesary step.

I think they will get their money. Chrome will take on any shares left after it is over. The extension, IMO, was indeed because there were time issues for all to participate... that left a huge liability if the share price suddenly advances on news. They had to be sure all that wanted to participate were able to.

Again, this is about reducing a liability, not about a lack of participation. The funding will be there whether the retail crowd buys in or not, the only questions are how much will each of us do to reduce our individual dilution and how much more control will Offor gain after its all said and done.

That's it.

Oh but you have! And you will to a much greater degree going forward! All anyone needs to do is look at their pay stub to see their "donation".

Some will claim that Offor has mislead the market no matter which way this turns out. If he participates, they will claim that the market was mislead into not participating by Offor not stating ahead of time that he would be a buyer. If he does not participate, they will claim that he mislead the market by stating his support for the offering.

Some people seem to think they are owed information ahead of time that would guarantee a price increase... THAT isn't going to happen, not with ERHC, not with any company.

The ramifications of each of our decisions rest with each of us individually. We have to look at all of the information that is available, fill in any blanks with our intuition and experience, make a decision, and live with the result of our actions.

If the information flow isn't to someones liking there are thousands of other stocks to choose from.

You will be "shown the money", but only after it is too late for you to act on that knowledge, IMO.

As you can tell, I think that is a done deal and I expect we will know very shortly.

Don't you think the increase in authorized plays a significant role in the share price? I do. We have taken the first hit... 248M new shares. What we all need to hope for is that the money will be used to shine a bright light on ERHC's assets through FTG and seismic and paint a very pretty picture of these blocks. With that any subsequent offering will be a vastly higher prices (read fewer shares) and/or a carrying partner can be secured.

Until one of those 2 things occur, the authorized is going to weigh on the share price like the Titanic's 16 ton anchor.