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GOOG - up or down
GOOG is at a critical point. The sudden price drop a few days ago has found some support. Is it a support base for a rally to new highs, or a little bounce in a new downtrend?
TLAB SHORT Update
It looks like the wave c zigzag had enough life to bring it to the same level as Wave a zigzag of a double zigzag. If the price breaks the 50 day average then chances are the longer term downtrend is resuming.
TLAB Short Opportunity
From the Nov '06 hi to the Dec '06 low, TLAB formed a motive wave down. Since the DEC '06 low TLAB formed a double zigzag consolidation. The second zigzag is nearly done and is about to truncate with respect to the first zigzag. A price drop below $9.75 would be confirmation of the beginning of the next downside move. Post truncation price action is generally swift, and may even gap below this point.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLAB&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p50277965024
GOOG
Only hope for GOOG bulls is the smaller triangle over the last 3 months has just ended a wave c. That would leave waves d up and e down before wave 5 up challenges new highs and makes a top.
Top would be confirmed with a price move below $450
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOOG&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p28632561587
GOOG DROPS
This may be wave e of the smaller triangle. Lets see who jumps in tomorrow to turn the price around to set new highs.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=goog&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75635173805
GOOG: 2 Triangles.
There is a large degree triangle from Jan '06 high to Aug '06 lows. The second triangle is at a smaller degree. It began in the Nov '06 high and is still in progress, maybe in wave d or e. There should be another short burst (wave 5) to a new high in the next week or two. Any new high could be the top at this point.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOOG&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p79465254100
GOLDen Triangle
Which is the REAL triangle?
Is it Wave 4 triangle that started at $730?
Wave A is disproportionately long. Wave E of this triangle had no throw under of the lower edge of the triangle. The technical case is kind of weak. If the consolidatino is over then a moonshot is happening.
Or is it Triangle Wave B of a zigzag that started at $542?
The waves look textbook, Wave e could give a false break above the upper triangle edge any day. Wave C, the Zag, remains and could take the price back into the $530 area.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p66219168329
S-Tut, Yes!
Bearish: Q's Spy DIA will fall sharply over the next couple of weeks.
Bullish: The markets make a choppy advance a few more weeks before bearish case is in play.
GGC
Way back in 1989-1990 GGC went from the $60's to less than $10. Off that bottom it zig-zagged nearly 15 years back to $60. From the 2004 top the two years of selling have not finished. GGC is in a major zigzag correction. It is has finished Wave 2 of the zag and starting Wave 3. I think the price finds a bottom below $10 again. Wait before you load the truck up with GGC. Strong companies caught in a major market downdraft will lead the next major rally.
FTSE ending diagonal
From the September '06 lows the Londo FTSE has traced out an ending diagonal. The January '07 high to Monday (Jan 22) or Tuesday (Jan 23) low was a triangle in the wave 4 position. As typical with wave 5 following a triangle, today's trading was up sharply. Tomorrow should press a little higher before a 5-10% drop begins.
The Dow Inddustrials and German DAX are also in ending diagonals, and about to revers any day now.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$ftse&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75635173805
GE topped
GE formed a wave 4 triangle between Mid-december '06 to early January '07. While the advance from the end of the triangle was slow, the price just advanced past the top of wave 3. The selloff has dropped below the beginning of the wave 5 area, so there is at least a bounce and another 2% drop before GE would challenge 52 week highs again. Worse yet, GE could be starting WAVE C, the second downward leg of the Y2K bubble pop.
JNJ Ewave Count
December high to December low was a Wave 4 triangle.
December low to today could have finished a Wave 5 ending diagonal that truncated. Now is a great time to short as the price has limited upside, but also has a great potential for long term drops below the December lows.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=jnj&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75635173805
INDU Major Technical Divergence
As the Dow has been making higher highs (uptrending), the RSI, Stochastics, and MACD charts have been making lower highs (downtrending) for the past 2-3 months Eventually the market will follow the indicators.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75635173805
GE- One More Rally
The e-wave count for GE on the decade scope looks like WAVE A down from the 2000 high and WAVE B from the 2002 - 2003 low. WAVE B is a zig zag, presently in wave 5 of 5 in the zag. Wave 4 of 5 of the zag is asymmetrical triangle, which means one more advance that should be sharp. Fibonacci ratios indicate a target in the low $40, a 50% retracement of WAVE A.
GOOG Topping
Google is about to make another all-time high. Its e-wave count from the Dec '06 lows is almost complete. A day or two of sideways trading (little wave 4) and an advance (little wave 5) to new highs are anticipated before a major downturn begins.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=goog&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p98331346671
FRE FNM Downside Targets
The best target I have is $60 for FRE. There are two bottoms there. The long term E-wave count is a large ending diagonal which began at the lows in 2000. Wave 5 of the Ending Diagonal may have truncated, or it will also be an ending diagonal. The truncated scenario means a continuation of the sharp selloff. If another high is made the sharp selloff is delayed.
FNM made its top in 2000. FNM is probably about to start a WAVE 3, a plunge of 50% over the next 2 years is a high probability.
Going UP
SPX NDX INDU
It looks like a triangle ended yeterday. The upper trendline of the downtrend has been broken. The bottom is rounded. Move off the bottom is motive.
52 week highs should be tested.
FNM and FRE Stairstepping Lower
This usually happens before a significant single day drop of say... more than 5%. As mortage applications dry up FRE and FNM have les business to conduct. The quality of the present mortgage applicants probably is not the best.
INDU SPX selling look corrective
There are many zig-zags and overlapping waves. The bottom should be any moment now. But will the rally make a new high or be a truncation?
Shanghai inverted hammer.
The SSEC had an inverted hammer candlestick for Jan 4. the length of the handle is several percentage points. This is one sharp reversal after going exponential for a few months.
The Hang Seng opened and kept selling off.
The Nikkei inched higher
The Thailand SETI dropped 3%. The 15% drop a few weeks ago makes the e-wave count difficult due to distortions. This is a lagging Asian market, so it does not confirm the SSEC HSI or NIKK
All Asian markets are topping.
DOW:Gold Ratio Chart
This chart appears on Prechter's Elliott Wave Intl site.
http://www.elliottwave.com/features/default.aspx?cat=pmp*aid=2802*time=pm
My E-wave interpretation is a WAVE B FLAT is in Wave C-5. This means over the next 1 or 2 months the DOW will be relatively stronger than gold. Then WAVE C should begin and gold will be very strong relative to the DOW. Based on earlier discussions on gold cycle on this board. Gold should bottom around $530. This implies the DOW won't advance much during gold's pullback.
Once the gold pullback ends, gold should rally to new highs. The DOW will lag in performance, but the direction is undetermined at this point as a falling DOW to GOLD ratio is possible whether Bernanke hyperinflates or lets deflation take its course.
Asian Markets Days From Top
Nikk
Early Sept 06 to late Nov '06 looks like a Wave 4 flat. Wave 5 show 5 complete segments. Nikk is ready to head lower at some degree.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$nikk&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p98331346671
Shanghai
Moove from Aug '06 low started going parabolic in Nov '06. Dec '06 to present the market has gone vertical. extensions and parabolic spikes are followed by sharp reversals.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$ssec&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p98331346671
Hang Seng
Off december lows has been an ending diagonal in wave 5. The ED is about to truncate. This indicates a severe turn in the making. The top looks rounded.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$hsi&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p98331346671
GE Topping.
The recent GE rally appears to be near the completion of a multi year WAVE B corrective move. WAVE C of the decade long correction in GE should take prices below $10 in the next 2 years. I'll have to see if I want to "back the truck up" with GE since they have 3-4x debt to equity. Bankruptcy is a possibility greater than most people's expectations.
SPX - DJIA Triangle
Since last Thursday both market look to be forming a wave 4 triangle. Wave d looks complete. wave e should cause a slight drop before a shooting to a new 52 week high. Then a downward move for more consolidation, or beginning of a long term bear market.
Markets Pop & Drop = Top?
It looks like the opening was a 5th wave. Since then ewaves look motive, but could also be corrective if a double zigzag develops.
INDU Price-MACD Divergence
The price has been a choppy rise over the last 2 months, but the MACD has beed trending down. This is signalling a multiweek trend reversal.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$indu&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p98331346671
NOPE, NOT FLATS.
The SPX made new 52 week highs today. The e-waves off last Tuesday's lows look like zigzags. This is not motive, which is signaling a possible ending diagonal.
The INDU and NDX have not confirmed the new 52 week high in the SPX.
The European markets DAX, FTSE, CAC are not confirming the SPX either.
Gold sold off today in what could be the a zag of a zigzag correction from the 52 week highs. Target is $532 according to one of the other poster a month ago.
FLAT FLAT FLAT
The opening was definitely motive. The rest of the day shows a flat corrective wave. Monday should be a very sharp drop (2%) in the NDX, SPX, and INDU.
The bullish scenario is a large Wave 4 triangle is in wave d and monday will only be down a little followed by a very sharp rally that retests the 52 week highs.
INDU Bounce Retraces 66%
The rally from this week's low has retraced a fibonacci 2/3 ratio of the selloff from last weeks highs. The bounce looks like a double zigzag wave.
Downside targets are:
11796.096 based on Wave 3 = 1.618 Wave 1
11686.08 based on Wave 3 = 2 Wave 1
11508.096 based on Wave 3 = 2.618 Wave 1
INDU and SP500 E-wave
The wave off Wednesday's low looks very motive. I was expecting a zigzag or choppiness following the very motive looking wave from last week's. So far the bounce has recovered 3/5 of the drop. The wave count that best fits this situation is a Wave 4 flat that started at October's top and ended this Wednesday. In a flat, its top goes beyond the ending of Wave 3. The rally since then has been Wave 5. The end of Wave 5 today is higher than Wave 3. Since Wave 4 made the absolute high, this is called and unorthodox high.
So tomorrow there should be a pullback. Either a small consolidation of a larger uptrend, or the beginning or a crash.
SP500 chart:
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=$inx&data=Z60&date=072106&den=HIGH&divd=Y&a...
Shorted SUNW
It is near the top of its 4 year range of a WAVE B. The near term wave count shows another 50c drop in the near term.
I also have a short in TLAB. It looks technically horrible: gap down on big volume this week, and continued falling today on big volume. The bollinger bands are widening and the price is waterfalling along the lower band. This is start of a Wave 3 of WAVE C. WAVE A started from the Y2K top. WAVE B ended around $17.
Dow Industrials EWave count
The move off the alltime high in the INDU has had 1 motive wave and completing one corrective wave. The 288 point drop is 2x a fibonacci number. The corrective wave looks like a zigzag with the zag about to complete early tomorrow. If the futures are wild tonight, there is a good chance of a pop-and drop tomorrow.
The severity of the drop could take the price down to the 11900 area, or deeper into the 11600 area.
The RSI, MACD, and Stochastics gave simultaneous sell signals. Bollinger bands are widening to allow for price volatility as anticipated by the VIX. The price penetrated the middle of the bands. This is not a good sign. The price usually bounces off the middle of the band, or it moves from one edge of the band to the other. There should be enough momentum for the price to continue its overall downward movement before it makes contact with the lower edge near the 11950 area. This would also raise a flag by crossing the 50 Day Moving average.
SUN Consolidating- SUNW Setting
SUN this year has been stepping lower this year. The wave count looks like a bunch of 1-2-1-2's. The smaller degree wave 2 zigzag SUN is in is finishing a triangle in the wave b spot and wave c should then rally. If the 1-2-1-2 sell off is incorrent, then SUN is in ending a large degree wave 4 triangle and should retest all time highs. Either way there are profits to be had to the upside.
SUNW has started a new downtrend from this area of resistance which has capped share prices over the last 5 years. I'm gonna short this stock while I can (while it's above $5 a share).
Interest rate melt up ready
10 yr Bond Rate has an ending diagonal. That means the downward trend in interest rates on the 10 year bond are not only over, but also about to reverse sharply. The bond market is telling Bernanke to save the US dollar and burst the realestate / credit bubbles.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$tnx&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p98331346671
Ending Diagonal in the VIX.
Things are about to get very volatile.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-6376.htm
GOOG Looks Toppy
Just a few pennies from $500. The late day rollover broke the trendline of the rally that began from on Nov 10th.
SPX / INDU: are triangles
NDX is an ending diagonal or several wave 4-5 combinations from a very extended motive wave.
The flat scenario didn't ork out, but triangle give a guideline of how far the following wave 5 will rise. 1 more day should do it.
DrWorm: Max Pain- Thanks
It looks like I was calculating Max-pain(tm) incorrectly. I was really surprised that 90% of options purchased are held to expiration date and become worthless. If max-pain is accurate, then the rest of the week should be downhill. This would compete wave c of a flat.
Pmiles: Max Pain Point
OK, I calculated the Nov '06 QQQQ max pain point based on friday's close. 1572920 options, both puts and calls, would expire worthles at $42. 1543178 is a close second at $44.
I can see why someone might want to use volume of worthless options as well as the dollar amount. In the future I'll refer to the dollar amount as the fulcrum pain point since it represents a center of balance of winners of calls and puts at the close.
The fulcrum pain point of the QQQQ is $41.89, which is still close to the max pain point of $42.
Consolidation over?
It is possible to count a motive wave in the NDX from yesterday's highs to this afternoon's low. That would complete a larget flat that took about two weeks to complete. I think wave c of the flat needs to drop more since there has hardly been any retracement of the July lows. The same analysis holds for the Dow Industrials.
The SPX was very close to having a flat, but wave b just missed rallying past the start of wave a. It's possible this consolidation is a double zigzag with wave c zag to complete early next week.
SPX is not confiring the NDX and INDU. The SPX would need another day to complete, while the NDX and DOW would be rallying. SPX wouldn't be that out of step with the NDX and INDU.
There are some other hints there is more choppiness ahead.
The months of September and October had the narrowest channels from the rally off the July lows. This represents harmony and order. I remember from engineering that Fourier series is the most accurate in the middle of a sawtooth or traingle function, and gets choppy at the turning points. Maybe those who use Hurst cycles could describe how "text book" the short term cycles were behaving in terms of phase and being integer multiples of each other.
The Bollinger Bands have pinched, signalling a major price change ahead. The price pulled away from the upper band, and just bounced up from the mid channel (20 dma). If the price drops below the mid channel, chances are it will continue until it touches the lower band.
The MACD is diverging as the markets hae flirted with new highs, the MACD has turned down.
Stochastics are at the high end of the range.