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This has been a great momo play, but how can they keep the pps up without a large end user on board? If I were a potential customer, I would be very concerned about future quality (they really don't know until they dig it out) and dealing with a small company sole provider of this clay structure. R&D money is tight for most and they want to spend it wisely. Momo is a great way to make money, but I wouldn't be too caught up in the future "potential", IMO.
They still haven't filled my buy at 0.0438763. Maybe that was just a day order a while back!
TRCPA: What lender would give a low asset company a loan other than a loan shark? Besides, it would probably require a personal guarantee, would you be willing to give one? LOL!
They gave out $100,000 in bonuses last year, wouldn't they use that money to keep the business going if things really looked good and make out on their stock holdings? I think you have been very naive regarding this company.
tenzzi: I think they would have to increase the authorized first before doing a forward split. Also, I doubt that would have a positive effect on a 4 cent OTC stock, especially with twice the OS and poor fundamentals. This isn't AAPL.
Sir Cruz: An OTC holding company? That's a pretty strong statement for an OTC holding company, did you find any OTC holding companies that were very successful? I don't know of any.
""yes spin offs from a publicly traded company are given their own shell to trade in by the nasd....that is why a properly run holding company that truly understand what the concept means is one of the best,safest and profitable investments a trader could make... ""
Let me reiterate!
best,safest and profitable investments a trader could make...
lancebps: BTW, appreciate the $25K offer though. Do I actually have to acquire the shells to collect? LOL!
lancebps: OK, now you are adding more requirements for the shell. I simply gave you one site and what was listed there. So far as "fully reporting", so what, it can become fully reporting after it is acquired. If one is going to pay $400,000 for a shell, why not just IPO on the OTC as a new company? That's where the "shells" came from in the first place. It's not that difficult, unless one is in a big hurry to get pumpin' and dumpin'.
Sir Cruz: Shell companies are available as low as $1500. Don't believe the BS you read on message boards, do your own DD.
"what most investors dont know it cost over 400k dollars to aquire an otc shell"
http://www.budgetcorporaterenewals.com/html/shell_corporations.html
OT: Sorry, that was EZTO DD from IHUB board. Message posted before I finished, must have hit a wrong key.
Share Structure:
Authorized: 500,000,000
Outstanding: 122,716,667
Float: 60,941,976
OT: chambers52: Looks like ETZO only has 10 million shares out and only 20 million authorized. Do you know if that is true? If so, it could be a real flyer!
OT: charlie02356: Also Kmart stock, what a flyer since they came out of bankruptcy. I bought some GLW recently with the hopes of a good turnaround story there too long term.
It's a good idea to sell a stock when one of the following occurs:
The Stock Reaches the Sell Target
Sometimes the market overreacts to short-term events, giving you the opportunity to pick up wonderful businesses at great prices. At one time or another, almost every great company has been vastly underpriced by the market. By the same token, almost every great company has also been overpriced by the market, selling far above its fair value. This happens when investors, for whatever reason, become too optimistic about a company's prospects. When you're lucky enough to have that happen to one of the stocks in your portfolio, you should consider taking some money off the table by reducing your position in that stock.
Deteriorating Fundamentals
As soon as you notice that the fundamentals of a company are beginning to deteriorate, you may want to consider getting out of the stock. A good place to look for deteriorating fundamentals is the balance sheet. Things to look for include rising debt levels, rising inventory levels, and accounts receivable that are rising faster than revenues. These are three common warning signs that a company's efficiency is deteriorating. Here are some other warning signs that the fundamentals of a company are deteriorating:
--Shrinking return on equity
--Declining profit margins
--Market share losses
--Unwise acquisitions
--Unexpected management shakeups
Buying Was a Mistake
No matter how much work you put into researching stocks, you're bound to make mistakes. Even great investors make them. After you purchase a stock, sometimes you come across something you missed before. Examples of this would be shady accounting practices, seedy related-party transactions or evidence that the company's once-wide economic moat is shrinking. If you find these or other red flags after buying a stock, you should strongly consider selling it, even if it means taking a loss. Better to cut your losses, take the tax write-off, and look for a better place to invest the money than stick with a stock that's bound to be a loser.
Trading Up or Rebalancing
During a bull market, investors often get used to ignoring financial fundamentals because virtually all stocks are going up. As John F. Kennedy said, a rising tide lifts all boats. It's usually not until we get into a recession that investors wake up to the fact that some boats are better able to withstand stormy weather than others. Companies with wide economic moats can withstand almost any downturn, but those without them suffer greatly when times get tough. That's why you should always be on the lookout for high-quality stocks to replace lower-quality ones in your portfolio.
You might also want to think about taking some money off the table if a stock has risen so much that it now accounts for an outsized portion of your portfolio. If a stock that used to make up 10% of your portfolio has doubled in price while the rest of your stocks have stayed flat, that stock will now make up 20% of your portfolio. That's probably too much dependence on just one stock, so in this situation you should consider selling some shares to rebalance your portfolio.
At Morningstar StockInvestor we think that buying great companies well below their intrinsic value, focusing on 15-20 of our best ideas, and minimizing turnover are the keys to long-term investment success. Minimizing turnover, however, is not an end, but a means to achieving great results. Sometimes it's appropriate to sell a stock. We've used the guidelines above to decide when a stock needs to go, and it has served us well over the years. Hopefully, these guidelines will be beneficial to you as well.
Rule No. 4: Buy Damaged Stocks, Not Damaged Companies
By James J. Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
3/10/2005 7:47 AM EST
Editor's note: Jim Cramer's new book, Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World, will be released April 5. During the month of March, we will be running previews from the book on Cramer's "Twenty-Five Rules of Investing." For more about the new book and to preorder it, click here. Today, we present Cramer's fourth rule of investing.
Let's say Wall Street is holding a sale of solid merchandise that it has to move. And let's say you take that merchandise home only to find it doesn't work, has a hole in it or is missing a key part. If we were on Main Street, of course, it wouldn't matter. There are guarantees and warranties on Main Street galore. You can take anything back.
You can't return merchandise on Wall Street and get your money back. Nope, no way.
Which is why I always say:
You have to buy damaged stocks, not damaged companies.
Sometimes these buys are easy to discern. In 1998, when Cendant (CD:NYSE - commentary - research) was defrauded by the management of CU International through a series of bogus financials, the stock went from $36 to $12 in pretty much a straight line. Was that a one-day sale that should be bought? No, that was a damaged company. It took years for Cendant to work its way back into the hearts of investors. Some say it has never recovered.
But when Eastman Chemical (EMN:NYSE - commentary - research) announced a shortfall a couple of months ago because of a problem -- a fixable problem -- at one of its facilities, that 4-point dip was a classic panic sale, one that you had to buy. The stock subsequently moved up a quick 8 points when the division recovered in the next quarter.
Sometimes, the sales on Wall Street aren't as obvious. I got snookered last year thinking that the Nortel's (NT:NYSE - commentary - research) accounting problems were a simple sale of a damaged stock, with the company quite whole. In fact, the company was gravely damaged by an accounting fraud, and I still don't know if it will recover. (By the way, I very much think that Lucent (LU:NYSE - commentary - research) is a case of a damaged stock with a company that is in a long-term improvement mode, a view not shared by many. But I am willing to hold it on the belief that the turn will be more obvious after several quarters.)
But when Eastman Chemical (EMN:NYSE - commentary - research) announced a shortfall a couple of months ago because of a problem -- a fixable problem -- at one of its facilities, that 4-point dip was a classic panic sale, one that you had to buy. The stock subsequently moved up a quick 8 points when the division recovered in the next quarter.
Sometimes, the sales on Wall Street aren't as obvious. I got snookered last year thinking that Nortel's (NT:NYSE - commentary - research) accounting problems were a simple sale of a damaged stock, with the company quite whole. In fact, the company was gravely damaged by an accounting fraud, and I still don't know if it will recover. (By the way, I very much think that Lucent (LU:NYSE - commentary - research) is a case of a damaged stock with a company that is in a long-term improvement mode, a view not shared by many. But I am willing to hold it on the belief that the turn will be more obvious after several quarters.)
And sometimes the sale is so steep that it looks as if something's dreadfully wrong, when really the problem is something that over the longer term will go away. That's how I feel right now about Tibco Software (TIBX:Nasdaq - commentary - research), which just warned of an earnings shortfall. After that company reports its next quarter I think we will discover that there's nothing wrong at the company, just a stock that was in bad, jumpy hands.
How do we know if there is something wrong with the company instead of just the stock? I think that's too complicated a question. What I like to do is develop a list of stocks I like very much, and when Wall Street holds an en masse sale, as it did yesterday with the oils because of the reversal in ExxonMobil (XOM:NYSE - commentary - research), I like to step up to the plate. I particularly like to be ready when we have multiple selloffs in the stock market because of events unrelated to the stocks I want to buy, a major shortfall of an important bellwether stock, or perhaps some macro event that doesn't affect my micro-driven story.
Of course, sometimes you just have to deduce that the company's fortunes haven't really changed, and the fundamentals that triggered the selloff (either in the market or in the company) will be something that will reverse themselves shortly. But you never know. Which is, again, why I think that the rule from yesterday -- rule no. 3 -- must be obeyed. If you don't buy all the stock at once, and if you take your time, it is more likely that you won't be left holding a huge chunk of merchandise when more bad news comes around the corner.
beischens: Maybe some news soon and something to discuss.
I think the OS has reached critical point and will dampen anything less than a major contract announcement with $$$$$$ attached. Ball peen hammer IQ? Next time you are out driving in traffic, just remember the average IQ is 100, be careful! LOL!
beischens: Why would you assume your charitable deductions are greater than mine? Why even say anything like that?
I guess that means you won't be sending me any money. It's just as well, I would probably spend it on booze, drugs, or loose women.
TRCPA: Meat processing? Maybe powdered beef jerky? Let me guess, for the military?
beischens: If you have money to throw away, maybe you could help a needy family. Or give it to me! LOL!
trosh1: Third party analysis of OTC companies is not very common. Sometimes there are promoters hired by the OTC companies to give an "analysis", but since it is paid for, usually with stock, it's not worth much. Best to read the company filings, and always keep in mind on the OTC, if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Short term is usually the best way to "invest" in the OTC since they mainly move on PR's and momo players. In and out and repeat often!
LOL!
TRCPA: Is that a toll free number? How many shares of FASC to make the call? I am one cheap SOB! LOL!
The OS was 179 million on 2/4/05, there have been approximately 10 million shares traded since then. Since no long sells this stock, just buys, I would guess the OS is probably close to 184 million. I think the annual trips to the far east and Europe will have to be economy class next year. It would probably be a good idea for those so inclined to be prepared to defend the eventual reverse split. JMO.
Dang it! Can the KDS "wash"?
Posted by: THREES
In reply to: Doubloon who wrote msg# 2429 Date:3/1/2005 1:01:45 PM
Post #of 2444
The next processor may not be KDS, Bill has said there may be a processor that can wash the iron stains from the clay.
Big volume yesterday and no pps move. Better check the OS, either the company or a shareholder is dumping, IMO.
Link with stock quotes:
http://biz.yahoo.com/fool/050228/1109610000_1.html
Do you really care about alternative energy???? Then this is a good read for those not of the pump and dump investing style:
Take Energy Tech Back From the Day Traders
Monday February 28, 12:00 pm ET
By Bill Paul
Remember the giant North American power blackout in 2003? Beacon Power is working to prevent a recurrence by developing products that will make the power grid more reliable.
It's important work, though no more so than that being done by many other small, publicly traded energy technology firms. It is not an exaggeration to say that the energy security of the United States depends in large part on the ultimate success of companies such as Beacon, and also Capstone Turbine , Evergreen Solar , Plug Power , Active Power , and many others engaged in various aspects of energy tech -- from microturbines (Capstone) and photovoltaics (Evergreen) to fuel cells (Plug) and electricity storage systems (Active).
No place for day traders
With so much riding on their success, it is absolutely ridiculous that the financial well-being of these mostly developmental companies should be left to the vagaries of day trading. One has only to keep an eye on the Yahoo! message board for Beacon for several weeks to realize that day traders don't give a hoot about whether Beacon ultimately contributes to the nation's energy infrastructure. In December, one poster who was clearly fed up with all the snake-oil messages she had read posted the following: "Penny Stocks are ruined by Day Traders. Investors don't have any chance."
The fact that energy tech companies are even thought of as penny stocks is a national disgrace. It wasn't always so. The energy tech sector was born in the 1990s, the offspring of Silicon Valley and Enron. The former gave rise to irrational exuberance in all things technological, while the latter popularized the idea that energy could be a profitable tech sector just like computers, semiconductors, and wireless. With Wall Street firms pushing hard, shares of newly public companies like Capstone and Plug soared to many times their original prices.
When the bubble burst
But when the tech bubble burst and Enron imploded, energy tech became yesterday's news, even though the problems that energy tech is intended to solve (i.e., grid reliability, environmentally friendly fuel consumption, etc.) have worsened in the last several years. Through no fault of their own, many promising energy tech firms have fallen on hard times -- Beacon, for example, sells for around $1 a share, a tenth of its all-time high -- and some darn good energy tech financial analysts have lost their jobs.
Today energy tech is an orphan sector, with shareholders', and, less directly, individual companies' fortunes up one week and down the next depending on the latest federal or state government contract (or simply on the rumor thereof), generally awarded to demonstrate the feasibility of a given technology. It hasn't helped that federal energy policy has been stalemated for years over issues that have absolutely nothing to do with energy tech, such as drilling for oil in Alaska. Even the 2003 blackout failed to get Republicans and Democrats to put aside their differences and take steps to improve grid reliability.
Until Washington agrees on a national energy policy -- don't hold your breath -- energy tech likely will remain mostly a speculative investment. Still, there are ways for even conservative investors who consider themselves socially responsible to profit today by giving promising energy technologies the sound financial footing they need.
Hope in the form of ETFs
One way you'd probably never think of is to invest in General Electric . Among its many other businesses, GE is a diversified developer of emerging energy technologies such as wind, solar, and gas turbines. The company is also working to improve the efficiency of gas-fired power plants.
Another way is to buy shares of New Alternatives Fund , a self-described socially responsible mutual fund that invests in clean and renewable energy, plus fuel cells, energy conservation, and more. According to SocialFunds.com, New Alternatives was down 0.63% for the month of January but up 10.71% for the year ended Jan. 31.
Still another approach is to buy shares in an exchange traded fund (ETF). According to published reports, the first ETF targeting clean and green energy will start trading in March on the American Stock Exchange under the symbol PBW. It reportedly will be based on the Wilderhill Clean Energy Index, which includes nearly 40 companies, among them such potential long-term winners as Distributed Energy Systems, which is into power quality and reliability, and Fuelcell Energy, which is developing fuel cell power plants.
In the coming years many more energy tech firms currently being funded by venture capitalists are likely to go public, and I'd hate to see them meet the same fate as the current crop. ETFs, by adding a fusion of much-needed capital along with much-needed stability, are the best hope for wresting the energy tech sector away from day traders. I believe there are ultimately going to be several energy tech ETFs given the wide variety of not just technological but also geographical choices available for inclusion. Indeed, energy tech is a truly global phenomenon, with important developments occurring every day in Japan, Europe, and the U.S.
Fool contributor Bill Paul is a former Wall Street Journal and CNBC energy and environment reporter. He does not own shares in any of the companies mentioned in this article.
Launching an Innovative Canada-Japan Economic Framework
Economic ties have formed a cornerstone of the Canada-Japan relationship. Today, trade in goods and services spans the full spectrum of economic activity, bilateral investment has reached an all-time high and cooperation in science and technology is steadily increasing. In order to propel economic relations toward their full potential, the Governments of Canada and Japan will launch discussions for the development of a flexible, innovative Canada-Japan Economic Framework, as stipulated in the Joint Statement issued by Prime Ministers Martin and Koizumi on January 19th, 2005.
This framework will be structured to focus on forward-looking strategic priorities, including policy dialogue, facilitation and promotion of trade and investment, regulatory cooperation, as well as the promotion of cooperation in a wide range of other fields. Under this framework, building on the significant cooperation that already exists between the two countries, Canada and Japan will:
1. Address new and emerging economic challenges and opportunities, as well as respond in an effective and timely manner to the concerns of the Canadian and Japanese private sectors;
2. Promote economic cooperation through policy as well as business development initiatives, with a focus on enhancing both countries' capacities in innovation and in the knowledge-based economy;
3. Launch a joint study on the benefits and costs of further promotion of trade and investment and other cooperative issues.
The Canadian and Japanese Governments will develop this innovative economic framework within a period of six months. They will report to Prime Ministers on the result of the discussion for the development of the framework at the end of this timeframe.
An appropriate architecture for the oversight of the framework will be developed by the Co-Chairs of the Joint Economic Committee (JEC). In enhancing the role of the JEC, the framework will allow for, inter alia, appropriate and effective ways to take into account the interests raised by Canadian and Japanese private sectors, a focus on a selected number of key strategic issues of particular relevance every year, and the development of a more detailed process to address specific trade and investment issues.
Priority Areas of Cooperation
a. Social Security Agreement: Both governments endeavour to expedite negotiations on a bilateral social security agreement, aiming at reaching a substantial agreement at the earliest possible time, fully recognizing its significance in increasing and facilitating two-way investment between the two countries.
b. Cooperation on Anticompetitive Activities: Welcoming that Canada and Japan have reached agreement in principle on major elements of the draft cooperation agreement on the anticompetitive activities, the two sides will cooperate closely in, inter alia, combating cross-border cartels by active implementation of the agreement once it comes into effect.
c. Canada-Japan Food Safety Cooperation: Given the increase in globalized food trade, new inspection technologies and new risks, there are many challenges that both countries share in the area of food safety. The two governments will co-operate and share experiences to respond to these challenges.
d. Customs Cooperation: Reaffirming the importance of customs cooperation, especially its usefulness in combating smuggling and enhancing the security and facilitation of the international trade supply chain, and recognizing the value of exchanges of information and expertise in customs operations, the two governments will start consultations with a view to concluding a bilateral customs cooperation arrangement as soon as possible.
e. Trade Facilitation: Reaffirming the importance of the multilateral negotiations on trade facilitation following the July 2004 negotiated outcome at the WTO and in recognition of the close link to trade facilitation of the work on expediting and simplifying trade procedures to expand world trade and enhance administrative efficiency, the two governments will continue to work together through their contact in relevant venues at the WTO and in other relevant fora to progress the work of the WTO Negotiating Group on Trade Facilitation towards a successful conclusion.
f. Transportation: The two governments will continue the existing dialogue on air transportation between their aeronautical authorities.
g. Investment: The two governments will collaborate on events aimed at promoting the mutual benefits and conditions of two-way investment so that companies in both countries can capitalize on the benefits of engagement in global production and supply chains. Leaders from Canadian and Japanese business communities will be invited to participate in these high-profile programs. Japan External Trade Organization's (JETRO) initiatives and Investment Partnerships Branch of International Trade Canada's programs for the promotion of mutual investment will be discussed. The Governments of Canada and Japan will also discuss points of interest and commonality on investment policy in the bilateral, regional and multilateral context.
h. Science and Technology: The two governments seek to broaden the scope and role of the current cooperation under the Canada-Japan Agreement on Cooperation in Science and Technology with a view to (i) facilitating and increasing public and private sector exchanges; (ii) fostering collaboration in leading areas of scientific and technological innovation such as life sciences, information communication technologies, earth sciences, environment, space, renewable energy and advanced materials; and (iii) developing programs and activities to support women in science, engineering and technology. This expanded science and technology cooperation between Canada and Japan will seek to build closer ties between advanced technology related institutions and the respective private sectors toward the commercialization of new technologies.
i. Information and Communication Technology (ICT): The two governments will enhance their efforts to promote exchange of information on their respective ICT strategies, in order to share knowledge on the development of new markets, including ubiquitous network society. The existing Canada-Japan Telecommunications Policy Consultations will continue to provide a forum to exchange perspectives on telecommunications policy issues and emerging technologies, with a view to exchanging information on best practices and enhancing collaboration.
j. E-commerce: Considering the already existing informal cooperation between Canada and Japan in this sector, the two governments will develop a strategy to better integrate and enhance those exchanges at the private sector level, with a view to promoting more efficient communication and implementing agreed upon e-commerce solutions.
k. E-Government: Canada and Japan have exchanged information regarding their respective approaches and progress on e-Government and are committed to continuing this valuable dialogue. To that end, Canada and Japan will continue to collaborate in a variety of fora for the promotion of their e-Government initiatives with a view to providing the public with better access to government information over the Internet for the facilitation of their business and other activities.
l. Energy and Natural Resources: The two governments will continue the exchange of policy expertise for the development and use of natural resources and energy in a sustainable manner through existing multilateral frameworks.
m. Climate Change: With a view to building on the existing successful bilateral cooperation for the negotiation and implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, Canada and Japan will conduct ad hoc consultations on climate change policy involving the participation of officials from key departments, ministries and agencies from both countries. The goal is to promote more intensive cooperation through informal meetings on the key policy areas under consideration for the post-2012 period and the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol.
n. Tax Convention: Canada and Japan will informally discuss their existing bilateral tax convention, in order to exchange concerns and examine issues raised by both countries.
o. Tourism Promotion: The two governments will cooperate on increasing tourism in both directions between Canada and Japan. In this regard, the Government of Canada fully recognizes the importance to the Government of Japan of the "Visit Japan Campaign." To this end also, the two governments express their continued commitment to the Canada-Japan Tourism Conference.
Joint Study on Bilateral Trade, Investment and Cooperative Issues
The two governments will launch a study on the benefits and costs of further promotion of trade and investment as well as other cooperative issues between the two countries.
For this purpose, the Joint Study will identify and describe the current status of the bilateral economic relationship, including the identification of areas for further development. It will subsequently consider pursuing various cooperative bilateral trade and economic initiatives to reenergize the relationship.
A report on the Joint Study will be submitted to the Prime Ministers within one year of agreement on the Economic Framework. Further details of modalities will be determined by the two governments as expeditiously as possible. In setting up the Joint Study, both governments will give appropriate consideration to the interests of the private sector.
http://www.dfait-maeci.gc.ca/ni-ka/2005_Launch_Econ_Framework-en.asp
OT: Good site for currency and gold prices, if you follow such things:
http://forex-markets.com/quotes_composite.htm
techisbest: Great list! I think they all should be topics of discussion at the next shareholders meeting!
Weird volume days, hot and cold, but not much pps movement.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=FASC.OB
sambeaux: Big congratulations on ALMI, I didn't know you owned any!
Screening? You guys really should try this:
http://screen.yahoo.com/funds.html
mick and Argyll: Thanks for the additional info.
mick: Or anyone, do you have a link for the Chester filing to the SEC? I can't find anything, they are pink sheeted, but no filings come up at Pink Sheet site. Thanks for any help.
"Chester Mining filed for a Planned Sale of 100,000 shares of ALMI with the SEC on 01/17/2005. They estimated the potential proceeds at $420,000. That equates to a price per share of $4.20 !!!"
Pros See More Life in Bull Market
Saturday February 19, 1:33 pm ET
By Meg Richards, AP Business Writer
Skepticism Reigns, but Professionals Say Put Trepidation Aside, There's More Life in Bull Market
NEW YORK (AP) -- Any investors who read their January financial statements might be feeling a little too shell-shocked to go back into the market. Put your trepidation aside, professional investors say, because there are plenty of reasons to be buying.
While stocks have recovered somewhat from their poor performance last month, the Standard & Poor's 500 remains stubbornly negative for the year, leaving investors with little motivation to buy. And while money is making its way back into stocks -- TrimTabs Investment Research estimates $7.5 billion has flowed into domestic equity funds since Jan. 27, compared to outflows up to that point -- the lack of enthusiasm for equities is palpable.
Amid the gloom that's hanging over the market, however, a quiet bullishness prevails among professional investors, who point to a robust economy, relatively low interest rates, tame inflation, strong corporate profits and positive earnings growth.
In a quarterly letter sent to shareholders earlier this month, Bill Miller, portfolio manager of the highly regarded Legg Mason Value Trust (LMVTX) said he's quite optimistic about 2005. After a 29 percent increase in the S&P 500 in 2003 and an almost 11 percent increase in 2004, companies are still setting records in terms of profits, cash flow, returns on equity and levels of cash as a percentage of assets, Miller said, yet skepticism reigns.
"I have seen investors more bearish than they are now, but I have never seen more angst amidst such opportunity as there is today," Miller wrote. "Valuations are not demanding, especially in a world of low inflation and low nominal interest rates. Mergers and acquisitions should boom this year, providing windfalls for the shareholders of takeover targets."
Moreover, Miller said, "I would expect corporate share buybacks to accelerate and dividend growth to remain strong. High returns on equity and low nominal growth means lots of excess cash is available to be used for shareholders' benefit."
Failing to take advantage of such opportunities because of a sense of foreboding or a fear of loss would be a great mistake, argues Miller, a widely respected value investor who has earned a reputation for his market savvy -- he's outperformed the S&P 500 for 14 straight years, a feat unmatched by any other mutual fund manager. But he's far from alone in his belief that opportunities abound in equities.
"The bull market is in its fourth year, but it can go on a lot longer. The trends and the economy and the market are still positive," said Alfred E. Goldman, chief market strategist with A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis, who is forecasting returns of up to 8 percent this year. "And there are a lot of bears around. That's bullish. The reason investors should think about being a buyer is that the economy remains healthy."
Yet the market remains persistently glum. Many investors remain fixated on January's dismal performance, and some are still distracted by the January barometer, which suggests the first month foreshadows trading for the rest of the year. Goldman, noting that a down January has predicted a down year precisely half the time since 1970, considers the barometer a hoax, and blames the market's recent lull on the dramatic rally that began in October. "We were cruising for a bruising and we got one," he said.
Of course, it's harder to make money in a more mature bull market. It's more challenging for companies to increase their earnings. Larger, higher-quality stocks, particularly defensive growth stocks with steady revenues, such as consumer products companies, pharmaceuticals and food stocks, may be better positioned than small-caps and riskier issues. Dividends are attractive. And when every percentage point of total return counts, buying low becomes more important than ever. Down days present buying opportunities.
"The best time to buy stocks is when you're most uncomfortable buying stocks," Goldman said. "The worst time to buy them is when it's easy to buy them, emotionally."
Regrettably, small investors rarely buy the right stocks at the right time, a painful point driven home by recent fund flow data. Flows have been weak so far this year, and during January, the only money going into stocks was going overseas. Only in the last several weeks has more money been coming into U.S. equity funds than global funds, said Charles Biderman, president of TrimTabs.
"Here's the truth ... whenever the percentage of new money going into global funds is very high, it's typically right after the dollar has made a new low," Biderman said. "They miss it. They always start to buy global funds after the dollar has started to turn up. The truth about individuals is flow follows performance. When flows become big, for whatever reason, it's usually a turning point. Flows are typically a lagging indicator to the market and a contrary indicator at extremes."
Meanwhile, almost no money has gone into tech funds, a sector that has fallen far out of favor; the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index has slumped 5.4 percent, year-to-date. For Biderman, who remains confident about the economy, this was an opportunity too good to resist. He recently bought shares of the Nasdaq 100 Trust exchange-traded fund (QQQQ) for a portfolio he keeps for his children.
"The time to really invest is when everyone seems nervous. If you're a long-term player and you're investing a portion of your money in the market every month, just buy a cheap index fund and forget about it." Biderman said. "The biggest mistake people make is when they stop investing during bad times, because they miss the benefits. That's how dollar-cost-averaging works. It's harder to buy when everybody is worried, but it's worth it."
Still an "iffy" market out there:
Sustained oil prices should help the THE WILDERHILL CLEAN ENERGY INDEX, IMO.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EECO&t=6m
Wall St. Week Ahead: Inflation, Rates Eyed
Sunday February 20, 8:39 am ET
By Anupama Chandrasekaran
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks could show some weakness this week as earnings season winds down, while inflation and interest-rate worries stoke investors' concerns about future profits.
Oil prices around $48 a barrel could also keep up the pressure on the markets, strategists said.
On Monday, U.S. financial markets will be closed for the Presidents Day holiday.
Retailers Home Depot Inc. (NYSE:HD - News), Gap Inc. (NYSE:GPS - News), J.C. Penney Co. Inc. (NYSE:JCP - News) and Limited Brands Inc. (NYSE:LTD - News) are scheduled to report their quarterly results in the coming week as the curtain drops on the earnings season.
On Friday, Wall Street got a warning shot from a bigger-than-expected jump in U.S. producer prices, excluding food and energy. The core Producer Price Index shot up 0.8 percent in January, the government reported.
That increase -- the biggest gain since December 1998 and well above the Street's expectation for a 0.2 percent rise -- fanned inflation fears and bolstered a growing expectation that the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates well into 2005.
The PPI report came on the heels of Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's remarks last week to Congress that interest rates were still "fairly low," a signal that they will keep rising.
"I see a weak market as investors digest the earnings news, Greenspan's testimony and the producer prices data, which is clearly inflationary," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer of Solaris Asset Management.
For the week, stocks fell. The blue-chip Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI - News) ended down 0.1 percent. The Standard & Poor's 500 index (CBOE:^SPX - News) finished the week down 0.3 percent for the week and the Nasdaq (NasdaqSC:^IXIC - News) ended down 0.9 percent.
CPI ON THE RADAR SCREEN
Inflation pressures, higher interest rates and high oil prices will not only hurt consumer spending, but will also raise the cost of doing business, strategists said. That spells bad news for corporate profits, already headed for a slowdown in 2005, they noted.
In such an environment, the U.S. Consumer Price Index for January, which will give a reading on inflation at the retail price level, will be closely watched this week.
"The CPI report on Wednesday will be important as investors will be looking to see if the jump in producer prices will translate into a rise in consumer prices," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at brokerage Spencer Clarke.
"If that happens, it will be a negative for the stock market as it will signal that the Fed will have to get more aggressive in raising rates to combat inflation," he added. "Further, higher prices in general and higher interest rates will weigh on consumer spending."
Both the overall CPI and the core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, are expected to have risen 0.2 percent in January, according to economists polled by Reuters.
Other economic data on the week's calendar include the consumer confidence index for February from the Conference Board on Tuesday and durable goods orders for January on Thursday. Weekly oil inventory data and jobless claims figures will also get attention.
"There is a clear danger from energy prices, which have been moving back up again," said Joseph Battipaglia, chief investment officer for Ryan, Beck & Co. "Any suggestion that oil inventories are being drawn down or there are potential supply disruptions will show up right away in the oil market going up and the stock market going down."
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for March delivery settled at $48.35 a barrel on Friday.
Oil prices are lower than crude's record high of $55.27 a barrel last October, but are still up about 12 percent so far this year.
How about this?
Huh? Tee shirts? Guess you have to make a buck here somehow! LOL!
OT: "Safe" nano play for long term????
FEI Company's (nasdaq: FEIC - news - people ) "Tools for Nanotech" tagline underscores the importance the company places on nanotechnology. While other corporations with a history in semiconductor equipment are content riding the ebbs and flows of the chip cycle, FEI has aggressively sought to become the leading provider of tools for atomic-scale characterization, analysis and manipulation. Its ion-beam and electron-beam microscopes are standards in research labs worldwide. But the Oregon-based company has also recognized that equipment purchases by nanotech centers and research labs only scratch the surface of the potential market. So FEI is gearing up for the next nanotechnology build-out by nanotech start-ups flush with venture capital and established corporations adopting broad nano-initiatives.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=FEIC
RE: OT OT OT OT OT OT: GEPT
Just got in and saw GEPT did NOTHING! Looks like the PR this morning was just an update on old news. Congrats to the ALMI holders! Very nice for a Friday before a long weekend! Still think that is just a hype and momo on nano, but players are making money! Have a good weekend! Watch GEPT, it may have it's day too.
OT OT OT OT OT OT: GEPT
May have a good run starting today, I got a few shares at $4 a couple of days ago. Only 4 million float. Don't do any DD, fundamentals suck! LOL!
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050218/185107_1.html