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OLGR: Hydraulics co. stock up 70 pct on "day-trader frenzy"
Fri Jun 17, 2005 03:52 PM ET
NEW YORK, June 17 (Reuters) - Stock in a small hydraulics company, Oilgear Co. (OLGR.O: Quote, Profile, Research) , rocketed over 70 percent for no apparent reason on Friday, leaving its chief executive officer blaming "day-trader frenzy."
"We think we know the reason," David Zuege told Reuters by telephone from company headquarters in Milwaukee. "A reliable source in the market told us the sudden spike was the latest move in the day-trader frenzy to pick up small-cap energy firms.
"But we're not even in the energy business, we make hydraulic equipment and have done for 85 years," he said.
Stock in Oilgear, which manufactures hydraulic components and electronic controls for the primary metals, auto, chemical and petroleum industries, rose all day on Nasdaq after opening at $10.55. In late afternoon trading, the shares were selling for $16.67, which was $6.91 or up 70.8 percent.
"Last quarter was good and business is good, but nothing for any rational analyst to say would double the price," said Zuege. Oilgear's sales were $26 million in the first quarter.
"Someone paid $23 for our shares, that's crazy," he said, adding that there were two previous sudden jumps this year when the stock soared unusually high before dropping back to the original level.
"The previous two were out of the blue. The stock went up and there was no fundamental or economic reason for it," said Zuege. "Of course, I'm always happy to see the stock go up."
Maybe a carbon fiber stent or Neoprene.
I think they have developed a plastic stent. No way a coating on a metal stent makes it "disappear" to MRI, IMO.
tenzzi, thanks for calling. They may have a PR to release before selling more shares, IMO.
Maybe the Transfer Agent has been instructed not to release OS up to date, just the last filing figure. Lots of companies, BIPH for one, do not allow the agent to release the figures between filings.
Waitedg, I think you are a glutton for punishment with IDCO. At least trade it rather than hold it long term like FASC. Just my gut feel on IDCO with little DD, could be wrong again! LOL!
Alternate Energy: Time to invest????
http://biz.yahoo.com/ifunds/050615/20050614_energy_com_etf_jb.html
Currency/gold/silver link:
http://forex-markets.com/quotes_composite.htm
Oil/natural gas, etc. link:
http://www.futuresource.com/markets/market.jsp?id=energy
Monetary Cap on Gold to Be Lifted!
By Mike Swanson
June 15, 2005
wallstreetwindow.com
Gold is going up again, but it is no surprise. The commitment of traders report for the end of May showed that commercial traders covered 8,846 short positions and went long 10,552 contracts in the final week of that month. They also closed May by being net short only 60,463 contracts. They have probably even covered more since then. We’ll know for sure when the next report comes out. Remember, each major gold bottom in the past five years has come when the commercials were net short only 40-60k contracts.
The best news though is that the macro picture is lining up for gold. The biggest factor that has kept gold stocks down over the past year and a half is the Federal Reserve’s cycle of interest rate hikes that has given strength to the dollar. There are signs that we are seeing the end of this cycle, and once the cycle ends the next bull rally in gold stocks will be in full force.
According to political columnist Robert Novak, Chairman Greenspan “is described by close onlookers as confused by the economic data... The army of number crunchers at the Fed does not give Greenspan the statistical security blanket he craves. The Consumer Price Index's warning of inflation ahead is regarded by one Federal Reserve governor as ‘phony.’ Nevertheless, inflation concerns were rising at the Fed until weaker economic news prevailed going into last Tuesday's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Three days later, gains in employment reported on Friday suggested greater inflationary danger,” writes Novak.
Novak’s sources tell him that the Fed plans to continue to raise interest rates by a quarter a point “every time the open market committee meets, no matter what the economy looks like.”
I wouldn’t bet the farm on that. Eventually the Fed is going to stop raising interest rates. Historically, the Fed has always gone overboard when it has engaged in a cycle of interest rate hikes. This happened during their last cycle of interest rate hikes. During the last cycle, the last hike came in May of 2000 two months after the stock market topped out and the economy had begun to show signs of slowing down.
There are reasons to think that the Fed will be done raising interest rates sooner than most people think. First of all, long-term rates have been falling for the past two months and actually made a new low for the year three weeks ago. This usually happens at the end of a cycle of interest rate hikes as the long-term bond yield’s forecast the end of the cycle or the start of a cycle of lower rates.
In fact, if Alan Greenspan continues to raise interest rates, he will create an inverted yield curve; a situation in which short-term rates are higher than long-term rates. As hedge fund manager and Financial Sense commentator Frank Barbera writes:
“Yet another troubling factor has been the consistent narrowing of the Treasury Yield Curve, which late in the week, nearly inverted with the 2 Year Treasury yielding 3.62 and the 10 Year Bond yielding 4.10, a razor thin spread of just .48 basis points. As a gauge of liquidity, the ultra-flat yield curve is the market's mechanism for communicating to Fed Chairman Greenspan that he should stop raising interest rates at once. Think about it, another ¼ point hike in June would lift Fed Funds to 3.25% and probably press the 2 Year Note toward 3.80%. At that point, the 2 Yr-10Yr spread could be as thin as just .20 to .25 basis points.”
When you get an inverted yield curve it means that the bond market is forecasting an economic slowdown that will force the Fed to lower interest rates in the future. The last time this happened was in the first quarter of 2000.
Bill Gross and Paul McCulley, who run the largest bond fund in the world at Pimco, believe that the bond market is forecasting just such a slowdown. This is a contrarian view. The “so-called economic fundamentalists have been bellowing ever more stridently, if not angrily, that the bond market is nuts, totally ignoring strong April employment and retail sales data which have exposed the so-called soft patch in March data to be nothing but a mirage,” says McCulley.
McCulley thinks they are wrong. He notes that the ISM manufacturing index has been declining every month since it peaked out at 62.8 in January of 2004. It now sits at 53.3. A reading below 50 is a sign of contraction in the manufacturing sector and every time the ISM has dropped below 50 the Fed has never continued to raise interest rates. McCulley projects the ISM falling below 50 by the Fall.
A slowdown in the economy is consistent with what I have been saying about the stock market for the past couple of months. Going into this year, I argued that the market would likely make a stage three top as we moved into the summer and then roll over and begin a stage four decline by August or early Fall. The rotation of the individual sectors that make up the market has also convinced me that this view is correct. The recent rally has not changed my overall view of the big picture, even though I expect it could continue a little while longer.
The Fed funds futures contracts are projecting three more interest rate hikes this year, coming this month, August, and September. After that, the futures traders expect the Fed to sit on its hands into the end of the year. Barbera thinks the Fed won’t raise rates in September, and if McCulley is correct about the ISM he may be right.
The important point is that the end of the tightening cycle will have significant implications for the global markets. Since the Fed began raising interest rates in the first quarter of 2004 the XAU gold stock index has been trapped between a range of 113 and 77. Once the Fed stops raising interest rates the dollar should drop down to its long-term 80 support level and will likely break it. The monetary cap on gold will be lifted.
To find out what gold stocks Mike Swanson holds and plans on buying subscribe to his free Weekly Gold Report at http://wallstreetwindow.com/weeklygold.htm
****
PA starting to move after a so-so IPO. Announced a big increase in dividend giving approx. 7% yield. Using % trailing stop loss in case aliens shoot down their satellites or damaged by massive solar flare!!! LOL! Deal with China radio and they reach 90% of the world, gov and military contracts. In at $18.
GLW moving again after a short term base, nice turnaround story.
Got in at $11.15, looking for over $20, markets willing, in the next few months. Hey waitedg! I told you about this at $11!!
beigledog, call back and tell her you know Shikari.
Back to bashers/MM shorters? You can buy $100,000 worth at 2 cents and still lose 100% of your money. I have some stocks that are going up because of greatly improving fundamentals that have lots of "bashers", don't know about naked shorters, they probably aren't prevalent on good companies.
"There is a feeling that today will be make or break for Wall Street," said Angus Campbell, head of sales at Finspreads.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/050615/markets_stocks.html?.v=1
Is the Zeolite going into bulk transport or 50# bags? TIA.
Doubloon, I'm with Huggums on CYAD, just good for a quick play. Read their last filing, owe a bunch of back taxes and
on-going dilution to pay for the PR's. Some say their office is vacant.
Lonestar, got any others like VPHM at 2 bucks or less????? LOL!
Doubloon, GG indicated they are looking for acquistions to grow. I held WHT and GG prior to the merger, some talk about maybe NXG being a candidate for acquistion, but they are struggling with local approval to expand operations. May be a candidate if they ever get approval, their copper production greatly reduces their mining cost for gold.
Any thoughts on gold stocks? Gold price seem to be basing even though the Euro has lost strength against the USD and some of the gold stocks are beging to move. I hold some GG and it seems to be creeping up.
sambeaux, quite a few popped up today, and more than 10 cents:
http://finance.yahoo.com/gainers?e=o
Darn! No DD this weekend? Maybe we can revive the Mobile KDS or something new like Bat Guano processing. A report from Cardinal from the Rough Neck Bar and Grill about all the hands talking about Zeolite was very interesting a couple(?) of years ago, maybe a revisit to the bar is in order. Must be something new to check, IMO.
lonestar, I can't name any specific stocks, but if I remember correctly, being added to an index fund isn't an automatic pps rise. Many times it is already in the pps prior to listing and those few funds that have to follow an index can add gradually when a stock is listed. Going to the Russell 3000 is good, but doesn't necessarily mean a pps rise on that fact alone, IMO. That said, the company had to do the right things to get listed, and hopefully will continue doing so.
lonestar, some insider buying on VPHM too. Fundamentals look pretty good, some debt, but looks like they can handle it.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=VPHM
Waitedg, one thing about MEM, they are in the IPO, stock-offerings, and debt business, so I guess one should be careful about reading too much into insider purchases. Being in the biz, these guys know exactly how potential investors look at insider buying. That said, I still think it's worth watching for a long term buy and hold.
That should have said MEM Chairman, not CEO.
Waitedg, take a look at MEM for a long term hold. The CEO has been buying on the market. I should have grabbed some yesterday at $1.16 but was keeping some powder dry for TDYH. Up 10% today, I'm watching for another opportunity if it drops again. Any others' thoughts on MEM would be appreciated.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=MEM
mgk65, thanks, no terms or due dates included. Worse case, old Tandem takes the assets back, or gets preferred shares that basically get paid all the oil revs. Wait and see, I guess the recent sellers had advance notice of the news.
I wasn't aware of any notes, so much for pink sheet "investing".
No huge sell off, but I hope they follow up with something good.
Otherwise the pps will keep dropping, IMO. Did they cover the notes in the "Analyst Report"?
"On March 1, 2005, the Company issued notes to acquire the stock of Tandem Energy Corporation (TEC). The Company was not able to secure financing on satisfactory terms to retire the notes before their June 1, 2005, maturity date."
tenzzi, can I help?
Waitedg, no telling what TDYH will bottom out before the next PR. I've got another low-ball order in for today, but I'm happy with the amount of shares I have now. I'm down, and a few more "cheap" shares would add some icing to the cake. Good luck with your patience.
OT: Setonian, no sense of humor on the FASC board, all my posts get deleted. It's like the FASC Bagholders Funeral Board.
Chances are ZOLT supplied the carbon fiber for the turbine blades.
Looks like the buyers have stepped up to the plate. Good volume and looks like buyers willing to match the sellers. I have a low ball order again today just to see if I get lucky.
twojugglers, if the KDS is so great for paper mills, why didn't AP order a couple of dozen? They are supposedly under a lot of pressure to clean up their act. Chicken poo, now paper mills. You know, when something works well, it usually sells easily.
OT: Waitedg,
Did you do this? LOL!
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050527/275179.html?.v=1
OT: Waitedg,
Be very careful with IDCO, looks like a stock-selling pump and dump to me. Do a Google on Keybase Management, supposedly an off-shore company buying shares of IDCO at $1.25 (LOL!). Keystone only appears to exist in IDCO PR's. A Bahamas off-shore company can be set up for about $1000 by a company insider, but does not reveal it in filings since the SEC has no way to check (as if they care).
I guess testing is not a good business plan if the pps is any indication. Maybe they should have tested the KDS before going public with the company.
TRCPA, they don't do it weekly or monthly and their earnings are reported per fully diluted taking into account future options etc. Plus percentage-wise the dilution is much less, say over a year.
techisbest, look the same to me. Stockchart is for 6 months and Big Chart is for a year. MACD's look the same pretty much except for the 6 months versus a year charts.
techisbest, I think one is a 20 day average and the other is not, or reverse, or backwards. Either way, chart indicators don't take dilution into account so they are not much use on penny stocks, IMO.