Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Nope.You?
Still have those puts from 284.45 yesterday and added to them today too early (am) but brought cost down by a dollar. Might have to hedge them with /es longs.
How are you doing today?
Singles and doubulls add up...
:)
Out 288.10.eom
Short again at 288.89.Edit: here we go...eom
Out 288.61.eom
Short 289.50. High risk trade.eom
After looking at a lot of data last night (which I should have done before I placed the eod short, not after) I saw that the current action could equally end up by Friday or Monday to the upside as well as to the downside. This includes the COT data for SPX which shows institutional buyers still heavily long and the fact that 284 is holding like a cement wall.
There is definitely cracks showing in the structure including the fact that SPY shares are shrinking the higher we get up per McClellan's excellent recent article.
However, I just don't think we're cooked yet. Soon, but not just yet. It gets very tricky here; the easy money has been made.
My trading yesterday was influenced by the board's mostly (very vocal) bearish sentiment and I chased price down and went short at the end of the day, something I haven't done for a long while.
FOMO, as they say.
Best regards.
~d
Hey Spartex!
There are currently arguments both pro and con for a continuation of the rally s/t, and I'm not sure which way I lean yet (although a little more bearish than last week). I'm sure everyone knows the con arguments, inclduing the wedge I mentioned and the constant distribution going on the past two weeks.
But don't forget the Fed, or that news that the virus is over will be an instant 100 point gap up in the market.
I just don't think a retest of the lows will happen until August at the very least until bears and bulls alike get frustrated and premium is worked off puts(think: November of 2018).
The recent black swan events took place when premium was very cheap.
I think you and Eli are right here in thinking that also. I also currently lean towards the possibility of a new price high (surprise!) in August. That's where 3270 could happen, maybe even the 3660 that was projected by Hurst methodology. Hurst methodology is not a goal, it's a self modifying system and the fact that the projection is there doesn't mean it will happen. Premium would sure get cheap if that happened. But that is one of my way out there paradigms I'm considering.
The next biggish Hurst low is due in late June and I think we test the wedge projection of 2555-2445 and bounce up in July.
I have a very bad feeling about September and think that's when we may test, or even exceed, the lows.
This could all change tomorrow, depending on what happens.
Best regards,
~d
Thanks, Fitzwell.:) Best regards.~d
Hi Spartex, thanks for the kudos, but they belong to Hunter and a few others. I actually was a little late.~d
`
Anyone see that (bearish) ascending wedge on the daily? Price declined out of the wedge on 4/20 and actually rose up to touch the top of it on 4/29. Been going sideways since.
Big move coming.
~d
It has to do with delta hedging and gamma. Dealers are net long gamma via real or synthetic puts/calls (+stock) and love gaps as a result. However, high gamma will also provide a floor underneath gaps down and result in mean reversion in a low vol environment.
Really? I was just about to post that Hunter may finally get his gap down tomorrow and we could see 283 at the open. I didn't agree with him yesterday, but posted on another thread that the gap up today at the bell was actually more bearish than if we had gapped down. Very little volume support here until 283.54 and the horizontal rectangle projects down to 282.
In any case, I'm short at slightly under 285.
On what do you base that projection?
Didn't hold. SPY had unfinished business at the 10 am lows (no re-test on lighter volume). Potential gap down tomorrow.~d
Closed all calls and in cash. Consistent big block selling at 286 and change.
Edit: Big block selling may not mean anything short term as everyone here knows.
Yes. It's worth learning if you have a head for math, which I don't. Are you good at those things?
Out 1/2 at 286.90
Edit: may not post final exit. Have a lot of things to do today.
I played options for many years and consistently lost money. For me the rule now as a straight long or short options player is to hit and run and keeps stops (mental) close.
I very rarely hold options more than a few days and usually day trade them.
The exception for this strategy are those who are experts in the greeks (which I am not) and are playing very sophisticated trades. One trader I know is currently buying straddles on the SPX and selling straddles within the long straddles based on some very sophisticated analysis using the greeks and other metrics.
Way beyond my league.
Just my two cents.
Thank you, great post.eom
Long since 285.90. High risk trade.~eom
While you were posting that, Governor Cuomo was probably placing an ad for 29,000 ventilator masks on the black market.
:)
dowdeva
registered democrat
Great support MA, it should hold and I'm probably wrong, but I keep having the feeling we're going to resolve to the upside (bear trap?).
PS: Watch the first two minutes of the video, Glen and I'll tell you the rest. It's important. Please.
Yup, very bearish in my book. Eom
Thanks for the kudos, but no, I'm not that good.
I held calls from 278 to 281 on Monday to 287.50 this morning. I didn't sell yesterday because the decline at 3:30 last night looked like an algo sweep. But I did open up a short call spread on globex as protection (2885/2990). Then a little after the bell sold calls as I was lucky to have the decline reverse to yesterday afternoon high (almost), and bought puts. A little late because I'm having issues with my platform, which is why I closed puts too soon.
Thanks though. Fair warning, make a lot of wrong calls and get stopped out often.
Good luck to you.
I dunno', he just looks like he likes women, not little girls. Just my opinion, though, no research to support it.
Closed shorts (puts) at SPY equiv 286.30. eom
Closed longs and opened shorts at bell. eom
OT: Please watch this, archive it and send it to everyone you know. It is vitally important that it be seen by as many as possible.
In current market conditions I would probably find a gap up more bearish than a gap down.~d
Thanks, North and Glen for updates. I am glad you added some additional insight to your system, North.
Best regards to the board.
~D
I closely watched options OI and volume on a daily basis for years - and any severe decline usually happens when puts premium is fairly inexpensive. 'Da boys' are just like us at the mall, they like to buy on deep discount.
And right now they are not.
I am not speaking of corrections, I am speaking of what just happened now and at the end of 2018, etc.
~d
3:30 PM decline today was way too vertical. We should rally to test today's highs at the very least sometime this week, if not tomorrow.
On the other hand, not much support for SPY under 285 till 283. Sold some 2900/2905 /es call spreads that expire tomorrow against longer dated ITM calls. Will roll them up for same expiry (tomorrow) if hit.
Cuomo would break down the US and sell it for parts. Hey, wait a minute, they're all dong that too.
;)
~d
And a pedophile. Well, most of them are pedophiles, one of the only good things about Trump is he's not. ~d
Scaled into longs Monday per previous post. Still holding.~d
Hi Fitzwell,
The 2664 projection is not for this week's nested low, which should be any day. I would have to go back to my charts and see what cycle it fits. It could happen, though, anything could happen in this enviornment.
Re: the 3660 projection. Two years ago I received a projection for 3350, which I immediately dismissed as impossible.
Dr. Jerry,
This looks like it is going to be a great trade. You are most definitely not crazy, 9 out of 10 doctors say!
:)
~D
Can you support that claim with anything?eom
Well, looks like 278 will be printed Monday morning. So far, that is actually much better for the argument for continuation of the current rally, than if we had gapped up and rallied from there on Monday.
~D
Two, one up and one down.
The short term one down currently resides in the 264 area. The one up, to the best of my memory, is at 3660. That one is long term, about 2 months out.
Yes, 3660.
There is a Bradley turn on May 10th +/-. I had suggested that it may be an upturn rather than the downturn that many are expecting if we continued to go lower from Thursday, but it too soon to know yet. If we turn up tomorrow it could still be a trend change down, I suppose. I have seen the Bradley turns actually act as accelerations of previous trends.
Best regards.
~d
Hurst nested low this week, possibly this last Friday, or this Monday. Should rally after that. Bigger low in June, then really big low (a fasten your seat-belts low) in September.