I think TIV's game plan is, they could care less about timing, momentum or stock buying exuberance (all the above right now) and they will do it on their own schedule, even if it means we lose this current 52-week high momentum and enthusiasm and the pps suffers because of it. I keep saying timing is everything and in my opinion, if TIV doesn't deliver fairly soon on their end, you will see some folks getting impatient and there will be some large sell orders. Personally, I think its crazy to sell at this juncture, because we know, or believe, a good PR is forthcoming about all the their recent drilling/reworking operations at Temblor which will send this thing into the "short squeeze zone", but there are traders who will be satisfied by a 20% profit in a few weeks/month and move on to the next tip if this thing stagnates (like right now) and softens (like right now).

Geo

Jonsie, stock question...With a "negative float" with TIV (based on naked shorting?), as we have heard, how does the 1 mil shares, or 5% of the outstanding, support, or not support, that theory. Seems to me the "no more shares" theory and the "negative float" theory are not true based on the action this week.

In any case, it sure is nice to see green all week with strong volume. I would imagine it wouldn't take too much right now to light the "rocket fuel" and start the "short squeeze".

Geo

I hope this strong performance is based on "Proven" pending success, as in millions of barrels of "Probable" reserves being elevated to the "Proven" reserves category based on their recent Temblor wells...

As we keep saying, the rocket fuel is ready to be lit by that PR right about now and that theoretical short "trigger point" of $11-12(?) becomes very real, near term.

Geo

That's for sure Jonsie, you see virtually no insider selling at TIV. Lynn just keeps buying and has for many years. His periodic "gifting" is always fairly negligible in volume and always for a good cause. And very acceptable in my book!

You know what’s interesting, tomorrow is TIV's 1-year anniversary of their 52 week high ($10.18). Now wouldn't that be sweet if TIV came out with that great PR about flow rates tomorrow on the anniversary, which would likely send the pps past $10.18. We can only hope...

Geo

OT: You know your tequilas! Maybe they can even fly me to Jalisco, the only state in Mexico which makes that special 100% "blue Agave" tequila, for a "plant tour" and tequila tasting. LOL

You know whats funny, there are some "folks" on the other board who actually think I'm a short. And why would I introduce large fund managers, investors, relatives, etc, to TIV, buy on dips myself and own so many 10's of K's if I was "short". And, be so elated on this run and when it hits double figures so the short squeeze sets in? Heck, I don't even know how to sell short. Do you? Oh well, let them wallow in ignorance.

Geo

You know that big Las Vegas fund manager I introduced to TIV awhile back to test the waters before jumping in with his "biggest clients", each worth 100's of millions, well, when he called me Friday night he was so elated by my TIV stock "tip" he told me he plans on "taking care of me" for this. Do you think thats means margies for life? LOL

Geo

Happy Birthday Jonsie! 40? Well, at least we feel that age (younger?) huh! LOL

If I lived closer I would drop by for a long hike or bike ride and a couple margies afterwards.

Geo

Heck, we're not going to have "nuggets" under the tree, we're talking boulders!

Suuuuwwweeet!

Geo

Good morning Jonsie! Things still looking really good at TIV! Already above $9. We may be seeing a close above $10 today and that sure will get the shorts puckered up! I imagine a flow rate PR (or something better) right now will start the long awaited short squeeze!

On the gold front, I would be surprised if the Opus group has any "direct" financial involvement in it. As you know, the government provides excellent tax benefits to "active" oil & gas investors and I imagine that is one of the primary driving forces for the Opus folks, besides a lot of other factors when investing in under exploited oil and gas properties and "company maker" wells.

Geo

Good to hear from you BigMoney. Yes it is, CHAFRICKINCHING!

Looks like we cleared, or are clearing, the $8.5 resistance barrier so it really could be double figures and short squeeze from here. As Jonsie said, an announcement right about now about flow rates, at this barrier breaking and enthusiastic buying point, could really send this thing into double digits real quick.

I like it! But thats why I own so many shares in TIV and have been holding them for long long time!

It just may be an early "margie time" today to celebrate breaking the $8.5 resistance barrier, a huge milestone!

Geo

Finally plowing through the $8.5 "Wall"??? Looks very possible this AM.

Geo

Good morning Jonsie! From my experience working with reputable third engineering firms to generate SEC approved reserve reports and as an expert witness for SEC reserve designations (damage amount for proven reserves only), I don't recall any "180 day rule". It may be an arbitrary time frame whereby if wells produce steadily for that amount of time, their reserves would definitely fall into the "Proven Reserve" category and it may even elevate "Probable" and "Possible" reserves into a higher (i.e. Probable to Proven?) category. Most likely, the 6 month time frame may simply be the total amount of time it takes to get a bunch new wells drilled/reworked and on line (basis for reserves revision), get a third party engineering report completed, submit it to the SEC and receive back the SEC blessing.

Geo

I also noticed the Attica report had many typos and obviously written by a layman or non-oilman, but it was definitely very positive for TIV. According to some on the other board, Attica is the "Big Fish", or its clients are "Big Fish" so theoretically when (key word there) TIV does come out with some positive news about increased flow rates from Temblor or some of their other highly valued properties, which they will eventually, the Big Fish clients will jump in big time.

Geo

Good morning Jonsie, it would interesting to see a plot (hint, hint) of the releases of the various TIV valuation reports (Cohen & Attica) and the resultant pps action. Flat? Up? Down? I'm wondering if we got any "push" from the Cohen report since it came out weeks ago. Its obviously too early to know if the Attica report will have any positive effect, although the pps has dropped a tad since it came out. Maybe it hasn't been distributed to their "world class wealthiest" clients yet? We can only hope.

The reason why I ask that question is because if there is no positive effect from it, like having the pps go up enough to indemnify the cost (whether paid in cash or stock) then perhaps its not a wise investment of our dollars? I would rather see that money sunk into enhancing production as fast as possible, especially if us shareholders derive no positive benefit from those reports.

Geo

One of the usual "soon, very soon" guys on the other board posted it and said he is "trying" to figure out how to attach the report. Then one of the other "soon, very soon" guys told him not to post it because it would be doing the short's DD. It all sounds pretty suspect to me, especially because no one can find the link/report/etc., but maybe true this time?

Geo

Jonsie, what's your take on this purported TIV buy rec. from this "monstrous" Swiss hedge fund called Attica Asset MGT? Heard of them? We sure could use that shot in the arm right about now, sans no huge PR about increased flow rates anytime soon, to get us over this seemingly "hard-to-hurdle" resistance barrier.

Geo

Jonsie, what is your impression of today's trading. There seems to be a lot more interest on the buy side today but at the same time there are "traders" who want out at this heavy resistance level who apprently are thinking it still can't break through it and will fall back down into the $7's so they can buy back in and get "free" shares. Its tempting to do that (i.e sell now and buy back in cheaper) considering its been in a fairly reliable "pattern" of being blocked by this impenetrable resistance level, but I would be afraid of having it finally take off and pay a lot more on its way up. But, buying on the way up sure is better than buying on the way down. With that said, I will do what I have been doing for years, just hold what I have and buy more on dips. Its nice having all my shares finally in an unrestricted status (>2 years of holding) so I don't have to go thru the continuous (every 90 days) 144 filings to keep them "free trading".

Geo

Jonsie, here's the rest of that earlier message to you. I was typing too fast and must have hit the "wrong" key and it displayed the beginning of my message.

TIV back on the Naked Short list again. Did we get some "Rocket Fuel" back after losing 35% in the last 6 months?

As you said, right now would be a great time to hear some substantial news (oil flow) and break thru this low-mid 8's resistance "hammer", but we've missed this timing many times over the last few months so I wouldn't count on it anytime "soon". But you never know, TIV is definitely in better "substantial news shape" these days, especially after drilling those first two Temblor delineation/core hole wells and encountering much more hydrocarbons than their "pre-drilling maps" apparently suggested. Plus, they are rapidly crewing more rigs for more drilling to exploit those added reserves so you know some great news is forthcoming one of these days.

I have a good feeling about TIV finally taking off (hitting double digits) before year end. We'll see... I've had this feeling many times at this level over the last few months only to watch it drop back down to the low $7's. If it does drop back down to $7's again, you can bet I'll be ready with buy orders.

Geo

Good morning Jonsie! That is very interesting about having TIV back o the SHO list the

Jonsie, regarding the "Golden Cross" we had a few weeks ago, and of course the potential to "light up" trader screens and bring in some needed fresh new big buying, is that event a thing of the past now or is it still developing and still can help us? Is there another chart event, like a "Platinum Cross", when we break the $8.5 resistance barrier, which will give the chart that "perfect storm" set up and really light up screens to bring in fresh new big buying blood who are waiting for that rare event to develop?

Geo

Thanks Jonsie! Yes, there is no better time than right now for the infamous "big news coming", we keep hearing about on the other board. And of course, that "big news" really needs to be about something "big", like flow rates from the first two Temblor wells which had 100's or 1000's of feet of pay, or oil shows, many weeks ago. Maybe it just takes months to hook up one of those wells due to all the new tank batteries they need for all that production? We can only hope...

Timing is everything and one of these times the "big news" really needs to coincide with the "enthusiastic buying" we keep experiencing at this tenacious $8.5 resistance level, to give us that added push from possibly big guns, to finally get us by it.

Geo

Well Jonsie, here we are knocking at the major resistance door again. Maybe this time we can sail by it but, as you know, its going to take some serious buying at ask with strong volume.

Whadda think?

Geo

Well thats kind of amazing, the short interest is down ~ 35% in the last 5 months (since June) and yet we have had no positive double digits effect from that so-called "Rocket Fuel", which was supposed to light the short squeeze of epic proportions. I guess it has at least kept the pps in the $7 - $8 range, which is much better than $5's. Looks like they covered right under our noses without having to "pay to play". Bummer. I thought we had them right where we wanted them....in a bear trap.

Oh well, I too am hoping for a "much better than expected PR", to force at least some of the remaining shorts to cover in earnest and not at their own pace. But if it comes in 6 months, there might not be anymore "massive" short interest covering, as it might all be history. As I always say, timing is everything!

Geo

I called Schwab to see if they are still interested in "borrowing" my shares at 7% interest and they are. Since I have been buying more TIV each week since the time I originally received the offer package from them (ie. 10/9) I now have way more shares to figure in so my monthly income would be significant. It sure is tempting considering how TIV is still stagnating between $7 & $8 and it would totally take care of my daughter's monthly university costs. And I really doubt my < 100K shares would make much difference in the price (shorts getting shares to short).

Maybe I'll call them back and see if they'll give me 10%, or more, since I heard the interest rate is somewhat negotiable. But, in the end, I doubt I'll pull the trigger on it as I sure wouldn't want to do anything to help the shorts get shares to drive down the price further and hurt my equity more, as they have been doing here for many months (years?).

Geo

Thanks Jonsie for that great explanation. Makes perfect sense. Maybe when the institutions unloaded about a mil shares the "big gun longs" scooped them up, or some at least.

Another question..what is your take on the "no more shares" theory whereby shorts can't get shares to short? Of course we have heard that mantra on the other board for many many months (years?) yet it seems, if in fact shorts still are shorting to hold down the pps, the shorts are getting shares. Just curious from your experienced stock trading perspective if there are any indicators which point in one direction or the other. Do you still believe a "short squeeze" is still a distinct possibility here based what you see with its trading volumes or action?

Geo

Well Jonsie, one thing is for certain, TIV is getting pretty darn predictable. It gets on a bull run to about $8.5, which is the point you have always said it would hit major resistance and sure enough it can't be cleared and it drops back down into the $7's. Is it shorts shorting or traders trading? Likely both. I keep expecting (hoping) TIV will come out with a PR about flow rates on the first two wells which each had 100's of feet (thousands?) of oil shows in them, or even a better PR, right about the time the pps is trying to buck $8.5. Maybe that will do the trick? Timing is everything and some folks are masters at it and some aren't...

Oh well, maybe next time...

Geo

Well, today is looking just like the previous attempts to break past the $.8.5 barrier. No dice! In fact it closed down very close to LOD, which isn't very encouraging. I sure would like to see TIV come out with something big about increased production to get us past it. It is going to need to happen soon (ooops sorry about saying soon) while it is in the $8's and it has to be about those 2 Temblor wells which had so much oil "shows" in them. Especially the second one which had 1,500' of mudlog shows and no mention of what the e-logs looked like after many weeks.

I wouldn't be surprised if TIV came out with something signifcant before T-day, like tomorrow. We can only hope...

Geo

Jonsie, I always kick myself in the butt for not unloading some of my 10's of k's at these huge gap ups or at this "seemingly" impenetrable $8.5 major resistance level, but I just keep holding tight. I'm unfraid if I did sell, I wouln't be able to buy back in, but that trading method sure has worked well for you over the years and TIV has made you many $100's of K's. About the time I decide to do that, TIV will come out with that long awaited (long expected?) PR about flow rates/reserves (major bottom line stuff) and this thing will skyrocket past many resistance levels and I'll have to pay dearly to get back to my current large position. Soooo, I'm holding tight.

What do you make of the current Bid/Ask stuff going on. Head fakes? More sellers than buyers? Chunky? Buyers lined up but no shares to sell them???? LOL

Geo

Thats what I thought you mentioned awhile back. As we all know, timing is everything and if TIV could come out with a PR about flow rates or reserves on the first 2 Temblor wells (or something even bigger/better?) while we're trying to buck this mid-$8's resistance level, it could launch this thing! I imagine there are some really big guns on the sidelines waiting to see what happens at mid $8's and if we're past it, we'll see some huge chunks bought. Agree?

What is your estimate of the short cover "trigger point" these days?

Geo

Jonsie, if TIV can break this tough-to-get-by pps of about $8.5, just based on recent past, and lets say it closes near 8.75-$9 range today, is the resistance up to double digits fairly weak? I realize you posted this info recently but I am curious again. It sure seems like if it can break this level, we're off to the races with double digits and that elusive short squeeze. I imagine the short squeeze "trigger point" is close to the $10-11 range, correct?

Things sure are looking good this AM. It seems like this run has some strong legs to it this time. Large chunky buying!

Geo

Jonsie, the way it generally works is the crude is sold as the "shipping tanks" are filled, chemically treated (for heavy crudes) and readied to be sold to "crude buyers". Most operators have a contract with a certain crude buyer and they just can't sell to anybody unless they break that "first call" buyer contract. All the sales (~weekly) for the month are then tallied and paid by buyer on about the 21st of the following month of sales (about 3-4 weeks after end of month). The price they get paid for the crude is the price of the crude, as posted by their specific buyer or a certain benchmark pricing list (i.e. Chevron's Belridge Tulare or Diatomite price), for the actual date of delivery. Obviously the price of crude can change hourly/daily/monthly so it varies throughout the month. If you used an average benchmark price at open/close of month, that'll be close enough.

The fall-off with the Sept production could be caused by a variety of reasons. One that is most plausible based on all the PR's reworking and drilling operations going on there, could be that many wells were likely shut-in because they "interfered" with their rig operations. Another could be that they are enhancing their oil gathering/treatment/shipping tanks/flow lines (production facilities) to accommodate greatly increased daily production and they needed to "pinch back" a bunch wells.
Of course it could be from a bunch of wells simply dying off, but I truly doubt that is the case considering all the oil they are encountering with their recent drilling campaign. All in all, I don't look at it as a concern at this point in time. Maybe 6 months from now if the production is less than today's, but that is pretty darn unrealistic considering how much is going on out there with their rework and drilling operations. They wouldn't continue spending that kind of dough, month after month, unless the economic results were favorable.

Hope that helps.

Geo

Maybe this is the beginning of the "no more shares/short squeeze" run we have been hearing about for so long? As like before, it is going to take a lot of effort to break past the low 8's strong resistance level. You know the large and tenacious short interest are going to try and pull out their "big guns" to minimize or eradicate any run past mid 8's, as they have done in the recent past. Lets just hope we have "bigger guns" on our side that can finally bury them for good this time, which sure looks like the case so far this AM. What do you make of the chunky Bid/Ask/head fakes going on?

Geo

No, nothing public. Just same old yackity yack by the baseless hype master folks on the other board. It kind of goes hand in hand with their "something big is coming soon, very soon" rhetoric. But, if OPUS folks do own 17 mil shares of TIV, as some have speculated, it could happen. Heck, they would have to stop "talkin" (as in talk is cheap) about burning the evil doer shorts in hell, "next week", or "before Friday". LOL

Geo

Well, all I can say is lets not hold our breath the Sept & Oct production will show the production increases yet. We all thought the 10Q was delayed because they had some late breaking good newz (like improved bottom line stuff or acquisition) to squeeze in it but nada.

What do you make of the yackity yack stuff on the other board about the Opus folks taking TIV private. How does that impact us long shareholders. Does it minimize our potential gains?

Geo

Well, I was expecting a little more definitive PR about what they encountered in the second well (footage wise), based on specific information from the final e-log run. But, I guess they haven't done the final logging run because I think they did an intermediate logging run to evaluate the upper 2 zones (Tulare & Etchegoin) and are currently drilling deeper in, or past, the Diatomite section. I can't imagine they are still drilling in the Diatomite considering they PR'd the fact they already mudlogged 1,500' of the Diatomite section almost 2 weeks ago, which has to be the entire thickness of it basd on the DOG field information for this formation/field. Maybe its thousands of feet thick at this location?? Perhaps a paleo-hole/basin where all those little phytoplankton quiescently accumulated over millions of years and built up a great thickness of Diatomite "tests" and organic ooze???

Overall, it is definitely positive and it looks like the pps got a little push upward from it on anemic volume, but we'll see if it holds. I would say the PR mostly fell on deaf Big Gun ears again due to lack of specific info and more planning. They are likely waiting for some solid "bottom line" stuff, like flow rates, before they jump in, if they are even lurking these days.

Geo

You are very corect Koilman, there may be (but you sure can't believe much of what you read on the other board) large investors or funds are waiting on the sidelines to see if TIV did in fact prove up more oil with their recent rework and drilling program. Sure there is likely a lot more to do out there with enhancing production from all those old wells, drilling more infill wells (tighter spacing) and perhaps some deeper or step out "develocat" drilling, but if the last 6 months did not signifcantly enhance production, management needs to provide us shareholders a clear cut explanation of what happened, and I sure don't want to hear about the evil doer shorts, no crews to hire, or Prop 87. Based on the recent erosion (and likely continued) of the pps, after the small run up based on the 1,500' of mudlog shows (over a week ago) it sure apears there are some retail shareholder s who are getting pretty disgusted with the "it will happen soon" rhetoric with no tangible results, except another 10Q showing increased manpower and operational spending.

As far as the 1,500' of mudlog shows on the second Temblor well, it was likely TD'd and logged days ago, unless they decided to drill deeper and they are still drilling (I doubt) or stuck pipe (I doubt). Whatever occured, we need to know how many feet of net pay were E-logged. As you know, there have been many folks over the years who have called their wives or partners to "order the cadillac", including yours truly (well, maybe not a cadillac), after seeing the mudlog shows and then had to sheepishly call them a few hours later to "stop the order" after seeing the E-logs. But, out of the 1,500' of mudlog shows, I would imagine at least 1/3 to a 1/2 is "real" and that would work very nicely.

Geo

Correct Jonsie! There are quite a few of those "in the know" (or they think they are) on the other board and in emails to me, who have been touting for many months about how great the mining and oil & gas operations have been going, yet month afer month we see no tangible improvement, whatsover. You would think one of these months, after months and months (years?) of injecting captital into buying properties, buying rigs, staffing up in field and office, refurbishing mining operations, selling basalt (or so we heard), gold drilling, reworking Temblor wells (or so we heard), drilling new wells, finding oodles of new Temblor oil (or so we heard)...that we would see the fruits of that expenditure and effort, one of these days soon (Oops, I shouldn't have said soon. I sound like those folks on the other board).

Still long but pretty darn disgusted.

Geo

Ya think? Holding back is great if the "back holder" actually comes out with significant info once all the held back info is released. They are definitely over due for significant info and thats why we're likely seeing the bid getting wacked big time today on fairly high volume.

Still hanging long, and will for quite a while longer, but this really is getting ridiculous.

Geo

Jonsie, you forgot a couple other key points..There has no PR'd results of the logging of the 2nd Temblor well after they PR'd that they had 1,500 of "mud log" shows. In the hiearchy of "real" stuff in this biz, mudlog shows are at the bottom, then comes the definitive e-log shows, then comes the production tests. They either logged the well days (week?) ago or are drilling deeper below planned TD and you would think that kind of PR would be very meaningful.

You are correct, without some meaningful and tangible PR about bottom line stuff like new production flow rates (drilling success), enhanced production flow rates (workover success), new deeper pool discoveries (drilling deeper success), increaseed SEC proven reserves (based on extended production limits in acres and greater footage from new wells), etc, I doubt we'll see any movement past the mid-$7's resistance levels. The buying has been anemic at best for awhile as it seems new buyers and the elusive "big guns" are waiting on that. But that could change "soon" (oops).

Geo

I like dem numbas! All we need now is for TIV to PR it and then the big guns should line up in force, which should cause the pps to go to double figures, which should start a short squeeze, which should send the pps to the moon! Now wouldn't that be sweet! The pps lately sure has the feel of sumtin big brewin!

Geo