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Sorry, Batermere. This pint of a Sapporo beer cut my IQ by half, from 67 to 46. Still struggling to comprehend what you wrote. Need two more hours before I can start thinking. What a poison!
Relax. It’s a monthly scheduled automatic purchase. Petit has been “buying “ shares for few years.
The lowest daily volume since 12/10/2014 (vol:=71,200) was 160,700 on 8/18/17. With the current trading volume rate, we will hardly be over 100,000 shares traded today.
Calm before the storm?
This is from Q1/18 CC (3/12/18):
TL:"We also continued to enroll patients in our Phase 3 global AIM2CERV study of AXAL to treat higher risk locally advanced cervical cancer. We are enrolling patients in 13 countries and look forward to providing an update on this program midyear as planned. "
There has not been any update on how the enrollment was going. We were supposed to get an update in June/July, but alas...
We know Catt is just pulling the "quotes" from thin air and puffing as usual. That's the level of DD he is up to.
That's a really bad negotiation tactic, very unorthodox. It may work, but highly unlikely.
"You Cannot Step Into the Same River Twice", Heraclitus, an ancient Greek philosopher.
Well, if you shelve Aim2Cerv after two years of accruing DFS data, how do you expect to restart the clock in the future? The only way to "continue" the trial is to completely restart the trial. What about the patients who have already been enrolled and dosed? Did anyone think of them? Does anyone care? Thus, it's troubling that Ken telegraphed the trial would be shut down if no takers.
I think the HFT manipulators use high frequency waves of gravitons to take the share prices to the downside. Damn, we wish these gravitons were imposing gravitational forces in the opposite direction. Is there any way to flip their vectors?
Yes, that $145.58 price target a stepping stone to a singularity where even a parabolic rise is just a kids' play. I think these HFT manipulatorws need to take a GED math classes, to then consider taking calculus and advanced calculus.
@wmtgreeter
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals just announced a $10M milestone payment from Amgen for dosing the 1st patient. They signed a deal in September '16. Thus, Amgen does not necessarily prohibits their partners from disclosing the milestone payments.
http://ir.arrowheadpharma.com/news-releases/news-release-details/arrowhead-pharmaceuticals-earns-10-million-milestone-payment
PASADENA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 1, 2018-- Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ARWR) today announced that it has earned a $10 million milestone payment from Amgen following the administration of the first dose of AMG 890, formerly referred to as ARO-LPA, in a clinical study. Amgen is evaluating AMG 890 in a Phase 1 clinical study designed to assess its safety in volunteers with elevated levels of lipoprotein (a) (Lp(a)). Emerging research has shown that elevated levels of Lp(a) are strongly associated with cardiovascular disease. AMG 890 is an RNAi therapeutic designed to lower Lp(a) for the treatment of cardiovascular disease.
Tomorrow, it's going to be exactly 2 years since the Amgen partnership struck by then-CEO O'Connor. I cheered the deal back then, and in retrospect, the deal has turned out to be weak. We could have signed a better deal had we waited for few more months. The Advaxis team could have afforded not to jump prematurely into a bed with Amgen as the company did not have a severe cash shortage issue back then. Well, what's done is done, there's no crying over spilled milk.
What about HOT deal/partnership now? Is Advaxis bound to repeat that mistake with NEO selling HOT prematurely? Maybe, but I hope not. I'd prefer them to sell AXAL rather than HOT. The question is are there any takers for AXAL? Ken has about a month left to sign/sell/partner AXAL. He is running out of time, and company is running out of money. With each day passing without an AXAL deal, we are one day closer to shelving the entire platform. Very sad. This August is going to be critical for Advaxis. The company's future depends on Ken's ability to maneuver these shark infested waters and get us to the promised land where there's no HFT manipulations, no bashing, no negative posts, and stock is at $145.58.
But she-she-she-she signed two consecutive PRs. Does that count? She is an Senior Executive Vice President for Digital Signatures and a General Director of Advanced Media Communications. She's extremely hard to replace. and Advaxis must do everything possible to retain a talent of this caliber. Keep in mind there's been a huge brain drain from Advaxis to Oncosec. We do not want to lose one more tremendously skilled employee to a competition.
@wmtgreeter: keeping WMT door's open since 2001.
You could have just stated: "The incompetence of the management put us on a slippery slope".
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"... brevity is the soul of wit...", William Shakespeare, Hamlet.
As of 4/30/18, they had $58.8M in cash and cash equivalents. With their cash burn rate reduced to ~$15M per Q from ~$20M/Q, Advaxis likely "hoards" about $43M as of today. This does not account for any possible milestone payments from Amgen if occurred. Realistically, they can go one more quarter without further cash infusion. But that's very dangerous, IMO.
Don't you recall what transpired with that H&N combo trial where we had a clinical hold for over 4 months? We still do not know if Imfinzi was solely responsible for the patient's death, it was never officially stated that AZN's drug was the poison. At least, AXAL is now cleared by the FDA.
Also, recall that the above trial was destined to die long before the halt due to futility. There was no synergy between LM platform and Imfinzi. See that the 1st HOT indication will also be run as a combo with the CPI, and you can be sure it's not Imfinzi. So how exactly Astra fits into this play?
I am intrigued by the fact that the 1st HOT therapy will be tested also as a combo with checkpoint inhibitors. Obviously, it has to be an approved CPI. Correct me if I’m wrong but Amgen doesn’t have an approved CPI drug. They even run a Ph3 clinical trial with Merck to study a combo therapy for melanoma that includes oncolytic platform with Keytruda. Thus, the 1st HOT IND is likely not targeted to be partnered with Amgen. It’s either Merck or Bristol as they need to get a CPI drug to start the trials. Likely, the negotiations are close to be finalized. Otherwise, why would they write about a combo for this NSCLC indication? They are getting smart to run everything concurrently.
I do not think you would want to get out when you are going to be down "just" 30%. When that happens, it would mean something really positive happened for the share price to rise 600% from the current levels. The momentum would likely be pushing this higher, and a lot of excitement would be on this board. Regular "pumpers" would be gone by then.
So you believe the dilution is imminent?
I hope that it happens at $4+, not sub $1. Then, we are good.
If they are going to shut down Aim2Cerv and any other AXAL based trials, they might be able to run this small trial on their own. They need approximately 10 patients for Ph1/2, which costs about ~100K/patient. Doable, but really walking on a tight rope.
yes, this is going to take time. We do not know what Ken's plans are. He definitely needs to resolve a cash issue.
Do you expect them to partner this HOT indication before they dose the 1st patient? That would be great if they strike a decent deal.
It's a good news that they they got this IND approved without any hiccups. Notice they want to run a combo trial concurrently. Has to be either Opdivo or Keytruda. So far, it's not partnered. I expect them not to partner this until they get some clinical data, then, likely will be big interest if the data is great. We shall see.
I’m okay with you being either optimistic or pessimistic or even neutral. It’s frustrating to be an investor in Advaxis, excruciatingly painful, sometimes demoralizing and depressing. Maybe, it’s not for you. Maybe, it’s not for me. But we have made a decision to jump in and buy too much of Advaxis. Too huge a risk, and right now we have to make a decision about huge paper losses: either cut losses and take whatever we are left with or sit tight and wait out. My decision is simple. Im going to wait out until this October or even November. The picture will be clear by then. We either make or not. It’s almost a binary event regardless of what others say here. If market cap goes below 30M we are done.
Good luck. Find a better beer than Sapporo.
Hovacre,
You have just ruined my Sunday morning. I’ve been wet dreaming about Amgen buying us out tomorrow for $23B, a pocket change for them, and you poured a cold water in me on others who dreamt about Sean Harper jumping to Advaxis, Amgen, BMY, MRK fighting each other to get a piece of Advaxis!
You did not have to be that cruel.
Im trying to visualize what you said, and this is what I see:
I) if Amgen gets a HOT deal for a single indication, then we jump to $6.45;
2) if Amgen gets HOT for two indications, then our SP will fly to $8.79;
3) if Amgen gets HOT for three or more indications, then we skyrocket to $14.57;
4) if Merck gets another deal for a single HOT indication in addition to what Amgen got, then we definitely see $18.36;
5) Merck get two or more indications, we will be in stratosphere at $25.61;
6) if BMY jumps in and gets one HOT indication in addition to Amgen and Merck, we break a light speed and wake up at $39.52;
Then buyout is possible at $92.55 or higher! Did I get it right? I am not sure I want to sell the beech until we get $176.55 offer.
That's the last thing I would want. Fluffy PR addressing purely the current share price would do nothing but pour more gasoline on the fire. It's better to keep their mouth shut and deliver something tangible. Time for these fluff releases has long been over.
Look, what Ziop did is out of desperation. The share price has no positive reaction on that PR. Everyone waiting for some deal is greatly disappointed. There are other ways to send a message to the markets. The most loud and clear message is a cash deal. The subtler message is the open market buys by the insiders. Dr Cooper, a current CEO of Ziopharm, has not made any single OM purchases during his 3-yr tenure while his compensations ranks amongst the highest bio CEOs even for those leading multi-billion dollar companies. That tells you a lot. A strong vote of non-confidence.
I really hope the next conference call will not be Ken's Waterloo. He needs to deliver before then.
@wmtgreeter and a proud holder of GED in History.
We are a week away from the 2nd anniversary of the AMGN deal. No deal has been signed since then. Ranya Dajani has been a complete waste of the money as she was hired for the sole purpose of delivering the deals. Now she signs press relises form time to time. She is a multi-tasker.
Ken's on the clock. His "grace period" will expire in about 5-6 weeks, during the next CC. If nothing is delivered by then, we tank and tank hard. After that, not too many options will be left on the table (as if he has too many now). Ken is likely negotiating from the point of weakness, and if he play hardball as some here suggest, this is not going to end well. He can't push on the rope -- that simple.
Fire up the GalaxyMaps.com! We are going to da Moon!
I believe it'd be a mistake to reduce the current exercise price. Extending time to exercise those warrants -- maybe. We need to keep in mind that the warrants are nothing but a dilution as over 3M new stocks would be issued if the all warrants are exercised. Yes, the company gets much needed cash, but it's still a dilution albeit at much higher level than the current share prices.
I did not say AXAL was ineffective. My point was NEO/HOT platforms are yet to be tested on humans to prove they're safe and effective. Read again what I stated.
I really hope the NEO and HOT platforms are more effective than AXAL and will help those who suffer from the one of the deadliest diseases in the world. I hope many will be cured with the ADXS technology.
However, the key word here is the technology is not PROVEN yet on humans. Thus, given the history of Avaxis, its potential is heavily discounted. Once proven, the game changes. Until then, we are in a wait-and-see mode.
The question we should be asking is why there's no buying interest? Not from the insties, not from the retail. All the buys are mostly attributed to the short covering.
I see the following reasons for the lack of interest:
1) Ken has indicated a pretty dramatic change of the company direction by threatening to completely abandon AXAL platform (and our most advanced Ph3 trial) if they are unable to sell it or partner within a short period of time. It alone put a huge pressure on the share price due to this uncertainty.
2) There's a huge overhang of the secondary. Approximately 40M shares are ready to be flooded the markets. The problem is not just a secondary itself, rather how it will be accomplished. Who and at what price? Are there going to be warrants attached to the possible secondary? Keep in mind a conventional secondary market for Advaxis is pretty much closed to vultures like HC Weinwright and etc. That's a huge pressure of the share price.
3) We don't know how NEO and HOT will work. Are they going to be effective? Since these are going to be the only platforms ADXS is expected to have once AXAL is shelved, it puts a lot of uncertainty to the validity of ADXS science. Until we see 1st results from the NEO patients, these programs are going to be hugely discounted.
4) I'm not going to repeat about the burning cash issue.
Now tell me if potential buyers want to sit on the sidelines until the picture gets somewhat clear or what?
PS. I'm not buyer here either. Just holding. And, please stop all bullshit about HFT, Algos, and etc.
What's happening? Iggy, did you forget to turn ALGOs off? Batermere got stuck in an infinite loop counting molar, premolar, incisors, cuspids, and etc. I'm afraid he might pull a healthy tooth out now. Poor his patient...
Time to pour some Sapporo?
Blackrock sold more than 1.5M shares as of 7/10/18. How did they add now? Something is not right in the TD Ameritrade news feed?
Where did you see the filing? I don’t see anything on whalewisdom. Nothing on Edgar.
They got a new coverage and much higher price target citing huge potential market.
He’s not just listening, but he’s also posting from time to time. Mostly, he shows up at around 6 am and posts some incoherent rants.
Btw, he said adios to this board yesterday. Maybe, he’s working on some deals and will be busy for a while?
What about ALGOs? HFTs? What about dark pool buyers who want to transfer shares from retail to hedge funds at the rock bottom prices ?
RSUs are not scam? DOC now saint? Tony a hero for keeping the bench warm? Sidransky is a savior?
You seem to fail to understand the reasons for reverse splits. There are no thresholds for the numbers of outstanding shares that facilitate the RS process.
Folks here assume that the reverse splits are automatically bad and would result in a further decline of the share price. That’s not given. It all depends what transpires after the reverse split. If some major holder that was prohibited from buying shares below a certain price steps in and buys then we are good. Most of the time, shorting kicks in though. We shall see.
Positive data is not good enough for this competitive landscape. Data has to be great to attract more investors. Otherwise, it’s all about RSUs and hopium.