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To FISH21049:
I am most definitely not looking for insider information, nor have I requested or anticipated anything directly from him, and would expect at most a simple acknowledgement that he received my message. My request for information yesterday was for clarification on the relationship with Longtai Medical, through previously employed communications channels such as a press release or the "What's New" page on Titan's web site.
As far as the quote you have chosen from my prior post, I stand by it as written. I would hope that he will learn he can trust me to provide for him a glimpse of honest investor sentiment without overly emotive outbursts, while ensuring my requests remain reasonable and while maintaining respect (well deserved thus far) for the person and the position. I will also continue to understand that there are numerous questions he cannot answer, for reasons legal or moral, or to help maintain a competitive advantage, and I will try to not ask those questions.
I believe there is nothing "FISHy" about my request!
Great analogy... Just waiting for Mr. McNally to use his Dale call so we will have more ducks than we know what to do with!
Low volume today, but nice results. Maybe ARCA is on vacation this week! If only we could pick up that penny a day for the week...
I did not ask specifically for anything else. I did mention that despite the turmoil of last fall, the What's New communication from Mr. Barker was extremely well received and appreciated, and something akin to an update of that seems due at this point in time. I didn't specify this either (maybe I should have), but that letter was broad-ranging in scope and felt like an honest and thorough update that treated us with respect and appreciation as supporters of the organization when it was obvious we were not just fair weather friends.
Hopefully we will hear something encouraging.
I have written to Mr. McNally and sent it just a few minutes ago, expressing our concerns about the mystery behind Longtai Medical and our desire for increased communications. I prefer at this time to keep it as a personal letter from me to Mr. McNally, with hopes that he and I can build a mutual trust, and that I can reach out to him on our behalf in the future.
I would be more inclined to reach out to him via a person to person email. I will try to reach out to him on Monday - it may be a simple explanation but at his level, he may need to carefully consider what details he is allowed to share, and I think I should respect his weekend down time and hold off until Monday.
But it has to be all good... They gave us money! As long as their corporate slogan isn't "Me love you Longtai!" then we shouldn't get screwed on this deal!
To RetireYoung2...
Posts were in the mid- to late-May time frame when we were assembling some rough numbers of what our holdings were. The grand tally at the time put us close to 6% of the company. Not everybody at that time posted their holdings (we only had one contributor to that list with two commas in their number!). I personally have increased my holdings by another 25% since then and I'm sure several others have done so at these fire sale prices. Given the recent additional dilution, it probably still keeps us around the 5-6% level, maybe over 7% now that we know we have a second person in the Million Shares Club!
Average holdings per contributor were around 212,000 shares at that time. Because it has all changed since then, I won't bother with mean, mode, and median.
It could be related, but right now Nicholson is the only real big training center in the US for this sort of thing. Expect all subsequent competitors to get there as well, either for trials and training, or at least to get a feel for what they do so they (especially Verb) can set up their own site to compete.
Look at it this way... Senhance has a one to two year head start in the US (just waiting for FDA, like they were with SurgiBot) and they just now are setting things up for surgeon training. Titan is getting into this critical training center two year earlier in their development cycle. Who will be ready to hit the ground running?
Also, it would be hugely interesting to know what system, Senhance or SPORT, gets the most attention around the Nicholson hallways. Certainly Senhance will for its physical presence, requiring five separate elevator rides to get all the pieces moved one floor up. But with regard to surgeon interest, I wonder how many of them will go there to train on Senhance and then see SPORT and think, "Hey, I would much rather be working on that!"
Thanks! I try to point out when something is just my opinion, and I try to use factual data and logic when possible (grew up as a math guy). Lately, factual data has been a scarce commodity with this program!
Definitely not retired... 7 more years if Titan somehow doesn't break through, or maybe three to four if it does. Most of my career at various levels of medical devices; Biomed technician in USAF, degrees in Biomed, Comp Sci, Systems; MS in Ops and Project Mgt; 20 years in medical devices, mostly QA/Regulatory; helped half a dozen products reach FDA clearance, latest is a large robotic hematology analyzer approved last December. Writing comes fairly naturally to me as long as I can keep my thoughts in order so no big efforts involved. I just hope the writing skills will be influential enough when it comes to completion of my own patent application for a non-medical side project! Much of my surgical robotic knowledge is second hand; my wife has worked with and trained others on da Vincis in the OR setting since they first came out.
Scotch it is! I had my very first JW Blue in Vegas a few years ago!
Wrote this... hadn't seen that I was replying to a message that was deleted before I finished!
Room for many players in this marketplace. Market expected to be almost 8 times current revenue levels in 3 to 4 years.
As for Senahance, it received a CE mark in December 2011 as the ALF-X Telelap system. Since then, the "technology" was bought by Transenterix and they have sold a total of eight systems worldwide, with a total of 21 surgeons using these systems. Oh, one of those eight in not in an approved market (Japan) so commercial use of the instrument may be limited or non-existent until is gets their approval. They are not yet deriving any substantial revenue from this product line. They do have haptic feedback which da Vinci does not, and they do move the camera based on surgeon's eyeball movements - not sure if that is a feature or a major distraction. The system also supports up to four separate arms entering the patient through four separate ports, and... is there a fifth port for the camera? Each of the four arms is mounted to a separate gigantic pod, each requiring something on the order of maybe 6 to 8 (or more) square feet of valuable floor space around the patient, preventing access to the patient by personnel, and making anesthesiology folk run through an obstacle course to get anything done.
As the only real player in the game, Intuitive's da Vinci line has a captive market. One big pod next to the patient (like SPORT) but up to four arms entering the patient through as many ports. They have recently introduced a single port option (like SPORT) but were holding off on sales for some unknown reason. da Vinci is that much better than anything else out there because for most of these general surgery indications, the only competition is Senhance.
If analysts are correct in their growth predictions for the market, either some viable players (grin and say Titan!) will enter the marketplace soon, or ISRG will have to nearly double their revenues EACH of the next three years to meet these analysts' predictions. Other viable players likely to include Verb, Medtronic, Ethicon, etc. But if the growth is as predicted, that means there is room in the marketplace for 7 or 8 companies, each as large as Intuitive is today - or assuming some substatial growth for ISRG, they can quadruple in size and still leave room for four more companies at ISRG's current size.
Bristol, I'm with you on all of these!
As for ballparking the programmer man-hours, we could do another little math experiment, just for fun. If we could find/figure out their monthly costs for development (maybe assume some reasonable percentage of their overall burn rate), we should be able to get within some moderate margin of error.
From the June fundraising efforts, they were hoping for US $17M to get to the end of the year? (please feel free to update/correct figures as you see fit). So a little under $3M per month for burn rate? They have their own salaries, overhead, rent, etc. for probably the better part of a third of that... as a development stage company, 2/3 is probably a reasonable figure for how much is going toward development, so $2M/month. Most or all development is being contracted out, so lop off 20% for markup/profit by the contractors; down to $1.6M. Of that, as much as half to 2/3 could be going toward supplies, project management, QA, documentation, and other overhead. Let's say we're down to $700K per month on development engineering staff. A chunk of that is going to hardware development (relocating the foot pedal assembly, camera upgrades, maybe refining end effectors and gearing up for increased number of indications)... How does $350K/month sound for that, leaving $350K for software developers? Contracting software development folks for medical devices tends to average somewhere around $100 to $120/hour. Maybe in the ballpark of 3,000 hours per month of software developers' time. With some OT on a time-sensitive program, close to 200 hours per engineer, per month, means 15 full time software engineers. Given the nature and scope of the work, I think it's a reasonable guesstimate! It is a process...
I thought somewhere there was an indication that they are still working on end effectors with another organization so I don't think they have that nailed down for a "design freeze" level of stability.
As for official FDA paperwork, I suspect there isn't that much going on, but they reported that they are maintaining some relationship with the FDA to ensure they are heading in the right direction. The big push will presumably be later in the clinical trials next year.
I'd love to see a nice, prominent feature article any time at all, and the video could maybe wait until end effectors are optimized; I would imaging the surgeons who are interested in using SPORT want to see latest/greatest, and they deserve to see the best representation of what will ultimately be available to them. They won't always be making the actual purchase decision but they will always be heavily influencing it with hospital administration. We need them to really really want SPORT, and a great video will definitely stir interest. The video should probably also have surgeon commentary to tout the advantages of SPORT over other offerings, while simultaneously demonstrating the same features in the video.
One other thing I would REALLY like to see is a simple update to the Titan web site. Even the Board of Directors hasn't been updated. Does the vote for the new directors not take effect immediately? The latest "What's New?" entry is Mr. Barker's letter from November (I'd love to see another communication from them to update the items discussed in THAT letter). And the Leadership team page gives nice summaries of what everyone used to do, but I also want to know what they are doing for Titan! Maybe it is a case of "familiarity breeds contempt" but nearly every day I hop onto the Titan site and sigh with disappointment that it remains the same as the day before.
I think the critical quote from Mr. McNally is, "We can allocate those funds for operating activities."
This means they had not been allocated for operating activities. This is newly available money for Titan to spend. Whether it was technically in "escrow" (third party holding funds until a specific contractual obligation is met) or being held in some other vehicle or designated account, it is additional funding. The fact that it had not yet been returned after the April announcement means to me that both parties were still interested in putting some type of deal together.
If we took on the full amount at these share prices, we would be diluted dramatically. There may be more of a deal in the waiting but Titan probably shouldn't take in more funding than short-term needs dictate in order to keep dilution to a minimum.
In May of 2016, Titan announced a 3 month extension for negotiations with Longtai. The $2M sat in escrow. In August 2016, another extension was announced. The money appears to have sat there. In April this year they announced the end of negotiations for the entire deal. They didn't reach an agreement when Titan development was on hold last fall due to funding. As desperate as we were at that time,Titan probably would have jumped on it then to get the funding, therefore I would have to think it was Longtai who wouldn't agree to it at that time. It is most likely Longtai who came back to the table to renew the offer. And if the $2M deposit had never been returned, then this has always remained on the back burner despite the PR this past April.
The other consideration is that Titan may be revisiting the earlier strategy of getting into Asia sooner, rather than later. The quicker they can open up sales and revenue streams, the quicker we can start planning the Vegas trip!
I think the Longtai news is better than people think. First, the finds were in escrow the whole time, so these are indeed new funds to add to the tally. It is also a vote of confidence in the technology and in the management team - they suspended the agreement with the old management team, possibly because their perception of the old team was similar to ours. To reverse course on their prior decision to sever connections with Titan means they see the future as good and want to be part of it again.
Were they not previously negotiating for a $20M stake in Titan with the $2M deposit held in escrow? If they are fully turned back on, we could also have a new partner in the works from a funding standpoint. We really do need to get PPS up before that, otherwise they will own about 40% of Titan. But that funding could be crucial if it comes back. Maybe Mr. McNally is holding off on the rest of the deal pending PPS increase.
Additionally, this could mean our pathway into the Asian market is back on. The current plan seems to be US and Europe first, but Asia is the next biggest market and possibly has the largest market potential on the planet (at least based on overall population).
This announcement represents a HUGE vote of confidence and should not be glossed over lightly!
Not post RS; $5 on each of our current $0.11 shares!
I'm curious as to what changed so dramatically over the past couple days. The overall attitude here seems to be rampantly negative; some even reverting back to personal attacks - I still prefer to think of our group here as somewhat of a team to the greatest extent possible. Honeycomb dropped in for an unscheduled visit and now everyone's optimism seems to have died! At least we have a month to recover!
If it isn't around $5.00 in three years, I will be disappointed. What happens on the pathway there is just part of getting there.
Would something like this technology be useful in an end effector?
"advanced energy surgery platform for precise cutting and coagulation of soft tissue and reliable vessel sealing in open and laparoscopic procedures."
That is from Domain Surgical's description on Mr. McNally's LinkedIn page. Any change there could be some synergy there?
The right type of partnership, maybe, but they don't seem to be planning to be bought anytime soon. They still have VP's of Sales, Marketing, and Business Development. Theee three guys have to be costing the company half to three quarters of a million dollars per year just in salary. Mr. McNally would not likely be keeping such expensive window dressing if they weren't providing a service to the company. Their records are impressive enough to lead one to believe that the plan is to get this thing to the marketplace under the Titan banner. If by "partner" one means a financial benefactor, that might be nice, but I don't think they are shopping this around for imminent takeover.
Nice find!
Please keep in mind that the SAGES unveiling was at least a reasonably high-functioning prototype; at most, a near fully functional device. SAGES was March of last year. In February, the FDA had released the final draft of the new Human Factors Engineering guidelines, which became the new rule in April. That is the document which killed TRXC's submission (that plus an issue with their "predicate device" claim); they were hoping to get approval before the guideline took effect but missed the cut, and shortly after, they had announced they were scrapping the SurgiBot program because the re-engineering would be too extensive (I think they have since turned the program back on because Senhance isn't bringing in the revenues they had hoped for).
The unit at SAGES was pretty much the real deal, but the FDA threw in the monkey wrench that time with the new rules. Investors only saw the headlines of "More engineering needed" and "Delay delay delay"; they didn't see things like "Titan has a plan and is ahead of the re-engineering effort." Stock price plunged; fundraising failed; progress stopped... last year's debacle was largely due to the new FDA guideline and investors not understanding the real impact, so Titan took the blame. From a funding standpoint, there was obviously some culpability on the part of that management team, but it was also a bad set of circumstances caused by unfortunate timing of the FDA regulation. Or maybe not as unfortunate, considering SurgiBot might have been approved otherwise.
In any event, SPORT was much more than a shell at SAGES and that particular delay was not all Titan's fault.
Now, based on early surgeon feedback, they are re-positioning the foot pedal tray for better ergonomics and comfort, and making a couple other tweaks to improve the vision system. Software development will be largely focused on redundancies to meet various safety criteria, and probably some user interface software tweaks as more feedback comes back from Nicholson. This is just the product development cycle for a medical device. It's all good, but it does take some time to get it right. Any by all accounts, they are getting it right. Unfortunately, not a lot of the general investment community understands medical device development as a process, so $0.11 it is until some particular milestone wakes up the bigger investors, and just imaging the ROI they will see when this all comes to fruition!
The first couple large infusions of cash will drive PPS up a bit. Let's say two majors step up to the plate with a few million each, and stock runs to $.30. The next wave of big investors will have missed out on the opportunity to have triple the gains like the first couple on board. I'd want to be first and reap three times (or two, or four, or 10 times) the rewards.
That sounds rather Titanish!
Scottrade says another trade came in, .1056, over 100K shares.
Looks like ISRG shares took a bath on Friday... From $970's to $920's.
Doesn't look like good press, but if we read into things a little more, I see the following observations:
The little Titan video was from a 2012 presentation. A bit dated.
Intuitive is releasing a lower-priced system. Their last attempt at this was the Se, "e" for Economy. The one such system I know of was bought without consulting the surgeons or staff. They didn't like it. Barely ever used; sat in the corner and collected dust. Will the new economy da Vinci fare better?
Senhance sales figures say a lot about Transenterix, but the article doesn't bother to mention how meager their sales have been; it makes them look as though they could become a serious threat to Intuitive.
The article touts TRXC's Haptic feedback as a differentiator, but Titan has patents referencing haptic and force feedback. Without occupying a half acre of OR floor space.
And Eye tracking? What does this do... move the camera based on surgeon's eye movement? (Facetiously, I would say the camera might spend a lot of time aimed at nursing staff chests...) Realistically, is this going to be more of a nuisance than a benefit? It sounds to me more like a "nifty feature" which marketing folk got pushed into the design so they have something ISRG doesn't... without regard to surgeons' actual desires. Can any of you surgeons out there provide input as to whether or not this sounds like a real benefit?
It would be nice to see an article like this but a little more research. And the entire basis of the article, if anyone could overtake ISRG, is at least 5 to 8 years premature. If anyone could, it would either require the money and marketing forces of a J&J/Google collaboration, or require a new, unique upstart technology that people really want, like an iPhone when it was introduced. It will be up to surgeons to decide what they like once they have options.
The negative sentiment is certainly understandable. A review of my own postings repeatedly calls Mr. Randall's qualifications into question, but I will continue to point out that it is merely a question at this point. Mr. McNally's confidence in his "rock" gives me pause to want more information before I would be calling for his immediate ouster.
Hypocrates, your traditionally logical thought processes had me assuming STEM major, but your thousand cuts/Jesus/Gibraltar references have me questioning that assessment... not in a negative way; we need balance in our inputs on this board! All are appreciated, and such diversity can equal strength if applied logically. (Not always the case in media, government, education, etc. where diversity is enforced for its own sake, not for ultimate benefit of country or society... but I digress!)
With regard to our current funding situation, I would submit the idea that we are in a precarious position at the moment. There are a lot of people and institutions out there who firmly believe in the future of robotic surgery and have put up a lot of money in that belief. Unfortunately, those investments have all gone to the lone player in that field. To invest in the young upstart, the potentially disruptive technology, is to bet against themselves and their large investments. Do you think Apple had an easy road getting started in an IBM/Microsoft world? Hell No! From an investor standpoint, we are Apple in 1980 or so. Who wanted to bet against IBM in 1980? Okay, a few outcasts jumped into DEC (Digital) and a few outliers had the balls to put some coin on Apple. Happy people these days. How can we convince others that we are the next 1980 Apple?
With regard to another letter, I am confident that we have their attention and the leadership team are among our regulars readers at this point. If another letter has strategic rationale, we need the appropriate audience. There were a number of industry analysts who picked up on our previous writings and wrote about about our input (in what I considered to be flattering terms as an anonymous author, I must say!). I believe that another such writing campaign to management at this point would do more to disrupt our communications than it would to enhance our positions in any way.
If we were to undertake another writing campaign, let me pose the following considerations:
We consider who we should be writing to. Would writing directly to the leadership team give them any greater insight than they can glean from reading these posts? Or to make an impact, should we be identifying potential investors (everything from friends and relative to institutional investors and wealthy unknown benefactors who begin as unknown folks but end up joining us in a
Vegas celebration) and trying to convince them of the huge potential rewards they are likely to reap?
Do we collectively distrust Mr. McNally to a point where we would recommend major changes to the team, or in our hearts, do we think they have our best interests in mind? To put this more bluntly, how much can this management team benefit by screwing us over compared to the financial rewards they would gain personally if we ALL benefit from our investments? If you suspect they aren't working on your behalf, you shouldn't be here. But before you go, please tell us how it would be possible for them to screw us out of as much money as they would gain from leading a successful program into the robotic surgery market.
Can we put forth a rational letter which accurately describes the investment opportunity we foresee? And can we build a list of recipients who might be able to contribute in such as fashion as to make an impact on our PPS and the future of this company? I personally know a couple people who might be convinced to part with 6 figures each if we compose a compelling dossier and back it with intelligent and heart-felt rationale. A fair piece of this challenge would rest on my shoulders, and I accept the challenge IF we act as a team, define our target audience (personal and institutional investors - identify the big ones by name!) and act responsibly as stewards of our personal investments and as responsible stewards of the company.
The company cannot necessarily communicate with us directly to say "Please do this" or "Please don't do that" so sometimes we may need to take it upon ourselves to act on our own behalves, in which case we must take it upon ourselves to do so responsibly. Particularly, the sentiment is that the company finances are in jeopardy in the near future, and if we can help them, we are helping ourselves.
If we want to write a letter, let's be sure it makes a positive impact. Audience, message, and timing are all critical. We need to understand these before we react.
"ISRG crushes it yet again." Yup. If ISRG wasn't crushing it, I would question the strength of surgical robotics as an investment. Crushing it with 16% growth year over year means the marketplace is expanding as the analysts have been predicting. This just helps validate Titan's eventual value. It's all good (although I sold my last ISRG around $750/share to get more Titan a few months back - had I waited until next week I'd have been able to buy 3 to 4 times as many shares as I did then. But it's all good!
I poked around the web a little bit as time allowed...
I looked up Zevex, Mr. McNally's earlier prior company (1986 to 2008). They appear to have gone public around the beginning of 2004 with a share price in the low $2 range, and in 2007 he sold to Moog for $13/share. 5X in three years isn't too shabby!
Domain Surgical appears to have been privately held until being bought last year for an unspecified amount.
I was just trying to get a better feel for his history with regard to stakeholders assets. Not as much data readily available (don't have time to dig through financials at the moment) but absolutely no reason to believe he wouldn't have our (and by extension, his) best financial interests in mind as this progresses. Not sure if anyone else can find more info... Just another confidence building exercise if his history is as sound as it seems.
I think Verb has too much on the line to allow Titan to even remotely worry about funding if there was a connection. And I don't think many of us will be "rich" in an early buyout scenario. PPS needs to rise while Titan is an independent organization, whether pre-market or post-approval, in order for a buyout to bring us enough of a return that most of us won't be disappointed with.
If they are as big in this marketplace as ISRG is now, that still leaves room for 3 or 4 more at the same size!
Just an observation... Reading through a few articles, this statement which we have all seen caught my attention:
"Multiple market research reports project that the robotic surgery market will exceed 20 billion dollars globally in the year 2021."
Yesterday I was looking at ISRG's figures... Market cap is just shy of $35B and 2016 revenue was $2.7B. They are the vast majority of all robotic surgery revenue, and it totaled $2.7B. If all these projections are correct, let's say ISRG doubles its revenue in 5 years, that leaves room for 5 or 6 more organizations doing the same revenue that ISRG is currently doing in order to add up to the $20B in 2021. Thinking about it in those terms, this is really a much bigger pie to be cutting into in 5 years. ISRG will surely be there in the market, but who else will offer a technology with the practicality, ergonomics, patient benefits, and economical benefits that SPORT will offer? This could easily turn out to be another order of magnitude bigger than I, for one, had been envisioning.
Vegas has always been the plan in my book!
Fill out the "spreadsheet" I sent and see if you believe Vegas is in the cards for you as well - You will be doing your own projection for share price. 74,000 times your number is what you should believe this investment will be worth for you, and I am confident that it will be more than enough to go to Vegas many many times!
DRG, As for Paige's appearances (hawt or nawt) we only have her LinkedIn profile picture from which to make that assessment, and everyone has their personal preferences. Success in the medical device sales realm typically does not follow people who are generally regarded as physically unattractive (and life isn't fair in many other ways either). It would appear as though the general perception (as well as mine) is that of an attractive, intelligent professional woman. Or "Easy on the eyes," to borrow your phrase. If she is as pleasant to converse with as she is to look at, then the only remaining question is which Scotch to choose for the toast!
The biggest problem everyone has with Paige is her last name.
Now a little more to think about... She spent over a decade at ISRG... Ever think that maybe she was talking with her Dad about what she was doing, and together they came up with a couple ideas on how to make a better robotic system? She couldn't do anything about it as an ISRG employee, but maybe Dad could! Obviously I'm hypothesizing here, but it's possible Titan wouldn't exist without her early input. Just a thought.
When we get to Vegas, we might need to raise our glasses and toast the woman who has been so badly maligned for years on this message board!
Your own personal worksheet:
Fill in your estimates for each value and follow the math prompts - I can't nest active formulae into a text message! Feel free to use published resources, such as recently referenced articles and whatever strikes your fancy, as long as you feel it is realistic. This is to gauge YOUR personal feelings about what this stock can do for you. But a big copy and paste share would be most appreciated! This serves as a sanity check on everyone's ideas about what this investment really means to each of us.
For the first one, you need to consider a few things, such as when you think they will go back to the well, and what the share price might be at that time. I am guessing they intend to delay fundraising as much as possible to try to get PPS up first and help minimize dilution) otherwise, why would their first closing be at a mere $5M US dollars?). Add these up to estimate what the total outstanding shares might be when we start generating revenue, at which point we should need any further dilution.
A. Estimated ultimate outstanding shares when this thing hits the market (include warrants, etc.): A=
Revenue estimates:
B. Sales estimate, # SPORT systems: B =
C. SPORT system sales revenue: C = B x $1.2M =
D. Est life per system, years, average: D =
E. Service contracts, est. annual price per: E =
F. Service contract revenue, F = D x E =
G. Training cost per surgeon: G =
H. Number of surgeons per SPORT for training: H =
I. Training revenue: I = G x H =
J: Disposables and re-processables, avg cost per case: J =
K. Number of cases per SPORT per year: K =
L. Revenue from per case supplies: L = J x K x D =
M. (M for Money!) Revenue total: M = C + F + I + L
(For reference, the recently linked report looked at 15 years of sales)
N. How many years are you forecasting for this exercise: N=
O. Average annual revenue over time span: O = M / N =
P. How many years of revenue do you think a market capitalization should reflect in this sector? (ISRG revenue was $2.7B and market cap is almost $35B, but a market cap equal to 14 years of revenue is not the norm!) P=
Q. Market cap estimate: Q = P x O =
R. Estimated share price: R = Q / A
Now multiply R times your number of shares to see what kind of money you think this will be worth for you personally... You needn't share this if you don't care to - you needn't share anything if you don't want to, but it would be interesting for everyone to help validate or refine their personal expectations.
As much as anything... dream big and have fun!
Please share! And feel free to add comments regarding any aspect of this exercise!
It's a ballpark number, like most. I figured you have to have something to work with to do a viable estimate. We are at 237M now. We need to raise about $65M more to completion, and assuming (yes, I know what happens when you assume...)there is some growth in PPS in the meantime, about another 100M shares (including warrants, etc.) gave numbers that I felt would be within an order of magnitude. Some of our later fundraising could occur at a buck or two per share next year, who knows... Feel free to plug in your own numbers; if 400M or 500M outstanding seems more reasonable to you, you are looking at either $7.50 per share or $6 per share, respectively, assuming you buy into the other background figures.
I've always said they were estimates, and I would actually like to hear from others if they think these numbers sound reasonable, or what adjustments each of you might make to the numbers to model your belief in the future of this stock! Maybe I'll slap together a quick math model (text version of a spreadsheet) for folks to plug numbers into, and see how our opinions compare! Give me a few minutes here and I'll try to get something together!
I like your analysis; you are using data from actual sources (I don't know if ISRG's P/E of 47 will ever completely apply to Titan but here's hoping!) and you also see the potential. I think that potential is a big part of why $.11 is SOOO undervalued. At $4-$6 a share we are all in the money. Every milestone they meet is one step closer to fruition and another risk conquered, as well as increasing confidence for meeting future milestones and getting this thing into a revenue phase. At this point, PPS should be rising as fast as they are building confidence and approaching the goal line. I don't think we need sales to start climbing, but at some point the milestones will be significant enough, and possibly combined with an uplist to cut MM's influence, it can't stay here forever.
Last year's published analysis put share value at around $4 (I think it was mid-July last year, so a year ago, before the pause and re-structuring). I had done a ballpark run-up value analysis a few weeks ago from a project management standpoint (based initially on actual development costs, tossing a majority but not all of Amadeus expenses because some of that development carried over) and I came up with a figure in the $3ish range for where we sit right now (post 56102). Looking at it from the standpoint of sales projections (post 56955) I looked at the analysis IITF had posted and ran up some ballpark numbers indicating that if that analysis is correct, our market cap in a few years should settle in between $3B and $5B, or maybe $9 to $15 PPS with 333K shares outstanding by then (all rough figures). All numbers in all cases are based on no RS, but everything scales linearly with an RS.
No matter how you slice it, we are wickedly, massively, severely undervalued.
I would say that organically, this should be between $4 and $5 right now, no RS, based on value of the company, the technology, the IP, the ongoing progress, and the business model for commercialization.
Well, our thanks to Beverly as well for helping spread the good word! And kudos to Mr. McNally for (as usual) finding people who can get their jobs done!
Nobody is privy to this report unless they plunk down almost $4000! That's a rather expensive analysis for someone to combine a bunch of information which is already available online, and make a guess or two about what it means for the market. For my Master's degree, I wrote a lengthy analysis on Atlas Pipeline (now part of Targa Resource Group - typically 8%+ dividend stock and part of my retirement portfolio because of my research) and I could probably have sold that report back then for some absurd amount of money. The robotics report is not worth $4K of my money, but it definitely is nice to not only see Titan included, but in the title of the report as well - possibly just marketing by the author - if in his research, he discovered our message board has a high activity level, it would make sense for him to appeal to our readers.
Backfermore, as for becoming a millionaire, I don't the RS will have a substantial long term impact. It will be all about Market Capitalization and what percentage of the company that you own through your shares. If RS has a shorter term impact, it would be because it can get us to the NASDAQ and put our financial destiny in our own hands instead of that of the market makers (IMHO).
Beyond that... Good morning everyone!