Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I erroneously assumed that the person I wrote the note to was only trading on technical concepts.
I do still contend that as undervalued as baa is that technicals are to a high degree an ancillary consideration.
And.... yes should be mostly discarded when making an investment decision on this particular company.
That being said I added when BAA made the 50% retracement on the run from 0.15 to 0.40.
The actual fib retracement stood and still stands at 0.27
I was able to add at 0.28 by considering the Fibonacci re-tracement levels.
I contend that all these levels will be negligible if BAA reaches it's full valuation.
It will matter little if I bought at the 23.6% retracement (0.34) or the 38.2% retracement (0.30)
It will matter very little in the long term.
I get the impression that some only look at pps. and technicals.(keyotee and perhaps others)
I think that is an enormous error when considering BAA.
That's what I was trying to point out.
Well... that's why they have it as a target for further definition drilling.
What you indicated is effectively true.
Oh...sometimes I go hard after those that seem to only be flippers or technical traders hopping that they'll just read the recent PR's.
BAA just seems to be a Blaring opportunity (risk adjusted).
It's actually not for my sake.
I'd be OK even if BAA disappeared.
Additionally, I believe this message board only has a small part of pps movement even though it is quite populated. The fundamentals will show through eventually regardless of the yapping that goes on here.
Thanks,
Hopping BAA will pay off the mortgage I'm about to take out.
Hurricane Sandy....
I am amazed It's taken us this long on recovery.
We're both young.... a Nurse and a Civil engineer and we're very competitive.
Thought we'd have everything sorted out in months and here it is almost three years later.
Moved out for a year then back in...decided the house wasn't worth any further repairs and decided to go for a total demo, thus moved out again a year later (2yrs after the storm).
Since you've been through it I guess you might understand. Must have been extraordinary difficult when you've got a disability.
Technical Trading of this company is laughable.
Even if it is Claytrader (of whom I am a fan).
If you want to go around nit picking your really missing the boat on an ultra deep value that has recently been financially de-risked.
"the fact at this time is that the Demand Volume is small. Even though the pps jump was indeed impressive last week, the total weekly volume was less by about 22% from the prior week"
Who cares!!!
this is trading at something like 0.15 book when you take into consideration the reserves update...did you read that?
http://news.banro.com/press-releases/banro-announces-a-59-increase-in-twangiza-reserve-nyse-mkt-baa-201506081011142001
Looking at this company and it's valuation proposition against your prospective of where gold may trade is also ridiculous.
Gold Margin = $681
http://news.banro.com/press-releases/banro-announces-record-q1-2015-production-and-reve-nyse-mkt-baa-201505141007155001
They've got a big buffer zone.
As a side note
I do some technical trading on Mega Caps and ETF's and I love to look at the technicals of all trading vehicles.
BAA's technicals look pretty hot actually.
Long term, short term medium, term all looking good.
21.48 GRAMS PER TON OVER 39.6 METERS
IT'S CALLED FILON B
pg #25
http://www.banro.com/i/pdf/Exploration-Potential-of-the-Twangiza-Namoya-Gold-Belt-May-2014.pdf
June 8th PR.
http://news.banro.com/press-releases/banro-announces-a-59-increase-in-twangiza-reserve-nyse-mkt-baa-201506081011142001
"The primary objective is to upgrade inferred resources within the Namoya Summit-Filon B reserve pit into a higher confidence resource for conversion into mineral reserves."
That individual will not read PRs or do math
It's highly probable he does not know what sets of options he's talking about. He's just seen that I've written negatively about some options before and is latching onto it like a dung beetle...not knowing what direction he's pushing it.
He serves a purpose...true.
You're just silly.
Of course my work has nothing to do with PPS.
I'm making sure I don't invest in something like MDW
Much appreciated. I've got so much at risk I figure I better get my DD right. Posting my work creates a grater impetus for attaining a high degree accuracy in my work. Also, posting is an added productivity motivator.
day trade
long 600
stop at 20.14
rig count in 8 minutes
long tlt
as of yesterday
stop set at recent lows.
They can take the cash they get paid and go buy on the open market.
Next resistance @0.40 IMO
If the granting of options is repudiated this year, they will just put it on again next year and we can vote for it if pps is at a reasonable level.
From L2 looks like we'll break 0.37 shortly
I understand...
But they have a boat load already and they got them at 1/10 of book value in January 2015.
If this were trading at book value I'd have nothing against them granting themselves options that would incentivize them to increase Book.
At this price it's highway robbery of the existing shareholders.
Seriously,
BAA is a much better company.
BAA is high grade and newly flush with liquidity
I was afraid of what could happen to MDW back at 0.25 that's why I sold it and took the money and put it into baa.
MDW --They are short $30 million.
Their Grade going into production was projected to be 0.5 g/ton.
I think they are only getting 0.3
MDW is currently in technical default.
BAA has a grade 10X and lots of liquidity form the financing.
It really is a coin toss.
SOLD ALL CALLS AND ETF SHARES
I'm not going to short it.
but will buy if hits 19.50
http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/crude.cfm
http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
selling my FCX for break even on failure to continue and the sharp down move today.
NAMOYA !
Buying more today.
will be at 450K
I did give it some thought actually but i'd be neglecting larger responsibilities if i did it this year.
I was able to speak with an executive by phone for about a half hour...
Back before the deal was finalized. The financial professional I spoke with said that the company would survive even without the deal. That was a big stress reliever.
Being able to speak with management by phone may be due to them missing a qualified PR person currently. Although I'm willing to bet that if you're a reasonable size shareholder you can ask to speak with some of the senior management and they'll eventually get back to you.
It's easy to own a big chunk of this company currently...that's unlikely to be the case a year from now... unless gold really tanks.
Thanks.
No will not be attending do to all that's going on with the re-build for one thing, and my wife starts a job as a registered nurse next week.
Also, kinda assumed that given the size of the company it would only be thinly attended.
Do you know if it is well attended?
What happens?
..I've never been to one.
I've got a bunch of shares, perhaps I'll go next year.
You might as well be writing to
a very special individual.
I've said as much a dozen times...the PR's are simple to understand and at this point the risk has been taken out of BAA financially.
He will not read PR's
That poster refuses to do basic mathematics i.e. Spot Gold - AISC = Margin. I've wasted much time trying to point out the obvious to that individual.
I recommend you not waste your time.
It's like a gnat which thinks he can fly and see things from above and therefore it has some cognitive advantage...I know.
I really enjoyed this one...went out and bought the movie for the kids to watch.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=114166525
Yeah man,
I've got 4 kids and rebuilding a house destroyed by hurricane sandy.
VOTE AGAINST # 3 !!! (here is why)
NO MORE DILUTION !!!
Every vote counts.
1 ) Management gave themselves 9,910,000 share options in Jan 2015 when we were trading at 0.09 price to book ratio.
2 ) The issuance of those options at 0.18 to 0.20 CAD is approximately similar to giving themselves 10X the number of shares if BAA were trading at book.
3 )While I have great respect for this management team they do not need to be further incentivized with optins when the stock is trading at pennies on the dollar.
4 ) It would be cheaper to fully pay them in cash only if you are a long term share holder.
5 ) Also, note that the table of options issued on the circular is not up to date, not inclusive of the 9,910,000 share options issued in January.
6) We can vote to give them this tool back when the stock is at a reasonable valuation, e.i. over book.
Perhaps some of the larger shareholders on the message board might communicate this opinion to the fund managers that own significant percentages of BAA. If they feel it's worth their time.
Personally...
Due to reconstructing our house I've got meetings with my architect, bankers and contractors all week...or I'd track down the managers addresses and communicate the above message myself.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=114446283
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=114444723
I have VOTED AGAINST # 3 !!!
If the resolution is not approved at the Meeting, any currently unallocated stock options under the Option Plan will no longer be available for grant.”
The following from Page 11 may be of interest to you:
“Also, the TSX Rules require that all unallocated options, rights or other entitlements under a "rolling" stock option plan such as the Option Plan must be approved by a majority of the issuer’s directors and by shareholders every three years after institution. Shareholders of the Corporation most recently approved all unallocated stock options under the Option Plan at the annual and special meeting of shareholders held on June 29, 2012. In light of the TSX Rules, the directors of the Corporation have unanimously reapproved the Option Plan as amended by the Amendments and all unallocated stock options thereunder, and shareholders of the Corporation will be asked at the Meeting to do the same. Whether or not the resolution is approved at the Meeting, all stock options currently outstanding under the Option Plan will remain in effect in accordance with their terms. If the resolution is not approved at the Meeting, any currently unallocated stock options under the Option Plan will no longer be available for grant.”
http://www.banro.com/i/pdf/notice-and-circular-FINAL.PDF
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=114438581
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=114458222
VOTE AGAINST # 3 !!!
NO MORE DILUTION !!!
Every vote counts.
1 ) Management gave themselves 9,910,000 share options in Jan 2015 when we were trading at 0.09 price to book ratio.
2 ) The issuance of those options at 0.18 to 0.20 CAD is approximately similar to giving themselves 10X the number of shares if BAA were trading at book.
3 )While I have great respect for this management team they do not need to be further incentivized with optins when the stock is trading at pennies on the dollar.
4 ) It would be cheaper to fully pay them in cash only if you are a long term share holder.
5 ) Also, note that the table of options issued on the circular is not up to date, not inclusive of the 9,910,000 share options issued in January.
6) We can vote to give them this tool back when the stock is at a reasonable valuation, e.i. over book.
Perhaps some of the larger shareholders on the message board might communicate this opinion to the fund managers that own significant percentages of BAA. If they feel it's worth their time.
Personally...
Due to reconstructing our house I've got meetings with my architect, bankers and contractors all week...or I'd track down the managers addresses and communicate the above message myself.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=114446283
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=114444723
Yes I'm quite aware of the options structure.
which ones will expire and approximately when.
it's all listed in the table on page 22
http://www.banro.com/i/pdf/Interim-FS-Quarter-1-2015.pdf
they've replaced that with 9,910,000 in January.
and the in the money price range is 0.18 to 0.20 $ CAD.
They have a boat load.
It's unlikely that the amendment will not pass but by voting no we will send the message that we're watching them.
TOTALLY INACCURATE DATA
on page 21 & 22
The list of options being held by the various executives is totally inaccurate.
In January 2015.... 9,910,000... stock options were granted (check SEDI) they are not included in the tables on page 21 & 22.
http://www.banro.com/i/pdf/notice-and-circular-FINAL.PDF
The don't need any more options.
Everyone should vote No as blue did. He obviously made the correct decision.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=114431966
Yeah it's absolutely nuts and you'd think Robert Rauch knows that better than us.
and the Management who just granted themselves 9,910,000 stock options at 0.18-0.20 CD (check SEDI) knows that too.
I'm just saying if the market dosn't catch on in a year they (management) may take extreme measures. It's somewhat logical given their options and Gramercy's convertibles that they would want the market to appropriately value the company even if it could easily be argued that it isn't the best use of capital.
Outlier
Dependent on two extreme scenarios
-Extreme Undervaluation
-Extremely improved cash flow
And yes a buyback would be more logical.
And bring a new mine on line is also more logical.
And just about every other growth option is more logical.
I was just thinking that Robert Rauch might put some pressure on them to boost the pps. given that the convertibles are due in 2017 he may want many times the strike price by that time.
Rauch is the whole basis of the outlier possibility.
January 9,910,000 share options granted
Vote No to more dilution.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=114444723
THEY GET PAID ENOUGH CASH IN CASH
THEY ALREADY HAVE A BOAT LOAD OF OPTIONS.
I WILL VOTE LIKE BLUE DID AND VOTE AGAINST THE ISSUANCE OF MORE OPTIONS.
I HOPE EVERYONE VOTES NO
THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR FINDING THAT.
"If the resolution is not approved at the Meeting, any currently unallocated stock options under the Option Plan will no longer be available for grant.”
I know it is a nice incentive but if you look at the amount of options granted last January 9,910,000
I think that's enough of an incentive.
pg. 22
http://www.banro.com/i/pdf/Interim-FS-Quarter-1-2015.pdf
Total compenstation.
http://insiders.morningstar.com/trading/executive-compensation.action?t=BAA®ion=USA&culture=en_US
Extreme situation
I'm saying if we're still trading at some ridiculously extreme level of undervaluation (as we are at present) 9 months from now....then management may do something extreme in return.
That's all
I'm aware that there are better uses of capital as things are currently structured.
Last time I spoke with management they indicated that they were in a position to refi at a lower rate, so that would be a prerequisite to my idea of a dividend.
It's an outlier possibility, and based convergence of extreme circumstances.
-Extreme Undervaluation
-Extremely improved cash flow
T
what are the amendments to the stock options plan.
thought it was a further limitation on their issuance.
SPECUALTION
I agree with everything you said.
Including..
"He's long term so likely doesn't give a sh!t about the day to day movement in the price"
I don't care too much about the day to day either...
but I believe Robert L. Rauch wants to be really deep in the money on the convertible's when convert to stock.
You've run the numbers.
and you know that if everything is fully operational and they reach their LOM AISC the FCF will go parabolic...even with the debt they have.
This is more than I typically speculate....and it is just speculation.
Yet my speculation is that the CEO may repeat what they did with Nevsun (NSU) and institute a dividend.
I give it a 30% chance that they do it in a year. Given that they might want to reward Gramercy going into convertible expiration.