Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I only see two viable endings. Either Offor's funds haven't cleared or we will be getting news that eliminates the need to raise funds at this level.
We'll know in 9 days, or less if it is the latter.
I'm confused. You are a shareholder, and you've said that you participated in the offering. As negative as you have been, and with the additional shares you are getting through the offering, why wouldn't you be down on your knees praying to the almighty that you have been wrong and this thing flies?
The volume isn't saying anything other than people are waiting, on both sides, to see what will happen. It's rare to go through an Rights Offering with a penny stock. This is probably the first time for many. As such, they are in wait and see mode.
Given the likelihood that this is new to most, I think what is happening is they are exercising some of their rights and holding some cash for later... just in case.
That's why the volume is so low. Nobody is selling and all of the buying is through the offering... for now.
Under that scenario, none.
This???
It won't be cancelled unless they have already some deal that funds them for the near/intermediate term.
That's the whole point. If it is cancelled, which I see as a slim chance, there will be an announcement justifying why.
It is just a possible scenario, nothing more.
Not really, those that have shares are holding, those the are considering adding are waiting to see the offering results.
Not only is there nothing seriously wrong, this was predictable!
nwtf, *if* they cancel the rights offering because they have signed a cash and carry agreement with a respectable partner why *wouldn't* people use their refund to buy ERHE???
Personally I think the chances of cancellation are very, very remote. Even if they do ink a deal for cash and carry, their capital needs still far exceed any monies such a deal could produce.
There is one other scenario where I could see a cancellation... selling their block 2 rights to Sinopec/Total. Sinopec hasn't relinquished that block yet and we really don't know what they learned from drilling Bomu. The block could have significant value. I somewhat like that idea... the deep water stuff takes far, far too much time for my liking. I'd prefer to see parallel projects onshore where drilling results can pop like fireballs out of a roman candle. They still have the EEZ with a known "very large" structure to explore. That could be their big score down the road.
That scenario probably has a slim chace as well. The most likely outcome is we have been told the truth and the offering was extended to let funds clear the homeland security sniff test. It will close in 11 days.
For what it's worth, a poker face is a good choice in public forums. That applies to ERHC as well. This company is playing a high stakes poker game that has the potential to benefit us all. If we wear our enotions on our sleeves it benefits no one, not ourselves, nor the company.
I posted a provocative scenario over the weekend. Do I think it will happen? Most likely not, but it is possible. At the end of the day it was just a thought I was mulling over. What is most likely is we have been told the truth, they are waiting for funds to clear from late participants from many countries around the world.
There will be no more extentions, this thing will be closed or cancelled in 12 days. We will have our answer.
1.) Closure and a successful raising of $18M, the stock goes up.
2.) Cancellation on the announcement of a partner aggreeing to cash and carry, the stock goes up.
3.) Closure with mediocre participation and a failure to raise $18M, the stock goes down.
Two out of three ain't bad. I like the odds.
I have to agree with you on this...
In a game of chess, if you force a move before the time is right, you lose.
Let them do their jobs. It'll get done when it gets done. I want it done as soon as possible too, but I don't know the facts about what they are dealing with... and neither do you.
Based on the latest info they are down to dotting i's and crossing t's. It shouldn't be much longer.
Then I guess you would protest if I said Tullow's recent find in Kenya was only a bit of oil that leaked out of the Lotikipi Basin under block 11A?
:-P
Watch the video I posted. It isn't like there is a void of data available.
Thuo is a great asset to our future.
A good read of what is known and what is needed. There's plenty of work to do yet...
http://gchandler.ehclients.com/index.php/graham/earth_explorer2/exploring_the_east_african_rift_system/
Thuo is mentioned 13-14 minutes in
NW Kenya education motherlode...
http://www.geosoft.com/products/gm-sys/gm-sys-3d-modelling/videos
That's pretty clear. LOL!
We'll know in 2 weeks or less. I'm okay with either outcome.
Have you looked into Tullow before crucifying ERHC managements progress? Tullow signed block 10BB in Kenya where they recently had success with the Ngamia-1 well in 2010. Twiga and Paipai are also in a blocks signed in 2010.
Let's do the math... Tullow, with vastly more resources than ERHC, took nearly 3 years from the block awards to actual drilling. Yet somehow ERHC management is bad, Tullow management is good.
I think it is pretty clear that your expectations are too high because you don't understand the process.
I am still in the latter group. I prefer they keep as much of their acreage as possible. I am just thinking about different scenarios.
If they cancel the rights offering they will be refunding all of the money that was committed to participate. Where is the money that was committed to buying ERHE going to get deployed, *if* ERHC cancels the offering, buying shares of IBM or ERHE as originally intended?
This is the jewel, "it will all be over in 2 weeks"
Finally, a timeline I can live with!
LOL!
The prospectus *clearly* states that the offering can be cancelled. If your broker is showing shares in your account that you can act freely on, that's a mistake.
I wouldn't act on those shares until you are very sure that you can.
I believe your last sentence as well. I personally think when it closes Offor will buy in the high 90 percentile of the offered shares. That's what the math suggests.
I am just playing out every scenario I can think of that makes sense. Extending the offering because it's doing "bad" doesn't make sense. They never would have proposed it if they didn't have Offor's nod.
I suppose what make the MOST sense is that they are telling the truth. Maybe Offor said he would buy all unsubscribed shares expecting a participation higher than it was, and he is scrambling to put together the funds. It isn't normal to have $18M sitting in a checking account... not ever for the wealthy. Maybe it's just a liquidity issue. Who knows.
I'm just glad the answer is less than 2 weeks away. I am tired of waiting on everything on every front. I really look forward to the day that ERHC operates parallel projects instead of this serial s%^t. Up, down, up, down... good grief level the rollersoaster already!
Management no longer has a "green" card with me. They're seasoned. It's time to step up their game.
Why? It's the partnership deal everyone has been demanding. Shareholders wouldn't have to risk any more funds and they would see an immediate gain on their current shares from the partnership deal.
It appeases the nay-sayers and gives those that financially couldn't participate a boost as well... and it lights a fire under the stock because there will be a fairly large chunk of uncommitted funds refunded to shareholders... and if a parrallel and be drawn from the business world, refunds take weeks to process.
Everyone wins.
And the "twist" in this scenario is that all of the money that was cobbled together to participate in the offering will just be sitting there. Shareholders that wanted more shares and didn't get them will have that cash to do whatever they will with it.
Maybe its a slim chance, maybe not. I have noted that every communication about the offering emphasized that it could be extended, or it could be cancelled.
The entire offering process "could" be saber-rattling to get the best possible farm-in deal possible.
Okay, so maybe it wasn't that obvious. My point was there is far too much willingness to jump on the "condemn management" bandwagon because it is easier than thinking through all of the reasons *why* they might have done this extention.
Everyone always jumps to the negative. This extention just might be a hint of very good news to come.
The obvious...
1.) We have been told that ERHC prefers a farm-in to issuing new shares.
2.) We have been told that ERHC is in talks with 2 majors "very interested" in a farm-in in Kenya.
3.) We have been told that the sticking point in talks is that the offers have not come up to the minimum ERHC expects.
The obvious?
If the offering closes and ERHC gets the money it needs to do initial studies, the price of entry for farm-in partners could increase drastically. The interested companies know this. Is it so far fetched to think that ERHC extended the offering period because the offers increased and they are dotting the i's and crossing the t's on an agreement?
Will any such agreement, if it occurs, include full or partial carry?
Will it include a cash component?
The big question is this... could any such agreement include enough of a cash/carry arrangement that ERHC cancels the rights offering? They certainly have the incentive to do that. Several people have tarred and feathered management over this offering from the start. The poetic justice in cancelling the rights offering with an announcement of a partner that would push the share price well over the offering price amuses me. All of us that participated would get our money back and end up chasing shares at prices well over the offering.
Many stomped their feet that ERHC was going the offering route and should sign a farm-in partner instead. Be careful what you wish for, because you might get it! A cancellation of this offering is still very much in play, IMO.
With everything that we've been told, the above scenario carries more weight with me than "clearance issues" with participants funds.
We'll know the answer very soon.
I think you are missing the obvious.
I think you are missing the obvious.
That certainly is possible, but what makes the most sense? There is another option that hasn't been considered. More on that later. Gotta go.
There is the possibility that this extention was because Chrome needed to see how much it needed to raise to buy all of the remaining shares. Is that a "long shot" to consider?
I don't think so.
It has multiple benefits. The obvious one is that the more shares that are bought through the offering, the less money Chrome has to put up. The less obvious is that when Chrome snatches up the remaining shares, if they snatch up the remaining shares, any case brought against the company suggesting that shareholders weren't given ample time to participate will be fruitless and easily defendable.
The first scenario suggests the response to the offering was less than "encouraging", which goes against what we were led to believe. The second suggests that there could be concern in managment that those that didn't participate would have an axe to grind later. I don't believe that first scenario. ERHC has been careful, some here say too careful, in making sure what they say can't come back to bite them. Releasing a PR that calls interest in the offering "encouraging" and then extending the deadline because it wasn't doesn't fit their MO. Is it concern that some might have an axe to grind later? That's obviously not the question. The question is what would the news be that would sharpen that axe?
Chrome may have chosen not to participate, they may have participated *some*, they may have fully exercised their rights, or they may have fully exercised and over subscribed to the max.
You want me to give a confidence level on what they did? I have no idea.
"Chrome is free to do the same"
Are they? They seem to be doing exactly that and getting crucified for it.
The offering closes today at 5pm. I have no idea when they will report the outcome, but what we learn from it when we do will be very interesting.
We know Chrome owns 43% of ERHE. As such any change in ownership will be reported. At a minimum I think ERHC has to report how much money the offering raised. From that information we can see what kind of following ERHC has better than ever before.
I think we all mutually agree that ERHE is not widely followed by any stretch. Let's say for a minute that there are 100 shareholders out there that participate in the offering and throw an average of $5K at it. ERHC would raise $500,000 of the $18M they are seeking. When we see how many Offor bought, if any, we will be able to guage the size and depth of the pockets of those following this company. If ERHE raises a few million, say $3-5, above and beyond Offors participation, then we will know that the size of ERHE's following and/or the depth of their pockets is far greater than previously thought.
I guess that information is really only useful as a comfort factor, but it will be interesting regardless. If the next filing shows Chromes share count unchanged and the offering still raises several million dollars, we could see another entity exceeding the 5% ownership threshold and reporting would be required. If that happens, the "who" could be very telling.
Just some morning thoughts on what I think is going to be a very slow day.
Was the argument about you buying more shares or calling her your "wide"?
LOL!
To be *absolutely* fair, you are correct. Gandur sold Addax at a very good time, but it was Sinopec that set the price. Gandur mentioned multiple offers from Sinopec at prices that Gandur himself "could not understand". Sinopec didn't buy for the JDZ, they bought Addax for its reserves. At the end of the day, Sinopec paid $13 a barrel for Addax's proven reserves back in in 2009. Just this week they paid $17 a barrel here in the U.S.
Do you see that trend?
China knows its energy needs, and it is buying and paying top dollar to fill those needs. The elephant in the room is China's ownership of U.S. debt. Do they still look at the U.S. as the premier place to park their money, or will the start selling their Treasuries and convert them to oil reserves before the collapse of the U.S. predicted by Washington's behavior?
If ERHC hits commercial oil, but the U.S. has collapsed under its own debt, will we be happy with a $10-20 dollar share price if a loaf of bread costs $50?
These are very strange times we are living through. Our government seems to have no concerns for the massive (incomprehensibly massive) debt. The only answer can be that they expect massive inflation soon and the "size" of the economy to balloon, making the debt look "normal"... as we all pay ten-fold or worse for the things we buy.
How this plays out affects every ERHC shareholder. In fact, it will affect everyone in the world.
Please don't lecture me on any negative connotations in *my* words. LOL!
"just a presentation of assets and a few short term time lines! And not something like over the next 3-5 years we hope to be drilling for oil"
They can't promise short time lines. You know that. If the were to promise something in 6 months and they miss, there would be a loud cry of foul, and their nationality, family name, and integrity would be brought into question.
That has been happening for years now. They have been driven into a more defensive posture by the crucifiction of the message board community.