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MHYS
After so many charts and evaluations on your FNMA stock. I should try to summarize charting in general and FNMA action spicifically.
We started with short term charting, The single bottom bounce or down channel. Then I posted a mid term chart, to support short term and now I posted long term for more support.
When charting always use the latest short term chart first. Then depend on the mid term for decision assistance and last use the long term.
Gave up on the short term channel bottom bounce when lower trend line broke down.
I haven't given up on 2.95 as bottom yet. Because the mid term chart showed a strong resistance level at 3 bucks. Still a good chance that will prevail.
If mid term resistance falls also next hope for a come back is long term target.
What your looking for if the 2.90/3.10 basing bottom fails is a new 2.70 stall/basing area. Which may become the bottom we wanted right now. At every target reached, you want basing and reversal or continuation. Depending on it being a positive or negative pattern your trading. The stall/basing is the time it takes retail to decide what next. Usually lasts 3 days to a week. That's when you can only watch. Because there is no next pattern to help.
Actually all a technical analyst can expect is target being reached and maybe a stall or basing at any chart pattern target. What happens after is up to retail. You have to take one pattern at a time. Until a new pattern is seen, there's no help in price projections chart wise.
Think of a chart pattern like this.
You trust me and I tell you I'm going to move to New York. I move to New York. What will I do next? you don't know until I tell you.
Oh yea here's the long term chart heads & shoulders eval.
Actually just spent a few minutes on a long term, investors chart and have come up with a Heads & Shoulders pattern target of $2.70. If this basing area doesn't hold, I'd expect the $2.70 area as a long term bottom. Not the 2.45 gap.
I'm not saying the short term basing area we discussed has ended with todays move. 2.90 to 3.10 area, could still hold and be that bottom hoped for. On the 2.95 mid term channel pattern break down target being reached. But if todays move south continues, on increasing volume tomorrow, I'd expect $2.70 next.
And if 2.70 is true bottom. It's to late for my get even plan to help now. At any rate keep that post in your back pocket for the next time.
Good luck
What can one say. Other then the longer one waits to take a loss, the larger it gets. Capital preservation is as important as gain. Waiting for come backs can kill. And if a come back does come. My get even plan, works great.
If one doesn't feel the loss is large enough to worry about yet, then fine. It's their money. But if one is worried, it's time to choose; dump or activate a get even plan. IMO
OK
It's time to talk capital preservation.
When NOT selling at a planed expectable loss figure. You can easily become what is known as a bag holder. Your at a 50% loss or more. That's when to conceder a get even plan.
First you have to mentally write off the total value of the trade. Or take the large loss ASAP. Because if your swing trade became a long hold mentally, you already wrote it off in your mind as dead money. Which you will not touch until it corrects to a break even or new expectable loss point, in the far future.
It's dead money!
Now that I have all the mind options out. Let's work on a come back plan. When a stock increases it produces larger gains then the losses on the way down. MATH!
So if you let your total investment sit, you are not increasing your returns, on any reversal. If you run the number and choose a percentage your comfortable with, you can make back what was lost faster. Sell 25% or 50% or 75% Run the numbers and pick a plan.
EX:
$1k in a $1.00 stock for 1000 shares.
The price falls to 50 cents for a 50% loss.
Sell half and hold 500 shares at 50 cents and $250 cash.
Say a reversal comes @ .25, buy back low with the cash taken out, $250.
Now you hold 500 share @ .50 and 1000 @ .25. It runs to .50 and you hold 500 @ .50 down (50% still) and 1000 @ .50 for a $250 double or $500. Your total of $750 if sold. $250 + $500 Is a 25% loss OK? sell all. Many times I'd sell have here.
You don't sell
If it continues up to .75 now you hold 500 @ .75 and 1000 @ .75
for $375 + $750 = $1,125 or a $125 profit.
And the price hasn't event reached you $1.00 break even, if you held from your 50% original loss.
By selling and holding cash to reinvest you can re-coop your loss faster!!! Or reach a new expectable loss figure sooner.
Food for thought.
I wouldn't put anything into that Nov gap still open. It was a runaway gap, true. But wasn't very large. And yes gaps need candle body fills, not candle tails. Great that your learning this stuff and applying it to charts you have interest it.
But you need to remember charts imply & project. Human though & action is behind this. Gaps are emotion driven and thus humans correct error in emotion.
ENCR
From under my tin foil hat.
Someone just wash traded a fall the last half hour of trading at ENCR. They bought a 100k @ .275 and sold it at .27 & .26. After 36k shares trading all day.
Now I'm really interested in what happens tomorrow. LOL
Pennyland
Closed SIAF gap open for another 7%. (.84 to .91) Glad I did, @ .84 now. Hate large gap open emotion, signals exhaustion. Third time trading this one, I'm done there now. Third times a charm thing, total 27% banked. (15,5,& 7%)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIAF&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p00749265217
Holding ELRA, sell finger on the trigger with 2 high candle spikes and volume halved today.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ELRA&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p54533284119
Standing buy closed at MHYS today @ .0008.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MHYS&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p60519004931
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ENCR HEADS UP I moved my standing buy from .35, top resistance to .30, first resistance. Changing play from chart play to TIP play. This decision deserves an explanation.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ENCR&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p58343794603
This one is a working TIP. Haven't seen the theory work enough to completely trust it yet. But it has worked several times so far.
Theory;
When a run holds at or above FIBs 50% a week, second week produces new run.
The theory is based on phycology will follow sentiment after 1 week. So if a run hasn't broken down after the first week, investors will generate a new positive feeling of safely and start moving in again. Remember traders sentiment got the price pop. Investors invest in the up trend phycology.
We'll see.
This one, the TA isn't what I like and the theory has been used on big board stocks so far. But this is a free trading OTC, with a single bottom bounce. Acting just like a big board stock.
CMGO chart eval
IMO the chart looks like a little guy day trader, with average daily volume at 250k X say .02, when the cup was working, is only $5,000 a day being traded, average. Since one should not trade more the 10% of the average daily volume, that's 25k shares for a $500 trade @ the 2 cent level. With an average daily price flux of 15 to 20%, one could expect $75 profits on up days and $75 losses on down days - round trip trade fees. Not a bad place for a little guy, that knows how to day trade, to go to work each week. If you can pull in 2 15% wins a week that's $150 bucks on a $500 risk.
It's all in the numbers and day trading skill.
Did some quick research on the company and it looks like the company operation and management is working it like a private company. Just earning a living from the present business. This is supported by both low trading volumes involved and the fact it hasn't had any funding dilution for some time. So it's a successful ongoing small business, with little desire/need or both, for growth funding. So IMO it's not a good candidate for swing trading. And since the 2 year chart shows the present .03 target, as a 2 yr high area, I wouldn't consider investing long at this point either. Buy low, sell high, thing.
Chart wise again; you need a long term perspective to evaluate the companies stock. No short term trading pattern. The long term technicals call for the resent move north to stall at .03 and possible retrace on investors. The problem is with such a small retail following, I doubt any investor could get any large sized position sold at .03 highs.
Technically, I will stress my doubt the price breaks .03. As the strongest resistance point for most all charts is at a reversal point or a point price has touched 5 times. And this charts resistance level has both.
Good luck with what ever your doing. I have no idea what that is though.
Just went through some videos at the sub section videos if found years ago, about start up companies.
If you watch nothing else and are interested in OTC start ups. Watch these two. Remember this info is about non darkside action.
http://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/core-finance/stock-and-bonds/venture-capital-and-capital-markets/v/getting-a-seed-round-from-a-vc
http://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/core-finance/stock-and-bonds/venture-capital-and-capital-markets/v/going-back-to-the-till-series-b
I think after watching these, many will stop cheering and start understanding, what's happening between the value of PRs vs. funding. At least which is important to company success, not stock trading success. PRs entice interest and funding promotes growth. Dilution is GOOD. Stories useless.
"Knowledge is the first step of enlightenment"
Couldn't find it.
http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/enlightenment
So claimed it. LOL
https://www.goodreads.com/search?q=%22Knowledge+is+the+first+step+of+enlightenment%22&search%5Bsource%5D=goodreads&search_type=quotes&tab=quotes
Wow having trouble with my internet. Have lost connection twice at the end of 2 long posts and lost them both. DAAA saving this time along the way. But this one is going to be shorter.
Just had a PM question I'm taking to the board, because the answer covers a good subject I haven't covered lately. Share structure of a start up company. I started before posting about business structure of a start up. Which was long and ended with posting the answer of this question;
What's the best A/S and or OS of an OTC company to trade?
Lets reverse things, this time. Answer question first, back ground last.
Basic, simple and clean;
It doesn't matter what the A/S and or OS is for trading an OTC stock; IMO. Just like the girls say, size doesn't matter, it's how one uses it.
What matters is the new issued ratio to the OS, seen in any dilution. Because the larger the ratio, the longer the price runs. And the increase in Authorized signals the expectation for future funding shares being issued by the company. The main OTC game requirement. New shares in big guys hands for sale.
I'd trade a stock with an A/S of 5 bil and OS of 2.5 bil, just as quick as one with an A/S of 100 mi and OS of 10 mil. With one caveat; Low float OTC stocks pop larger, then big board stocks.
Because the OTC market has Market Maker middle men and the big boards have most orders close electronically. Market Makers can front trade, the two tier OTC trading platform. Naked shorting fast moving emotion runs. Electronic trading can't. (Don't want to get into black pools and specialists, at the big board) But, M&Ms can sell shares they don't own, into a low supply run, feeding/creating buying emotion, for large volume trade fees. Then cover/settle days later, during the retrace. That's why you often see close to, or the entire OS, trade in a day, at the OTC. Thus the fact of share premium restrictions of low floats stock supply/demand at the big boards, is not holding back emotion buying at the OTC.
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Now for the VERY important back ground info every trader and investor should know. I can't stress enough, how important I feel the info in the following video education links is !!!
"Knowledge is the first step of enlightenment" That just popped into my head. I don't think I've heard it before, but I like it. Have to Google it, to see if I can claim the quote. LOL
The point I was leading to, before that mind burst, was all sections and sub sections at Khan Academy "Finance & Capital Markets" educational section. Should be read and understood by every trader/investor that expects to be successful. To aid with the ability to evaluate big board stocks. You got to know the basics, to be able to evaluate what's happening or may happen at the market correctly. Just like knowing the rules for any sport you watch on TV. Cheering is far from understanding. Humm, I like that one also. LOL Kind of fits the average pennylander.
And Specifically the sub-section on how start ups, start and grow in "Life of a company, from birth to death" for OTC business back ground knowledge.
"Finance & Capital Markets"
http://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/core-finance/stock-and-bonds
"Life of a company, from birth to death"
http://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/core-finance/stock-and-bonds/venture-capital-and-capital-markets/v/raising-money-for-a-startup
Happy studying.
Nice web sites cost money, not generates revenue's. I see nothing in the chart indicating any darkside play setup yet.
Thanks for the heads up, but I don't see anything interesting. Check for any funding talks. Then it may become interesting.
Never believe the PR story, trade retail reaction to it !
The chart is projecting triple zero.
ASTM
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ASTM&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p82142315288
Good luck! IMO very high risk buying single bottom chart pattern before 1st resistance is broken. Especially on a Bio that just tripled the OS, with 15 mil dilution. (8 to 23 mil) And has a long term descending triangle that just broke south. http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ASTM New investors should think the $2.55 offering price is the high, not the low, when the EPS went from -4.30 to -12.90.
Look what happened to the volume Sept 11th when they announced the public offering price. 2.5 mil of the 8 mil OS dumped out.
Caution
Ok FAS/FAZ this week up 7.5%
1.5 tues
1.5 wens
3 thur
-.5 fri morning
+2 firday
Love'n the indecision.
Thanks
Nice find wish you success
Sorry I missed your post yesterday, but not much more to say then in my last chart post. Looks like FNMA isn't going to move into the higher risk entry area yet. That's why I called that entry area high risk. It did fill the 1st gap above though. Keep watching. Still basing.
Last chart post
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=106580309&txt2find=fnma
Chart now
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FNMA&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p88932580816
ELRA
Been re-watching it since July, no volume price spike. Many got caught it the AUG attention pop I think.
The volumes a few day ago may indicate some fire behind the smoke.
At any rate I'm trading the "retail reaction to the news". Not the Sept 22 & 23 news. Actually missed that pop. This is my first time in.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ELRA&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p78756576931
Pennyland
Yep standing re-entry orders closed at ELRA yesterday, in @ .0045 out on red day after exhaustion candle. Also closed SIAF re-entry today @ .84, same exit strategy.
Big board
Got a surprise at open when S&P futures fall, bounced up at open. Playing FAS now, after closing FAZ for small loss during rush hour. +/- 2% so far including -.5% wrong entry loss.
Thanks for the heads up at ELRA
Any one interested in The market and what has been happening at the S&P? Or specifically happened today, at the market.
This one may become long, as I will be covering several things. Including sentiment/phycology, technicals, fundamentals, and teach about a little followed chart pattern. The expanding triangle. And why it's little followed.
------------------------------------------- No doubt now, after a proof read, it became long! But could have been longer. Hope some take something away from my babble.
I'll start with a little "waste your time" comments.
Turned on the computer to check my portfolio yesterday and everything was up strongly. Turned on CNBC to see "WHY" and the talking heads were rehashing every positive, about the longer term investor phycology.
Turned on my computer to check today and everything was strong down. Back to CNBC to find "WHY" and the talking heads were making chit up, to explain todays complete short term sentiment reversal from what they said yesterday.
LOL Have no idea why I waste my time checking what I call the big boards; message board. (CNBC or any financial TV station) I don't follow OTC message boards, why check the TV expecting actual facts other then opinions. Worst yet opinions which change like the weather.
At any rate habits are hard to change. I know this, but always end up looking for "why" where I know I won't find the answer. LOL
Ok here's why I'm wasting your time posting about that. I'm an individual trader and determine my opinion on my own evaluations eventually. Making sense of the S&P takes work and time. Which I just spent the last hour doing. But can't seem to kick a bad habit and check CNBC as a knee jerk reaction to surprise. Just wanted you guys to know I understand why it's so hard to stay away from message boards. Shees.
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Now to my technical market up date; obviously the "V" bottom continuation, I've been hoping for, has officially failed this Monday. When the throwback break didn't keep going.
The chart pattern which followed is one few Technical Annalist use. It's been a subject of argument for years. Does it exist or doesn't it. Well obviously the pattern exists, but can an annalist use it to aid with trading decisions. There are 2 camps, the most excepted one says the expanding triangle is a reversal pattern, found at trending tops or bottoms. The other feels it's a continuation pattern, depending on prior trend only. Just like the symmetrical triangle.
Right now the S&P has formed an expanding triangle. Seen in dark blue. The question is, which camp should I decide to follow, the reversal or continuation camp. LOL
Expanding triangle pattern
So now it's time to teach how I use this pattern.
Reversal at tops & bottoms camp
Continuation prior trend camp
Both these chart examples are for upside eval. Reverse for downside eval.
Notice the reversal camp chart shows a reversal mid way to next trend line. And the continuation shows a double tap before continuation. I found this difference is the key. Expect a reversal, if you see a mid term reversal in price direction. And expect a continuation, if you see a double tap at trend line.
Note the black word "kicker" in the chart which made me choose reversal.
So the above S&P chart is calling for a reversal.
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That covers the technical end of this market evaluation. Now to sentiment/phycology;
Remember I say sentiment is short term and phycology longer term. Sentiment drives what happens tomorrow and phycology drives what happens next week. Sentiment is news driven and phycology is fundamentals driven. Or trade vs. invest.
Market sentiment has been in a state of flux the past several weeks. With a phycology of up trend based on market fundamentals. Presently the S&P earning stands 6.5% above last years Q and the P/E ratio is 16. Average S&P P/E being 15, so plenty of room for improvement on good earnings this Q.
So market fundamentals are positive, calling for continuation.
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Now I'll post about now non-factual things can effect the markets phycology. Meaning over 2 years without a correction. We've had 6 retraces from 3 to 5%, but not 1, long over due, correction of 10% or more. Big guys are crying for a correction. Mainly because institutional & hedge funds can't come close to the S&P performance wise. So their excuse is we need a correction, this isn't a normal market. So for the last 2 years every time the 50MA is touched, their emotion caused over reactions seen in the short term chart sentiment. Which gets bought, because of positive phycology.
The expanding triangle is a perfect example of what is called a market hysteria reaction. Or should I say over reaction. That's what the first part of this post is all about. Yesterday large up day, today large down day. And the unanswered question was "WHY" ?
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Specifically happened today.
The expanding triangle nickname is the answer to todays market action. Big guy non performance Hysteria, not FED statements, or global turmoil, or over due correction, or any other thing other then big money is scared they get caught in the over due correction and have even worst performance for their rich clients, While retail investors are positive on continued positive earnings and free money from the FED, buying every dip before correction. IMO
So lets rap this up;
IMO
Time to trade FAS/FAZ, I started Tuesday, after Mondays cause of the "V" bottom failure. Had 2 nice trades based on the S&P futures premarket direction. As the big guys change their minds every day. Causing the markets instability for a while. Event with the negative expanding triangle chart. I don't feel sentiment hysteria will over power philological continuation for a 10% correction, with positive market fundamentals. At worst, we may see another 4% buying op dip to chart pattern target of 1930.
Chart shows short term hysteria fear, fundamentals show long term continuation phycology. Short term FAS/FAZ seems a logical place to be. While the knuckle heads, talking heads, and big guys, play instability for a while. When trend comes back in a few weeks, I'll start stock picking again. But IMO, till new trend, the shifting wind could produce many 97% of 500 S&P stocks to shift up or down daily on emotions. Just like the last two days.
And that opinion is completely based on the fact there is now a expanding triangle pattern, saying market indecision to hysterical levels. The only thing mathematicians can agree about a inverse symmetrical triangle is it implies hysteria in the stock seen with it. And the FAS/FAZ 3x ETF is great for day trading hysteria.
Need to watch pre market S&P 500 futures and buy the open, depending on pre market direction. FAS up or FAZ down. This can be very lucrative if you get good at it. Because during large price swings, you can make 2 - 3% a day, instead of 2 -3% per week swing trading.
MHYS up date
I had it on watch, and still on watch, only. But want to heads up the board now.
OK now I'll really agree, possible darkside play ahead. But 146 posts from 9/9 to 9/24, scary message board involvement my friend !
Yesterdays Proxy Statement opens up a whole new ball of wax. The recent 429 mil dilution; from July 57 mil, to Sept 487 mil, could have been traded in the new price pop (come to life) action, for double or triples. That Attention pop caused the weekly watch list for me though. Just checked it tonight again.
Obviously when management takes shares for salary, 185 mil Aug 8th (now 193 mil 40%), Union Capital picks up 75 mil Sept 15 15.5%, and the authorized is raised from 2 bil to 3 bil Sept 23 in Proxy Statement. When there is less the 500mil OS. Somebody has BIG PLANS.
Add the name dropping of Lionsgate and DeNiro in the Proxy Statement (story line set up), name change from Mass Hysteria to ReMark Pictures and it's looking worth watching, more then a week ago. It's working on week 3, after the Attention pop. So a real run could come after any new funding, the A/S is calling for.
Remember one can expect a real run from 2 weeks to a month or so after the attention pop, TIP. Snookering a few shares in the triple zero area, may not be bad, now that management has signaled a huge dark funding dilution desire and name dropping future story line.
Oh, by the way ASHER dumped out, which is #13 I've seen.
But man 146 posts in 2 weeks? Crazy; When do you find time to eat, sleep, work, and socialize with the rest of the world? LOL
Just move (JCP) JC Penny; from watch to strong watch, again. It had an ascending triangle failure on some talking head blurbs. Which resulted in a gap below fill, instead of continuation breakout. Seems rumors and opinions are wafting away and sentiment is being set correct by previous investor phycology.
If the bear flag reaches 10.80 FIBs 61%, it will have failed and top resistance @ 11.20 may be broken after all. My play $10.80 to 11.20 for 5%. Was watching for ascending triangle play originally.
Love to see more volume. Adds comfort.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JCP&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p36988145118
Bullish single bottom, yes
OTC day trading TIP post;
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=105994871&txt2find=day|trading
Humm I just checked the time & sales and the last 10 minutes of day trading shows 90% of closes were above ask. A perfect example of a subject I posted about recently, on buying a strong move while day trading. Seems there were a lot of pro traders involved. Another positive sign .
Ps; $3.00 is long term support. A added positive for bounce.
FNMA
Starting to base 3 days in the $3 to 3.10 area after hitting 2.95 bottom target. Gaps above, 1st weak single bottom pattern resistance 3.45, stronger at 3.60 for entry. Note the last 3 days of basing volume halved each day. Saying retail sentiment is, bottom in, watch for phycology change.
Time to keep an eye on it.
With the gaps down, one could feel some safety entering this one before 1st resistance. Because if first gap emotion fills. Odds are second will. And momo could head it toward come back. The sentiment test will be 3.60 stronger reversal resistance level. If playing early, that's where I'd have my finger on the profit taking trigger and strong watch it for continuation after.
Incumbents: Fire them all!! VOTE
Kick some non functioning government ass !
Step out of the party line herd. Vote against who ever is now in office. Anyone new can't do worst then the legislators we have now!!
NPTN
Now I like that one thanks. Has mid term double bottom and long term single bottom bounce, for support of the short term flag. New up channel, may break before established 3rd bottom touch. That's when they usually pop, if their going to.. Strong Insiders buying at bottom. Small short interest for such a price fall. $4.00 short term target. Single bottom next resistance @ $4.20.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NPTN&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p15641257184
ELRA
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ELRA&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p27694896759
Definite take profits day, if you haven't. 1st red day following high exhaustion candle spike.
Protect those gains. Just like I did @ SIAF today. Learn to sell.
Note the volume. Dark master done selling.
The more you see something happen, the more you can rely on it !
Just closed SIAF re-entry at pennyland, on the after lunch pop on red day exhaustion signal for 5%. (.77 to .81) Total 20% now, back on strong watch.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIAF&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p82241810607