IMHO there will be close to zero warrant converting until N=50 Combo PE is announced. We will have our answer at that time by the impact on SP. There is simply no reason for converting at the current SP.

As to the timing of warrant expiration the vast majority have years of runway. As I have said I am a warrant holder and I have my first placement that will expire Oct. 2018. My two other placements have 3-4 years to run.

My gut feeling tells me the tender offer will be extended until a significant news event moves the SP to draw enough interest to convert. How long that door stays open will be a byproduct of how much money the company wants to raise through existing warrants and also how important it is to clean up warrants to uplist.

My question for Tony is why would the company announce a tender offer that expires Dec. 22 and not unblind the interim at 40 patients as most were expecting? (A17 is the only poster that I know of that was not caught by surprise). Thus the interim PE Combo was reduced to a non event. Was this the plan all along? If so why was it communicated so poorly? Is the thinking that they are so close to N=50 Combo PE why water it down with N=40 Interim Combo PE?

These events don’t change the science. They do however cause shareholders to question managements competence and forthright communication.

Predicting the next major correction is always a crap shoot. What we know is it will happen. As for Little CYDY it’s fate will be known in 2018 IMO.

So at $500 SP your placing the buyout at over $100 Billion. I’m a believer and a $5 Billion buyout is aggressive IMO. If things go well with Combo PE and Mono Interim Data we are out next summer at $2 - $3 Billion / $7-$10 per share pre split. I’d be thrilled and happy to be moving on as I think most would.

What is the biggest buyout in history by BP?

LMAO

“How much are you benching these days, by the way?”

We may need verification on this answer.

Couldn’t agree more Gestalt.

I don’t know how you have the patience to deal with Fred. He’s become as redundant as Pears.

IMO BL I think those holding warrants over the $1 level are considering and may convert prior to Dec. 22. However the majority are at .75 and personally I will wait until N=50 complete Combo PE is officially met to consider converting at that price point. I do believe the company will extend until that news event and have a quick trigger on pulling the offer if SP goes above $1. IMO the company would be wise to flush all warrants if news could drive SP to a level that would create that opportunity regardless of how high the SP runs.

I think the big tell will be if the likes of Tony or Dockery convert. Dockery has millions of warrants and Tony has 666k. That would be a reason for every warrant holder to think seriously.

I addressed your question in my reply to Fred’s post. When all is digested I think A17 is on the money.

Fred the Tender Offer was announced to encourage warrant holders to revisit their position. The Dec. 22 date was set because they didn’t want the offer to be open ended. They will IMO extend the date to at least the PR on N=50 Combo PE. My guess is that will hit the street the middle of January. As for your concern that the company will go BK that is simply not going to happen any time soon.

Thank you for your insight A17. Your comments add up.

The way I read the PR is that CYDY made the decision to stay blinded to the Interim Data because if the results were not positive they would have to PR the results. This way they wait until the Trial is complete for PE and have a definitive result - either PE was achieved or not.

My question is why did the company not make this clear on the October CC in which they said interim data would be released in 4-6 weeks. All this PR says is Pro-140 has the POWER to meet PE with the additional 10 patients.

All IMHO. I will be interested in how others view this.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/independent-data-monitoring-committee-recommends-110000062.html

12 of the 40 patients were taken out of the trial because they were improperly screened and hence should not have been in the study to begin with.

My understanding is 70% success rate is required in the Mono Trial to pass go without further trials. That is where the FDA has set the bar. That is why the company is doubling the dosage in the patients that rebound. The interesting part is past trials are right on the 70% range. Company thinking is the dosage increase where needed will provide the cushion to get over the hump. They also know 8 weeks of viral load suppression on Pro-140 is the magic number as patients that make it past 8 weeks continue without rebound or a need to increase dosage. Pro-140 is highly efficacious but obviously not 100% but it doesn’t need to be to be worth $ Billions - 70% or higher is the magic number. The critical Mono Interim Data is the key if it appears 70% will be achieved - Logic would say BP would move long before the conclusion.

Yes hopefully we will be given a reason to soon.

I obviously don’t want to see this drag on either. Should get PR any day. It will be 3am for me.

Remember the company reserves the right to extend the Dec. 22 date at their discretion. I received the paperwork on the details of the Tender Offer last Friday.

IMO they do not have the Interim PE data computation completed so hence no PR yet. It would certainly ease tension if they would communicate with shareholders as to the status but that has never been their thinking. I don’t think there is anything to be alarmed about - results should be announced this week or next at the latest.

Now that’s good Trding- I need to pay attention to the year.

Great Post Woodenbear. I agree with most of what you have stated. Believe me I am constantly reviewing the status of this investment with the limited resources I have access to and agree that not everything is black and white, and as investors we should be critical of management. It may not sound like it but I am as critical as anyone.

Pears, if you have the mental capacity to stay in to the finish line you will find that all your complaining and fearful mindset was such a waste of time as the delays mattered little when you cash out. A win is a win is a win. Take the Scrooge hat off and enjoy the ride.

TechG, we will have our answers very soon, IMO most likely next week but no later than the following week.

IMHO the beast will be released as it’s all lining up. Unfortunately we don’t have a seat at the inner table to help maintain clear perception of the reality of where we are. My perception has never been more bullish. Patience and rational thinking is the only way to the finish line. Stay the course.

I think the Tender Offer announced on Friday got everyone stoked for a PR the beginning of the week (myself included) because it made strategic sense. My thought is if they had the data completed on Interim they would have PR'd on Monday as they would not withhold the results. The only logical explanation is the results are not yet available but will be very soon. Is a week going to change anything, I think not.

I am wondering if they are waiting to confirm 50 enrolled - they must be very close. It may be that they want to be able to announce complete enrolment at the same time as Interim PE rather than leaving that as a question mark. With the short window to covert warrants at .50 they would have to be mindless to go much longer without releasing Interim PE. They will raise nada without a significant uptick in SP.

Great observation Pennies, things are not always as they seem. So many variables that we as shareholders on the outside don’t have access to. Some here think we are being lead blindly with incompetence. There is reasoning behind every move to maximize shareholder value for the end game. Pleasing investors in the short run is not a priority, nor should it be.

No insider confirmation, just a strong feeling given all the info. We are different Pears. I read the tea leaves one way and you read them another. It really won’t matter one way or another as long as we stay long.

Pears, if anyone is sophomoric it is you. Do you really think it matters what day the news is released this week or that there may be a logical reason? Do you know everything that management is privy to? I would really be worried if you were running the show with your know it all attitude. The writing is on the wall, the 50 patients is a done deal as is this weeks interim Combo PE and perhaps more.

There are two factors working with and against each other over the next 30 days and the outcome is unknown.

To begin with there is a high probability of multiple positive PR’s starting this week that should cause an upward movement in SP. In response it appears the company is making a play to capitalize by offering a 30 day window to convert warrants at 50 cents to raise cash.

-The question is what type of action, if any, will warrant holders take?

-Convert warrants and hold all their shares.
-Convert warrants and sell part of their position to cover their cost of converting warrants.
-Or will warrant holders for the most part take no action.

Right now the stage is set as we await the impact of meeting Interim PE on SP. Obviously the larger the spike and rise in SP the more movement there will be by warrant holders to convert.

IMO it will be more of what we have been subject to in the past. A tug of war between positive news and the impact of warrants. The positive here is to flush out as many warrants as possible while raising cash for the company. Logic would say the more momentum the SP can gain the more warrant converting we will see. What will it take in terms of SP to induce converting the .75 warrants which is where the majority are priced.

At the end of the day it will come down to how valuable is meeting Combo PE viewed by the market. If this is an event that is viewed as a major derisking of Pro-140 to a success at some level, ie $500 million valuation or $2 per share then there will be heavy warrant converting and very little selling to hedge. If not then we will see the opposite.

IMO any way you cut it we are going to get positive news and cash raised at some level while eliminating warrants.

All relevant points BD. I personally have three sets of warrants and the only ones I am considering are the those at $1.35. The majority I control are at .75 or less and there is no way I’m going to convert now at .50. I’ve got enough skin in the game and saving .15-.25 per warrant isn’t going to be a lot of money to me if this is a buyout. My hunch is Tony and his team knew that the only realistic opportunity to attract conversion was to price at .50.

As far as news you may be right about Monday. I’ll give a little more room and say there is nearly 100% chance we get news this coming week.

The only way to entice warrant holders to convert is to reduce the price enough for it to make economic sense. Lowering the bar to 50 cents should provide enough cushion between the increase in SP on good news and the one month .50 warrant sale. Any higher and I think most warrant holders would pass. It will be interesting to see how many that hold warrants at .75 will convert. Those that have warrants at 1.00-1.35 will be more enticed as the math makes it difficult to resist. The reason I think this is such a wise move by the company is they have created an opportunity to raise money on warrants that would have otherwise been held until a buyout when there is no need to raise cash. The question now is how much will this offer raise? This unexpected move could turn out to be genius.

BD, Absolutely correct. Company is going to PR positive news and they know no one is going to convert warrants unless they have a distinct advantage to do so. The Warrants are dead until buyout but this offer makes perfect sense given the short window. This is simple math. While the majority of warrants are at .75 there are warrants out there all the way up to $1.35. This will be interesting. IMO a very wise move by the company.

Fact is an offer is public information as Gestalt pointed out. In addition the major banks that play in the biotech space get the word out as well. Companies that have something to gain or lose with a mover have their intel.

There are cases where even when binding deals are struck they are broken in favor of a better offer. This results in a “Termination Fee”. Per a recent example in which Dimensions (DMTX)passed on a deal that they struck with Regenex Bio (RGNX) in favor of a better offer from Ultragenyx. They accepted an offer for $5.50 per share vs. the previous offer of $3.41 per share. It was well worth the $2.85 million Termination Fee. This was a 358% premium.

I would recommend placing a phone call to the company and shaking some branches if you really want to know. Beats the hell out of speculating.

There are a few investors here that have lost faith in managements ability to move Pro-140 across the finish line because of past delays. They feel it will be a slow drain and the science will be tossed in a ditch. Consequently they have turned negative. I’m the first to be disappointed in the length of time it has taken to progress to this point. However much more important is the reality of why it has taken this long, where we are right now, and what we can expect in 2018. We are not being led blindly by incompetent management, quite the contrary. I’m with you Inoviorulez.

It only takes one mover to turn this into a bidding war. That’s why I have repeatedly said Gilead will not move first. They will however move to protect their HIV space by keeping the science from a competitor. The only scenario where you are correct is if NO company sees value in Pro-140. Your thesis is that there is a strong possibility no one will show interest leaving all of us as bag holders. IMO it is far more likely that there will be one suitor that will see value and that will create multiple suitors. I don’t see this as a zero interest or one suitor event. It’s either zero or multiple suitors- nothing in between and zero interest is highly unlikely.

Pears, I don’t think you understand how cumbersome it was to identify patients that qualified for the six week screening process and then once qualified decide to participate. This was a ridiculous trial to enroll given the the initial protocol and it took jumping through all the hoops to identify and validate the initial protocol barriers to the FDA. A process that couldn’t be avoided. That is why the trial was cut from 300 to 150 to 30 and then upped to 50 for Safety. The FDA agreed because CYDY’s KOL’s were able to get the point across. The company wanted nothing to do with this Combo Trial but was told by the FDA if you want a shot at Mono you have to do the Combo first but we will allow a Mono Trial in tandem. So there you have it - what appears to be incompetent management in regards to the Combo Trial is far from the real story. Unfortunately this time eating process has handicapped CYDY financially with limited resources to open additional sites to expedite both trials.

Statement not fact.

They don’t want to waste this type of PR on a holiday week. Next week is the week.

“I have seen much of this type of Micro non partnered scenario too many times before.”

Pears, please show me all the non partnered scenarios of micros that made it through successful P3 trials that went by the wayside. Pro-140 is on the brink of a successful P3. Obviously the game changer is the P3 Mono and it has a great shot at exceeding the benchmarks set up in the protocol. You chirp like we have nothing here of value.

I also believe you are off the mark with this statement as well.

“Bottom line, if there is no BO soon, both HIV and GvHD will become a Cytodyne moot point. For now, PE data has to be extremely compelling and game changing.”

I have spoken to the company about this very point. Pro 140 either meets PE or it does not. By how much or how little is of minor consequence. As for GvHD why would Dr. Burger state in the last conference call that they have had several discussions regarding partnerships.

Your opinions are based on fear not facts.

Bobby, yes there are many requirements and hoops to jump through to successfully uplist to the Nasdaq.

The point is management is not counting on a buyout if/when PE is achieved although it is quite possible. They have to have a plan in place that will create more exposure and availability to a wider market that is able to invest if there are no suitors willing to step up. This is a chess match and Tony is no fool. He is not going to count on anything except pushing the envelope by exposing the power of the science through advancing the clinical trials. He’s an ex Gilead guy that understands BP. Many speculate that meeting Combo PE solidifies a buyout. Tony and his team would be ignorant to assume this is a done deal especially if their responsibility is to maximize shareholder ROI. Things are finally going to get very interesting as the data is revealed and FDA approval becomes more likely than not for Combo and dare I say Mono.